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### Viewing cable 06CAIRO2010, EGYPT: ACTIONS LOUDER THAN WORDS - GAMAL MUBARAK

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06CAIRO2010 | 2006-04-03 10:59 | 2010-12-13 21:30 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Cairo

`

    VZCZCXYZ0000
    PP RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHEG #2010/01 0931059
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 031059Z APR 06
    FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7102
    INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 002010

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    NSC STAFF FOR SINGH

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2016
    TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EG
    SUBJECT: EGYPT: ACTIONS LOUDER THAN WORDS - GAMAL MUBARAK
    AND THE PRESIDENCY

    Classified by DCM Stuart Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

    -------
    Summary
    -------

    ¶1. (C) The public profile of Gamal Mubarak, presidential son
    and rising star in the ruling party, has increased in recent
    months. His appearance in late March on an evening talk show
    and a highly publicized visit to a Cairo slum have fueled
    speculation that an effort to succeed his father is moving
    full speed ahead. The possibility that Gamal might succeed
    his father remains deeply unpopular on the street - a
    sentiment often echoed by commentators in the independent and
    opposition press. Gamal has denied that he harbors
    presidential ambitions, but many believe his actions speak
    louder than his words. The intra-family politics of a Gamal
    succession bid are unclear. Conventional wisdom holds that
    Suzanne Mubarak is her younger son's most ardent booster.
    Gamal's chances are improved by the fact that there are no
    other obvious contenders for the presidency waiting in the
    wings. End summary.

    -------------
    Burning Issue
    -------------

    ¶2. (C) The issue of presidential succession is the hottest
    single issue on Egypt's domestic political scene. Unlike his
    predecessors, President Mubarak has never named a Vice
    President. Mubarak, who began his fifth six year term in
    September 2005, will turn 78 in May. Though he is vigorous
    and healthy, there is general recognition that the actuarial
    tables will catch up with Mubarak sooner or later.
    Speculation that Mubarak was grooming his son Gamal to
    succeed him increased markedly in 2002, when the younger
    Mubarak assumed a prominent leadership post in the ruling
    National Democratic Party (NDP), just two years after Bashar
    al-Asad succeeded his father in Syria.

    -------------
    Stage Setting
    -------------

    ¶3. (C) Both Gamal and his father have repeatedly denied that
    there is any plan for a "succession scenario." More
    important than such words, many Egyptians tell us, are the
    actions of Gamal, his father, and others, which appear to be
    setting the stage for the young Mubarak's rise to power. In
    the summer of 2004 and again at the end of 2005, the
    President shuffled his cabinet, replacing "old guard" figures
    with younger, ambitious technocrats, most with direct or
    indirect links to Gamal. In early 2006, a shake-up in the
    ruling NDP promoted Gamal to the post of Assistant
    Secretary-General (co-equal with Zakaria Azmy, the

    SIPDIS
    President's de-facto Chief of Staff, and old-guard cabinet
    veteran Mufeed Shehab). The party shuffle also brought a
    number of other Gamal allies into key party leadership
    positions, replacing a number of old-guard rival kingmakers,
    including the notorious machine politician Kamal al-Shazly.

    -------------
    Settling Down
    -------------

    ¶4. (C) Gamal's February engagement to the 24 year old
    socialite Khadiga el-Gammal is widely viewed as another step
    on the path to the presidency. In a society where men
    typically marry before their 30th birthday, Gamal's
    bachelorhood has extended into his 40's. Thus Gamal's
    engagement, cynics tell us, was engineered to broaden his
    appeal.

    ---------------------------
    "Not for Any Other Purpose"
    ---------------------------

    ¶5. (C) On March 28, Gamal paid a visit, camera crews in tow,
    to the slums of Agouza al-Qadima in Giza, just west of
    Central Cairo. Gamal was there, with Housing Minister (and
    ally) Ahmed al-Maghraby, to cut the ribbon on new low income
    housing units prepared by his Future Generation Foundation, a
    development group he founded in 1999, aimed at addressing the
    needs of poor youth. Most political observers regard the
    foundation as a vehicle primarly intended for Gamal's public
    entree onto the political stage. "We came to help and serve
    only - not for any other purpose," Gamal told accompanying
    journalists in Agouza.

    ¶6. (C) Later that evening, Gamal made a rare appearance on a
    talk show on State Channel 1, promoted all day in advance of
    the broadcast and re-aired on March 29. Gamal focused his
    remarks on his work to rejuvenate the NDP and promote reform
    and "new thinking." He denied that he was out of touch with
    the public, asserting that "one enjoys...going down into the
    street and listening to the people." He also asserted that
    he regularly visits the provinces, but usually keeps a low
    profile lest people ascribe ulterior motives. We have
    noticed an uptick of recent Gamal forays outside of Cairo.
    He stood in for his father, grounded in Cairo by a dust
    storm, at the ribbon cutting for an international air show in
    Sharm el Sheikh. Given all the attention, he could have
    easily been mistaken as the head of state himself.

    --------------
    Stone Throwers
    --------------

    ¶7. (C) On his alleged presidential ambitions, Gamal told
    Egyptian talk show viewers on March 28 that he had "made
    clear as daylight" that he did not intend to seek the
    presidency and was instead focused on his current efforts to
    promote reform and serve society. These denials have been
    generally disregarded. "He is repackaging himself - if he is
    not interested, why is he going to all this trouble?"
    prominent liberal dissident Saad Eddin Ibrahim recently mused
    to a western journalist. Former Nasser advisor and
    influential writer Mohamed Hassanein Heikal has made
    opposition to Gamal's succession a staple of his regular
    newspaper columns in the independent press. The notion that
    Gamal might succeed his father, Heikal has written, is an
    affront to Egypt's republican principles.

    ¶8. (C) Abdel Halim Qandil, editor of the Nasserist weekly
    Al-Araby (and a co-founder of the Kifaya protest movement),
    was a pioneer of the anti-Gamal movement, authoring in 2003 a
    series of scathing editorials against the alleged plot to
    install Gamal and underlining the public's "universal
    rejection" of the notion. These editorials, many believe,
    were linked to Qandil's brief 2004 abduction and beating by
    still unidentified thugs, who left him bruised and naked on
    the Suez desert highway.

    ¶9. (C) Very publicly resigning from the NDP in early March,
    leading liberal thinker Osama el-Ghazaly Harb told us of his
    disillusionment with the party's reform process, which he
    came to believe was merely a vehicle for Gamal to promote his
    political career. Imprisoned opposition politician Ayman
    Nour and his supporters have repeatedly insisted to us that
    it was his threat to Gamal that led to his political
    destruction. Like Gamal, Nour is 42 years old.

    ¶10. (C) An article that appeared March 23 in the maverick
    independent paper Al-Dustour attacked Gamal from a new angle.
    With dubious sourcing, the paper alleged that the Egyptian
    brokerage and financial analysis firm EFG-Hermes had
    manipulated the early March drop of the Cairo-Alexandria
    Stock Exchange to the advantage of its partners and clients
    and at the expense of small investors, adding that Gamal
    Mubarak is on the firm's board. The article clearly got
    Gamal's attention: He acknowledged in his talk show
    appearance that he sat on EFG's board, but insisted that his
    work focused on subsidiary companies not traded on the stock
    market.

    -------------
    An Open Field
    -------------

    ¶11. (C) Despite the sniping of many Egyptian opinion-leaders,
    and a more general public hostility (echoed by many of our
    contacts) to Gamal's possible presidential succession, there
    are few other obvious contenders for the post. The post of
    Vice President has remained vacant, despite earlier
    speculation that Mubarak might fill it after the 2005
    elections were behind him. Of the 10 candidates who
    contested Mubarak's presidency last fall, Ayman Nour, who
    placed second, lost his parliamentary seat under very
    controversial circumstances and was subsequently convicted of
    forgery and sentenced to a seven year jail term. The
    third-place finisher, Wafd Party candidate No'man Gomaa, was
    arrested for attempted murder and other charges on April 1
    (septel). The other eight candidates, marginal figures to
    begin with, have faded back into nearly total obscurity.

    ¶12. (C) There are currently almost no other Egyptian
    personalities with the national stature and political capital
    needed to seriously contend for the presidency. One
    exception could be Intelligence Chief Omar Soliman, who
    wields enormous influence over national security policy and
    is known to have the full confidence of Mubarak. Soliman is
    often cited as a potential appointee to the long-vacant Vice
    Presidential post and his profile has grown with his
    well-publicized mediation visits to Israel and the
    Palestinian territories.

    ¶13. (C) Another possible exception could be Arab League
    Secretary-General Amr Moussa, who has a high public profile

    SIPDIS
    and generally receives favorable coverage across the spectrum
    of Egyptian media outlets. Consequently, he enjoys
    considerable street crediblity as a champion of Arab causes.
    However, Moussa has never expressed or even hinted at any
    presidential ambitions and has no Egyptian institutional
    platform from which to spring. Moussa's assumption of
    another five year term as Arab League SYG could be
    alternately interpreted as keeping him "otherwise occupied"
    or "still in the game," with respect to future political
    positions, but he has never offered any hint that he intends
    to wade into Egypt's domestic political scene.

    -----------------
    All in the Family
    -----------------

    ¶14. (C) The intra-family politics of a Gamal succession bid
    are unclear. Elder son Alaa', well-known to have extensive
    business interests (many of which are privately criticized as
    corrupt and exploitative) keeps a low public profile and has
    never shown any inclination to wade into the political arena.
    (A rare sighting of Alaa' on national TV took place during
    the final game of the Africa Cup championship in late
    February, when he was photographed in the stadium's VIP
    section with Gamal, cheering on Egypt to its 2-1 victory over
    Ivory Coast.)

    ¶15. (C) The President has been careful not to indicate any
    overt support for Gamal, is rarely photographed with him, and
    has on several occasions angrily denied to the media that
    there is any plan for his younger son to succeed him. While
    some have speculated that the President is ambivalent about
    Gamal's political future, he has not stood in the way of the
    rise of his son and his allies through the ranks of the
    ruling NDP, or obstructed his increased public profile.
    Moreover, the President has twice in the past two years
    shuffled his cabinet and replaced "old guard" elements with
    younger technocrats linked to Gamal. While there is little
    public evidence, commonly accepted wisdom in Cairo is that
    First Lady Suzanne Mubarak is Gamal's most ardent political
    patron. Unlike the President, the First Lady is often
    photographed at public events with Gamal, frequently in
    connection with social issues. Her power and influence, many
    argue, are keys to Gamal's viability. Sources tell us that
    she has kept Mubarak pere from naming a Vice President.

    ---------------------
    Legal Framework Wired
    ---------------------

    ¶16. (C) The legal/electoral stage, rearranged in 2005 with
    the amendment of Article 76 of the constitution, currently
    guarantees that the ruling NDP, increasingly dominated by
    Gamal and his allies, will retain their lock on the
    presidency. Of all 20 of Egypt's legally recognized parties,
    only the NDP currently meets the conditions as defined in the
    amendment to field a presidential candidate. (The rules set
    forth in the amendment state that only parties holding five
    percent or more of the seats in each of the People's Assembly
    and the Shura Council. The bar is set higher for
    independents, who must obtain endorsements from 65 PA
    members, 25 Shura Council members, and 10 local council
    members from each of at least 14 of the 26 provinces.) While
    voters will have opportunities to change the current makeup
    of the Shura Council in 2007 and 2009, and the People's
    Assembly in 2010, should a presidential transition become
    necessary sooner, there would be no legal or procedural
    hurdles for any NDP candidate to the presidency.

    ---------------------------
    A Military Stumbling Block?
    ---------------------------

    ¶17. (C) A key stumbling block for any effort to bring Gamal
    Mubarak to the presidency could be the military. Each of
    Egypt's three presidents since the republic was established
    in 1952 were drawn from the military's officer corps, and the
    military has historically been the ultimate guarantor of the
    president's rule. Gamal Mubarak did not serve as a military
    officer (and it is not clear whether he ever completed, even
    "on paper," his national military service) and unlike his
    father, can not take the military's support for granted.
    This factor is often cited by our contacts, who believe that
    Soliman, the intelligence chief with a military background,
    would have to figure in any succession scenario for Gamal, if
    only as a transitional figure. Another theory is that some
    other military officer could emerge from obscurity as a
    presidential contender. (Defense Minister Tantawi is
    acknowledged to be frail and without any political ambition.)

    -------
    Comment
    -------

    ¶18. (C) Gamal Mubarak's rise in the ruling NDP, his attempts
    to position himself as a "friend of the people," and as the
    national champion of reform and "new thinking," are all
    compelling evidence that his political ambitions are real -
    denials notwithstanding. Despite palpable public hostility
    to his succession, and potential stumbling blocks, the way
    forward for Gamal currently appears open. Gamal and his
    ambitious allies, such as MP and NDP figure Ahmed Ezz and
    economic reform ministers such as Rachid Rachid and Youssef
    Boutrous Ghali, are apparently banking that structural
    improvements to the economy will deliver tangible benefits to
    the masses, and build a support base that extends beyond
    affluent business circles.

    RICCIARDONE

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