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### Viewing cable 08BRASILIA851, SENIOR BRAZILIAN DIPLOMAT TALKS MIDDLE EAST PEACE,

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08BRASILIA851 | 2008-06-20 19:35 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Brasilia

`

    VZCZCXRO4672
    RR RUEHRG
    DE RUEHBR #0851/01 1721935
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    R 201935Z JUN 08
    FM AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1926
    INFO RUEHAM/AMEMBASSY AMMAN 0297
    RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 6871
    RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 5595
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 4126
    RUEHDM/AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS 0074
    RUEHSB/AMEMBASSY HARARE 0041
    RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 7401
    RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0390
    RUEHTV/AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV 0159
    RUEHJM/AMCONSUL JERUSALEM 0015
    RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 8166
    RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 6293
    RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO 2263
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BRASILIA 000851

    SIPDIS

    NSC FOR ELLIOTT ABRAMS AND GARY TOMASULO; DEPARTMENT FOR
    S/P, WHA, NEA, AND AF

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/19/2018
    TAGS: PREL MNUC IR XF ZU BR
    SUBJECT: SENIOR BRAZILIAN DIPLOMAT TALKS MIDDLE EAST PEACE,
    IRAN, ZIMBABWE

    REF: A. STATE 55816
         ¶B. BRASILIA 809
         ¶C. BRASILIA 009
         ¶D. BRASILIA 064

    Classified By: Ambassador Clifford M. Sobel, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

     ¶1. (C) In an office call June 9, the Ambassador discussed
    Brazil's policies in the Middle East and Africa with Ministry
    of External Relations (MRE) Under Secretary for Political
    Affairs (II), Ambassador Roberto Jaguaribe.  Jaguaribe
    described an intensifying series of reciprocal visits with
    Middle Eastern countries over the next six months, including
    a visit by President Lula to the region and visits to Brazil
    by the king of Jordan and president of Syria.  Jaguaribe
    reiterated Brazil's view that all players should be engaged
    in the Middle East peace process, and that Brazil's sees its
    ability to talk to all parties as a "useful role."  He
    reiterated Brazil's view that engagement is the right
    approach with Iran, expressing some frustration with the UNSC
    approach to addressing Iran's nuclear ambitions while
    acknowledging that Iran needed to abide by UNSC decisions.
    Jaguaribe informed the Ambassador that Brazil will send
    observers to the run-off elections in Zimbabwe.  He indicated
    that he is eager to engage the USG further in discussions on
    both the Middle East and Africa.  Post believes such
    engagement would prove useful to U.S. interests.

    ---------------
    Middle East: Reciprocal Visits to Intensify
    --------------

    ¶2. (C) The Ambassador, joined by PolCouns, called on
    Jaguaribe following the two meetings Brazilian Ambassador to
    the United States Antonio Patriota had with NEA A/S Welch and
    AF A/S Frazer.  Jaguaribe was joined by MRE Middle East
    Department head Ambassador Sarkis Karmirian and Levant
    Division chief Minister Rodrigo do Amaral Souza.  At the
    outset of the meeting, Jaguaribe commented that the Iraqi
    Trade Minister was in Brasilia, and would soon be followed by
    the Iraqi Planning Minister.  Jaguaribe confirmed reports
    that the king of Jordan would be visiting this year.  He
    later mentioned that Syrian President Assad had also accepted
    an invitation to visit Brazil for later in the year.

    ¶3. (C) Jaguaribe told the Ambassador that he was planning to
    go to the Middle East in November or December, saying he had
    given less attention to it than the other regions he covers
    (Africa and Asia) because Brazil's special envoy for the
    Middle East, Amb. Affonso Celso de Ouro-Preto, travels there
    frequently.  He said that it is unlikely now that FM Celso
    Amorim would visit the region again "for specific bilateral
    purposes," but confirmed that President Lula had tentatively
    planned a trip for later in the year and that Amorim would
    accompany him.  According to Jaguaribe, Saudi Arabia, Israel,
    the Palestinian territories, and Jordan are on the tentative
    list of stops.  He said additional stops were unlikely,
    adding that Brazil's municipal elections in October, as well
    as the IBSA (India-Brazil-South Africa) summit in Delhi in
    October, the Africa-South America summit in Caracas in
    November, and the international renewable energy summit
    Brazil is hosting in November, will make for a busy second
    half of the year, and the Middle East trip might be pushed
    back to early 2009, when President Lula will likely travel to
    Doha for the ASSA (Arab States-South America) summit.

    -----------
    Middle East Peace: Solution Requires Engaging "All Players"
    -----------

    ¶4. (C) Jaguaribe told the Ambassador that he was "still
    encouraged" regarding the Annapolis process, but that he is
    hearing from regional and other key actors who are in a
    "somber mood" because of a "lack of progress on issues of

    BRASILIA 00000851  002.2 OF 004

    importance to the Palestinians."  He cited the new
    construction by Israel, and the Ambassador noted that the
    Secretary had spoken out strongly on that.  In Jaguaribe's
    view, the Palestinian Authority was counting on the peace
    process to deliver and undermine Hamas.  This was not
    happening, and there is an "increasing perception that Abu
    Mazen is losing his grip."  Jaguaribe noted the "positive
    development" regarding Israel's negotiations with Syria,
    suggesting that this has now replaced Annapolis as the
    "defining issue" moving the peace process forward.  But he
    suggested that achieving results from these and the other
    negotiations Israel is undertaking would be difficult without
    leadership of the right "stature" there.

    ¶5. (C) Jaguaribe described the Israeli-Palestinian peace
    process as the "core issue" of the region, one which touches
    every other issue in the Middle East.  For this reason, he
    suggested, a "more differentiated" approach will be necessary
    than in the past.  He said that Brazil does not see itself as
    having a major role to play in the peace process, but the GOB
    has been "called by some parties," and particularly "our
    Lebanese friends," to get more involved.  He said Brazil is
    "available" to help, and believes it presents a "credible
    face to all actors."

    ¶6. (C) Jaguaribe stressed that without all relevant players,
    including Hamas, Hizballah, and Iran, there could be no
    lasting solution.  The Ambassador noted that we have been
    clear that it is not a question of whether to talk with the
    different parties, but under what conditions.  He noted that
    the issue of what dialogue to undertake in the Middle East is
    very sensitive and now the subject of public debate in the
    United States, including by our presidential candidates.
    Jaguaribe indicating he was following the U.S. debate on the
    issue, but reiterated that it was Brazil's view that it is
    important to talk with all the players.  "It is useful to
    everyone," he added, "that some countries can do that."  The
    Ambassador asked if Brazil still hoped to hold a meeting of
    Israeli and Palestinian civil society actors.  Jaguaribe said
    they believe it is a good idea to engage non-governmental
    actors as an additional channel for opening discussion, but
    indicated there are no specific plans to organize a meeting
    at this point.

    ------------
    Iran: Brazil Favors Frank Engagement
    ------------

    ¶7. (C) The Ambassador raised the importance of pushing Iran
    in the right direction with regard to its nuclear ambitions
    and said that we hope Brazil will remain sensitive to the
    signals it is sending.  Jaguaribe said that Brazil's
    relations with Iran were, first, based on a "significant"
    trade relationship.  Brazil does not have the level of trade
    that Japan, Italy, Germany, and other EU countries have with
    Iran, he said, nor does it buy much in the way of Iranian
    imports, as EU countries do.  But Brazil does sell two
    billion dollars in exports to Iran per year.  He said that
    Petrobras is "very careful" in its dealings with Iran because
    it is listed on the New York Stock Exchange and Brazil is
    careful to comply with UNSC resolutions, "even when we
    disagree with them."  Brazil understands Iran's interest in
    developing "legitimate" nuclear capabilities, and shares
    concerns about the "corollary" capabilities Iran may be
    trying to develop.  However, Brazil is concerned that the
    current approach to Iran essentially "questions the NPT" by
    suggesting that the safeguards in it are not sufficient.
    Brazil is "a party to the NPT, but not a fan of it," he said,
    and the problem with Iran has pointed to one of the
    weaknesses in the NPT.

    ¶8. (C) Jaguaribe said that they had had "a very frank
    discussion" with Iran recently.  They told the Iranians that
    Brazil's nuclear program was not an issue in South America

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    because Brazil has achieved a "level of confidence" in the
    region.  Iran needs to do the same before it can expect to
    proceed without problems.  The Iranians complained that they
    had been singled out by the UNSC when "Israel has an arsenal
    of bombs," and argued that these matters should be dealt with
    in the IAEA, not the UNSC.  According to Jaguaribe, they told
    the Iranians that Brazil agrees, but that "the Security
    Council decides what is a security issue and we must abide by
    its decisions."

    ¶9. (C) Jaguaribe concluded that it is Brazil's view that
    engagement, not isolation, is the appropriate approach to
    Iran.  With the exception of Israel, he said, Iran is the
    "most democratic country in the Middle East"--restricted
    still, of course, but better than others in the region.
    Although Iranian President Ahmedinejad's rhetoric is clearly
    outrageous in some cases, Brazil sees this as domestic
    posturing, adding that Ahmedinejad's position is only helped
    by "creating conflict."  With thousands of years of history
    behind them, the Iranians are very self-conscious regarding
    their importance, Jaguaribe said, and it is important to pay
    attention to that.  The Ambassador stressed the importance of
    not providing positive reinforcement to Ahmedinejad's
    rhetoric and giving him the opportunity to say that he has
    Brazil's support.  He said that the EU has tried dialogue and
    not had much success, and noted that Iran has made a
    conscious decision to sacrifice full development of its oil
    wealth in the interest of pursuing its nuclear ambitions.
    Jaguaribe acknowledged an "enormous effort" by Iran to engage
    Brazil, but said Brazil has been clear with Iran that Iran
    must make a move if the current impasse is to be overcome.

    --------------------
    Brazil Wants to Deepen Bilateral Discussion on Middle East
    --------------------

    ¶10. (C) In light of the meeting between Ambassador Patriota
    and NEA A/S Welch, Jaguaribe said that he hoped to be able to
    travel to Washington in September to continue the dialogue
    with us.  The Ambassador encouraged this, adding that he was
    hoping that we could bring a senior-level USG official to
    Brazil in the next few months to deepen the dialogue further
    on Middle East issues.

    ------------------
    Africa: Observers to Zimbabwe; Interest in Discussions
    ------------------

    ¶11. (C) In a similar vein, Jaguaribe said he was pleased to
    hear from Ambassador Patriota that AF A/S Frazer would visit
    Brazil to talk about cooperation in Africa.  He informed the
    Ambassador that, at South Africa's insistence, Brazil had
    decided to send observers to Zimbabwe for the June 27 run-off
    election as part of the SADC delegation (refs A and B).  He
    added that the first-round elections had been "exceptionally
    good" by African standards.

    ---------------------
    Comment: More Evidence that Brazil is Stepping Out
    ---------------------

    ¶12. (C) As with his discussion last fall with WHA A/S Shannon
    (ref C), Jaguaribe showed himself to be an open and
    informative interlocutor who is clearly on top of his brief.
    Post will continue to engage him and his staff, and believes
    that discussion between him and both NEA and AF would prove
    useful to U.S. interests.

    ¶13. (C) Jaguaribe's comments confirm our impressions that
    Brazil is feeling increasingly confident engaging on the
    Middle East (septel) and Africa (ref D).  In our view, the
    sense of empowerment that Brazilians feel as a result of
    being included in the Annapolis process can be used, to a
    limited degree, to help keep them on track in their

    BRASILIA 00000851  004 OF 004

    pronouncements.  It is important for the GOB to understand
    clearly where our redlines lie as they increase their
    engagement.

    ¶14. (C) It is also interesting that, according to Jaguaribe,
    it was South Africa's approach that was decisive in obtaining
    Brazil's agreement to send observers to Zimbabwe.  This
    suggests that approaches through Brazil's new
    developing-country partners may be valuable with regard to
    Brazilian participation in non-traditional areas such as
    peacekeeping in Darfur.
    SOBEL

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