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### Viewing cable 07MANAGUA2446, CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM AIMED TO PERPETUATE

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07MANAGUA2446 | 2007-11-07 22:45 | 2011-06-23 08:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Managua

`

    VZCZCXRO0813
    PP RUEHLMC
    DE RUEHMU #2446/01 3112245
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 072245Z NOV 07
    FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1649
    INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUMIAAA/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHDC PRIORITY
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAGUA 002446

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/06/2017
    TAGS: PGOV PREL KCOR KDEM NU
    SUBJECT: CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM AIMED TO PERPETUATE
    STRANGLEHOLD ON DEMOCRACY

    Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli, reason 1.4 (b) and (d)

    ¶1.   (SBU) Summary:  Constitutional reform is the hot
    political topic of the moment in Nicaragua.  The Sandinista
    Front for National Liberation (FSLN) and the Constitutional
    Liberal Party (PLC) are privately negotiating a major
    overhaul of the Nicaraguan body politic, focused on creating
    likely the first true parliamentary system -- including the
    position of a powerful Prime Minister -- in any Latin
    American country.  The main proponents for these proposed
    changes are President Daniel Ortega and former president and
    convicted felon Arnoldo Aleman.  These mooted constitutional
    reforms are little more than a thinly veiled attempt to
    perpetuate indefinitely the Ortega-Aleman power-sharing
    "pacto." A November 1 decision by a majority of the PLC
    National Assembly Deputies appears to have blocked the
    changes for now, but not the effort of Ortega and Aleman to
    remain in power beyond 2011, by hook or by crook.  End
    summary.

    Key Proposed Amendments
    - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶2.  (U) According to drafts provided to the press and the
    Embassy, Aleman and Ortega have agreed upon a range of
    sweeping changes to the Constitution that would fundamentally
    alter the governmental structure from one in which power is
    split between the executive and legislative branches to a
    quasi-parliamentary system headed by a strong Prime Minister,
    a weak President, a small and more susceptible National
    Assembly, and a court system fully subjugated to the
    authority of the Prime Minister and National Assembly.
    Constitutional changes require a 60-percent majority vote in
    two consecutive legislative years.

    ¶3. (U) Key amendments made public include:

    Article 34 - A convicted criminal whose case is still in the
    appeals process would retain all legal rights provided by the
    Constitution.  This provision would have the effect of
    restoring Aleman's full legal rights, including to vote and
    run for office.

    Article 129 - would eliminate the Supreme Electoral Council
    (CSE) as an independent branch of government and replace it
    with a new "Electoral Institute" named by the National
    Assembly.

    Article 133 - would: 1) reduce the number of National
    Assembly Deputies from 90 to 70; 2) extend the term for
    deputies from five to six years; 3) provide all presidents
    and first runners-up since 1984 Deputy slots for life,
    including Ortega, Violeta Chamorro, Arnoldo Aleman, Enrique
    Bolanos and Daniel Ortega; 4) eliminate the re-election of
    Deputies; and, 5) prohibit Deputies from being members of the
    Prime Minister's Cabinet.

    Article 138 - The National Assembly would elect from among
    the Deputies a Prime Minister, with 60 percent of the vote.
    The Prime Minister would be confirmed by the President.  If a
    Prime Minister is not selected within 30 days, the President
    would have the authority to send up to three names to the
    Assembly for a vote.  If none of these is selected, the
    President would have the authority to dissolve the Assembly
    and call for elections in sixty days.  In the interim, the
    President would enjoy the full authority to govern the
    country.  Article 138 also would provide for the removal of
    the Prime Minister on a 60 percent vote in a "no
    confidence/vota de censura" vote and would provide for life
    terms for justices of the Supreme Court.

    Article 143 - would eliminate the veto power of the President.

    Article 144 - divides the executive functions of the
    government between the President, who would be the head of
    state and would control the armed forces and police, and the
    Prime Minister, who would be the head of government.

    Article 145 - would eliminate the office of the Vice
    President.

    Article 147 - would require a vote of 50 percent plus one of
    votes cast to elect a President.  This provision would also
    eliminate the current prohibition on re-election of the
    sitting President and on holding consecutive terms in office.

    Article 148 - would set the term for the President at six
    years.  Once the President leaves office, he or she would
    become a member of the National Assembly for life and would
    continue to hold immunity from prosecution.

    Other Key Provisions:

    -- All elections (presidential, National Assembly and
    municipal) would be held at the same time starting in
    November 2011.
    -- Mayors elected in November 2008 would end their term in
    2011, when the new rules on elections and terms would come
    into effect.
    -- Although Deputies cannot be re-elected, those currently
    holding seats would be eligible to run again in 2011, but
    could not be re-elected after that.
    -- Raise the voting age from sixteen to eighteen.

    Aleman as Kingmaker or Overplaying His Hand?
    -------------------------------------------

    ¶3.  (C) PLC Deputy and Chairman of the Justice Committee Jose
    Pallais has told us privately that the underlying intent of
    these changes is to allow Ortega to remain in control after
    his current term of office expires in 2011.  Under existing
    constitutional rules, Ortega would have to wait a whole
    presidential term (i.e. until 2016) before he would be
    eligible to stand again as president.  Pallais believes
    Aleman will continue to support Ortega in this effort if he
    sees sufficient personal benefit, but the move presents
    dangers for him.  According to Pallais, if Aleman succeeds in
    delivering the approximately 18 votes needed by Ortega to
    meet the 60-percent majority needed to effect constitutional
    changes, he will completely alienate all grass-roots Liberals
    and destroy the PLC.  If, however, Aleman promises to support
    to Ortega but can not deliver, this failure will deliver a
    mortal blow to his long and dirty political career;
    effectively, he will have lost what amounts to an internal
    vote-of-confidence.  Backing Ortega is a lose-lose
    proposition for Aleman, Pallais commented, so Aleman will do
    so only if potential the reward is high.

    ¶4.  (C) The rumblings of discontent about constitutional
    change within the PLC are significant.  In a meeting of the
    PLC deputies in Montelimar on November 1, a majority of the
    deputies voted not to support the proposed constitutional
    changes this year or in 2008 and to seek a public referendum
    before any constitutional reforms are enacted.  Even PLC
    members who are widely considered close to Aleman, such as
    PLC First Secretary Wilfredo Navarro and ex-Foreign Minister
    Francisco Aguirre Sacasa, are publicly voicing their
    discontent.  Maximino Rodriguez, chief of the party in the
    Assembly, told us that it would be "political suicide" for
    any deputy to vote for these reforms now, as the base and a
    growing number of the deputies are very angry that Aleman
    pre-cooked the changes with Ortega and then presented them to
    PLC deputies for approval.  In Rodriguez's view, the "reform"
    effort is now "dead" for this legislative term.

    COMMENT:
    -------

    ¶5. (C) One of the ongoing debates surrounding the proposed
    constitutional changes is whether these reforms are simply a
    smokescreen by the Ortega-Aleman pacto to divert attention
    away from other issues, including the GON's poor performance,
    and to derail opposition unity efforts -- or whether these
    proposals represent instead a real effort at a lasting power
    grab that would perpetuate the pacto's hold.  As the debate
    over the amendments continues, we believe the two views are
    mutually compatible.  Indeed, the furor over the changes has
    succeeded in slowing down efforts by the ALN and PLC to
    develop a mechanism to jointly participate in the 2008
    municipal elections and has served to exacerbate tensions
    between and within the parties.  At the same time, it is
    clear that Ortega and Aleman are keenly interested in
    preserving and perpetuating their hold on power and are
    seeking some manner to institutionalize that hold prior to
    the municipal elections.  If these constitutional changes
    fail, we can be sure we'll see some other effort by Ortega in
    the coming weeks and months, with the collusion of Aleman, to
    remain in power beyond 2011.

    TRIVELLI

`