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### Viewing cable 07BRASILIA1485, EMBASSY BRASILIA CY 2006 CLASS B REFERRAL VALIDATION STUDY

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07BRASILIA1485 | 2007-08-03 15:20 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Brasilia

`

    VZCZCXRO0846
    RR RUEHRG
    DE RUEHBR #1485/01 2151520
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 031520Z AUG 07
    FM AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9670
    INFO RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO 0546
    RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 4890
    RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 7018

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRASILIA 001485

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    DEPT FOR CA/VO/F/P, CA/FPP, CA/EX

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: CVIS KRFD CMGT BR
    SUBJECT: EMBASSY BRASILIA CY 2006 CLASS B REFERRAL VALIDATION STUDY
    REF: (A) 04 STATE 172283, (B) 00 STATE 63463, (C) CA/FPP WEB PAGE

    ¶1.  Summary: In July 2007, the consular section of Embassy Brasilia
    conducted a validation study of 475 class B Referral visas issued
    between January 1st, 2006 and December 31st, 2006.  Results from
    this random sample showed that 71% returned, 2% did not return, 23%
    never traveled; 4% were inconclusive. We also conducted a second
    study of all Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) class B Referrals.
    Within this smaller group, we found that 71% returned, 10% never
    traveled and no overstays were detected; 19% were inconclusive
    compared to 4% inconclusive cases in the first random sample.  While
    we estimated a 5% overstay rate for the overall B referral survey,
    we only found a 2% rate.  We initially believed that FAS cases were
    more likely to overstay, but the study proved that this assumption
    was incorrect as there were no confirmed overstay FAS cases.  We
    will follow up with FAS and DHS to determine the status of the
    unconfirmed cases.  End Summary.

    ¶2.  Post classified the study results into four categories:
    confirmed return or current legal stay; confirmed overstay; never
    traveled and inconclusive - applicants unable to contact.  We
    followed CA/FPP guidance in developing the study.  Our target range
    was between January 1, 2006 and December 31, 2006 and included all
    475 Class B referral visas issued during this period.  Our maximum
    estimate of overstays was 5% and our proposed sample size was 48
    with a sample interval of 10.  More details on statistical
    methodology paragraphs 6 & 7.

    Data Analysis General Observations

    ¶3.  After conducting the study through telephone calls, we
    determined that 71% of Embassy Brasilia Class B visa Referrals used
    their visas appropriately leaving within six months of arrival and
    23% never traveled (90% had to cancel and 10% had no intention of
    traveling when they applied for their visas).  We confirmed that
    only one person overstayed, 2% and could not reach 4%. This overstay
    rate of 2% is less than we had estimated with our 95% confidence
    level (Para 6)

    ¶4. The overstay was a male born in 1968 who received a class B
    referral from FAS after previous refusals. He is a farmer who was
    previously refused before being referred.  At both his first
    interview and his referred interview he claimed to be going to a The
    World Agriculture Expo in Tulane California.  FAS confirmed that he
    attended the conference.   We gave FAS the applicant's contact
    information to follow-up on his exact reason for overstay.

    The second study: FAS cases

    ¶5.  After analyzing the confirmed overstay in greater detail, post
    decided to conduct an investigation of all FAS referrals using the
    same statistical methodology. The assumption that FAS referrals
    might be associated with more overstays was incorrect.  Post
    concluded that 71% of all FAS Class B visa Referrals who were
    interviewed by Embassy Brasilia in 2006 left the United States
    within 6 months (the same percentage as the 1st random sample). We
    found no confirmed overstays, though we had many more inconclusive
    cases.  There were 19% inconclusive cases in the FAS pool and only
    4% in the regular class B referrals.  This could be because rural
    phone numbers are less reliable, but we plan to work with DHS and
    FAS to better determine the status of these cases.

    Methodology

    ¶6.  Post followed CA/FPP guidance for validation surveys per
    reftels. We organized a spreadsheet according to the following
    categories: Random Number, Sample Frequency, Gender, DOB,
    Nationality, phone number, alternate phone number, date to call,
    first call date, second call date (if missed on the first), third
    and final call date (if missed on first two) and four result
    columns: confirmed overstay, confirmed return, inconclusive, and
    never traveled. The sample size of all Class B referrals was 48.
    This was calculated using a 95% confidence level (95% certain) and
    the worst case scenario percentage of 50% per referral.

    ¶7.  For the second study of the FAS referrals, post calculated the
    random sample using a 99% confidence level with 76 referrals.  After
    omitting cases from the original random sample and applicants under
    ten, 58 cases remained.  Post contacted 70% of these cases to
    conduct the second analysis.  Overall, we called 100% of the Class B
    visa referral holders in both random samples and reached 90% of the
    candidates.

    Conclusion

    ¶8.  The point of this validation study was to test Embassy
    Brasilia's assumptions regarding potential overstay rates with Class

    BRASILIA 00001485  002 OF 002

    B referrals.  We estimated a 5% overstay rate with the initial
    random sample of 475 Class B referral visas, but there was only a 2%
    overstay rate.  We also believed that FAS cases would show a higher
    overstay rate but found no conclusive overstays. With both
    validation studies, 71% of the visa applicants returned, thus
    proving that the majority of Class B referrals are good cases.

    ¶9. After examining this validation study in greater detail, consular
    officers at post noted the following: (a) although most referrals
    are good cases, they should never be guaranteed a visa; the same
    adjudication procedures for non-referrals should be implemented
    during the interview process; (b) when receiving FAS referrals,
    officers should ask detailed case-specific questions (i.e. number of
    employees on farm, precise occupation, land ownership) and obtain
    better contact information; (c) if referred cases were previously
    denied,  new evidence provided in follow up interviews should be
    given very close attention. Post sees many farmers in our district
    and we will continue to work with FAS as the agricultural economy in
    Brazil continues to expand.

    SOBEL

`