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### Viewing cable 07PANAMA1226, PANAMA POST: EDITION VI

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07PANAMA1226 | 2007-07-23 12:31 | 2011-05-31 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Panama

`

    VZCZCXYZ0001
    RR RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHZP #1226/01 2041231
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    R 231231Z JUL 07
    FM AMEMBASSY PANAMA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0845
    INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
    RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
    RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
    RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
    RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
    RUEKJCS/OSD WASHDC
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 001226

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/20/2017
    TAGS: PREL PGOV PM
    SUBJECT: PANAMA POST:  EDITION VI

    REF: (A) PANAMA 1197 (AND PREVIOUS) (B) PANAMA 1210

    Classified By: POLCOUNS Brian R. Naranjo.  Reasons:  1.4 (b) and (d)

    -------
    Summary
    -------

    ¶1.  (C) Dichter and Neira's latest poll (REFTEL B), published
    by Panama City broad sheet daily La Prensa on July 16, set
    the political tone for this week.  Taking a significant dive
    in the polls, Panama City Mayor and aspirant for the
    governing Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) presidential
    nomination Juan Carlos Navarro feigned pessimism about the
    PRD's prospects.  Were it forced to handicap the presidential
    race at this point though, the Panama Post would have to give
    the edge to the PRD.  Meanwhile, opposition leaders jockeyed
    for position in the run-up to opposition party conventions
    and an overall consolidation trend in the opposition.
    Allegedly possible PRD presidential nominee Balbina Herrera
    might be "uncomfortable" with her front-runner status in the
    polls.  Finally, Bolivarian leftist groups voiced their
    opposition to the U.S.-Panama Trade Promition Agreement
    (TPA), but did so three days after the National Assembly
    blessed the agreement.  The following is a summary of this
    week's headlines:

    -- Panama City Mayor Juan Carlos Navarro feigns pessimism at
    governing Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD)'s 2009
    prospects;
    -- Panama's Bolivarians call for "grand citizen's
    consultation" on U.S.-Panama Trade Promotion Agreement (TPA)
    . . . three days after National Assembly blesses agreement;
    -- Former VP Billy Ford likely to be President of Patriotic
    Union (UP);
    -- Surprisingly buoyant, Panamenista Party President Juan
    Carlos Varela sees opposition scenario simplifying and
    consolidating;
    -- Jose Miguel Aleman likely to be Endara's vice presidential
    running mate; and
    -- Minister of Government and Justice Olga Golcher dishes:
    Pedro Miguel Gonzalez will not/not be President of National
    Assembly, Balbina Herrrera uncomfortable being PRD
    front-runner.

    End summary

    -----------------------------------
    Navarro:  PRD Going to Lose in 2009
    -----------------------------------

    ¶2. (C) "The PRD is going to lose in 2009.  These guys do not
    realize how difficult it will be to keep the PRD in power,"
    Panama City Juan Carlos Navarro asserted to Ambassador on
    July 16.  "We have to get to work and get serious if we are
    to have a shot at hanging on to the presidency in 2009."  The
    mayor commented that he did not believe that fellow PRD
    member and Minister of Housing Balbina Herrera would run for
    president, though he conceded that, as any talented

    politician, she had to at least be toying with the idea.
    Navarro acknowledged that Herrera would have a decisive role
    to play the PRD's internal maneuvering for the presidential
    nomination and added that so to did President Martin
    Torrijos.  "Herrera and I are getting along very well," the
    mayor said.  "Torrijos and I have never had a better
    relationship."  Nonetheless, a resigned Navarro admitted that
    Torrijos remained steadfast in his support for First VP and
    FM Samuel Lewis despite his low poll numbers and the prospect
    of moving up the PRD's internal elections, as Navarro
    desires, were dim.  Remarking that Lewis entered politics at
    his urging, Navarro said, "I just need to find a way to beat
    my cousin."  Navarro said he believed that Ernesto "El Toro"
    Perez Balladares was a spent force.

    ¶3. (C) The Panama Post was not sucked in by Navarro's
    pessimistic, gloom and doom scenario for the PRD, but rather
    continues to believe that the 2009 elections currently are
    the PRD's to lose.  Perhaps Navarro was attempting to portray
    himself as a dark horse candidate.  While outwardly
    pessimistic about his party, Navarro seemed resigned to
    current political alignment in the PRD and wishful for a
    realignment of its constellation.  Herrera, who out polled
    Navarro in a recent poll, and Torrijos remain the two great
    unknowns for Navarro's prospects in the PRD.

    ---------------------------------------
    MP-UNA's Open Letter to Torrijos on TPA
    ---------------------------------------

    ¶4.  (U) "(W)e demand a broad process of debate regarding the
    Trade Promotion Agreement that culminates in a great
    citizen's consultation that would permit all Panamanians to
    decide" whether to accept this treaty, the People's Movement
    - United for Our America (MP-UNA) declared in its July 14
    open letter to President Torrijos published in Panama City
    daily La Estrella  This Bolivarian umbrella organization
    complained, "(R)epublican and Democratic Congressmen
    introduced modifications to the draft treaty that are
    entirely unknown to our country."  Continuing, the letter
    stated, "What is at play, Mr. President, is the food security
    of our people and the right of self-determination of
    Panamanians regarding its own future."  Asserting the need
    for a public consultation, MP-UNA argued, "The political
    parties represented in the legislative power have lost
    credibility before public opinion," and added that Torrijos'
    call for a special session of the National Assembly to
    consider the treaty was "trickery."  Finally, MP-UNA stated,
    "It is our firm conviction, Mr. President, that, for the
    sovereign interests of the country, the correct path toward
    economic integration has to be with the other peoples of our
    America.  Therefore, our position is in favor of Panama
    integrating itself as a member of ALBA (Free Bolivarian Area
    of the Americas)."  The letter was signed by the following
    MP-UNA coordinators:  Dr. Miguel A. Candanedo (Secretary
    General of the University of Panama); Dr. Carlos Wong;
    Professor Dania Batista; Saul Mendez, Secretary General of
    radical Sole National Union of Workers of the Construction
    Industry and Similar Industries (SUNTRACS); Gloria Castillo;
    Javier Viquez; Silvestre Diaz; Manuel Prado; Eric Fernandez;
    Tayra Stanley; and Carlos Nunez.

    ¶5.  (C) Comment:  Though published three days after Panama's
    National Assembly had already acted on the TPA, the fact that
    it was published at all was a minor success for MP-UNA .
    Candanedo and Alternative Policy Party (PAP) President Omeldo
    Beluche, an MP-UNA member, separately complained to POLCOUNS
    that MP-UNA and other leftist organizations had little access
    to the media as "oligarchic" interests "undemocratically"
    barred their access.  Established only about two months
    earlier, this letter provides insight into MP-UNA's views:
    (a) the traditional parties are out of touch and lack
    credibility; (b) only a direct popular consultation (read:  a
    referendum) would provide a truly sovereign decision; (c) the
    political elites in the U.S. and Panama are tricking the
    Panamanian people; and (d) integration with Panama's
    neighbors through ALBA is the preferred path to economic
    integration.  Floor managers of the TPA debate pressed to
    conclude discussions of the treaty before MP-UNA, through
    organizations such as SUNTRACS and FRENADESO (National Front
    for the Defense of Economic and Social Rights), could mount a
    significant protest.

    --------------------------------
    Billy Ford Apparent UP President
    --------------------------------

    ¶6.  (U)  As widely anticipated, former VP Guillermo "Billy"
    Ford is expected to be elected president of the Patriotic
    Union (UP) party at its convention on September 16.  Though
    other candidacies may still be considered, former Solidarity
    Party President Jose Raul Mulino's and former National
    Liberal Party (PLN) President Anibal Galindo's withdrawal of
    their own candidacies and endorsement of Ford on July 18
    cleared the way for an all but assured victory for Ford.
    Instead, Mulino and Galindo will accept UP vice presidencies.
     Mulino told the press, "We are building a political project,
    not simply an electoral party."  Galindo added that, by
    stepping aside to bring in Ford as a unifier, Mulino and
    Galindo were demonstrating that UP "will never place personal
    interests above those of the majority of the party or of the
    country."  Ford stated that he would accompany Mulino and
    Galindo on a nationwide tour to engage the UP rank and file.

    ¶7.  (C) Comment:  Ford stood back and allowed others to
    portray him as the best option for party unification while
    preserving enough political space to accommodate Mulino and
    Galindo.  Ford, Mulino and Galindo will have their work cut
    out for them though as they strive to energize UP bases and
    fully consolidate the Solidarity-PLN marriage that produced
    UP.  For example, only eight percent of the registered
    estimated 120,000 UP members participated in the party's
    recent internal selection of conventioneers.  Panamenista
    Party President Juan Carlos Varela told POLCOUNS on July 18
    that with Ford at the helm UP would not enter into alliance
    with the governing Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) and
    could be brought into "a grand opposition alliance" along
    with the Movement of Liberal Republican Nationals (MOLIRENA)
    and the Panamenista Party.  UP is not expected to field its
    own presidential candidate, but rather to enter into alliance
    to support another party's candidate.

    --------------------------------------------- -
    Varela:  Opposition Simplifying, Consolidating
    --------------------------------------------- -

    ¶8.  (C) Surprisingly buoyant -- his support dropped
    two-thirds from about 15 percent to about 5 percent in the
    most recent publicly available national poll -- Panamenista
    Party President told POLCOUNS July 18 that the opposition
    "scenario" was "simplifying" and the various opposition
    forces were "consolidating."  Acknowledging his own loss of
    support, Varela said he was unconcerned as "strategically"
    the dynamic in the opposition was increasingly setting up a
    three-way presidential race in which the Panamenista Party
    would necessarily be a dominate force.  Varela was dismissive
    that former President Guillermo Endara would be a force:  "He
    will not get the Panamenista support that is essential to
    him," and "His continued presence in the race helps draw the
    distinction between old dinosaurs and new fresh blood."  As
    stated above (para 7), Varela was very satisfied at
    developments in the Patriotic Union (UP) party and believed
    that they would bode well for an alliance.  Varela said that
    soon he and other leading Panamenistas like Jose Blandon, Jr.
    would issue a call for the opposition to unify (of course,
    around the Panamenista Party).  Varela expected that
    Democratic Change (CD) Party President Ricardo Martinelli
    would steer clear from such an initiative.  Martinelli,
    however, would have difficulty sustaining his commanding lead
    in the polls, presently at about 43 percent, Varela
    suggested, particularly once opposition parties held their
    formal conventions and candidates (likely to include Varela)
    announced their runs for the presidency. Varela did not think
    former presidential candidates Alberto Vallarino or Jose
    Miguel Aleman would be forces in the coming campaign.
    "Ultimately, I am very comfortable with the direction
    opposition politics are developing," Varela said.  He
    continued to advocate for an inter-party opposition primary
    -- a non-binding sounding in which opposition party members
    and independents could participate -- as the best way forward
    to consolidate the opposition.  For now, Varela stated that
    he thought there would a three-way race for president between
    Martinelli, the PRD's candidate (most likely First VP and FM
    Samuel Lewis), and a united opposition force's candidate.

    ¶9.  (C) Comment: The Panama Post concurs with Varela that
    currents in the opposition are simplifying the array of
    opposition forces and encouraging consolidation, but is not
    as convinced that everything may be breaking Varela's way.
    There are still too many cards to be played in the
    opposition's game of Texas Hold'em, and the Panama Post would
    like to see a few more cards before placing any bets.

    --------------------------------------------- --
    Jose Miguel Aleman to be Endara's VP Candidate?
    --------------------------------------------- --

    ¶10.  (C) In last week's edition, the Panama Post reported
    that Endara might have chosen his vice presidential nominee,
    according to Endara's close advisor Menalco Solis.  Well,
    accompanying Endara and Solis to lunch with the Ambassador
    next Monday (July 23) will be former Panamenista Party
    Presidential candidate Jose Miguel Aleman.  Separately, we
    learned from Solis' son that Aleman would likely be Endara's
    vice presidential running mate.  Aleman is close to former
    President Mireya Moscoso.  Panamenista Party President Varela
    seemed decidedly uninterested and unconcerned on July 18
    regarding Aleman's political activities.  Keep your eyes open
    for next week's edition to see if the Panama Post has
    anything further to report on Endara's vice presidential
    choice and the impact that it might have.

    --------------------------------------------- ---------
    Minister of Government and Justice Olga Golcher Dishes
    --------------------------------------------- ---------

    ¶11.  (C) "Pedro Miguel Gonzalez will not be the next
    President of the National Assembly," Minister of Government
    and Justice told DCM on July 18.  "Torrijos knows that that
    would create problems with you and that the U.S. has strong
    objections to Pedro Miguel."  In lieu of National Assembly
    Presidency, Golcher asserted that Gonzalez would be given a
    seat on the PRD's Nationial Executive Committee (CEN).
    Turning to the issue of who would be the PRD's nomination for
    preident, Golcher said that Minister of Housing Balbina
    Herrera was "uncomfortable" being the "front-runner" in the
    latest poll.  Concerned that voters tended to switch from one
    party to another from election to election, Golcher explained
    basically that Herrera did not want to lose by being caught
    on the downswing as voters turned the PRD out of power.  From
    this perspective, Golcher said Herrera would be better off
    winning the race for Mayor of Panama City and making a run
    for president instead in 2014.

    ¶12.  (C) Comment:  The Panama Post has been putting the word
    on the street for the past few weeks that installing
    Gonzalez, a wanted fugitive for the 1992 murder of a U.S.
    serviceman who is also ineligible for a U.S. visa on
    terrorism grounds, as the next National Assembly President
    would be a very, very bad move;  the message appears to have
    gotten through.  As for Herrera, whether she wants to run for
    President or Mayor of Panama City, time will only tell.  This
    week, driven by a "the PRD will be driven out of power" vibe,
    Herrera may be more inclined to going the safe route and
    running for mayor.  Only one thing about Herrera is clear
    though:  she will have an important role to play in the PRD's
    unfolding electoral strategy for 2009.
    Eaton

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