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### Viewing cable 06SAOPAULO968, POLLSTER GIVES AlCKMIN A FIGHTING CHANCE IN ELECTIONS, SEES

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06SAOPAULO968 | 2006-09-06 13:11 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Consulate Sao Paulo

`

    VZCZCXRO2492
    PP RUEHRG
    DE RUEHSO #0968/01 2491311
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    P 061311Z SEP 06
    FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5733
    INFO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6795
    RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 2761
    RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 2446
    RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 2148
    RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 1863
    RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ 3008
    RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 7413
    RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 3121
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
    RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SAO PAULO 000968

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    STATE PASS USTR FOR MSULLIVAN
    STATE PASS EXIMBANK
    STATE PASS OPIC FOR MORONESE, RIVERA, MERVENNE
    NSC FOR FEARS
    SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
    USAID/W FOR LAC/AA

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON BR
    SUBJECT: POLLSTER GIVES AlCKMIN A FIGHTING CHANCE IN ELECTIONS, SEES
    LIMITED REFORMS IN A SECOND LULA GOVERNMENT

    ¶1.  SUMMARY: Marcia Cavallari Nunes, Executive Director of the
    prestigious "IBOPE" polling firm, believes opposition candidate
    Geraldo Alckmin still has a chance to deny President Lula a
    first-round electoral victory, but that it would require an
    unpredictable combination of events between now and October 1.  She
    attributed Alckmin's failure to connect with the electorate to his
    ponderous, deliberate speaking style and complex parsing of issues,
    which voters have no patience for.  If he decides to go on the
    attack against Lula, as many of his supporters have been urging him
    to do, he needs to do so carefully, as polls show voters often
    resent and react against negative campaigning.  Cavallari noted the
    manner in which Lula has distanced his campaign from that of his
    Workers' Party (PT) and predicted that the PT will suffer losses in
    Congressional elections, while the centrist Brazilian Democratic
    Movement Party (PMDB) will gain seats and exercise considerable
    influence both in Congress and in a second Lula administration.
    Assuming he is re-elected, she said Lula may be able to enact some
    form of tax reform and industrial relations reform, both of which
    would bring tangible benefits to voters, but, despite his campaign
    promises, doubted he would be able to bring about political reform
    due to entrenched interests and a lack of consensus among the
    political class.  END SUMMARY.

    ¶2.  A series of recent polls show President Lula holding steady and
    even slightly increasing his numbers and suggest that if the
    election were held today, he would win in a first round with a
    little more than 50 percent of the valid votes cast.  The recent
    IBOPE (Brazilian Institute for Public Opinion and Education) poll
    also reported increasing levels of voter alienation; 57 percent
    indicated they would probably not vote were it not required by law.
    (NOTE: While voting is mandatory, some voters stay away from the
    polls regardless, and others simply submit blank or "spoiled"
    ballots.)  Cavallari cited a number of reasons: Elections in the
    past were often enlivened by the PT's strong militancy; now,
    however, after four years at the helm of the federal government, and
    still reeling from the political corruption scandal that costs it
    much of its leadership, the PT is increasingly viewed by voters as
    just another party like all the others, no longer inspiring either
    enthusiastic support or passionate opposition.  The fact that 20 of
    27 gubernatorial races involve incumbents running for re-election,
    many of them poised to win in the first round, is another cause of
    voter apathy.

    --------------------------------
    ALCKMIN CAN STILL TURN IT AROUND
    --------------------------------

    ¶3.  Nevertheless, Cavallari believes many voters remain engaged and
    interested, and that Alckmin still has time to improve his
    performance enough to deny Lula a first-round victory and force a
    runoff.  Enough undecided voters, and voters whose current support
    for Lula is tepid and subject to change, are still out there to be
    tapped by Alckmin under the right circumstances.  Given that
    economic issues are such a strong determinant of voter preferences
    and that Lula's strong position in the polls is based substantially
    on a general satisfaction with the economy, any economic bad news
    that affects a large number of people or undermines confidence could
    still hurt Lula.  The recently announced layoffs at Volkswagen in
    Sao Bernardo do Campo(which the company subsequently rescinded) and
    newly released economic figures showing lower GDP growth than
    anticipated, while in themselves not sufficient, are examples of
    events that might provoke some voters to change their minds.  New
    evidence of corruption on Lula's part, should it emerge, could also
    diminish his lead, but Cavallari cautioned that most voters are
    tired of the scandals, and the only thing likely to rouse their
    indignation would be evidence of theft of public funds for personal
    gain.

    ¶4.  Cavallari attributed Alckmin's failure thus far to connect with
    voters to his bland personal style and manner of communication.
    Because he addresses issues in such a measured, deliberate manner,
    full of pauses, many observers perceive his message as programmed or
    canned (though, ironically, it isn't; this is simply the way he
    talks).  In contrast, Lula's spontaneous, relaxed style goes down
    well even with voters who disagree with the substance of his

    SAO PAULO 00000968  002 OF 003

    message.  For this reason, Cavallari continued, when the scandal
    broke in mid-2005 and was laid at his doorstep, important elements
    of the public were inclined to protect him and even make excuses for
    him.  This, combined with the opposition's possibly fatal error of
    not knocking him out while they had him on the ropes, enabled him to
    survive, and after a difficult period he was able in January to
    begin a recovery that surprised many.  This apparent spontaneity,
    however, carries risks of his own; on several occasions, Lula has
    committed gaffes or made inaccurate, possibly even dishonest,
    assertions which have made him look bad; too many more of those in
    the last month of the campaign could also damage him in the polls
    and make him look less unbeatable.  Observers have commented on
    Lula's lack of a "self-censorship" mechanism.

    ---------------------------
    TO ATTACK OR NOT TO ATTACK?
    ---------------------------

    ¶5.  Up to now, Cavallari noted, Alckmin has avoided attacking Lula
    directly, both because it is incompatible with his personal style
    and because he fears it might backfire on him.  However, as he
    continues to trail and as time runs short, more and more of his
    supporters are urging him to take the gloves off.  Any attempt to
    attack Lula on ethical grounds, however, needs to be carefully
    planned and mixed with more positive messages, because many
    lower-class people identify with Lula and many voters are alienated
    by negative campaigning.  (NOTE: During the week of August 28,
    Alckmin's speeches and those of his supporters were more combative
    in tone, and his television advertising, which up to now had focused
    on his biography and accomplishments, made explicit references to
    the scandals that have plagued the Lula administration.  One PSDB
    insider told us privately that he expected this more aggressive
    approach to increase in intensity over the next few weeks, while at
    the same time the PSDB would release, piece by piece, its detailed
    government program and contrast it with the PT's government program,
    which was published August 29.  END NOTE.)

    ------------------------------------------
    CHALLENGES IN A SECOND LULA ADMINISTRATION
    ------------------------------------------

    ¶6.  Cavallari commented on the way Lula has campaigned almost
    without reference to the PT, which was such a visible part of all
    his previous campaigns.  He evidently believes -- rightly -- that
    the party is damaged goods, more a hindrance than a help in
    attracting votes, and he has done little or nothing to help PT
    gubernatorial or congressional candidates.  The resulting lack of
    coattails, combined with the party's already damaged reputation,
    will hurt the party in the Congressional races, she said.  The PT
    will almost inevitably elect fewer than its current 81 Federal
    Deputies; the only question is how bad a loss it will suffer.  The
    PMDB, on the other hand, is on track to elect as many as 15
    Governors, and its strength in so many states will propel it to an
    increase over its current total of 79 Deputies.  (Some observers
    believe it will win up to 100 seats.)  Alckmin's PSDB will also
    likely lose some seats, further strengthening the PMDB's position.
    This will complicate Lula's task of governing.  He can appoint PMDB
    members to Cabinet and other important positions (as he has
    indicated a willingness to do), but even so, he will have a
    difficult time garnering the fragmented party's united support for
    his initiatives.  As many smaller parties lose their viability as a
    result of failing to meet the five percent threshold mandated by the
    "Barrier Clause" in effect for the first time this year, a key
    question will be where their elected members migrate to and what
    dynamic emerges in a new Chamber and Senate composed of only about
    seven political parties as opposed to the current 15-17.

    ¶7.  In this new setting, Cavallari predicted that Lula may be able
    to push through some limited tax reform or industrial relations
    reform, but that the political reform he has promised will be very
    difficult to achieve, because there exists little consensus as to
    what it should encompass.  (NOTE: Curiously, Lula's government
    program does not even mention tax reform or social security reform.
    END NOTE.)

    SAO PAULO 00000968  003 OF 003

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    COMMENT
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    ¶8.  While Alckmin's supporters have pinned their hopes on the
    subsidized television advertising (which began August 15), polls
    indicate that a large portion of the electorate is not even
    watching, and that so far it is not changing voters' preferences.
    It will be interesting to see if this remains the case as Alckmin's
    ads attempt to target Lula more directly.  END COMMENT.

    ¶9.  This cable was coordinated/cleared with Embassy Brasilia.

    MCMULLEN

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