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### Viewing cable 07MANAGUA776, MARTINEZ CUENCA: GIVE THE ORTEGA GOVERNMENT A BIT

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07MANAGUA776 | 2007-03-22 23:14 | 2011-06-21 08:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Managua

`

    VZCZCXRO3087
    PP RUEHLMC
    DE RUEHMU #0776/01 0812314
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 222314Z MAR 07
    FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9583
    INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 1018
    RUMIAAA/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY
    RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHDC PRIORITY
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 000776

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    WHA/CEN, INR/I

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/22/2017
    TAGS: KDEM NU PGOV PINR PREL SNAR
    SUBJECT: MARTINEZ CUENCA: GIVE THE ORTEGA GOVERNMENT A BIT
    MORE TIME (C-AL7-00063)

    REF: A. SECSTATE 32361

         ¶B. MANAGUA 0745
         ¶C. MANAGUA 0726
         ¶D. MANAGUA 0242
         ¶E. 2006 MANAGUA 2077 AND PREVIOUS

    Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli.  Reasons 1.4 (B,D).

    ¶1.  (C) Summary:  Sandinista-dissident Alejandro Martinez
    Cuenca believes it is still too soon to assess the
    performance of the Ortega administration, but he is certain
    that Ortega's prime goal is to remain in power indefinitely
    while he leaves First Lady Rosario to run the government.  He
    is concerned that businesses are not restocking their
    inventories and consumers are limiting their spending.
    Martinez Cuenca is skeptical that Chavez will deliver on all
    of his promises to President Ortega, but worries that Chavez'
    influence over Ortega could eventually strain vital aspects
    of Nicaragua's relationship with the United States.  He
    suggests that CAFTA, the MCA, mil-mil relations, and police
    cooperation in combating crime are the four pillars of the
    Nicaraguan-U.S. relationship that bear nurturing and
    monitoring.  End Summary.

    Ortega Government: Give it Another Month
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶2.  (C) In his conversation with PolCouns and TDY analysts on
    March 21, Sandinista dissident Alejandro Martinez Cuenca
    remarked that it is too early to assess the performance of
    the Ortega administration and that most Nicaraguans are still
    willing to give Ortega the benefit of the doubt for another
    month.  According to Martinez Cuenca (Refs. D and E), some of
    the government's actions thus far are encouraging, including
    its emphasis on health and education -- even though it
    remains to be seen just how much will actually be
    accomplished.

    ¶3.  (C) Martinez Cuenca finds other trends disconcerting:
    Ortega's permitting "Mrs. Ortega" to run the government and
    the messy blur between party and state, as evidenced by the
    government's use of party headquarters for its presidential
    offices.  He added that the regime's hermetic style is such
    that even ministers must fight for access to Rosario and
    Ortega.  A vexed minister recently told him that after
    numerous failed attempts to reach Mrs. Ortega by phone to
    arrange a meeting with the President, he appeared at her
    doorstep.  The minister was ordered to leave the building and
    use his cell phone to call the First Lady.

    Keep on Eye on Business and Consumer Confidence
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶4.  (C) An economist, Martinez Cuenca, believes that both
    consumers and the private sector are maintaining a "wait and
    see" posture vis-a-vis the Ortega government.  He noted,
    however, two "alarming seeds" that could portend choppy
    economic waters ahead: an apparent decline in consumer
    spending and indications that businesses are not restocking
    their inventories -- preferring instead to deposit their
    profits in banks.

    And Watch out for U.S. Interests
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶5.  (C) Martinez Cuenca also frets that Venezuelan President
    Hugo Chavez' influence over Ortega will test and eventually
    strain vital aspects of Nicaragua's relationship with the
    United States.  Praising our policy not to be baited by
    Chavez' efforts to drive a wedge between the U.S. and
    Nicaragua, he listed CAFTA, the MCA, mil-mil relations, and
    police cooperation in combating crime as the four pillars of
    the Nicaraguan-U.S. relationship that bear particular
    nurturing and monitoring.  If the Nicaraguan government
    continues to cooperate in these four areas, the bilateral
    relationship will maintain reasonable equilibrium, opined
    Martinez Cuenca.  Nicaragua's Ambassador in Washington,
    Arturo Cruz, could serve as a useful ally in this regard, he
    said.

    The Master of Crossword Puzzles
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶6.  (C) Martinez Cuenca characterized Ortega as a changed
    man, perhaps due in part to health problems and medications,
    but certainly no longer the statesman of the 1980s.  Rather,
    Ortega is exclusively obsessed with remaining in power and
    leaves Mrs. Ortega to run the government so he can dedicate
    his energies to scheming against his internal and external
    rivals.  Martinez Cuenca likened Ortega to a master of
    crossword puzzles, endlessly recreating and completing a
    mono-thematic, power-based puzzle.

    ¶7.  (C) Regarding the ongoing debate over who exactly lies
    within Ortega government's "inner circle," Martinez Cuenca
    was unequivocal: the President and Mrs. Ortega.  He asserted
    that while other Sandinista militants exercise varying
    degrees of influence in the government, the two Ortegas are
    the only two who really count.  For example, Bayardo Arce, a
    pragmatist who harbors presidential ambitions and serves as
    Ortega's senior economic advisor, is out of favor with the
    First Lady, so he has lost his influence.  Indeed, the lack
    of access to the FSLN's two-person inner circle has created
    turmoil in the party, asserted Martinez Cuenca.

    ¶8.  (C) Referring to a meeting in January when he had
    predicted that President Ortega would not release Liberal
    Constitutional Party caudillo/convicted money launderer
    Arnoldo Aleman any time soon because he could still exploit
    him, Martinez Cuenca remarked that Ortega's recent decision
    (Ref. B) to accord Aleman unlimited movement throughout the
    country was likely driven by his keeniterest in keeping the
    liberals divided.  However, Ortega still holds the power to
    return Aleman to prison if it suits his interests, he argued.

    Media Coverage Favors Pact, Caudillismo, Hinders Opposition
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶9.  (C) Martinez Cuenca criticized the media's inclination to
    spotlight the activities of caudillos Ortega and Aleman to
    the detriment of opposition leaders like Eduardo Montealegre
    -- even media that supposedly opposes the Ortega-Aleman pact
    and questions Ortega's intentions.  He suggested that the
    opposition must gain more media coverage if it desires to
    increase its influence over public opinion.

    Rosario's Achilles Heel
    - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶10.  (C) Although Martinez Cuenca acknowledged that the First
    Lady is capable, intelligent, and organized, he ventured that
    her superstition handicaps her ability to effectively run the
    government.  He explained that despite government assertions
    that its decision not to occupy the Taiwan-donated
    presidential offices was to save costs, "everyone knows" that
    the First Lady's fears that the building is "haunted with bad
    spirits" drove the decision.  (Note: Aleman lost a son and
    two siblings during his tenure in the building, and Bolanos
    lost his brother and a son; his other son Javier just died of
    cancer last week.)

    Who's Behind the Wheel?
    - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶11.  (C) Martinez Cuenca believes it is no coincidence that
    Ortega ratchets up his anti-U.S. rhetoric surrounding his
    meetings with Chavez (Ref. C).  Notwithstanding the
    Ortega-Chavez camaraderie, in part driven by shared
    ideologies, in part by Ortega's reliance on Venezuelan aid,
    Martinez Cuenca suspects that Ortega is uncomfortable with
    playing second fiddle to Chavez.  He termed Chavez's piloting
    of Ortega's car during his latest visit to Managua a serious
    symbolic affront to the Nicaraguan leader's pride and
    authority because Ortega would never willingly permit anyone
    to take the wheel.  (Note: Newspapers featured a photo of
    Chavez behind the wheel of Ortega's Mercedes SUV with Ortega
    seated in the front passenger seat.  The incident also caught
    the eye of one of Nicaragua's political cartoonists who
    interpreted it to demonstrate Chavez's domination over the
    Nicaraguan president.)
    TRIVELLI

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