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### Viewing cable 06MEXICO3907, LOOKING FOR FRAUD IN ALL THE WRONG PLACES?

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06MEXICO3907 | 2006-07-14 18:01 | 2011-04-06 19:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Mexico
Appears in these articles: http://wikileaks.jornada.com.mx/notas/fe-ciega-de-washington-en-el-ife

`

    VZCZCXRO9440
    RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
    DE RUEHME #3907/01 1951801
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    R 141801Z JUL 06
    FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2159
    INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 1207
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
    RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
    RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
    RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
    RHMFISS/CDR USNORTHCOM
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

` `

    71437
    2006-07-14 18:01:00
    06MEXICO3907
    Embassy Mexico
    CONFIDENTIAL
    06MEXICO3834
    VZCZCXRO9440
    RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
    DE RUEHME #3907/01 1951801
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    R 141801Z JUL 06
    FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2159
    INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 1207
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
    RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
    RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
    RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
    RHMFISS/CDR USNORTHCOM
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
    TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL MX
    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MEXICO 003907

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/13/2016
    TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL MX
    SUBJECT: LOOKING FOR FRAUD IN ALL THE WRONG PLACES?
     REF: A. A) MEXICO 3834

         ¶B. B) MEXICO 3422

    Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL CHIEF ALAN MELTZER, REASONS: 1.4(B/D).

    ¶1.  (C) Summary:  In a July 12 meeting with poloffs,
    officials of the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) offered an
    impassioned defense of their work in conducting the July 2
    presidential elections.  Although they had not yet seen the
    specific complaints submitted by the PRD (or, for that
    matter, those of the PAN), they described in great detail the
    safeguards incorporated into IFE's election process, many of
    which were previously described at an SRE briefing for the
    diplomatic corps (ref A).  They refuted in detail several of
    the specific allegations of fraud or irregularities singled
    out by Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) in recent news
    conferences.  On July 13 we met with former IFE head Jose
    Woldenberg, who opined that the election appeared to have
    been conducted with complete transparency.  He doubted AMLO's
    allegations of widespread fraud, insisting that the dispute
    simply reflected the understandable frustration felt by the
    second place candidate in a very narrow race.  He predicted
    that the likeliest resolution would be that the electoral
    tribunal (TEPJF) would order a partial recount of ballots,
    and that he expected such a recount to confirm Calderon's
    victory.  Both contacts deeply lamented the damage that the
    allegations of fraud were doing to IFE's hard-won
    credibility.  End summary.

    ¶2.  (SBU) On July 12, poloffs met with IFE Counselor
    Alejandra Latapi and IFE Director for International Affairs
    Manuel Carrillo to discuss the most recent developments in
    the dispute over the results of the Mexican presidential
    election.   From the outset of our meeting, Latapi asserted
    that the election had been exemplary and that in several
    important respects, the electoral system functioned even more
    effectively this year than in previous years.  She noted, for
    example, that out of the over 130,000 precincts planned
    nationwide, all but 11 actually operated on Election Day,
    including every precinct planned for the conflictive state of
    Chiapas; in 2000, IFE was unable to set up 104 of the
    precincts planned nationwide.

    Seeking to Set the Record Straight
    ----------------------------------

    ¶3.  (SBU) In addition to detailing the considerable
    safeguards protecting virtually every step of the election
    process, she sought to refute several of the specific
    allegations raised by AMLO in recent press conferences.  She
    first sought to rebut AMLO's allegation, based upon a video
    he showed at a recent press conference, that ballot box
    stuffing had occurred in the state of Guanajuato.  She
    explained that the person seen in the video depositing
    multiple ballots in a ballot box -- who in fact was the
    precinct president -- was simply relocating to the correct
    box Chamber of Deputies ballots that inadvertently had been
    deposited in the presidential ballot box.  She noted that
    such an action was legal and that all of the party
    representatives -- including that of the PRD -- were aware of
    the action at the time and did not object.  (Note: AMLO
    subsequently asserted that the PRD precinct representative
    may have been bought off by the PAN, a charge strenuously
    denied by the 19 year old woman who volunteered as his
    representative in that precinct.  End note.)

    ¶4.  (SBU) As for AMLO's allegation that a discrepancy in the
    tally sheet of a ballot box in Queretaro cost him votes,
    Latapi said this discrepancy had been raised during the
    district retabulation, the ballot box had been opened, the
    votes recounted, and the discrepancy corrected.  She noted
    this was precisely the reason why the electoral law provided
    for a district retabulation, and was an example of the system
    working properly.  She also sought to refute an allegation of
    fraud in Coahuila, where the PRD identified a temporary IFE
    employee claiming to have been pressured to change vote
    tallies to Calderon's advantage, and to have seen Calderon's
    vote totals grow immediately after an alleged power outage.
    Latapi said that upon investigation, IFE found numerous
    contradictions in his story.  Rather than being hired as a
    "capturista" to enter vote totals in the IFE data base, as he
    had claimed, he had been hired for manual labor; in the early
    morning hours on election night, he was asked to briefly
    assist the district council by recording results being
    dictated for a second, unofficial vote tally.  Members of the

    MEXICO 00003907  002 OF 003

    district council, as well as representatives of four
    political parties, certified that he never had access to the
    official tally sheets and that there had been no power outage
    during the evening.

    ¶5.  (SBU) Finally, Latapi addressed the PRD's charge that IFE
    had improperly opened ballot boxes being stored under
    military guard in Tabasco, Puebla and Sonora.  She asserted
    that the electoral law did not preclude its reopening of
    these ballot boxes, that they were reopened (and later
    resealed) in the presence of the IFE district council and
    party representatives, and that IFE had ordered them to be
    opened because the PRD (and in some cases, the PAN) had
    requested copies of tally sheets and incident reports therein
    so as to be able to prepare its electoral challenge.  She
    emphasized that in no case did the district councils open the
    sealed envelopes containing the executed ballots.  (Note:
    Former IFE President Jose Woldenberg told poloff that
    although he believed IFE acted in good faith in opening the
    ballot boxes, IFE would have been well-advised not to do so
    without a court order, given the toxic, post-election
    climate.  In fact, late on July 12, IFE announced it would
    not open additional further ballot boxes pending a TEPJF
    order.  End note.)

    Allegations of Fraud May Undermine Electoral System
    --------------------------------------------- ------

    ¶6.  (C) Lapati told poloffs that her greatest concern was
    that the recent allegations of electoral fraud risked
    undermining citizen management of elections, which is the
    very foundation of the Mexican electoral system.  She
    reminded us that each voting precinct is staffed by four
    randomly selected and trained citizens, who were responsible
    not only for checking voters' credentials and administering
    the voting process but also for counting the votes.  Because
    the electoral framework was based on the principle that the
    votes should be counted by citizens, rather than by civil
    servants, the law authorized recounts only in the case of an
    inconsistency or apparent error.  She feared that the recent
    allegations of electoral fraud would undermine public trust
    in this citizen-based system, and was also concerned that
    electoral workers could be harassed in their communities,
    making it difficult to recruit volunteers in the future.  She
    also noted that PRD demands that IFE district councils
    recount the votes in every ballot box were inconsistent with
    TEPJF jurisprudence. The TEPJF has previously annulled lower
    level elections where numerous ballot boxes had been
    recounted without the legal criteria being met; in order to
    avoid risking the annulment of this election, IFE had issued
    strict instructions to recount votes only where the statutory
    criteria were met.

    Woldenberg Sees No Evidence of Widespread Fraud
    --------------------------------------------- --

    ¶7.  (C) Former IFE head and well-respected commentator Jose
    Woldenberg told us that while errors undoubtedly had been
    made in the vote count, he is aware of no evidence of an
    organized plan to commit election fraud.  Indeed, he believes
    a widespread conspiracy to commit fraud would be impossible
    given IFE's numerous safeguards.  He characterized as
    "fantasy" the PRD's allegation that the IFE's preliminary
    count (PREP) software contained an algorithm that deducted
    votes from AMLO, noting that every element of data entered
    into the PREP could be corroborated against vote totals on
    the tally sheets.  He thought that overall, IFE had conducted
    the elections very well and that in fact, there were few
    differences between the way it conducted this year's election
    and the way it conducted the 2000 election.  The only
    significant differences were that this year, the IFE adopted
    stricter standards for incorporating vote totals into the
    PREP, meaning that more precincts were excluded from the PREP
    for closer examination by the district councils, and that in
    2000 IFE had decided it would release the results of its
    quick count on election night no matter how narrow the margin
    between the candidates.

    ¶8.  (C) Woldenberg's biggest concern over the present
    situation is the damage unnecessarily being done to IFE's
    reputation by what he considers unfounded allegations of
    fraud.  He noted that it had taken years for Mexico to
    establish a credible electoral system and that no matter how
    the TEPJF resolves the present dispute, a core of AMLO true
    believers -- he called them a "community of faith" -- will

    MEXICO 00003907  003 OF 003

    always be convinced that IFE orchestrated or abetted fraud.

    What's Next???
    --------------

    ¶9.  (C) Woldenberg sees the present situation playing out in
    one of three possible scenarios.  The most likely is that the
    TEPJF -- perhaps after ordering a partial recount -- will
    confirm Calderon as the winner; he doubts the TEPJF would
    order a complete, nationwide recount.  The second scenario,
    which he considers highly improbable, is that a partial or
    total recount would reverse the election results, resulting
    in AMLO's election.  The third scenario, which he also
    considers highly improbable, is that the TEPJF would annul
    the entire election.  (Note: As we have previously reported
    (ref B), TEPJF magistrates told poloffs several weeks before
    the election that they would be very reluctant to annul the
    entire election.  End note.)

    ¶10.  (C) Woldenberg believes that however the TEPJF rules,
    its decision would soon end the stand-off.  Assuming the
    TEPJF confirms Calderon as President, AMLO's base of support
    would quickly dwindle, although he might manage to convoke
    one or two post-TEPJF demonstrations.  He argued that the PRD
    was essentially a party of "institutionality" with a great
    deal invested in the system, particularly now that it has
    emerged as the second force in Congress.  He concluded that
    it had a great deal to lose if it continued to press its case
    extra-institutionally, and that much of the support AMLO
    retains in the party hierarchy would melt away as senior PRD
    office holders sought to protect their own interests.

    Comment:  AMLO Playing the Wrong Card?
    --------------------------------------

    ¶11.  (C)  Frankly, in focusing on fraud where little or none
    likely exists, AMLO not only is damaging one of Mexico's most
    credible political institutions, but he may be undermining
    the small chance he has of reversing the electoral results.
    While we have seen no credible evidence of fraud, there is
    some evidence that the incidence of human error was greater
    in his strongholds, presumably because the level of education
    in those regions tends to be lower: among the more than 2.5
    million votes excluded from the PREP but included in the
    final results (ref A), AMLO appears to have out-polled
    Calderon by some 150,000 votes.  Although we highly doubt a
    recount would find enough errors to overcome Calderon's
    current 243,000 lead, we suspect he is more likely to find
    significant errors than significant fraud.  For over 10
    years, AMLO has advanced his political career in part by
    knowing how to take political advantage of situations in
    which he has been wronged.  In the present case, however, his
    tendency to consider himself the victim of a conspiracy may
    turn out to be his Achilles heel.

    Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at
    http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity

    GARZA

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