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### Viewing cable 06MANAGUA863, THE GLOVES ARE OFF -- MONTEALEGRE TO RUN ON OWN

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06MANAGUA863 | 2006-04-19 22:19 | 2011-07-27 20:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Managua

`

    VZCZCXYZ0020
    PP RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHMU #0863/01 1092219
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 192219Z APR 06
    FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6025
    INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0626
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 000863

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    DEPT FOR WHA/CEN

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/19/2016
    TAGS: KDEM NU PGOV PINR PREL EAID KCOR PHUM
    SUBJECT: THE GLOVES ARE OFF -- MONTEALEGRE TO RUN ON OWN

    REF: MANAGUA 0854

    Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D).

    ¶1.  (C) SUMMARY: Now that it is clear that the Liberal
    Constitutional Party (PLC) will neither participate in
    multi-party primaries nor sideline Arnoldo Aleman (reftel),
    Eduardo Montealegre and his National Liberal
    Alliance-Conservative Party (ALN-PC) are determined to run on
    their own.  In Ambassador's April 18 meeting with Montealegre
    and his senior leadership, and in comments to the media
    following the event, the Ambassador noted that the ALN-PC is
    the only party that fully supports multi-party primaries and
    reiterated that the U.S. cannot maintain positive relations
    with a PLC under Aleman's control.  Montealegre dispelled PLC
    assertions that he has designated himself as his alliance's
    candidate, noting that over 150,000 affiliates and alliance
    party members have formally endorsed him.  While he has
    developed political machinery and performs well in the polls,
    Montealegre will need a concerted, generously financed
    campaign to effectively convey his message to Nicaraguans and
    turn his popular support into votes on Election Day.  END
    SUMMARY.

    EDUARDO GOES IT ALONE
    - - - - - - - - - --

    ¶2.  (C) Ambassador and Emboffs met on April 18 with ALN-PC
    presidential candidate Eduardo Montealegre and his senior
    leadership as part of Embassy's effort to encourage
    multi-party primaries.  Among Montealegre's 22 supporters
    were Mario Rappaciolli and Alejandro Bolanos (PC); Salvador
    Talavera (Partido Resistencia Nicaraguense, or PRN); Eliseo
    Nunez (Movimiento Salvacion Liberal, or MSL); Roberto Urroz
    (Movimiento Democratico Nicaraguense, or MDN); Indalecio
    Rodriguez and Oscar Sobalvarro, otherwise known as Comandante
    Ruben (PLI); Jose Esteban Gonzalez (Partido Social Cristiano,
    or PSC); and Assembly Deputies Maria Eugenia Sequeira,
    Yamileth Bonilla.

    ¶3.  (C) Appreciative of the Ambassador's visit and our offer
    to support multi-party primaries, Montealegre welcomed the
    Ambassador to his new, freshly painted headquarters.
    Montealegre repeated his willingness to compete against Rizo
    if Aleman were to step aside, noting that an alliance with
    the PLC under Aleman's control is untenable, as it would
    damage the ALN-PC and Nicaragua.  At this juncture, a
    four-way race is inevitable and the best option to win the
    November election, he said.  Although the task ahead is
    difficult, "a war of nerves," Montealegre was confident he is
    up to the challenge so long as he focuses on the main
    objective - the needs and aspirations of the Nicaraguan
    people.

    FOUR-WAY RACE GOOD FOR DEMOCRACY, ROUGH ON THE NERVES
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶4.  (C) Ambassador concurred that a four-way race is in the
    cards, jesting that, while tough on the nerves, such a
    competition is probably healthier for Nicaragua's democracy.
    He added that this election poses a double challenge, the
    struggle between democracy and the FSLN and the competition
    between anti-Pact and pro-Pact parties.  Referring to the
    Department's statement on Nicaragua, the Ambassador assured
    Montealegre that the U.S. stands firm vis a vis its position
    on Aleman and the PLC.  (Note: Press coverage of the
    Department's statement was ample, generating several
    questions for the press availability following the
    Ambassador's meeting.  The statement was reprinted in full by
    national dailies and gossip magazines and read on several
    nation-wide radio and television stations.  While some
    outlets heralded the statement as another sign the USG will
    not support the PLC, others termed it another sign of U.S.
    interventionism.)

    ¶5.  (C) Ambassador also reiterated the U.S. commitment to
    helping Nicaragua hold clean, fair, transparent, and
    inclusive elections, informing the group  that the
    international community is well underway in its preparations
    for observation.  He shared that the OAS observation team
    will arrive next week and will remain in Nicaragua until
    January.  He explained that the USG is contributing USD 2.5
    million to the OAS efforts and millions more to assist
    domestic observation and voter education, and to provide
    technical assistance to the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE).

    WITH A LITTLE HELP FROM OUR FRIENDS
    - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - -- -

    ¶6.  (C) Endorsing his party's support for Montealegre, PC
    leader Mario Rappaciolli recounted that the Conservatives had
    erred by running on their own in the 1996 and 2001 national
    elections.  They had fared miserably and now realize that
    they must unite with other parties for the sake of economic
    and democratic stability.  To Rappaciolli, the PLC is no
    longer an option, as it is a party held hostage by one
    family.  Nicaraguans have reached a fork in the road and must
    now choose to move forward or to continue along the current
    ineffective path.  Lauding the Department's April 18
    statement on Nicaragua, which reiterates the Ambassador's
    call on the PLC to distance itself from Aleman and to compete
    in open multi-party primaries, Rappaciolli asserted that U.S.
    opinion counts in Nicaragua and our help can bolster
    Montealegre's chances to win in November.

    ¶7.  (C) Rappaciolli offered that high voter turnout will work
    in Montealegre's favor, asserting that at least 60 percent of
    "independent" voters will choose Montealegre if they are
    ultimately motivated to vote.  He added that the parties
    supporting Montealegre combined garnered 19% of the 2004
    municipal election votes, a significant number.  (Note:
    Rappaciolli's estimate includes votes for APRE, an alliance
    that the PC belonged to until 2005.  The rest of APRE is
    currently divided between supporting the PLC and ALN-PC,
    though APRE's official leadership has clearly tilted towards
    the PLC.  End Note.)  Fellow Conservative Alejandro Bolanos
    (President Bolanos' nephew) emphasized the need to change
    Nicaragua's culture of fear.  Many Nicaraguans customarily
    vote against the Sandinistas and Daniel Ortega rather than
    voting for a better future, he explained, asserting that
    Nicaragua's culture of fear has actually strengthened the
    FSLN.  The moment has arrived for Nicaraguans to transform
    this fear into a vote for c
    hange, Montealegre, concluded Bolanos.

    RESISTANCE: PLEASE DON'T ABANDON US MID-STREAM
    - - - - - - - - - - - - -  - - -  - - - - - -

    ¶8.  (C)  Salvador Talavera (PRN) emphasized his goal to
    consolidate Nicaragua's numerous Resistance groups to rally
    around Montealegre.  He echoed Rappaciolli's call for U.S.
    support, noting that some of the many Resistance groups
    hesitate to endorse Montealegre because they fear the U.S.
    will flinch and support the PLC as the November nears.  The
    State Department's statement and the Ambassador's visit to
    ALN headquarters have assuaged some of this fear, he said,
    adding that two more Resistance groups may join Montealegre
    next week.  According to Talavera, the PRN is the main
    Resistance party and contains two factions, one under
    Comandante Ruben, and the other under Popo Chamorro.  A
    number of sub-groups are affiliated with these factions.

    ¶9.  (C)  According to PLI/Resistance member Indalecio
    Rodriguez, Nicaragua's new political leaders must seek full
    democracy for its people.  The PLI had endorsed Montealegre
    in his 1,500-member convention on September 4, 2005 and
    ratified its support last week, he said.  He explained that
    PLI's support for Montealegre is based on common principles:
    anti-autocracy, anti-FSLN (who he termed false Robin Hoods),
    and anti-corruption.  Roberto Urroz (MDN) recounted his
    party's long struggle for democracy, first against Somoza,
    then the FSLN, and now against the FSLN-PLC Pact.  He
    justified MDN's support for Montealegre because he is the
    candidate best suited to lead Nicaragua forward by breaking
    the pact and reducing poverty and corruption.

    ¶10.  (C)  PLI colleague Comandante Ruben asserted that the
    Resistance still has a role to play, noting that many
    Resistance members who have supported the PLC at the
    municipal level in the past are disillusioned and willing to
    support Montealegre.  For the Resistance, it is especially
    hard to accept that after 16 years of democracy and so much
    sacrifice, the Liberals have surrendered space to the FSLN to
    protect Aleman.  Now more than ever, U.S. support will be
    determinate in the November election.

    UNIONS SUPPORT EDUARDO
    - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶11.  (C) According to PSC leader Jose Esteban Gonzalez,
    Montealegre is attracting considerable support from
    Nicaragua's non-Sandinista unions.  He shared that a number
    of these unions will soon publicly endorse Montealegre.
    (Comment:  In a recent poll, Montealegre attracted
    considerable support from working class respondents.  End
    Comment.)

    MSL LENDS ITS CASILLA, IRRECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES WITH PLC
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶12.  (C)  MSL leader Carlos Garcia, a former president of the
    PLC, explained his party's support for Montealegre and its
    decision to lend Montealegre its spot (casilla) on the
    ballot.  According to Garcia, the MSL broke ranks with the
    PLC in 1998 in opposition to PLC leader Arnoldo Aleman's
    corruption and his decision to forge a pact with Daniel
    Ortega.  He announced that the MSL will formally select
    Eduardo Montealegre as its presidential candidate in its
    convention on April 23.

    MONTEALEGRE: MY CANDIDACY IS MORE DEMOCRATIC THAN RIZO'S
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶13.  (C) Replying to Ambassador's comment that the PLC cites
    its presidential convention as evidence that Rizo is a
    democratically elected candidate while Montealegre is not,
    Montealegre noted that three of the four official parties in
    his alliance have already held conventions to select him as
    their candidate.  The fourth party, the PC, will hold a
    convention on April 30.  Further, all of the 148,000 or so
    members of his movement Vamos con Eduardo have endorsed him
    in writing.  While some 400 or so PLC conventioneers voted
    for Rizo, he enjoys the official support of over 150,000,
    argued Montealegre.  Further, on May 14, Vamos con Eduardo
    affiliates will hold primaries to vote for National Assembly
    departmental deputies and the ALN-PC will also do a poll to
    verify the popularity of the candidates.

    DISPELLING THE PARTY MACHINERY MYTH
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶14.  (C) To Ambassador's query regarding the strength of
    Montealegre's political machinery, Montealegre replied that
    PLC claims that Montealegre lacks the machinery to defend his
    votes and win the election are bogus.  Montealegre said he
    has worked hard over the months to build his alliance and its
    large membership attests to his success.  In the Atlantic
    Coast election, for example, the ALN-PC had party monitors
    (fiscals) positioned in 95% of the polling stations.
    "Moreover, organizations don't win elections, rather
    candidates with the right messages do," argued Montealegre.

    A VOTE FOR RIZO IS A VOTE FOR ALEMAN
    - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - --

    ¶15.  (C) Her usual direct, succinct self, ALN-PC Assembly
    lawmaker Maria Eugenia Sequeira summed up the difference
    between Montealegre and Rizo: "A vote for Rizo is a vote for
    Aleman."  She asserted that Montealegre offers a new option
    not only for Nicaragua, but also for the region, as he
    represents an alternative to stem Latin America's rise in
    leftist leaders.  Colleague Yamileth Bonilla opined that the
    real challenge for Montealegre is to promote the vote, defend
    it, and monitor the CSE and its local offices to make sure
    the electoral process is fair and transparent.  She added
    that marketing the ALN-PC casilla will also be prove critical
    to Montealegre's success, noting that in the Atlantic Coast
    elections, many voters who supported Montealegre were
    confused whether they should mark casilla 1 (PLC) or casilla
    9 (ALN-PC) because the still associate him with the PLC.
    Marketing Montealegre and his casilla 9 as a new political
    product requires substantial resources, said Bonilla.

    COMMENT
    - - - -

    ¶16.  (C) In the latest CID-Gallup countrywide poll, taken
    after the PLC announced the selection of Jose Rizo as its
    presidential candidate, Eduardo Montealegre still leads the
    pack with 22 percent, followed by Herty Lewites (18%), Daniel
    Ortega (16%) and Rizo (13%).  Among those most likely to
    vote, Montealegre's percentage stands at 26%, followed by
    Ortega (20%), Lewites (18%), and Rizo (17%).  Montealegre
    offers voters the best option to move Nicaragua along a
    democratic, just, and prosperous future.  While he has
    developed political machinery and performs well in the polls,
    Montealegre will need a concerted, generously financed
    campaign to effectively convey his message to Nicaraguans and
    turn his popular support into votes on Election Day.  To this
    end, he requires the support of local, regional, and U.S.
    capital.
    TRIVELLI

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