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### Viewing cable 06MANAGUA1383, SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF STATE DEPARTMENT

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06MANAGUA1383 | 2006-06-23 17:16 | 2011-06-01 08:00 | SECRET | Embassy Managua

Appears in these articles:
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758456.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758467.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758468.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758464.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4103/la-embusa-y-el-gabinete-de-ortega
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4104/d-rsquo-escoto-en-onu-ldquo-un-desafio-de-ortega-a-ee-uu-rdquo
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4102/estrada-y-la-ldquo-doble-cara-rdquo-ante-ee-uu
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3966/la-ldquo-injerencia-rdquo-de-ee-uu-en-el-2006
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-23/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2758764.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-23/Mundo/NotaPrincipal/Mundo2758753.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4041/millones-de-dolares-sin-control-y-a-discrecion
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4040/la-ldquo-injerencia-rdquo-de-venezuela-en-2006
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4047/rodrigo-barreto-enviado-de-ldquo-vacaciones-rdquo
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2757239.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/NotaPrincipal/Mundo2746658.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2757244.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2746673.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3991/dra-yadira-centeno-desmiente-cable-diplomatico-eeuu
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3968/pellas-pronostico-a-eeuu-victoria-de-ortega-en-2006
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3967/barreto-era-ldquo-fuente-confiable-rdquo-para-eeuu

`

    VZCZCXYZ0000
    OO RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHMU #1383/01 1741716
    ZNY SSSSS ZZH
    O 231716Z JUN 06
    FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6745
    INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0712
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC

` `

    S E C R E T MANAGUA 001383

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    DEPARTMENT FOR WHA ASSISTANT SECRETARY THOMAS SHANNON AND
    WHA SENIOR ADVISOR OF PUBLIC DIPLOMACY MARIA TAMBURRI,
    WHA/CEN

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/23/2026
    TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PHUM MARR MOPS KDEM ECON EFIN
    NU
    SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF STATE DEPARTMENT
    ASSISTANT SECRETARY THOMAS SHANNON

    Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D).

    ¶1.  (S) Summary/Introduction: Your visit to Nicaragua allows
    you to reiterate U.S. opposition to the Sandinista
    (FSLN)-Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) pact and assure the
    Nicaraguan people that we share their desire for free, fair,
    credible, and inclusive elections.  Your presence will also
    confirm to Nicaraguans that the USG speaks with one voice vis
    a vis Nicaragua and will dispel the PLC's disinformation
    campaign alleging the removal of the Ambassador and its bogus
    linkage of the Deputy Secretary's resignation to a shift in
    U.S. policy.  Meeting with both Liberal dissident Eduardo
    Montealegre and FSLN dissident Herty Lewites will demonstrate
    that we support principles and not specific presidential
    candidates.  Preparations for Nicaragua's November 5
    elections are generally on track, but critical challenges
    remain, including providing national/voter IDs to tens of
    thousands of Nicaraguans.  Financial backing for Liberal
    dissident Eduardo Montealegre's campaign, including from
    local financiers and the Taiwanese, appears to be coming on
    board, if slowly. Montealegre's most immediate challenge is
    to unite the disparate egos and parties supporting him around
    a common purpose.  End Summary/Introduction.

    ¶2.  (C) President Bolanos still relies on FSLN and PLC
    support, or at least non-interference, in the National
    Assembly to effectively govern.  The relapse of his son
    Javier, who suffers from leukemia, has understandably
    dampened his spirits.  If his son's condition worsens,
    President Bolanos may be out of country during your visit.
    Bolanos considers CAFTA and the Millennium Challenge Compact
    the pillars of his lasting legacy for Nicaragua, along with
    achieving debt relief and his goal to turn over a country
    with a stable macro-economy and an ongoing IMF program to his
    successor.  He is also justifiably proud of having taken a
    firm stand against the caudillos of corruption, although he
    recognizes that he has paid a heavy political price.

    ¶3.  (C) President Bolanos has not succeeded in his lobbying
    of the Assembly to vote for MANPADS destruction.  The
    military and the Defense Ministry (MOD) allege the problem
    lies with an uncooperative legislature, while lawmakers point
    fingers at the military and MOD for tying further destruction
    to military hardware in return.  The PLC links its votes for
    MANPADS destruction on amnesty for Aleman and the FSLN ties
    its support to a meeting between the Ambassador and Daniel
    Ortega -- an unwise move during this pivotal election year.

    ¶4.  (S) Your meeting with President Bolanos will allow you to
    reiterate our support for the Nicaraguan government (GON);
    congratulate him for supporting CAFTA-DR and the MCC compact;
    press him to act on his commitment to destroy all remaining
    in the Nicaraguan Army's inventory; and urge his government
    to resolve more outstanding property confiscations of U.S.
    citizens before the end of the 2005-2006 waiver period.  You
    may also encourage President Bolanos to continue engaging his
    regional counterparts, the Taiwanese, and the region's
    private sector to back Montealegre's campaign, while avoiding
    public statements that suggest Montealegre is a cookie-cutter
    replica of his persona.  President Bolanos and Foreign
    Minister Norman Caldera may also raise concerns over U.S.
    Immigration Reform Bill and how it might affect the thousands
    of Nicaraguans residing in the United States.

    ¶5.  (C) Additional points to raise in your separate meeting
    with Foreign Minister Caldera could include the following:

    --Appreciate his courage in publicly supporting U.S. efforts
    to ensure Nicaragua holds clean, fair, and credible elections
    and his denouncement of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez'
    direct interference in Nicaragua's presidential campaign.

    --Recognize GON support for its support of the adoption of
    the Third Additional Protocol and membership in the Red Cross
    and Red Crescent Movement (Movement) for the Israeli national
    society, the Magen David Adom (MDA). Nicaragua voted in favor
    of the initiative during the June 20-21 International
    Conference of the Red Cross and Red Crescent.

    --Urge the GON to rethink its support for Japan's whaling
    policies (as a recipient of Japanese aid, the GON is
    reluctant to cross the Japanese on this issue, but some local
    environmental groups are starting to challenge the GON's

    position).

    --Motivate the GON to revive its diplomatic relations with
    Iraq.  According to the MFA, the GON never severed its
    diplomatic ties with Iraq, but its relations are not active.
    Caldera has expressed interest in meeting with the new Iraqi
    Ambassador to the United Nations, Hamid al-Biyati, on his
    next trip to New York, possibly in July.

    --Encourage the GON to send a military staff contingent to
    Iraq, Afghanistan, or Kuwait.  While the GON is receptive to
    deploying de-mining specialists or light infantry to Iraq or
    Afghanistan, deployment would require a vote of approval from
    a hostile National Assembly.  The Defense Minister has
    suggested, however, that sending de-mining specialists as
    part of the UN mission in Afghanistan or staff officers to
    Kuwait or Afghanistan may be more feasible.  National
    Assembly approval would not be required.

    U.S./CEPPS AND CIVIL SOCIETY ELECTION SUPPORT REVS UP
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶6.  (C) Our support for free, fair, inclusive and transparent
    elections is crucial, especially given the FSLN's and PLC's
    control over the National Assembly, the courts and the
    Supreme Electoral Council (CSE).  Timely international
    technical assistance and monitoring will help stem the
    efforts of the FSLN and the PLC to fraudulently manipulate
    election results.  During the recent voter list (padron)
    verification process, the CSE discovered that thousands of
    Nicaraguans had migrated from the Atlantic Coast North and
    South Autonomous Zones (RAAN and RAAS) back to the adjacent
    departments of Matagalpa and Jinotega.  CSE President Roberto
    Rivas, ALN candidate Eduardo Montealegre, and others have
    called for an investigation into this apparent irregularity
    (NOTE:  Montealegre suspects that the PLC may have moved
    supporters from Matagalpa and Jinotega to the Atlantic coast
    to stack the March 5 Atlantic Coast elections in its favor
    and these maneuvers would explain why the PLC fared better
    than expected in the RAAN.
     END NOTE.)

    ¶7.  (SBU) CEPPS partners IFES, IRI, and NDI and their local
    affiliates are now fully engaged in helping Nicaraguans
    prepare for their November 5 national elections.  Election
    program activities are exerting a significant positive impact
    on the electoral environment, encouraging greater
    transparency and accountability from the CSE and increasing
    voter participation and awareness.  As the political parties
    begin campaigning in earnest, we expect the civil society and
    technical assistance components of the program will rev up to
    ensure a more substantive debate and greater responsiveness
    to constituent interests.  Your dinner with CEPPS partners
    and local affiliates will allow you to convey our
    appreciation for their fine efforts and query participants
    about specific concerns and areas of weakness that merit
    attention. A summary of CEPPS efforts:

    -- Padron Audit: NDI, working with the local chapter of
    Ethics and Transparency (ET), finalized a civil society audit
    of the voter roll (padron) and presented their findings to
    political parties, civil society and the international
    community June 7-9.  According to the audit, roughly 25% of
    the voting population is incorrectly listed on the padron,
    which will impede their ability to vote.  Further, 10% of the
    voting population (individuals currently possessing a
    national/voter ID card, called "cedula") is not included on
    the padron.  According to ET, both of these problems can be
    remedied through the CSE verification process.  NDI
    redirected program monies from other projects to fund
    national observation of the verification process and a public
    awareness campaign.  CSE President Roberto Rivas claimed that
    ET had not been "authorized" to perform a civil society audit
    of the padron, but the CSE has not refuted any of the
    findings of the study.  NDI has offered to provide training
    to all the political parties on
     how to use the findings of the audit to ensure their
    constituents are registered to vote.

    --Padron Verification:  With over 21 percent of eligible
    Nicaraguan voters estimated to have verified their status and
    location on the official voters list (padron), the CSE
    proclaimed the June 10-11 and 17-18 verification process a

    success.  This assessment was supported by observers from the
    Carter Center and the Latin American Council of Electoral
    Experts (CEELA).  IFES has worked closely with the CSE on
    padron verification, providing technical assistance and
    training for regional and municipal CSE officials.  IFES
    invested 100% of their public awareness funds on the
    verification process given the potential impact on the
    upcoming elections and the CSE's unwillingness to invest
    adequate funding in the verification campaign.  The OAS
    Election Observation Mission (EOM) fielded 29 observers.

    --Voter Education and Awareness:  IFES has doubled the
    capacity of the CSE voter hotline to meet the rising number
    of citizen inquiries regarding the electoral process.  IFES
    has helped the CSE update its website, making it more
    interactive and responsive to voter inquiries.  IRI has
    initiated grassroots voter awareness projects with four
    Nicaraguan civil society organizations.  Youth Vanguard is
    distributing flyers promoting voting and cedulas at
    university campuses.  Movement for Nicaragua (MpN) has radio
    and television adds encouraging citizens to obtain their
    cedulas prior to the August 6 deadline.  MpN and the
    Institute for Development and Democracy (IPADE) are
    canvassing secondary schools encouraging 16-18 year olds to
    participate in the electoral process.  MpN's youth outreach
    program reveals that 70-80% of the students visited have no
    cedula, while the majority of these youth plan to participate
    in the upcoming elections.  MpN is working with the Ministry
    of Education to provide assistance and transportation to
    students interested in applying for cedulas.  JUDENIC is
    performing focus groups with youth to finalize the slogan and
    message of the Rock the Vote campaign, to begin in late June.

    --Cedula Issuance and Retrieval: The CSE is focusing its
    efforts on encouraging eligible voters to apply for their
    cedulas and register before the August 6 deadline.  To serve
    citizens who have requested but never received voter ID
    cards, IFES conducted an inventory of all outstanding voter
    IDs (roughly 200,000 nationwide).  This information has been
    included on the CSE hotline and website and distributed to
    all CSE regional and municipal centers, as well as churches,
    civic centers, post offices and schools.  With IFES support,
    the CSE is opening seven kiosks in high-traffic markets in
    the Managua metropolitan area for citizens to solicit voter
    IDs.  The CSE claims these kiosks will provide expedited
    voter ID services in only 15 days.  Public pressure on the
    CSE appears is working, as the price to obtain a cedula has
    dropped to 20% of the previous cost.

    --Citizen Attention Centers:  With NDI support, MpN has
    extended operations in Managua.  It has also opened seven new
    Citizen Attention Centers (CAC) that help citizens to obtain
    birth certificates and soliciting voter ID cards (Rio Blanco,
    Matagalpa, Masaya, Esteli, Chinandega, Leon and Carazo).
    With additional funding, MpN will expand CAC coverage
    nationwide.  MpN held a "Cedulathon" in Managua on June 17
    with local bands and other entertainment to encourage youth
    to get their voter IDs and participate in the electoral
    process.  Cedulathon proceeds will be used to support the
    CACs.  You will visit one of the MpN Citizen Attention
    Centers during your stay.

    --Political Party Poll Watching:  IRI has finalized the
    training schedule for Herty Lewites' MRS and Eduardo
    Montealegre's ALN political party poll watchers, which will
    begin in late June and continue through August.  Based on the
    lists submitted by both parties, IRI will train 12,000 poll
    watchers for MRS and 18,000 for the ALN.  With additional
    funding, poll watcher training will be extended to Eden
    Pastora's Alternativa por el Cambio (AC) and poll watcher
    manuals will be distributed to all five parties.  (NOTE: PLC
    and FSLN poll watchers receive training through the CSE, an
    institution totally controlled by these two traditional
    parties.  END NOTE.)

    OAS TAKES GLASS HALF FULL APPROACH, PRESENCE ON GROUND SPOTTY
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  - - -  - - - -

    ¶8.  (C) OAS Mission: The OAS grant should be finalized soon.
    In the meantime, a pre-award letter allows it to spend U.S.
    funds.  Twenty OAS observers led by OAS Election Mission head
    Gustavo Fernandez and supported by political adviser Raul

    Alconada arrived in country on June 5 for the padron
    verification process.  Over the June 10-12 weekend, a team of
    three ex-foreign Ministers from the region joined the OAS
    team to add a political dimension to the process, and they
    met with leaders of the political parties competing in the
    November national election.  The OAS believes that
    cooperation with the CSE is acceptable and the chances of the
    inhibition of any of the presidential candidates are low.

    ¶9.  (C) The OAS is now addressing longer range issues: reform
    of the electoral law and regulations, what can be done to
    avoid entry into force of the pact-inspired constitutional
    reform to weaken presidential authority this January, and the
    possibility of real constitutional changes.  During your
    visit to Managua, OAS Election Mission technical director
    Patricio Gajardo will be in country.  However, Fernandez and
    Alconada's political team will not be present.  The GON has
    expressed concern that the OAS team does not maintain a
    robust political presence here, a concern we share.  Your
    meeting with Gajardo at the CEPPS dinner will provide you an
    opportunity to raise this concern.

    RALLYING DONOR SUPPORT FOR COMMON ELECTION STATEMENT
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    ¶10.  (C) The Ambassador participates in regularly scheduled
    meetings of ambassadors representing donor countries.  The
    DCM, USAID, and POL participate in working level meetings
    focusing on election support.  Embassy has been engaging
    members on the need to issue a joint donor statement in
    August to reiterate our common interest in, and commitment
    to, helping Nicaraguans hold a clean, fair, credible, and
    inclusive electoral process.  Your encouragement could help
    consolidate this initiative.

    REMINDING VOTERS OF THE ORTEGA ERA
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    ¶11.  (C) The Permanent Human Rights Commission's (CPDH)
    investigation of Sandinista era abuses against Nicaragua's
    Miskito population, which we have supported, continues to
    draw attention to the failings of the Sandinista regime.  On
    June 7, the CPDH formally denounced the alleged Sandinista
    genocide/atrocities committed against the Miskitos during the
    1980s.  The next day, CPDH held a press conference in Managua
    and filed evidence against Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega
    and others -- including written and video taped materials
    gathered from over one hundred witnesses and survivors --
    before the attorney general's and public prosecutor's
    offices.  Coverage of the cases has extended beyond Nicaragua
    including the United States.

    ¶12.  (C) Responding to Zoilamerica's request for assistance
    in continuing her case before the Inter-American Human Rights
    Commission (IAHRC) against stepfather Daniel Ortega for years
    of sexual abuse, Embassy provided her a small grant to pursue
    her case.  She is currently in the United States, where she
    will meet with IAHRC and Department officials, as well as
    foundations that may be able to help her with pro bono legal
    assistance or support her foundation Sobrevivientes
    (Survivors).  She will also meet with Spanish-speaking media
    in Miami and arrange an interview with Univision.

    ARCHBISHOP REFRAINS FROM POLITICS, CARDINAL PROMOTES ORTEGA
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶13.  (C) Unlike his predecessor Cardinal Miguel Obando y
    Bravo -- who is now openly campaigning for Daniel Ortega
    (even though the Nuncio told us the Cardinal privately favors
    Arnoldo Aleman) -- Managua Archbishop Brenes has largely
    refrained from using his office to engage in politicking.
    Instead, Brenes has urged dialogue and national consensus,
    calling for candidates to be sincere in their campaign
    promises and to refrain from smearing tactics.  Your
    encouraging Brenes to continue this constructive, apolitical
    role would be helpful.  You may clarify with him that our
    concern over a possible Ortega win in the elections stems
    from Ortega's anti-democratic rhetoric; his long record of
    complicity in human rights abuses - including against the
    Miskito Indians; and, his probable sexual abuse of his own
    stepdaughter.  (Note: On June 22, Brenes held a special mass
    for all of the presidential candidates; possibly he set the
    date knowing that Daniel Ortega was abroad.  End Note.)

    MONTEALEGRE SHIFTS INTO THIRD GEAR
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶14.  (C) Arnoldo Aleman will not cede his leadership of the
    PLC and Daniel Ortega will not let him because he relies on
    Aleman to keep the right divided.  Thus, a five-way race
    remains the likely scenario, although PLC candidate Jose Rizo
    may decide to withdraw if his numbers do not climb by
    September.  Montealegre's most immediate challenge is to
    unite the disparate egos and parties supporting him around a
    common purpose.  The results of the next poll to be released
    in July will provide a clearer idea of voter trends and may
    influence the direction of financial support.  If Montealegre
    holds strong, and support for Rizo does not climb,
    Montealegre is likely to receive all the financial backing he
    needs.  However, if Rizo's number rise, Pellas and other
    financiers may leave Montealegre hanging another month before
    they decide where to place the bulk of their support.

    ¶15.  (C) Much of Nicaraguan and regional capital appears
    poised to back Montealegre's campaign, although some, like
    Nicaraguan industrialist Carlos Pellas, are likely to hedge
    their bets by giving smaller quantities of cash to his
    competitors, including Daniel Ortega.  Carlos Pellas has
    assured us that he will back Montealegre.  Montealegre's
    running mate Fabricio Cajina confirmed to us on June 21 that
    Chamorro-Pellas family patriarch Carlos Chamorro told him
    that Montealegre will obtain the funds he requires.  We have
    also confirmed that Taiwanese interests will support
    Montealegre's campaign and that they will not/not help PLC
    candidate Jose Rizo.  Impressing upon Montealegre the
    immediacy of uniting his alliance around a common purpose and
    platform will be helpful.  He may seek your reassurance that
    we will not cave to pressures from the PLC, which constantly
    waves the Ortega and Chavez flags to scare us into supporting
    PLC candidate Rizo.

    ENGAGING HERTY
    - - - - - - - -

    ¶16.  (C) Lewites has been effusive in his desire to maintain
    cordial, constructive, and cooperative relations with the
    United States.  Lewites has also been supportive of CAFTA,
    with the observation that small farmers and small business
    must in some way be assisted.  He favors MANPADS destruction,
    asserting "they are of no good use to anybody."  Some Embassy
    contacts do not trust Lewites' intentions, noting that
    members of Lewite's immediate circle are "orthodox"
    Sandinistas.  Others insist Lewites could eventually rejoin
    the Ortega fold; still others claim the bad blood between
    them is such that they will never form an alliance.  We
    believe that for now, encouraging the Sandinista division and
    focusing USG criticism on the "Danielistas" specifically,
    instead of "Sandinistas" as a group, is appropriate.  Keeping
    Lewites in the race will also subtract votes from Ortega and
    could spell the difference between Ortega's winning on the
    first round or losing on the second.

    ¶17.  (C) Your meeting with Lewites will allow you to
    reinforce our position that we have no election favorite and
    that we support democratic candidates who desire responsible
    government and constructive relations with the United States.
     You may wish to encourage him to visit Washington (he has
    told us he might visit closer to the November election).  His
    selection of Dr. Edmundo Jarquin (IADB consultant, lawyer and
    economist, former university professor, Ambassador to Spain
    and Mexico during the Sandinista regime, and a National
    Assembly Deputy in the early 1990s) as his running mate
    suggests that if elected, he would practice sound
    macro-economic policies.

    MEET AND GREET
    - - - - - - - -

    ¶18.  (U) Your meeting with the Embassy community will show
    high-level appreciation for their efforts to ensure Nicaragua
    holds free, fair, and transparent elections in 2006.  The
    Mission has 80 American employees, 11 Family Member
    employees, 310 local engaged staff (LES), and 280 local
    guards.  In addition to State and USAID, DAO, Mil Group, DEA,
    OBO, RLA, USDA/FAS/APHIS, Peace Corps, and Millennium
    Challenge Account offices are present.  Construction began on

    the New Embassy Compound in February 2005.  The new embassy
    is situated on 13 acres; the former Ambassador ("Casa
    Grande") and DCM residences (currently Marine offices) are on
    the site.  The expected date of completion of the Embassy is
    around April 2006.  The new USAID complex will be co-located
    on the land and completed around May 2007.
    TRIVELLI

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