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### Viewing cable 06MANAGUA1057, NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS: FIVE ALLIANCES EMERGE, APRE

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06MANAGUA1057 | 2006-05-12 21:44 | 2011-06-01 08:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Managua

Appears in these articles:
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758456.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758467.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758468.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758464.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4103/la-embusa-y-el-gabinete-de-ortega
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4104/d-rsquo-escoto-en-onu-ldquo-un-desafio-de-ortega-a-ee-uu-rdquo
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4102/estrada-y-la-ldquo-doble-cara-rdquo-ante-ee-uu
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3966/la-ldquo-injerencia-rdquo-de-ee-uu-en-el-2006
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-23/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2758764.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-23/Mundo/NotaPrincipal/Mundo2758753.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4041/millones-de-dolares-sin-control-y-a-discrecion
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4040/la-ldquo-injerencia-rdquo-de-venezuela-en-2006
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4047/rodrigo-barreto-enviado-de-ldquo-vacaciones-rdquo
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2757239.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/NotaPrincipal/Mundo2746658.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2757244.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2746673.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3991/dra-yadira-centeno-desmiente-cable-diplomatico-eeuu
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3968/pellas-pronostico-a-eeuu-victoria-de-ortega-en-2006
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3967/barreto-era-ldquo-fuente-confiable-rdquo-para-eeuu

`

    VZCZCXYZ0000
    OO RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHMU #1057/01 1322144
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 122144Z MAY 06
    FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6277
    INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0674
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 001057

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    FOR WHA/CEN

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2016
    TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI NU
    SUBJECT: NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS: FIVE ALLIANCES EMERGE, APRE
    JOINS THE ALN

    REF: A. MANAGUA 0738

         ¶B. MANAGUA 0711

    Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d)

    ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The deadline to register political
    alliances for Nicaragua's national elections in November came
    and went on May 11 without a deal to unite the Liberal
    Constitutional Party (PLC) and the Nicaraguan Liberal
    Alliance (ALN).  The big surprise of the day was APRE's
    decision to break negotiations with the PLC and join the
    ALN's alliance, while APRE's presidential candidate, Jose
    Antonio Alvarado, remained in the PLC fold.  Previously, a
    large segment of Yatama renounced Brooklyn Rivera's decision
    to join with the FSLN and instead signed an alliance with the
    ALN, and the Alternativa Cristiana (AC) deserted Sandinista
    dissident Herty Lewites' group to register independently.
    Ultimately, five groups registered with the Supreme Electoral
    Council (CSE) to compete in the national elections: the PLC,
    FSLN, ALN, MRS (Lewites' alliance), and the AC.  End Summary.

    APRE SPLITS WITH ALVARADO TO JOIN ALN
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶2. (SBU) The rifts between the "Amigos de Alvarado" and the
    Alliance for the Republic (APRE), the party that had
    nominated Jose Antonio Alvarado as its presidential
    candidate, came to a head on May 11 when APRE split with
    Alvarado to join an alliance with the ALN.  APRE leaders, led
    by party president Miguel Lopez Baldizon became increasingly
    frustrated with Alvarado's flirtation with PLC leader Arnoldo
    Aleman and lack of coordination in negotiations with the APRE
    directorship.  Alvarado was likewise angered when APRE
    refused to include Ariel Granera and other close advisors in
    its list of departmental deputies to negotiate with the
    Liberal alliances.  As a result, Alvarado signed on with the
    PLC in his "personal capacity" and with expectations for the
    PLC vice presidential nomination, and Lopez Baldizon signed a
    last-minute alliance with the ALN at 7:00 p.m.

    ¶3. (C) Comment: The reasons for the APRE/Alvarado split are
    legion.  Lopez Baldizon feels, with some justification, that
    Alvarado usurped APRE to further his personal ambitions.  He
    was also uncomfortable with the PLC's insistence that the
    APRE National Assembly deputies (Lopez Baldizon and Assembly
    president Eduardo Gomez) sign a letter supporting amnesty for
    Aleman.  Poloffs kept in frequent touch with Lopez Baldizon
    on May 10 and 11 to remind him that Alvarado's stock has
    fallen precipitously since his public rapprochement with
    Aleman and that he would do better to negotiate a separate
    deal with Montealegre.  Polcouns especially worked the phones
    on May 11 to "herd the cats" and encourage APRE to commit to
    the ALN.  End Comment.

    ¶4. (C) At around 4:00 p.m. on May 11, Eduardo Montealegre
    registered his Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance with the Supreme
    Electoral Council.  During a May 8 meeting with poloffs,
    Montealegre advisors Edmundo Leal and Pepe Matus explained
    that the alliance would register as "ALN" and not "ALN-PC"
    (Conservative Party) to avoid alienating Liberal and
    Resistance voters.  In addition to APRE, the parties with a
    legal inscription (personeria jurdica) that registered with
    the ALN are the Conservative Party (PC), Nicaraguan
    Resistance Party (PRN), and the Liberal Independent Party
    (PLI).  Montealegre did not announce his vice presidential
    running mate, but Leal and Matus reported to poloffs that
    Conservative Cristiana Chamorro is the likely choice, if she
    accepts.

    YATAMA LEADERS BREAK WITH RIVERA TO JOIN MONTEALEGRE
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶5. (C) A Yatama splinter group, led by Yatama Board of
    Directors President Adolfo Smith and Yatama Resistance leader
    Osorno Coleman ("Comandante Blas"), signed a political
    alliance with the ALN on May 10.  Also joining the accord was
    PAMUC leader Mario Cordoba.  Smith lambasted
    rival/pro-Sandinista Yatama leader Brooklyn Rivera for having
    made a "personal decision" to ally with Daniel Ortega, and
    announced that Yatama will hold a special assembly on May
    13-14 to condemn Rivera,s actions.  Coleman stated that the
    Miskitos will soon file a suit against Daniel Ortega and a
    number of his inner circle for crimes against humanity
    committed against the Miskitos during the Sandinista regime.
    (Comment: Embassy has encouraged both Smith/Coleman and
    Montealegre,s advisors to negotiate an alliance to break

    Ortega,s influence over Yatama.  Also, Coleman is one of the
    Embassy's main contacts for CPDH,s project to reveal
    Sandinista Era abuses against the Miskito population.  End
    Comment.)

    PLC LEFT WITH CAMINO CRISTIANO AND MICROPARTIES
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶6. (SBU) Despite the public displays of camaraderie between
    PLC presidential candidate Jose Rizo and Jose Antonio
    Alvarado, the defection of APRE to the ALN took the wind out
    of the PLC's sails.  Alvarado continued to repeat his mantra
    of "Liberal unity," disregarding the evident failure of the
    PLC and ALN to reach an accord, and commented that his
    friends in APRE would follow him to the PLC.  The
    always-petulant Maria Dolores Aleman (Arnoldo's oldest
    daughter and PLC Assembly deputy) complained that the Embassy
    had pressured Alvarado to desert the PLC and pledged that the
    party would work "tooth and nail" to win the elections.  The
    only legally inscribed parties left with the PLC are the
    Camino Cristiano (those that did not leave with Delia
    Arellano to join Montealegre -- see ref B) and the tiny
    Multiethnic Indigenous Party (PIM).

    FSLN REGISTERS EARLY
    - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶7. (U) The FSLN was the first party to inscribe its electoral
    alliance with the CSE.  On May 8, FSLN leader Daniel Ortega
    formally registered the alliance under the name "Nicaragua
    Triumphs" ("Nicaragua Triunfa").  Ortega announced that the
    alliance would announce the nomination of its vice
    presidential candidate on May 28.  A number of small parties
    registered under the alliance including, notably, Yatama, the
    principal party representing the indigenous peoples of the
    Atlantic Coast.  Splinter groups of Liberals, Conservatives,
    evangelicals, and Resistance (ex-contras) also joined the
    alliance.

    THE "TIGER" IS READY TO FIGHT
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶8. (SBU) Sandinista dissident Herty Lewites registered his
    Movement to Rescue Sandinismo (MRS) alliance on May 10,
    quipping that he, the "tiger" (he sometimes calls himself the
    "Jewish Tiger," in memory of his Jewish father), is now ready
    to "hunt ducks (Rizo), rats (Montealegre), and roosters
    (Ortega)" -- referring to the animal caricatures popularly
    associated with those candidates.  Despite rumors that
    Lewites, health has deteriorated, according to most reports,
    he appeared to be his spry, energetic self during Costa Rican
    President Arias, inauguration.  According to Montealegre,
    who was on the same turbulent return flight home, Lewites
    half joked that they should not fly together, because if the
    plane were to go down with the two of them aboard, Nicaragua
    would loose its chance to reform.

    ¶9. (U) Lewites ran into trouble at the last minute when the
    CSE insisted that the MRS had to formally dissolve its
    previous alliance with Alternativa Cristiana (AC) in order to
    inscribe its new alliance.  Lewites frantically called MRS
    president Dora Maria Tellez and AC leader Orlando Tardencilla
    to sign the dissolution documents at the CSE on May 11.

    ALTERNATIVA CRISTIANA ENTERS THE FRAY ALONE
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶10. (U) Orlando Tardencilla's Alternativa Cristiana (AC)
    decided to register independently after a public break with
    Lewites over campaign strategy following the March 5 regional
    Atlantic Coast elections.  AC chose flamboyant former
    Sandinista and Contra commander Eden Pastora as its
    candidate.  (Note: Pastora was the Managua mayoral candidate
    for the PLI in the 2004 municipal elections and won less than
    five percent of the vote.  The Nicaraguan public now seems to
    view him more as a wacky celebrity than a leader.  End Note.)

    COMMENT: ALVARADO'S STAR HAS FALLEN
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶11. (C) After emerging a year ago as a prominent "Third Way"
    Liberal candidate, Jose Antonio Alvarado has finally --
    following innumerable meetings with all Liberal factions --
    decided to return to the PLC fold.  Montealegre, though
    frustrated with Alvarado's incessant bed hopping, was open to
    a deal until the end, but ultimately was unwilling to sweeten

    the pot enough to entice Alvarado away from the PLC.  The
    loss to Montealegre may not be great, however, as Alvarado's
    poll numbers have slipped from around five percent to less
    than one percent following his rapprochement with the PLC.
    At this point, many anti-pact voters appear to be fed up with
    Alvarado, who would probably prove more a liability to
    Montealegre's campaign than an asset.
    TRIVELLI

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