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### Viewing cable 06BRASILIA362, BRAZIL AND ARGENTINA AGREE ON A TRADE SAFEGUARDS MECHANISM;

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06BRASILIA362 | 2006-02-21 16:28 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Brasilia

`

    VZCZCXRO3931
    RR RUEHRG
    DE RUEHBR #0362/01 0521628
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 211628Z FEB 06
    FM AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4593
    INFO RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO 6419
    RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 4367
    RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 1572
    RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 5245
    RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 3811
    RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ 4389
    RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 6071
    RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 5357
    RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 2868
    RUCPDO/USDOC WASHDC

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRASILIA 000362

    SIPDIS

    DEPT PLEASE PASS TO USTR - MSULLIVAN
    USDOC FOR 3134/USFCS/OIO/WH/EOLSON
    USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC/MWARD
    NSC FOR SCRONIN

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ETRD EIND BR
    SUBJECT: BRAZIL AND ARGENTINA AGREE ON A TRADE SAFEGUARDS MECHANISM;
    ACCORD ON AUTOS STILL PENDING

    ¶1. (SBU) Summary. Tensions between Brazil and Argentina over access
    to each other's markets continue.  In early February, Brazil and
    Argentina finalized their long-running negotiations on a bilateral
    trade safeguards mechanism should excessive exports from one country
    endanger an industry in the other.  While Brazilian industry (and
    some within the government) saw the accord as acquiescing to
    Argentina's one-sided demands, Foreign Minister Amorim - anxious to
    maintain good relations with the country's neighbors to the south --
    defended the agreement as fair and balanced.  Meanwhile, contentious
    talks are still ongoing regarding renewal of the current automotive
    export agreement between the two countries.  The rancorous
    atmosphere surrounding these two sets of negotiations underscores
    the difficult nature of the Brazil-Argentina relationship.  Many
    here are beginning to wonder whether Brazil's traditional policy of
    using Mercosul as a device to manage relations with the Argentines
    is really worth the trouble.  End Summary.

    White Smoke on Safeguards
    -------------------------

    ¶2. (SBU) After months of acrimonious talks, Brazil and Argentina
    finally agreed to a bilateral "competitive adaptation mechanism"
    (MAC), i.e., a framework for imposing import safeguards.  The
    provisions of this mechanism would be invoked whenever businesses
    representing 35% of a specific industry filed a request with their
    government.  Thereupon would follow a series of informal
    industry-to-industry meetings and separate government investigations
    (possibly lasting up to 340 days), culminating in a potential panel
    decision should the two sides prove unable to agree.  The three
    panel experts -- one Argentine, one Brazilian, and the third from a
    non-Mercosul country - would then render judgment, with the
    complainant country, should it prevail, receiving authorization to
    impose quotas lasting for 3 years (with a possible 1 year
    extension).  Any exports from the respondent country above the quota
    would be subject to the Mercosul Common External Tariff for that
    product, minus ten percent.

    ¶3. (U) According to the press, the Brazilian export sectors most
    likely to be negatively affected by the MAC include footwear,
    textiles, appliances, steel, poultry and pork.  Certain Brazilian
    agricultural producers (wheat, rice, milk, garlic, onions, fruits,
    and wine) are considering using the MAC offensively against
    Argentina.

    But Still Waiting on An Automotive Industry Accord
    -------------------------------------------

    ¶4. (SBU) The agreement on the MAC leaves renewal of the automotive
    industry accord as the principal item remaining on the bilateral
    trade agenda.  Under the "flex" system contained in that document,
    for every US$2.60 exported by one country (Brazil), the other
    (Argentina) must export at least US$1.00.  Brazil wants to leave the
    formula as it currently stands while Argentina seeks to reduce the
    flex ratio to 2.20.  In addition, Buenos Aires would like the
    agreement to be of indefinite duration and the flex ratio to be
    applied individually to every company - instead of the current
    practice of applying it to the industry as a whole.  Both
    governments had hoped to have the agreement done by the end of
    November in time for the commemoration of Brazil-Argentina
    Friendship Day.  However, with Brazilian and Argentine automakers
    each pressuring their government's negotiators, achieving consensus
    in time, in an atmosphere marked by rancor on both sides, proved
    impossible.  Therefore, the agreement was extended until March, by
    which time negotiators hope to have an interim agreement in place.
    A final agreement is not expected until after June.

    Brazilian Industry Livid
    ------------------------
    ¶5. (SBU) Brazilian business reps, including spokesmen from the
    powerful FIESP (Sao Paulo State Industrial Federation) have been
    vocal in their criticism of the deal the GOB negotiated on the MAC.
    They question why the GOB agreed to such a lengthy safeguard period
    (possibly up to 4 years) and point out that under the MAC any space
    ceded by Brazilian manufacturers in the Argentina market could well
    be filled by third country producers.  Specifically, we have been
    told that there are studies showing that voluntary limits on

    BRASILIA 00000362  002 OF 002

    Brazilian "white goods" exports to Argentina last year resulted in
    increased imports from third countries, while not a single
    additional unit was produced in Argentina.  In industry's view,
    government policymakers who already have proven themselves tone-deaf
    to input on issues such as the FTAA and the proposed EU-Mercosul
    FTA, once again ignored domestic business interests.  Meanwhile,
    officials at two Sao Paulo-based auto manufacturers have told us
    that they fear that the GOB will do so again in the ongoing
    automotive accord talks.

    Divergent Thinking within the GOB
    ---------------------------------
    ¶6. (SBU) In early February, Emboffs spoke with a well-placed MFA
    diplomat who described the situation within the GOB on this issue.
    One camp, we were told, recognized that Brazilian business interests
    were not being served but felt that given Argentina's worries about
    regaining ground for its industry in the wake of its recent economic
    meltdown, the importance of maintaining good relations with Buenos
    Aires trumped all else.  The most prominent spokesman for this point
    of view was Foreign Minister Celso Amorim, who, when the terms of
    the MAC were announced, publicly characterized it as fair and
    balanced.  The accord on MAC, under this line of thinking, was the
    price for keeping Mercosul intact.  And while one-sided concessions
    may not make much economic sense, politically they do serve to keep
    Argentina and Brazil from butting heads and help advance Brazil's
    aspirations for a U.N. Security Council seat.

    ¶7. (SBU) A second camp, led by Minister of Development, Industry,
    and Commerce Luiz Fernando Furlan, saw the MAC as preemptive
    capitulation.  Our MFA interlocutor noted that buried within the
    text of the agreement was a clause which allowed a party to impose
    "provisional" safeguards unilaterally should the situation so
    warrant.  Incredible as it sounds, our contact said, the Argentines
    think the safeguards mechanism will induce foreign investors to
    invest in Argentina rather than Brazil.  Because of his pro-Brazil
    stance, we were told, Furlan was a hated man in Argentina - so much
    so that he had not traveled there once during his three years as
    Minister.

    Comment
    -------

    ¶8. (SBU) While Amorim prevailed with respect to the MAC and could
    well impose his imprint on any automotive sector accord, he might
    not be able to continue his string of wins indefinitely.  We heard
    that had not Brazilian exporters been constrained by Mercosul in
    negotiating agreements to expand existing (and open new) markets,
    instead of exporting US$117 billion in 2005 (a record), they could
    have done much, much more.  Argentina was cited as the culprit in
    preventing Brazil from concluding an FTA with key trade partners
    like the U.S. and the EU.  Clearly, these statements reflect the
    dissatisfaction with Mercosul felt by a number of key Brazilian
    government and industry actors.  The entry of Venezuela into the
    bloc and the growing restiveness of the smaller members - Uruguay
    and Paraguay, both of which questioned why they were excluded from
    the MAC talks - will only feed further rethinking regarding the
    economic benefits of Mercosul.

    ¶9. (SBU) Recently Amorim told a visiting U.S. delegation that
    Venezuela's entry into Mercosul was more "an expression of political
    hope than an economic reality."  Given the Amorim-led effort to
    pacify Argentina, it is becoming increasingly the case that for
    Brazil Mercosul is a "political hope, not an economic reality."

    LINEHAN

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