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### Viewing cable 06TELAVIV4606, APHSCT TOWNSEND'S NOVEMBER 12 MEETING WITH ISRAELI

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06TELAVIV4606 | 2006-11-24 13:34 | 2011-05-04 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Tel Aviv

Appears in these articles:
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/9097
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/9096
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/9097
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/9098
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/9099
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/9100
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/9102
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/9103
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/9104
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/9099
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/9105
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/9106
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/9107
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/9108

`

    null
    Carol X Weakley  11/27/2006 02:27:14 PM  From  DB/Inbox:  Carol X Weakley

    Cable
    Text:

    C O N F I D E N T I A L        TEL AVIV 04606

    SIPDIS
    CXTelA:
        ACTION: POL
        INFO:   RES ECON DCM DAO AMB AID ADM IPSC PD IMO RSO
                CONS

    DISSEMINATION: POL
    CHARGE: PROG

    APPROVED: CHG:GCRETZ
    DRAFTED: CONS:BEBOLTON
    CLEARED: POL/C:MJSIEVERS, DAO:DOMEARA, POL:MCKEAYS

    VZCZCTVI119
    PP RUEHC RUEHXK RHEFDIA RUEAIIA RUEKJCS RHEHNSC
    RHMFISS RHEHAAA RUEKJCS
    DE RUEHTV #4606/01 3281334
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 241334Z NOV 06
    FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7795
    INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
    RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
    RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
    RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHDC PRIORITY
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 004606

    SIPDIS

    THE WHITE HOUSE FOR APHSCT FRANCES FRAGOS TOWNSEND
    NSC FOR MALVESTI
    STATE FOR NEA, NEA/IPA (MAHER), S/CT (AMBASSADOR CRUMPTON)
    JOINT STAFF FOR J-5
    HQ USEUCOM FOR ECJ-5 (KLOTHE)
    PENTAGON FOR OSD ISRAEL DESK (ANDERSON)

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2026
    TAGS: PTER ECON PREL OVIP AMGT ASEC SY LE IS
    SUBJECT: APHSCT TOWNSEND'S NOVEMBER 12 MEETING WITH ISRAELI
    DMI FOCUSES ON SYRIA, WAR ON TERROR

    Classified By: Classified by Charge Gene Cretz. Reasons: 1.4 (b) (d).

    -------
    SUMMARY
    -------

    ¶1. (C) Israeli Director of Military Intelligence MGEN Amos
    Yadlin told Assistant to the President for Homeland
    Security and Counterterrorism (APHSCT) Frances Fragos
    Townsend November 12 that Israel distrusts Bashar Asad's
    overtures regarding peace with Israel. Yadlin believes
    Asad is actually preparing for the possibility of
    low-intensity conflict between the two countries, and asked
    for USG assistance in putting more pressure on Damascus.
    Yadlin said that all indicators suggest that Syria
    continues to supply weapons to Hizballah; meanwhile,
    Hizballah is "not in good shape" and is buying time to
    rebuild its infrastructure. Yadlin said that Israel is
    concerned about Al Qaeda's encroachment into the Middle
    East, including the Gaza Strip. He said that in the wake
    of the Baker-Hamilton Commission report, Israel might want
    to re-examine the situation in Iraq. Yadlin praised the
    U.S. for its successes in the War on Terror and volunteered
    any help Israel could provide. END SUMMARY.

    ------------------------------
    YADLIN SUGGESTS ENGAGING SYRIA
    ------------------------------

    ¶2. (C) Citing press reports, APHSCT Townsend asked Yadlin
    whether
    Israel is considering engagement with Syria. Yadlin
    characterized the reports as an "out-of-context leak" of
    discussions that took place the previous week on Israel's
    policy towards Syria, Lebanon and Iran. Yadlin said that
    Israel's policy towards Syria is to maintain the status
    quo, with a quiet border and neither peace nor war. He
    noted that Syrian President Bashar Asad, meanwhile, seems
    to be attempting to escalate tensions. Yadlin recounted
    that in the Syrian President's statements about openness to
    negotiating with Israel, Asad said that if his efforts to
    seek peace are not fruitful (which appears likely), then he
    will go to war. Asad has chosen this rhetorical position,
    Yadlin said, based on American performance in Iraq and
    Israel's performance in Lebanon. Knowing that he cannot
    fight a full-on war against Israel, Asad would prefer to
    engage in low-intensity conflict involving longer-range
    missiles and close combat between commando forces -- what
    Yadlin termed, "a low-signature war." Yadlin clarified
    that the position he took in the policy discussion -- which
    was leaked out of context -- was that in such a situation,
    Israel has a moral obligation to confront him to expose
    whether he
    genuinely seeks peace.

    ¶3. (C) Yadlin said the U.S. should push Asad harder, adding
    that Damascus is "not worried about sanctions, and the
    sanctions are not hurting Asad enough." Townsend agreed
    that Asad's behavior has worsened, and cautioned that
    engaging him now would reinforce his bad behavior and fail
    to separate Iran and Syria. Confronting Damascus, Yadlin
    said, could be a win/win tactic, furthering the peace
    process and exposing Asad's support for terrorism (even
    while he pays lip-service to pursuing peace). Yadlin gave
    Townsend a copy of GOI's ten recommendations on how to
    increase pressure on Asad, saying, "We have to take
    everything he cares about and make him pay."

    ---------------------------
    SYRIA RESUPPLYING HIZBALLAH
    ---------------------------

    ¶4. (C) Citing what he acknowledged is a patchwork of
    evidence and "no smoking gun," Yadlin said that Syria
    continues to supply Hizballah with weapons: "We see that
    the Iranians are sending containers belonging to a
    well-defined unit that deals in Zelzal missiles. We have
    Muhammed Suleiman doing business. We see a Hizballah
    logistics man involved. All are pieces. There is no
    concrete proof, but indications that transfers are taking
    place." Yadlin added that there is "not a full river" of
    armaments flowing into Lebanon, but a cluster of "little
    streams of support."

    ¶5. (C) Yadlin characterized Hizballah as "not in good
    shape," saying that the organization's "nightmare" is
    another war with Israel in the near future. He said that
    Hizballah needs time to rebuild houses, infrastructure, and
    its own political reputation before it would be ready for
    another confrontation.

    ------------------------------------------
    ASAD'S REGIME FACES NO THREATS FROM WITHIN
    ------------------------------------------

    ¶6. (C) In response to the Charge's question about whether
    Asad has solidified his position, Yadlin said that the
    Syrian leader is in a more confident position than he was a
    year and a half ago when he "withdrew from Lebanon in a
    panic." Yadlin said that Syria's priorities are A) regime
    stability; B) Lebanon; and C) the Golan Heights. Yadlin
    said that Israel sees no threat to Asad's regime from the
    inside. He pointed to an increase in the price of oil,
    along with support from Iran and Russia, as the reasons for
    Asad's strengthened position.

    --------------------------------
    YADLIN: AL QAEDA IS MOVING WEST
    --------------------------------

    ¶7. (C) Yadlin said that a "preponderance of overt speeches
    and secret messages" suggests that that Al Qaeda has been
    moving west. He claimed that some Al Qaeda officials are
    currently in Iran and move to Iraq from time to time. He
    claimed that other Al Qaeda figures who have appeared in
    Iraq and Jordan were behind terrorist attacks in countries
    neighboring Israel over the past two years. At the end of
    2005, Al Qaeda even launched rockets towards Israel from
    Lebanon. He added that in Gaza, a former Fatah faction has
    moved closer to Al Qaeda's ideology. Yadlin said that Al
    Qaeda is not really an organization, but an idea that
    people join. When Townsend asked Yadlin's thoughts on
    cooperation between al-Qaida and Shia groups, Yadlin observed
    that Hizballah hates Al Qaeda more than it wants to cooperate
    with it.

    -------------------------
    ISRAEL TO RE-EXAMINE IRAQ
    -------------------------

    ¶8. (C) Saying that "we have to go back and look at Iraq
    more carefully," Yadlin expressed interest in what the
    Baker-Hamilton Commission report would contain. Townsend
    said that whatever the panel suggests, the U.S. will
    consider all options that would improve the situation in
    Iraq. Yadlin replied that Iraq may pose more dangers and
    opportunities for Israel now.

    ----------------------------------------
    YADLIN: U.S. SUCCESSFUL IN WAR ON TERROR
    ----------------------------------------

    ¶9. (C) Yadlin concluded the meeting by saying that the U.S.
    has been successful in the War on Terror. He asked if the
    American people are prepared for another five years in the
    War on Terror. Townsend replied that optimism is a trait
    that is fundamental to the American character and that we
    must guard against optimism leading to complacency. Citing
    the recent airline plot, she noted there must be an
    acknowledgement of the continuing challenge of terror.
    Yadlin said that
    Israel has dramatically reduced Palestinian terrorism, and
    that as a result, Israel's economic indicators have
    rebounded. Yadlin emphasized Israel's support for the U.S.
    in fighting terror. "We share the same enemies and the
    same values," he said, and he stands ready to share any
    intelligence requested.

    ¶10. (C) This cable has been cleared by APHSCT Frances
    Fragos Townsend.

    ********************************************* ********************
    Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website:
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    ********************************************* ********************
    CRETZ

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