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### Viewing cable 06PANAMA1649, CANAL EXPANSION REFERENDUM: INDECISION GROWS,

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06PANAMA1649 | 2006-08-24 15:01 | 2011-05-31 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Panama

`

    VZCZCXYZ0000
    RR RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHZP #1649/01 2361501
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    R 241501Z AUG 06
    FM AMEMBASSY PANAMA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8816
    INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
    RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
    RUEKJCS/OSD WASHDC
    RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
    RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 001649

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    DEPARTMENT FOR WHA KIRSTEN MADISON; WHA/CEN; SOUTHCOM ALSO
    FOR POLAD; NSC FOR DAN FISK

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/2016
    TAGS: PGOV ECON EWWT ETRD PREL PM
    SUBJECT: CANAL EXPANSION REFERENDUM:  INDECISION GROWS,
    "YES" LEAD SHRINKS

    REF: PANAMA 001411

    Classified By: AMBASSADOR WILLIAM A. EATON FOR REASON 1.4D

    -------
    Summary
    -------

    ¶1. (C) The undecided vote for the October 22 Panama Canal
    expansion referendum has grown about five points to 28.5
    percent in the last two months at the expense of both the
    &yes8 and the &no8 votes, according to a recent Dichter
    and Neira poll.  Embassy interlocutors cite lack of
    confidence in the government as the most common reason for
    this growing indecision.  While most Embassy contacts agree
    the referendum will pass, the GOP hopes its proposed national
    dialogue on a national development plan will take political
    oxygen away from the "no" campaign and bolster support for
    the &yes8 vote.  President Torrijos asked the UN
    Development Programme (UNDP) to moderate this national
    dialogue on August 16.  Post will report SEPTEL on future
    developments of this dialogue.  End summary.

    --------------------------------------------- ----------
    Panamanians Increasingly Uncertain About Expansion Plan
    --------------------------------------------- ----------

    ¶2.  (SBU) With two months to go before the October 22 Canal
    expansion referendum, the Dichter and Neira poll shows that
    more voters are undecided.  This indecision comes at the
    expense of both &yes8 and &no8 votes.  Some 54.4 percent
    of respondents favored the referendum, 17.1 percent opposed
    it, and 28.5 percent were undecided.  (Note:  Dichter and
    Neira's August 4-6 poll interviewed 1,200 respondents and has
    an estimated margin of error of 2.9 percent.  End Note.)  By
    contrast, Dichter and Neira's June poll revealed 57.9 percent
    in support, 19.8 percent against, and 22.3 percent undecided.

    ------------------------
    The Opposition Organizes
    ------------------------

    ¶3.  (SBU) On August 7, the Electoral Tribunal (TE) announced
    the registration of seven groups that oppose expansion of the
    Canal; one additional group was registered in the following
    days.  To date, only two groups supporting the Canal
    expansion have been recognized.  The majority of the
    opposition groups appear to be nothing more than malcontents
    with a website.  Two of the groups, however, have fairly
    large followings and the ability to mobilize voters.  The
    National Front for the Defense of Economic and Social Rights
    (FRENADESO) and the Social Security Employees, Association
    (AECSS) ) central to the demonstrations last summer against
    Torrijos, social security reforms ) have once again taken
    up the banner of protest.  A third opposition group formed
    last March, the Alternative Political Force (FPA), is a
    populist group, closely affiliated with Chavez,s Bolivarian
    movement.  Former Social Security Fund Director General (CSS)
    and FRENADESO advisor Juan Jovane characterized this
    Bolivarian group as little more than a few university
    professors without any significant following, noting that the
    days of such &vanguard8 movements had long passed.  Despite
    the GOP's and Panama Canal Authority's (ACP) public relations
    efforts, these groups have capitalized on distrust of the GOP
    and lack of progress on other issues to gain traction with
    voters.  Labor groups, particularly those groups associated
    with FRENADESO, in the run up to the October 22 referendum
    see an opportunity to advance their labor demands.  Jovane
    confirmed, &Now is not a bad time to negotiate.8  Indeed,
    several political observers have told Emboffs that the GOP
    intended to do whatever it took in the run up to the
    referendum to avoid problems.  Dr. Carlos Abadia, the Vice
    President of a &yes8 group and a physician at the CSS, told
    PolChief that labor groups have been losing support and have
    needed to radicalize in order to mobilize people.

    ¶4.  (SBU) Opposition leaders ) who themselves are largely
    supportive of Canal expansion efforts ) find themselves
    boxed in by their rank and file who call for voting "no" on
    the referendum.  Newly-elected Panamenista leader Juan Carlos
    Varela told Ambassador that his party would not announce its
    position on the referendum until September 29 largely to
    provide political space for Torrijos to improve the &yes8
    vote numbers.  Panamenista legislator Jose Blandon, Jr. told
    the DCM that over 80 percent of his party's rank and file
    opposed the referendum, and that the party leadership would
    be forced to come out against it if things do not change
    soon.  Publicly, Varela called on Torrijos to postpone the
    referendum.  Union Patriotica leader Ricky Fabrega told
    PolChief that his party is afraid of being perceived as
    PRD-lite and that while the Canal expansion is a good idea in
    theory, he does not personally support the project under PRD
    administration.  Celia Moreno, a Partido Popular leader told
    Polchief that the opposition parties did not want to derail
    the referendum, but rather would like to see it pass by a
    small margin in order to prove that they were a viable force.

    --------------------------------------------- -------
    GOP Hopes National Dialogue May Jumpstart &Yes8 Vote
    --------------------------------------------- -------

    ¶5.  (SBU) Many Embassy interlocutors have complained about
    the Torrijos Administration's mismanagement of the &yes8
    campaign.  Abadia told Polchief that Panamanians need to have
    an emotional relationship to the project, and should feel
    like active participants.  Others have characterized the ACP
    efforts to promote the &yes8 vote as arrogant,
    technocratic, and tone deaf.  Indeed, the leader of "Yes, for
    Panama," Felipe Rodriguez, criticized Torrijos' "tight
    secrecy (hermetismo)" and the ACP's "cold" and "technocratic"
    manner for hindering efforts to promote the "yes" vote.
    Supporters and opponents alike criticize the Torrijos
    administration for making the Canal expansion a
    &political initiative8 rather than a &national project8
    that benefits all Panamanians.  Roberto Henriquez, Vice
    President of the Democratic Change Party explained to
    Polchief that there is a tendency in Panama to use &el voto
    castigo" to punish the ruling administration by voting
    against something without even considering the issue at hand.
     He says that the &no vote8 is an emotional response based
    on a lack of confidence in the capacity of the GOP to manage
    the project transparently, and that this could surface on
    referendum day.

    ¶6.  (SBU) On 16 August, Torrijos formally asked the UN
    Development Programme (UNDP) to serve as a moderator for a
    national development plan.  Whereas he had previously
    resisted calls to launch a national dialogue on a national
    development plan, faced with eroding poll numbers and a
    stagnant campaign, Torrijos appears to have accepted the
    necessity of dialogue.  In his public call for a dialogue,
    Torrijos explained that the Canal expansion plan is a
    well-planned initiative that will improve living conditions
    for all Panamanians.  The President urged Panamanians &with
    common will and a sense of the country to take advantage of
    this opportunity and take the leap into the first world.8
    Despite his attempt to alleviate opposition concerns, initial
    remarks from opposition leaders revealed a skeptical wait and
    see attitude.  FPA leader Beluche immediately called the
    effort "insincere" while the Patriotic Union Party is meeting
    this week to define its position with regard to the Canal.
    Panamanian political experts explained that there was general
    consensus across the political spectrum in favor of dialogues
    on national development in Panama.

    ¶7.  (C) Dr. Abadia told PolChief, and other observers have
    noted, that the current situation with the Canal referendum
    echoes the way President Torrijos (mis)managed the social
    security reform last summer.  He explained that FRENADESO
    really got started during the CSS reform process due to the
    GOP,s failure to dialogue and engage opponents.  It took
    months of protests for the President to launch a national
    dialogue on the social security reforms, and a watered-down
    version of the legislation was implemented nearly six months
    later.

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    Comment
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    ¶8.  (C) Most political spectators agree that the referendum
    will probably pass by a narrow margin.  Roberto Henriquez
    says that historically 60-65 percent of Panamanians generally
    support the idea of expanding the Canal.  This 65 percent is
    the ceiling that the GOP could expect to win on the
    referendum.  Referenda in Panama have a storied history of
    failure; no referendum has been approved since the
    restoration of democracy.  Panamanians go to the polls only
    every five years and they may take advantage of this unique
    interim opportunity to voice general disaproval of the
    Torrijos administration.

    ¶9.  (C) The GOP now faces the challenge of staunching erosion
    of its &yes8 base, neutralizing growth of the &no8 vote
    by restoring a measure of confidence in its ability to
    govern, and growing the participant base through positive
    engagement.  Transforming efforts to expand the Canal into a
    national project that is linked to a broader development
    agenda could help the GOP to reenergize support for the
    &yes8 vote.  However, a poorly managed or token effort
    could undermine GOP credibility and weaken support for the
    expansion.
    EATON

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