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### Viewing cable 06PANAMA1124, POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCES OF NORIEGA'S RETURN TO PANAMA

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06PANAMA1124 | 2006-06-09 22:26 | 2011-05-31 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Panama

`

    VZCZCXYZ0000
    RR RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHZP #1124/01 1602226
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    R 092226Z JUN 06
    FM AMEMBASSY PANAMA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8251
    INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
    RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
    RUEKJCS/OSD WASHDC
    RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL//J5/J2/POLAD//

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 001124

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN
    SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/08/2016
    TAGS: PGOV PREL PM
    SUBJECT: POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCES OF NORIEGA'S RETURN TO PANAMA

    REF: PANAMA 0919

    Classified By: AMBASSADOR WILLIAM EATON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).

    SUMMARY
    -------

    ¶1.  (C) As Manuel Noriega's fall 2007 release from prison
    draws closer, Embassy consensus is that Noriega's extradition
    to Panama could lead to political instability and unrest.
    Alternatively, his extradition to France may actually further
    U.S. relations with the GOP, although the USG will need a
    public relations strategy to counter negative public
    reaction.  END SUMMARY.

    Consequences of Noriega's extradition to Panama
    --------------------------------------------- --

    ¶2.  (C) The likely fallout from Noriega's extradition to
    Panama is political turmoil.  The GOP would face opposing
    pressures: from the Panamanian people and international
    community to handle the case properly and from former Noriega
    cronies who are now part of the government and in a position
    to help their former boss. (See Reftel.)  Noriega's
    reappearance could polarize the country by opening old wounds
    within the society.  The infighting and unrest within the PRD
    could be extremely divisive and destabilizing.  At best,
    Noriega's presence here would be an enormous and possibly
    costly distraction.

    ¶3.  (C) If Noriega returned to Panama, he could also regain
    access to his suspected stash of money and other resources.
    Authorities recovered only a fraction of his alleged wealth
    upon his arrest, and the potential implications of Noriega's
    refound financial power are troubling.  With access to his
    funds restored, Noriega could pay for an expensive defense,
    potentially bribe his way free, or bankroll activities to
    support his former allies or create further mischief.

    ¶4.  (C) Further, the Panamanian judicial system may lack the
    maturity and good governance to handle such a case.  Negative
    consequences from potential malfeasance or corruption in the
    judicial process would be further divisions and unrest.
    Those most likely to benefit from instability are the radical
    trade unionists who could use Noriega's extradition as a
    chance to advocate violence and fuel their anti-U.S. rhetoric.

    GOP distancing itself from Noriega case
    ---------------------------------------

    ¶5.  (C) Given the volatile nature of the Noriega case, the
    GOP does not want him to return to Panama.  Its hands full
    with the Canal expansion referendum and other issues, the GOP
    lacks the time, resources, and political will to deal with a
    huge distraction like Noriega's potential extradition that
    would divert media and public attention for months from its
    preferred projects.  Nor does the GOP want to face the
    resulting public scrutiny over its handling of the
    proceedings or the costs.

    ¶6.  (C) On the other hand, the GOP cannot admit its
    reluctance now that the public is aware of the previous
    extradition requests.  President Torrijos has repeatedly said
    the Noriega case is a judicial and not a political issue,
    effectively giving judicial authorities the lead on the case
    and washing the GOP,s hands of the matter.  When asked about
    the case in a March 2006 radio interview, Torrijos refused to
    discuss the Noriega extradition beyond repeating that "this
    is a judicial issue" and that it was up to the judicial
    branch to decide what to do.

    What do the Panamanian people want?
    -----------------------------------

    ¶7.  (SBU) The general public apparently does not have strong
    feelings on the case, although the majority of Panamanians
    probably want Noriega to face justice in Panama.  That
    majority includes those directly affected by the Noriega
    dictatorship, human rights activists, and civil society
    groups.  A May 2006 Cid-Gallup poll showed 76% of respondents
    wanted Noriega judged in Panama, while 13% wanted him
    pardoned and 11% did not have a opinion.  Because the French
    extradition request is not public knowledge, the poll did not
    measure willingness to have Noriega judged by a third
    country.  However, the preference to have Noriega judged in
    Panama is tempered by the public's mistrust of the Panamanian
    justice system.

    If Noriega Goes to France
    -------------------------

    ¶8.  (C) If Noriega is extradited to France, the U.S. would
    face public criticism in Panama.  Noriega's extradition to
    another country would be a clear vote of no confidence in the
    Panamanian judicial system.  While this could serve as a
    positive shock to the system, it will also prompt backlash.

    ¶9.  (C) The GOP would echo any such outcry in public, but
    privately would be very relieved.  Noriega's extradition to
    France would give the GOP a convenient "out" by allowing it
    to maintain the public pretense of pushing for the
    extradition without having to suffer its consequences.  A
    U.S. decision for France is the most face-saving option for
    the GOP and could help improve bilateral relations in the
    long run.

    ¶10.  (C) Embassy believes that it would be best to inform the
    GOP once a decision on Noriega's extradition is close to
    being finalized.  This would also require local consultations
    with the French.  On the public level, the U.S. would have to
    be prepared to explain how Noriega,s extradition to France
    would serve the interests of justice.

    EATON

`