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### Viewing cable 05BRASILIA1686, BRAZIL'S SUPPLY OF ELECTRICITY SUFFICIENT FOR NOW, BUT

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05BRASILIA1686 | 2005-06-24 12:15 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Brasilia

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BRASILIA 001686

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    STATE FOR WHA/BSC
    NSC FOR RENIGAR, BREIER, SHANNON
    TREASURY FOR OASIA - DAS LEE AND FPARODI
    DOE FOR SLADISLAW
    USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC/JANDERSEN/ADRISCOLL/MWAR D
    USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USCS/OIO/WH/RD/DDEVITO/DANDERSON/EOL SON

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ENRG EINV
    SUBJECT: BRAZIL'S SUPPLY OF ELECTRICITY SUFFICIENT FOR NOW, BUT
    CONCERN FOR THE FUTURE

    REFS: (A) Brasilia 0775, (B) Sao Paulo 0721, (C) Brasilia 1239

    ¶1. (U) Summary:  Brazil's electricity generation and
    transmission
    network continues to be strong and has been able to weather
    recent troubles stemming from both politics and nature.  Despite
    a continuing drought in southern Brazil, the turmoil in Bolivia
    that threatens natural gas supplies to Brazil, and a storm that
    knocked out two of the Itaipu hydroelectric plant's (a major
    supplier) transmission lines, no concern has been expressed about
    a potential black-out because of Brazil's abundant electricity
    generation capacity and flexible national transmission grid.
    While the sector has been able to overcome these immediate
    challenges, significant new investment is necessary in the next
    few years for Brazil to avoid a power shortage.  End Summary.

    Lurking Dangers
    ---------------

    ¶2. (U) After facing a serious electricity shortage and rationing
    in 2001 and 2002, due to an extensive drought and lack of
    transmission capacity to move energy from surplus to deficit
    areas, the GOB has made a concerted effort to improve the
    national electricity generation and distribution network.  In
    terms of electricity generation capacity, the GOB encouraged
    Petrobras to enter into several thermoelectric generation plant
    contracts as a guarantor, thereby establishing a thermal power
    insurance policy that would secure supply and help avoid another
    shortage.  The thermoelectric plants had the added advantage that
    they could be constructed and enter into operation relatively
    quickly.  Brazil's electric power system has been able to ride
    out three major incidents recently, showcasing its current
    strength.  First, southern Brazil is in the midst of its worst
    drought in 40 years and there is widespread concern regarding the
    impact on agricultural output (Ref A), local populations, and
    hydroelectric generation.  Second, the political upheavals in
    Bolivia have called into question the reliability of the natural
    gas supply to Brazil.  Third, a recent storm at the Itaipu
    generation plant knocked out two of its transmission lines.
    Nevertheless, Brazil is not currently in danger of a repeat of
    the 2001-2002 crisis.

    Drought Pressure on Reservoir Levels
    ------------------------------------

    ¶3. (U) The drought has depleted southern Brazil's reservoir
    levels, which were just over 50% in May (but had risen to 70% by
    mid-June).  In response, the National Electric System Operator
    (ONS) decided to increase production of electric energy at the
    Itaipu plant by 10% to reduce demand on the hydroelectric supply
    and thus conserve the southern region's reservoir levels.  But
    the low reservoir levels in the south are also offset but the
    high levels in the other three regions, which are currently 94%
    in the Northeast, 84% in the Southeast, and 97% in the North
    (although the North remains the least interconnected of all the
    regions).

    ¶4. (SBU) Rafael Machado, an engineer in the Brazilian National
    Electric Energy Regulatory Agency (ANEEL), told EconOff that the
    Brazilian system of hydroelectric generation relies on a system
    of balances, in which, because of climatic variations, it is
    assumed that there will be periods of time in which the rainfall
    is lower in some regions and higher in others.  He said that
    right now, as a whole, there is plenty of water in reserve to
    generate the necessary power, while there wasn't in 2001.  In
    addition, Machado explained, the infrastructure for transmission
    of energy from one part of the country has expanded sufficiently
    now to accommodate shortfalls in one region with the surplus in
    another, which also wasn't the case in 2001-2002.  The
    relatively
    flat landscape in the south generally does not allow for large
    reservoirs, according to Machado, resulting in relatively smaller
    reserves even during times of good rain.  Although there are
    serious water shortages for the human population and for
    agriculture and animal husbandry, Machado pointed out that the
    south does not have a problem with electricity supply.  Machado
    said that in southern Brazil the first line of defense against
    shortages is the thermoelectric plants (which initially went
    into
    full capacity operation), but any additional shortfalls would be
    met through energy transfers from other regions.

    The Thermoelectrics and Natural Gas Supplies
    --------------------------------------------

    ¶5. (U) Because the thermoelectric plants generate a relatively
    low proportion of the electricity consumed in Brazil, the
    potential shortage of gas from Bolivia and the current shortage
    from Argentina has not negatively impacted electricity
    generation.  Given the current electric energy glut in Brazil in
    general, however, the thermoelectric plants have shifted to
    playing more of a contingency role in the overall power
    generation mix, which is dominated by hydroelectric power.
    Thermal generation represents 18% of Brazil's overall generation
    capacity, but much of that capacity is typically under-utilized.
    This was fortunate, since Argentina has not sent Brazil all of
    the natural gas that it contracted for due to shortfalls in
    meeting Argentina's own demand.  As a result, two thermoelectric
    plants in southern Brazil that run on Argentine natural gas were
    reportedly shut down temporarily.  The excess in hydroelectric
    generation capacity also made it easier to plan for a potential
    cutoff in Bolivian natural gas supplies in view of the political
    crisis in that country.  Although the first step in Brazil's
    contingency plan was to shut down its natural-gas powered
    thermoelectric plants, such an action would not have stressed
    power supplies.  The possible rationing raised enormous concerns
    for the city of Sao Paulo because of the large quantities of
    bottled and natural gas consumed by both industries and
    households there (Ref B); however, the consensus is that if
    rationing does come to pass, it will not impact electricity
    supplies.

    Storm at Itaipu
    ---------------

    ¶6. (U) A powerful storm on June 14 knocked out two of the
    transmission lines at the Itaipu hydroelectric generation plant,
    shutting down four of its twelve turbines and reducing its
    operation to 60% of capacity.  The ONS responded to the emergency
    by restarting turbines at other hydroelectric plants that were
    undergoing maintenance, activating natural gas thermoelectric
    plants (through an agreement with Petrobras), asking the Angra I
    and Angra II nuclear plants to increase their output, and
    importing electricity from Argentina.  The Director-General of
    the ONS was reported in the press as saying that the solution was
    indicative of how "robust the interconnectivity of the system"
    is.  (Completed in 1983, Itaipu is the largest hydroelectric
    plant in the world and a joint venture between Brazil and
    Paraguay; it has the capacity for generating up to 12,600 MW --
    twice the capacity of the Grand Coulee in the United States.)

    Comment: Is All This Sustainable?
    ---------------------------------

    ¶7. (SBU) Brazil's combination of a relatively flexible energy
    grid and its current hydroelectric power generation capacity
    surplus allowed the country to weather recent challenges.  To
    meet Brazil's future energy demands, however, the electric energy
    sector will require significant investments soon as the current
    excess supply won't last forever.  Time is short, as the GOB
    needs to get new hydroelectric power plants under construction
    now to meet supply shortfalls expected in 2009.  This is
    especially urgent in light of new findings reported by the
    Brazilian Natural Gas and Petroleum Institute (IBP).  The IBP
    asserts that, because of the delay in the construction of new
    hydroelectric plants, the thermoelectric plants will likely be
    operating at full capacity in 2008 just to meet projected demand.
    IBP says that would mean an increase in natural gas consumption
    to close to 100 million cubic meters per day, even though the
    forecast supply of natural gas for 2008 is only 70 million cubic
    meters per day.  In other words, even if the large natural gas
    supply in Brazil's Santos Basin comes on-line early and the
    proposed natural gas ring connecting Chile-Argentina-Uruguay-
    Brazil materializes, Brazil will need a secure natural gas supply
    to meet its future electricity demands, especially if the water
    reservoir levels decrease.

    ¶8. (SBU) The Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) is preparing its
    first auction for new power generation plants under the GOB's new
    energy model.  The transition to the new model and a bungled
    electricity supply auction (Ref C), however, has hurt many
    existing private power companies in the sector and damaged the
    MME's credibility with investors.  The situation is not yet dire
    as the MME could resort to filling the predicted supply gaps with
    additional thermoelectric and biomass plants, which can be built
    more quickly than hydroelectric plants, although Brazil would
    still be faced with questions about the adequacy of its gas
    supplies.  Whatever the source of the energy, the upcoming bids
    for new generation capacity should help answer the fundamental
    question of whether the GOB will be able to attract significant
    new private investment in the energy sector.

    ¶9. (U) This cable was coordinated with Consulates General Sao
    Paulo and Rio de Janeiro.

    DANILOVICH

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