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### Viewing cable 06PHNOMPENH1396, CAN CAMBODIA'S DEMOCRATIC FORCES UNITE FOR

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06PHNOMPENH1396 | 2006-08-03 00:27 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Phnom Penh

`

    VZCZCXRO8752
    OO RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH
    DE RUEHPF #1396/01 2150027
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 030027Z AUG 06
    FM AMEMBASSY PHNOM PENH
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7102
    INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM  PRIORITY

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PHNOM PENH 001396

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    STATE FOR EAP/MLS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/02/2016
    TAGS: PGOV KDEM CB
    SUBJECT: CAN CAMBODIA'S DEMOCRATIC FORCES UNITE FOR
    UPCOMING ELECTIONS?

    Classified By: ADCM Margaret McKean; Reason 1.4 (b) and (d)

     ¶1.  (SBU)  Summary.  On July 30, FUNCINPEC President Prince
    Norodom Ranariddh called on all parties to unite in 2008 and
    form an Alliance of Nationalists.  In practice, the weakened
    FUNCINPEC leader seeks to realign his party with the
    opposition Sam Rainsy Party (SRP) and other pro-democracy
    forces in the country to compete effectively in the 2008
    national elections.  CPP officials have dismissed the
    proposal; the SRP leadership will consider Ranariddh's
    proposal as long as the Prince steps down as FUNCINPEC
    President and agrees that Sam Rainsy lead the alliance.
    FUNCINPEC loyalists to the Prince have welcomed the
    initiative as a means to salvage the royalist party's
    following, as have other small political parties with little
    hope of capturing any seats in upcoming elections.  Civil
    society agrees that an alliance offers an opportunity for
    pro-democracy forces in 2008 -- given the 50 percent plus one
    formula, but note that Cambodia's democratic leaders have
    been unable to maintain a united front against the CPP in the
    past.  End Summary.

    Ranariddh Offers Proposal for Alliance
    --------------------------------------

    ¶2.  (U)  On July 30, FUNCINPEC leader Prince Norodom
    Ranariddh met with senior FUNCINPEC officials in Kuala
    Lumpur, Malaysia and announced a proposal Alliance of
    Nationalists to compete in national elections in 2008.  While
    theoretically open to all parties, the proposal is a means to
    rekindle an alliance of pro-democracy forces along the lines
    of the Alliance of Democrats (AD) that formed after the 2003
    elections.  The AD consisted of FUNCINPEC and the SRP, as
    both parties had won seats in the national elections.  The
    CPP had won the most seats but still lacked the necessary
    two-thirds majority in order to form a government, and needed
    one of the parties to join with it as a governing partner.
    In order to leverage their respective parties' seats into a
    better power-sharing agreement for both FUNCINPEC and SRP,
    the two parties (at Rainsy's initiative) formed the AD in
    order to win greater concessions from the CPP.  In the end,
    however, Ranariddh made a deal with Hun Sen and joined the
    government, leaving the SRP in opposition on its own.  A
    similar alliance took place following 1998 parliamentary
    elections, after which FUNCINPEC deserted the SRP.  This
    time, Ranariddh is proposing that the parties join forces
    ahead of the elections, rather than afterwards.

    ¶3.  (SBU)  Senior FUNCINPEC officials have welcomed the
    initiative, which offers a ray of hope that FUNCINPEC can
    maintain some of its party loyalists and compete in upcoming
    elections in a stronger position than they could in their
    current, divided and politically marginalized state.  With
    FUNCINPEC rank and file growing increasingly frustrated over
    the party's internal power struggles, the removal of
    FUNCINPEC officials from government positions, and lack of
    leadership and focus from Ranariddh, FUNCINPEC members have
    been defecting to the CPP as well as the SRP.  In order to
    halt the ongoing outflow of voters and reinvigorate
    confidence in the party, Ranariddh's proposal provides
    FUNCINPEC with hope that their party -- while unable to win a
    clear majority of seats outright in 2008 -- could get back
    into the political game with the SRP as a partner.  Serei
    Kosal, a Senior Minister in the government, claims that the
    Alliance of Nationalists is a strategy for winning the 2008
    elections if all pro-democracy forces unite.

    ¶4.  (U)  Ranariddh's proposed alliance was greeted
    enthusiastically by several small political parties,
    including the newly formed Community of Nationalists
    Alliance, headed by Prince Sisowath Thomico, former personal
    secretary to ex-King Sihanouk.  Thomico, who several months

    SIPDIS
    earlier had told the Embassy that he planned to announce a
    new political party, opted instead to form an alliance for
    the time being with plans to transition to a political party
    in November 2006.  The nationalist Khmer Front Party, headed
    by Suth Dina, has joined Thomico's alliance, as has Khieu
    Rada, President of the Khmer Unity Party.  Thomico has told
    the media that in order to join the Alliance of Nationalists,
    FUNCINPEC should break with its current governing partnership
    with the CPP.

    Sam Rainsy Considering Ranariddh's Proposal
    -------------------------------------------

    ¶5.  (C)  Senior SRP officials have indicated that they would
    be willing to rejoin an alliance with FUNCINPEC but only if
    Prince Ranariddh stepped down as leader of FUNCINPEC and Sam
    Rainsy became the leader of the alliance.  Some officials

    PHNOM PENH 00001396  002 OF 002

    expressed skepticism over the FUNCINPEC leader's intention,
    noting that the SRP had been deceived by Ranariddh in the
    past.  In a July 31 meeting with A/DCM, Rainsy said that he
    would consider Ranariddh's proposal but would proceed
    cautiously before entering into any partnership.  He and his
    wife, Tioulong Saumura, agreed that Ranariddh's initiative
    was a last grasp at keeping the ailing royalist party afloat
    with any hopes of retaining a future political role.  Noting
    that FUNCINPEC's ability to win National Assembly seats has
    consistently declined since 1993 as the SRP has continued to
    grow in strength in the last two elections, Rainsy claimed
    that the SRP is already gathering FUNCINPEC supporters at the
    grassroots level, and may not need to enter into an alliance.
     According to Ok Socheat, spokesperson for Prince Ranariddh,
    Sam Rainsy and Ranariddh may meet in August, as talks between
    the two parties continue.

    Civil Society Response
    ----------------------

    ¶6.  (SBU)  Representatives of civil society generally believe
    that an alliance of pro-democracy forces could strengthen the
    voice of the democratic opposition in upcoming elections, but
    they too remain skeptical of Ranariddh's intentions.  Hang
    Puthear, Director of the Neutral and Impartial Committee for
    Free and Fair Elections (NIFEC) views Ranariddh's proposal as
    FUNCINPEC's last chance for political life.  Puthear believes
    that Ranariddh should reform FUNCINPEC first and rebuild the
    party before entering into an alliance with the SRP and
    others.  Kek Galabru, Director of LICADHO, added that the
    question of who will lead the alliance is key.  The two
    parties have had difficulties in maintaining their alliance
    in the past and it remains an open question if the two men
    can put behind their personal differences in the interest of
    democracy.  Kul Panha of COMFREL (Committee for Free and Fair
    Elections) believes that the 50 percent plus one formula
    gives FUNCINPEC and SRP a new opportunity to provide real
    competition to the CPP in 2008.  Human rights leader Kem
    Sokha told the Ambassador and A/DCM that he has no position
    on the alliance and does not support the agenda of any single
    party.

    Comment
    -------

    ¶7.  (C)  In theory, a merging of pro-democracy forces to take
    advantage of the 50 percent plus one formula offers the best
    opportunity for democratic change in Cambodia; at the very
    least, it would give the CPP a challenge in the 2008
    elections.  The CPP's party structure remains stronger than
    either FUNCINPEC or the SRP with greater control down to the
    grassroots levels.  Both FUNCINPEC and the SRP would have to
    significantly ramp up their organizational capacity to mount
    a challenge, even if they did agree to unite.  In practice,
    however, Cambodia's democratic-minded politicians have been
    unable to keep their lingering personal animosities and egos
    in check and make the sacrifices necessary to hold an
    alliance together.  The CPP has proven adept at splintering
    the opposition, making a unified democratic front a difficult
    challenge.  We had heard proposals from FUNCINPEC and SRP
    officials for a joining of forces earlier in the year, but
    there was agreement that the formation of any alliance would
    likely be just before the 2008 elections so that the CPP
    would not have time to undermine the partnership.  FUNCINPEC
    officials will be returning shortly to Malaysia to discuss
    the SRP reaction with Ranariddh, and then come back to
    Cambodia early next week for further deliberations.  End
    Comment.
    MUSSOMELI

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