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### Viewing cable 07CAIRO2280, SCENESETTER FOR THE JULY 31 VISIT OF SECRETARIES

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07CAIRO2280 | 2007-07-24 17:01 | 2011-05-19 23:30 | SECRET | Embassy Cairo

`

    VZCZCXRO1142
    OO RUEHROV
    DE RUEHEG #2280/01 2051701
    ZNY SSSSS ZZH
    O 241701Z JUL 07
    FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO
    TO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
    RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6243
    INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

` `

    "S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 002280

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    DEPARTMENT FOR NEA FO
    NSC FOR NENA
    SECDEF FOR OSD

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/20/2017
    TAGS: ECON EFIN KPAL MARR PGOV PREL SU EG IS IZ IR
    SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR THE JULY 31 VISIT OF SECRETARIES
    RICE AND GATES TO SHARM EL SHEIKH

    Classified By: Ambassador Francis J. Ricciardone
    for reasons 1.4 (a), (b), and (d)

    ¶1. (C) The Egyptians welcome the joint visit of the
    Secretaries of State and Defense as a clear signal of mutual

    SIPDIS
    recognition of shared strategic interests, despite recent
    highly publicized bilateral tensions.  President Mubarak and
    ministers Aboul Gheit, Tantawi, and Soliman, expect the focus
    of the bilateral sessions to be on restarting the
    Israeli-Palestinian peace process, and Iraq.  They are also
    keenly interested in U.S. intentions towards Iran, and we can
    exploit the bilats to press on Sudan.  We should also remind
    the Egyptians that we want them to approach democratic
    political reform as a positive and enduring element in our
    relations, and neither a cause for antagonism nor a passing
    USG interest that they can successfully outwait.  At the
    ""Gulf Cooperation Council Plus Two"" meeting, the Egyptians
    will work with us constructively, though typically with scant
    initiative, on addressing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict,
    Iraq, Lebanon, terror, and weapons of mass destruction.

    THE PALESTINIAN PROBLEM

    ¶2. (S) The Egyptians are eager to see a re-energizing of the
    peace process. In public, they reacted moderately positively
    to the President's July 16 speech, though in private they say
    they see little new in it.  The instability of Gaza continues
    to vex the Egyptians.  Hamas' June takeover of Gaza has now
    left the GoE and Hamas face to face on the Philadelphi
    corridor.  The Egyptians have told us repeatedly that they do
    not seek immediate Hamas-Palestinian Authority rapprochement,
    but they do see this as ultimately necessary -- after first
    ""squeezing"" Hamas.  The GoE evidently has maintained limited
    contact with Hamas, not so much to seek Palestinian
    reconciliation as to avoid clashes on the border, and to keep
    Egypt involved as ""a player.""

    ¶3. (S) The Egyptians deeply resent Israeli complaints that
    Egypt either cannot or will not stop smuggling into Gaza,
    even as the Treaty of Peace precludes Egypt from stationing
    military forces on the border.  As we and the Israelis have
    stepped up the pressure on this issue, the MoD has begun more
    emphatically to assert a need to ""revisit"" with the Israelis
    the terms of the 28-year-old Treaty.  They also have invited
    any Americans who will take the trouble to observe first hand
    their efforts at combating smuggling along the Philadelphi
    corridor.  Two Congressional delegations have visited Rafah
    recently.  The Egyptians continue to communicate with the
    Israelis through EGIS and military channels in their efforts
    to find and destroy smuggling tunnels.  We have urged them to
    maximize the amount of Border Guard Forces allowed per
    GoI-GoE agreements, including in ""Zone B,"" and to use these
    increases to support their mission along Philadelphi.  We
    also have informed them of Israeli interest in increasing the
    channels of communication at the border, to include civilian
    security services.

    ¶4. (C) The closure of the Rafah crossing since June 9 has
    stranded thousands of Gazans in Egypt.  The GoE, GoI, and PA,
    with our support, appear to have reached high-level political
    agreement on July 22 to allow the Gazans to return via
    Israel, but this process has not yet started on the ground.

    IRAQ

    ¶5.  (S) Constantly in private and occasionally in public,
    Mubarak and Aboul Gheit continue to stress that a precipitous
    U.S. withdrawal from Iraq would be a ""double"" disaster.
    Mubarak has led Arab political engagement with the Iraqi
    government.  Since receiving PM Maliki in April and hosting
    him again at the Iraq Neighbors Conference in Sharm in early
    May, Mubarak has received Iraqi (Sunni) VP Hashemi in June,
    and this month Egypt has hosted U.S.-sponsored training
    sessions for Iraqi technocrats.  The GoE views as further
    evidence of GoI incompetence the fact that the GoI has not
    responded to repeated GoE urging to nominate an Iraqi
    ambassador to Cairo.  While welcoming the visits of PM Maliki
    and his predecessor, as well as president Talabani, FM
    Zebari, and NSA Rubaei, the GoE also maintains discreet and
    limited contacts with legitimate non-violent Iraqi opposition
    figures, notably Ayad al-Allawy and Adnan Pachachi.  Mubarak
    frankly expects the Maliki government to fail, and continues
    to see a ""strong but fair"" leader as the most urgent
    requirement for Iraqi stability.  Egypt has scored some
    successes against the flow of foreign fighters into Iraq, but
    transit to Iraq through Syria (which does not require visas

    CAIRO 00002280  002 OF 003

    for Arab citizens) remains a problem.  Foreign Ministry
    contacts have told us the ""GCC Plus Two"" participants are in
    wait-and-see mode in expectation of General Petraeus'
    September report.

    POLITICAL MILITARY RELATIONSHIP

    ¶6. (C) We have two vital security interests with Egypt:  its
    peace with Israel, and unfettered U.S. military access to the
    Suez Canal and Egyptian airspace, including ground-based
    support for USAF operations. The Egyptian political and
    military leadership has long controlled and guaranteed both
    of these U.S. interests, despite negative popular attitudes.
    The GoE has made it clear that they directly link our FMF
    assistance to their protection of our strategic interests
    here.  Egyptian leaders have continued to express their ire
    at the recent congressional effort to place conditions on
    FMF, arguing that any reduction would send a powerfully
    negative message ""to the Egyptian people"" that the U.S. is
    reconsidering the strategic basis of the relationship, rooted
    in Camp David.

    ¶7. (C) The GoE should work with us to strengthen and update
    the military relationship within the context of explicit
    shared interests, such as the global war on terrorism, border
    security, and PKOs.  In addition, we should be clear that
    Egyptian democracy and human rights issues are enduring, core
    American interests and will remain significant factors in the
    FMF assistance debate.  Our reduction of Bright Star to a
    table-top exercise sharply disappointed the MoD, but they now
    appear accurately to have grasped the reasons for this.  More
    recently, the Egyptians came through with emergency
    ammunition for Lebanon, ultimately reducing their initially
    inflated prices to fair levels.  A few words of thanks to
    Tantawi from SecDef would help us the next time we turn to
    MoD for such help.

    IRAN

    ¶8. (C) Mubarak's long-standing suspicion of ""Shiite"" Iranian
    machinations is unabated, not least because he knows the
    general Egyptian populace is historically and theologically
    ""soft on Shiism.""  Hamas' ascendancy in Gaza has only
    increased GoE leadership concerns about the need to counter
    Iranian influence over Hamas, particularly due to Hamas'
    links with the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood and Gazan family
    ties to the Bedouin in Sinai.  President Mubarak and his
    national security team will seek a readout of our intentions
    on Iran.  They have told us outright that they suspect we are
    setting the stage for a military strike against Iran.

    SUDAN

    ¶9. (C) Although Egyptian officials will say that Sudanese
    president Bashir,s acceptance of the hybrid force obviates
    the need for &further pressure,8 we should nonetheless push
    them to press Bashir on accepting UN command and control and
    a full Chapter VII mandate for the hybrid force in a UNSCR
    currently under discussion. Egypt,s primary concern
    continues to be the stability and territorial integrity of
    its southern neighbor, and Aboul Gheit has praised UN/AU
    initiatives to bring together Darfur Peace Agreement
    non-signatories as showing that the international community
    is united in pressing all parties for peace.  Increasing
    confrontations between Egyptian security forces and Sudanese
    refugees being smuggled into Israel have occurred recently,
    resulting in the deaths of several refugees.  The MFA has
    denied the GoI's claim, widely reported in the Israeli media,
    that Mubarak ""agreed"" with Olmert in Sharm in late June not
    to refoule Sudanese refugees, should Israel deport them to
    Egypt.

    DOMESTIC POLITICS

    ¶10. (S) Egypt's domestic political situation has reverted to
    stagnation, as the country fatalistically awaits Mubarak's
    departure.  Economic growth continues, but the poorest
    Egyptians have yet to benefit proportionately to their
    numbers.  Prices continue to rise, and the freer media
    environment gives greater salience to populist opposition to
    continuing, though slower, privatization of public companies
    and banks.  Labor has also protested salary delays and
    perceived threats of layoffs, with wildcat strikes and
    occupation of factories -- another political phenomenon given
    greater impact by a freer media.  The GOE's campaign of
    arrests and intimidation of the Muslim Brotherhood resulted

    CAIRO 00002280  003 OF 003

    in the MB's ""independent"" candidates winning none of the
    seats in the June 11 Shura Council (upper house) elections,
    which were dominated by candidates from Mubarak's ruling
    National Democratic party.  The GoE continues to use a
    military tribunal to prosecute 40 MB activists on money
    laundering and related charges.

    DEMOCRACY

    ¶11. (C) Elements of the GoE-controlled press attacked
    democracy activist Saad Eddin Ibrahim for his participation
    in a late May meeting on Arab democracy in Doha, as well as
    his attendance at a June 6 meeting with President Bush in
    Prague.  Ibrahim is traveling outside Egypt.  NDP legislators
    and pro-GoE writers have called for his arrest and trial on
    treason charges upon his return, but Mubarak and Aboul Gheit
    have assured the Ambassador, albeit back-handedly, that
    Ibrahim and other such dissidents, whose cases we have
    pressed, have ""nothing to fear.""  We have also raised with
    Mubarak, PM Nazif, and Aboul Gheit the arrests and harassment
    by GoE security services of several religious activists.
    USAID continues to fund a robust range of democracy programs
    with Egyptian civil society, but we expect continued GoE
    controls and outright pressure on NGOs.  We maintain close
    contacts with Gameela Ismail, wife of Ayman Nour, who tells
    us that she is hopeful that Nour's request for a health-based
    parole will be granted on July 31.  We detect no change in
    the GOE's stance on Nour.
    RICCIARDONE
    "

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