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### Viewing cable 04SAOPAULO1541, MUNICIPAL ELECTION RESULTS IN THE SOUTH: PT

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
04SAOPAULO1541 | 2004-11-01 20:33 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Consulate Sao Paulo

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SAO PAULO 001541

    SIPDIS

    NSC FOR MIKE DEMPSEY

    DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR WHA/PD

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV PINR SOCI BR
    SUBJECT: MUNICIPAL ELECTION RESULTS IN THE SOUTH:  PT
    LOSSES; PSDB GAINS

    REF:  A) BRASILIA 2742; B) SAO PAULO 1527; C) SAO PAULO

    1483; D) SAO PAULO 1472

    ¶1.  Summary.  In Sao Paulo and the South, the PSDB was the
    big winner and the PT the big loser in the second round of
    the Brazilian municipal elections on October 31.  The PT
    lost control of the two biggest prizes in the region, Sao
    Paulo and Porto Alegre, the second of which the party had
    governed for the last 16 years.  Although it defeated the
    PSDB in several important cities in Sao Paulo state,
    overall, the PT lost ground to the PSDB in the 27 largest
    cities in the state.  The PSDB's victories in Sao Paulo,
    Curitiba and Florianopolis, capital cities the party has
    never previously governed, will undoubtedly fortify the
    party's position in the run-up to the 2006 presidential
    election.  Jose Serra's decisive victory (55% - 45%) over
    incumbent PT mayor Marta Suplicy also bolsters PSDB Governor
    Geraldo Alckmin's position among the party's
    "presidenciaveis," or potential presidential nominees.  In
    Parana state, the PT loss in Curitiba was also a major loss
    for PMDB Governor Roberto Requiao, who had strongly backed
    the PT candidate in that race.  The PPS also gained strength
    in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, with victories
    in Porto Alegre and Pelotas. END SUMMARY

    SETBACKS IN SAO PAULO AND RIO GRANDE DO SUL
    -------------------------------------------

    ¶2.  The PT lost big in the two states -- Sao Paulo and Rio
    Grande do Sul -- where it traditionally has had its
    strongest base of support.  In addition to losing the
    capitals, Sao Paulo and Porto Alegre, the PT lost ground in
    the major cities in both states.  PT party president Jose
    Genoino acknowledged that the party's losses in these states
    were "very heavy defeats" for the party, though he denied
    that they indicated that the party was facing a "crisis."
    In Sao Paulo state, among the 27 cities with populations
    over 150,000, the number in PT hands fell from nine to five.
    The results were mixed for the PT in the large industrial
    suburbs (known as the ABC region) of Sao Paulo.  It defeated
    the PSDB in the second round in Santo Andre, Diadema and
    Osasco (which the PSDB has governed for the last eight
    years), and won reelection in Guarulhos in the first round
    on October 3.  The PT defeat of the PSDB in Osasco, the
    hometown of Federal Chamber of Deputies President Joao Paulo
    Cunha (PT), may strengthen Cunha's hand in jockeying with
    other PT stars for a spot in Lula's cabinet or for a
    gubernatorial run in 2006.  In other ABC cities, the PT lost
    Sao Caetano to the PTB, and failed yet again to win in Sao
    Bernardo, Lula's hometown.  PT incumbents did not make it
    into the second round in the key interior cities of Riberao
    Preto, Campinas, Piraciacaba and Sorocaba.  The PT suffered
    an upset second round loss in the important port city of
    Santos, where former PT mayor Telma da Souza had been
    expected to win her bid to return to office.

    ¶3.  The PSDB, and specifically Governor Geraldo Alckmin,
    were the big winners in the state.  Alckmin noted that the
    party had the best performance in the state since it was
    founded in 1990.  In addition to the capital, the PSDB took
    Sorocaba, Riberao Preto and Piraciacaba away from the PT.
    The party will now govern 10 of the state's largest cities,
    one more than their current total, and twice the number of
    any other party.  Control of these voter rich cities will
    undoubtedly help the party consolidate its position as the
    strongest party in the most populous state in Brazil.  The
    party's success helps to burnish Alckmin's own standing
    within the party and as a potential player on the national
    stage, though the Governor has little visibility outside his
    home state.  Alckmin threw his own political capital
    strongly behind Serra in the capital, demonstrating his
    effectiveness as a political godfather.  He did the same in
    Sorocaba, where he participated actively in the campaign in
    the first round, supporting both the PSDB and PFL candidates
    to deny the incumbent PT mayor a slot in the second round.

    ¶4.  The PT's performance in the southern state of Rio Grande
    do Sul was equally dispiriting for the party faithful.  In
    addition to losing Porto Alegre, the first major city
    governed by the PT, where it has been in power for the last
    16 years, the party was ousted from power in Caxias do Sul
    and Pelotas, the state's second and third largest interior
    cities.  The party will now govern in only one of the
    state's five largest cities.  The PT won reelection in Santa
    Maria in the first round, but failed to dislodge the PSDB
    incumbent from city hall in Canoas.  As in Sao Paulo state,
    while the PT was the big loser, the governor was the big
    winner in Rio Grande do Sul.  Though he remained
    ostentatiously neutral in all of the first round races in
    his state, reportedly to avoid causing difficulties among
    the state's governing alliance, PMDB Governor Germano
    Rigotto threw his support to the opposition candidates in
    all three cities with run-off  races.  Though he did not
    campaign actively with Jose Fogaca, the PPS victor in Porto
    Alegre, until the final days of the campaign, he made his
    support for the opposition alliance clear.  In his home city
    of Caxias do Sul, where the incumbent PT mayor remains very
    popular, Rigotto's support was instrumental in helping the
    PMDB's Jose Ivo Sartori, defeat the PT's Marisa Formolo.
    The PMDB will control city hall in 137 of the state's 496
    municipalities, the greatest number of any party in the
    state.  Overall, parties that comprise Rigotto's governing
    base will hold power in a total of 441 cities.  The other
    winner in the state was the Popular Socialist Party (PPS),
    which in addition to winning in Porto Alegre, also ousted
    the PT in Pelotas and picked up 3 additional cities in the
    first round.  The PPS victories in Rio Grande do Sul, which
    notably were at the expense of the PT, may strengthen the
    "oppositionist" wing of the PPS party, which has suggested
    that the party leave the national governing alliance.

    THE PSDB BREAKS NEW GROUND IN PARANA AND SANTA CATERINA
    --------------------------------------------- ----------

    ¶5. The PSDB's victories in Curitiba and Florianopolis, the
    capitals of Parana and Santa Catarina states, will bolster
    the party's position in a region where it has not previously
    had much of a presence.  In Curitiba, the PSDB's Beto Richa
    convincingly defeated the PT's Angelo Vanhoni (55% to 45%);
    Vanhoni had been favored to win until well into the first
    round campaign.  The city is currently governed by the PFL.
    In addition to failing to pick up the capital, the PT lost
    control of two of the state's three largest interior cities.
    The losses in Parana's big cities will more than offset the
    PT's success in more than doubling the number of small to
    medium sized cities it governs in the state.  Along with the
    PT, the big loser in Parana is PMDB governor Roberto
    Requiao, who bet heavily on Vanhoni in Curitiba and the
    defeated PT incumbents in Ponta Grossa and Maringa.  In an
    indication of how closely the polemical Governor had become
    identified with the PT candidate in Curitiba, the victory
    celebration by Richa supporters took place outside the
    governor's palace, rather than at one of the more
    traditional political gathering points in the city.  Former
    Governor Jaime Lerner was among many who blamed Requiao for
    Vanhoni's defeat, stating that the Governor succeeded in
    "burying Vanhoni's candidacy, and that the vote represented
    a veto of the Governor's "arrogance and authoritarianism."

    ¶6.  In Santa Catarina, Dario Berger's win over PP candidate
    Chico Assis in Florianopolis will help firm up the PSDB's
    still tentative foothold in the state.  The PSDB incumbent
    won a first round victory in Joinville, the state's largest
    city.  In both cities, the PSDB candidates benefited from
    the active support of PMDB governor Luiz Henrique da Silva,
    who thus emerges from the municipal elections strengthened
    vis-a-vis the PP's Angela Amin, the outgoing mayor of
    Florianopolis and one of his most likely opponents in the
    2006 race for governor.

    COMMENT
    -------

    ¶7.  The PT's electoral setbacks in the South loomed so large
    that even party president Jose Genoino made no attempt to
    hide his dismay.  The party lost Sao Paulo and Porto Alegre,
    the two largest state capitals in the South, and the two
    most important cities the PT governs.  At the national
    level, the PT will undoubtedly spin the election results in
    the major cities of Sao Paulo and the South by focusing on
    the party's gains in smaller cities and regions outside its
    traditional base.  It will not be able, however, to disguise
    the fact that it suffered serious setbacks, in particular by
    losing control of Sao Paulo and Porto Alegre.  The PT will
    undoubtedly be picking through the entrails of its defeats
    there for some time to come.  Among the fall-out we
    anticipate from this self-examination are a further
    weakening of the influence of the leftist gaucho wing of the
    party on the national party leadership and the Lula
    government, and a heated competition for the PT
    gubernatorial nomination in Rio Grande do Sul in 2006.  The
    PT gubernatorial selection process in Sao Paulo state will
    also likely become more complicated, as Marta Suplicy may
    well mount an effort to dislodge PT Senator Aloizio
    Mercadante from his perch as the reputed party favorite for
    the nomination.  The PSDB emerged from the elections
    energized not only in Sao Paulo but in the southern states
    of Parana and Santa Caterina.  END COMMENT.

    ¶8.  This message was coordinated with Embassy Brasilia.

    DUDDY

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