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### Viewing cable 08BEIRUT237, LEBANON: THEORIES ABOUT MUGHNIEH'S ASSASSINATION

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08BEIRUT237 | 2008-02-14 16:56 | 2011-07-21 00:00 | SECRET//NOFORN | Embassy Beirut

Appears in these articles:
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/16545
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/16461
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/16545
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/16546
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/16605
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/16606
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/16703
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/16793
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/16794
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/16636
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/16635
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/17148
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/17149
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/17150
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/17152
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/17155
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/17156
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/17157
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/17158
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/17159
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/17160
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/17161
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/17163
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/17164
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/17165
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/17166
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/17167
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/17169
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/17170
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/17171
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/16723
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/16635
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/16636
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/16637
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/16638
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/16639
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/16640
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/16641
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/16642
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/16643
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/16644
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/16645

`

    VZCZCXRO8413
    PP RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHROV
    DE RUEHLB #0237/01 0451656
    ZNY SSSSS ZZH
    P 141656Z FEB 08
    FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1008
    INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
    RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
    RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 2226
    RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

` `

    S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000237

    SIPDIS

    NOFORN
    SIPDIS

    NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/14/2018
    TAGS: PGOV PREL IS KPAL LE
    SUBJECT: LEBANON: THEORIES ABOUT MUGHNIEH'S ASSASSINATION

    REF: TD 314-011416-08

    Classified By: DCM William Grant for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

    SUMMARY
    --------

    ¶1. (C)  Two days after the February 12 Damascus car bomb
    attack that killed senior Hizballah commander Imad Mughnieh,
    theories abound in Beirut on who was behind the assassination
    and why.  The timing of the killing also cannot be ignored,
    occurring just two days before the third anniversary of the
    assassination of former PM Rafiq Hariri and a March 14
    commemorative rally in downtown Beirut.  With tensions in
    Lebanon already high -- and both sides hardening their
    positions -- due to the ongoing political impasse, many
    Lebanese are predicting that Lebanon will pay the price for
    Mughnieh's death.

    ¶2. (C)  The assassination of a figure who was an icon for the
    Lebanese Shia resistance, but one of the U.S.' and Israel's
    most sought after terrorist fugitives, raises questions about
    who wanted Mughnieh dead now, and why.  While most regional
    finger pointing is directed at Israel, with the U.S. coming a
    close second, several local political and intelligence
    sources believe the Syrian regime had good reasons to rid
    itself of Mughnieh.

    ¶3.  (C)  As the Hizballah controlled southern suburbs of
    Beirut are in deep mourning for the  February 14 burial of
    one of their own, reaction from members of the pro-government
    March 14 bloc ranges from private satisfaction  to the sober
    condolence statement issued by Future Movement leader Saad
    Hariri.  However, the possibility that March 14 could have
    been involved has also surfaced in the rumor mill.  There is
    widespread concern that retaliation will not be good for
    Lebanon.  End summary.

    CONCURRENT MAJORITY AND
    OPPOSITION MEMORIALS
    -----------------------

    ¶4. (C)  On a dreary and wet February 14 afternoon Hizballah
    buried its hero, Imad Mughnieh, in a mass funeral service
    that included speeches by Hizballah SYG Hassan Nasrallah and
    Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki.  A few hours
    earlier, and just a short drive from Mughnieh's funeral, the
    pro-government March 14 bloc held a mass rally in Martyrs'
    Square commemorating the third anniversary of the
    assassination of former PM Rafiq Hariri.  The mass gathering
    of March 14 supporters (claims of attendance ranged from
    100,000 to a million supporters) was an attempt to
    re-energize the majority's base and regain the political
    initiative against the opposition.  Nasrallah vowed "open
    war" with the "Zionists," pledging to carry out operations
    against Israel outside of Lebanon in retaliation for
    Mughnieh's death.  The speechmaking at the peaceful March 14
    rally focused on the need for Lebanese "consensus and
    agreement," and the immediate election of a president.  Among
    the many speakers, only Druse leader Walid Jumblatt came out
    tough on Syria and its opposition allies, vowing that Lebanon
    will not be "handed to Damascus or to the black
    Syrian-Iranian world."

    MARCH 14'S PUBLIC CONDEMNATION:
    MORE THAN CROCODILE TEARS?
    -------------------------

    ¶5.  (C)  On February 13, March 14 leader MP Saad Hariri
    publicly denounced Mughnieh's assassination and offered his
    condolences to Hizballah SYG Hassan Nasrallah.  In an LBCI
    television interview the same day, Hariri agreed with
    Hizballah's accusation that Israel was behind the killing.
    However, Hariri also hinted at a Syrian role when he noted
    that Mughnieh was killed in Damascus, near an Iranian school,
    and in an area controlled by Syrian intelligence.

    ¶6.  (C)  The day of the assassination. March 14 SYG Fares
    Suaid spoke of Mughnieh's death as though it were a lesson
    for Hizballah.  Namely, Hizballah should realize that its
    only protector and guarantor is the Lebanese state and the
    Lebanese army and not/not the Syrian security apparatus and
    its arsenal.

    ¶7.  (C)  Meanwhile Druse leader and March 14 member Walid
    Jumblatt, believes that either the Israelis, for obvious
    reasons, or the Syrians, for reasons unknown, eliminated
    Mughnieh. In any case, Jumblatt, candid as usual, called
    Mughnieh's death "good news."

    ¶8.  (C)  A number of majority politicians, including former
    Lebanese Ambassador to the U.S. Simon Karam and National
    Liberal Party leader Dory Chamoun, believe Syria liquidated
    Mughnieh as a "gift to the Americans."  Both hoped that the
    deal will not turn out to be at Lebanon's expense.

    ¶9.  (C)  Minister of the Interior Hassan Sabaa told
    Ambassador that he was relieved that Mughnieh was not killed
    on Lebanese soil, otherwise March 14 would have been accused
    of conspiring with Israel against Hizballah.  Sabaa,
    undecided as to the identity of the perpetrator, commented it
    could be Syria wanting to send a message to Hizballah or to
    the U.S., or even the result of a split within Hizballah.
    He, too, expressed concern that Lebanon could pay a price in
    case the message was directed to the U.S. as reminder that
    the U.S should deal with Syria over the presidential election
    and Hizballah.

    ¶10.  (C)  Another theory in the Beirut rumor mill has it that
    the Saudis and the Hariri family collaborated with Syrian
    Sunni jihadis to deal a blow to the opposition and their
    allies Syria and Iran.  This idea is based on previous
    allegations that Saad Hariri and Saudi Arabia were involved
    in arming Sunni militants in an effort to counter Hizballah.

    ISF OFFICIALS SEE BASHAR'S HAND
    -------------------------------

    ¶11. (S/NF) Mid-level officials from Lebanese Internal
    Security Forces (ISF) told emboffs they believe Syrian forces
    affiliated with President Bashar al-Asad may be responsible
    for the assassination in an effort to force a compromise in
    the ongoing political impasse by lessening pressure on Syria
    (Ref A).  The officials further speculated that the attack
    would be a severe blow to Hizballah, leading to extensive
    confusion and lack of cohesion.  They attribute their
    assessment to alleged tension between al-Asad and his
    military intelligence chief Asef Shawkat resulting from a
    disagreement between the spouses of the two men.  The ISF
    officials further noted that al-Asad was becoming
    increasingly independent, sidelining
    previously trusted advisors such as Shawkat.

    SOME OPPOSITION OBSERVERS
    DOUBT ISRAELI "GUILT"
    -------------------------

    ¶12.  (C)  While most observers in the Lebanese opposition
    rallied behind Hizballah's accusation against Israel,
    Aoun-bloc MP Ghassan Mokheiber noted privately to emboffs
    that it was bizarre that Mughnieh was killed after stepping
    out of a Syrian intelligence office, adding that Mughnieh's
    death represented a big challenge for Hizballah.  Mokheiber
    commented that the days ahead would probably reveal the
    nature of a possible "deal" made.
    SISON

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