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### Viewing cable 07BRASILIA2217, BRAZIL'S FOREIGN MINISTER DISCUSSES GLOBAL,

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07BRASILIA2217 | 2007-12-03 21:27 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Brasilia

`

    VZCZCXRO2497
    OO RUEHRG
    DE RUEHBR #2217/01 3372127
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 032127Z DEC 07
    FM AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0569
    INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 6426
    RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 4397
    RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 5145
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 3883
    RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ 5780
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    RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0022
    RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 7447
    RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 5516
    RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO 1256
    RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL//SCJ2-I/J5/HSE/DIA REP//
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
    RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 1544
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
    RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
    RUEHC/USDOC WASHDC

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 BRASILIA 002217

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    STATE FOR WHA/FO FOR A/S SHANNON, WHA/BSC, NEA/FO
    STATE PASS USTR FOR KATE DUCKWORTH
    NSC FOR TOMASULO
    TREASURY FOR JHOEK
    SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
    USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC
    USDOC ALSO FOR 3134/USFCS/OIO
    USAID FOR LAC/AA

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2017
    TAGS: PREL PGOV ETRD KPAL OVIP EFIN AMGT VE BL AR
    BR
    SUBJECT: BRAZIL'S FOREIGN MINISTER DISCUSSES GLOBAL,
    REGIONAL AND BILATERAL ISSUES

    Classified By: AMBASSADOR CLIFFORD M. SOBEL; REASONS: 1.4 (B, D)

    ------
    SUMMARY
    -------

    ¶1.  (C) In a November 30 meeting in Sao Paulo, Ambassador
    Sobel and Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim discussed a
    range of global, regional and bilateral issues. On the
    region's most pressing issues - such as political
    developments in Venezuela and Bolivia, and Colombia-Venezuela
    bilateral tensions - Amorim called for moderation and
    dialogue, but shied away from committing Brazil to play a
    role as mediator.  On global issues, Amorim voiced optimism
    on the Annapolis Conference and the prospects for a deal on
    agriculture to push the Doha trade negotiations forward.  As
    for the range of bilateral issues that are on the table, the
    meeting revealed considerable agreement on such matters as:
    the tax treaty, recently passed legislation on the sale of
    diplomatic property and aviation negotiations.  In addition
    to making suggestions for Secretary Rice's upcoming visit to
    Brazil, Amorim indicated a willingness to meet with senior
    USG officials traveling to Brazil in the coming months.

    -------------------------------- --------------------
    Venezuela: Amorim fears turmoil with victory of 'No'
    -------------------------------- --------------------

    ¶2.  (C) With two days before the December 2 referendum in
    Venezuela, the Ambassador asked Amorim his view of the likely
    outcome.  Amorim responded that according to the GOB's
    analysis, the 'yes' (pro-Chavez) was likely to win by a
    slight margin.  He noted that the victory of the 'yes' is
    probably "the best result because I'm more fearful if the
    'no' is victorious.  I think there could be a lot of
    turmoil."  In this regard, Amorim referenced - but did not
    elaborate on - Chavez' recent statements about having to
    rethink his own future and that of the Bolivarian Revolution
    in the event of a loss in the referendum.
    The Ambassador solicited Amorim's views on the likelihood
    that the vote tabulations would be transparent in the absence
    of international observers.  Amorim admitted that he didn't
    know, and regretted that there would be no OAS presence.
    Looking at his advisors, Amorim said, "this is something we
    should have thought about earlier." (Note: Given the close
    results of the referendum, post will continue to engage MRE
    counterparts on this issue to gauge the level of concern. End
    Note)

    ----------------------------------
    Bolivia: GOB reluctant to mediate
    ----------------------------------

    ¶3.  (C) In responding to the Ambassador's mention of the
    recent violence in Bolivia surrounding the reconvening of the
    Constituent Assembly, Amorim responded that the GOB is
    following the developments with "interest and concern" but
    that it "is not easy to see what to do."  He noted that the
    current violence has been perpetrated mostly by the
    opposition.  He regretted the opposition's decision to
    boycott the Assembly.  The Ambassador asked if the GOB had
    any reaction to the decision to move forward in voting for
    the new Constitution without the participation of the
    opposition.  Amorim admitted that "this was not a good
    approach" but on the other hand emphasized that the Bolivian

    BRASILIA 00002217  002 OF 005

    government is assuring that the opposition Assembly members
    have nothing to fear.  In responding to the Ambassador's
    question on whether the retraction of the draft Constitution
    is on the table, Amorim stated that a complete retraction is
    "very difficult" although he noted that as a face-saving
    measure, some articles could be revisited.  (Note: subsequent
    media reports contradict this prediction. End Note)

    ¶4.  (C) Amorim said that the challenge is to convince people
    that dialogue is better than confrontation.  He emphasized
    that the GOB "is on the side of moderation and dialogue."  He
    warned against the opposition acting "in a putschist way or
    threatening to secede."  Amorim noted that the GOB has been
    approached by Bolivia's opposition, "but we have to be
    careful.  Mediation is not something you go around loosely
    offering."  (Note: Amorim inserted a passing reference to the
    bilateral tensions between Colombia and Venezuela, and
    indicated that Brazil is not keen to play a mediator role in
    this situation either, as has been speculated in the press.
    End Note)  Amorim expressed his hope that Lula's upcoming
    visit to Bolivia "and what it symbolized" will help alleviate
    the crisis.  On the other hand, Amorim also mentioned that
    Lula is reluctant to meet with the opposition during that
    trip.  Amorim warned that comparisons with the circumstances
    surrounding the downfall of former Bolivian president Gonzalo
    Sanchez de Lozada are not well-founded, as Morales - unlike
    Sanchez de Lozada - still enjoys the support of the majority
    of the Bolivian population.  (Note: Sanchez de Lozada
    resigned mid-term in October 2003 following weeks of civil
    unrest and protests, involving now-President Evo Morales. End
    Note)

    ¶5.  (C) The Ambassador asked Amorim for his views on the
    extent of Venezuela's involvement in Bolivia. Amorim
    responded that there is an "obvious relationship, but it is
    hard to say how much influence."  He also noted that while
    Chavez may have "hopes or illusions that he can operate
    independently because of oil" Evo's situation is different
    and he would never, for example, attack the King of Spain (as
    Chavez did during the recent Ibero-American Summit in
    Santiago).

    ------------------------------------
    Doha: a new roadmap on agriculture?
    ------------------------------------

    ¶6.  (C) The Ambassador noted with appreciation Amorim's
    comments following his November 26 meeting with USTR
    Ambassador Susan Schwab.  Amorim recognized that he was
    making an effort in his remarks to highlight the "positive
    climate" despite negotiating hard issues.  He referenced a
    new phase in the Doha talks that will come soon, which
    coincides with press interviews he gave earlier in the day
    predicting ministerial level talks on agriculture in
    February.  In discussing an eventual new text on agriculture
    that he expected for late January, Amorim admitted that he
    "doesn,t know what it will look like" but emphasized that
    the U.S. and Brazil have several "coincidental interests."
    Amorim listed market access, quota calculations and tariff
    caps, and said there was partial convergence on export
    competition.

    ¶7.  (C) Amorim stated his belief that "If we have a
    reasonable result in agriculture, there could be a good
    outcome."  In referring to the position Brazil took during

    BRASILIA 00002217  003 OF 005

    the October talks in Geneva regarding the percentage of
    special products that can be exempt from tariff lines, Amorim
    called for a "non-governmental approach on flexibilities."
    In defining what he meant by that, Amorim reiterated the
    position that "Mercosur -as a customs union made up of
    developing countries - still has asymmetries. We don't all
    have the same 10 percent.  Everyone will have to put his or
    her touch on the documents, and there is no reason to be
    dogmatic on some issues and flexible on others."

    ¶8.  (C) The Ambassador inquired on Brazil's outlook on
    Argentina vis--vis president-elect Cristina Fernandez de
    Kirchner.  Amorim shied away from the question, but noted
    that president-elect Kirchner "is a female president, and all
    countries like to have their value and worth."  He mentioned
    recent press reports coming out of Argentina that "are less
    than encouraging" in that they argue that an agriculture
    trade deal is not urgent "as the price of commodities will be
    high for some time." He then suggested that Ambassador Schwab
    make a trip to Argentina as soon as possible. (Comment:
    Amorim's comments about "value and worth" were unclear but
    perhaps he was pointing to a potentially stronger stance
    concerning agriculture.  In suggesting that Ambassador Schwab
    visit soon, Amorim may believe that she can moderate the
    president-elect's negotiating line on agriculture and at the
    same time make Argentina less dependant on Brazil advocating
    Argentine interests. End Comment)

    ---------------------------------- ------------------------
    Annapolis: A new opportunity for Brazil's global leadership
    ambitions?
    --------------------------------- -------------------------

    ¶9.  (C) Amorim characterized the outcome of the Annapolis
    Conference as "very positive" and was thankful for the
    invitation to participate.  He appreciated the opportunity to
    reiterate Brazil's position on the Israeli-Palestinian
    conflict, and emphasized the importance of the broad
    participation of the international community as a way to
    increase the stakes.  Amorim praised Secretary Rice for the
    way that she "intelligently" utilized her own childhood to
    empathize with both the Palestinians and the Israelis.

    ¶10.  (C) Amorim reiterated the GOB's desire to play a more
    significant role than in the past, specifically offering to
    host a conference for Israeli and Palestinian civil society
    leaders.  (Note: This offer was mentioned in Amorim's
    November 27 intervention at the Annapolis Conference. End
    Note)  The Ambassador suggested that this be a topic of
    conversation during the Secretary's visit to Brazil in
    January.  (Comment: While discussing Annapolis, Amorim
    mentioned that he is "sick of trade" and intimated that he is
    looking to branch out and take on new issues that would put
    Brazil in the spotlight as a global leader among developing
    countries.  From Brazil's perspective, the Annapolis
    Conference offers a new outlet for Brazil's global leadership
    ambitions. End Comment)

    ----------------------------------------
    No major obstacles for bilateral issues
    ----------------------------------------

    ¶11.  (C) The Ambassador and Amorim discussed a series of
    issues on the bilateral agenda:

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    - Tax Treaty:  In reference to follow-up to the October CEO
    Forum, the Ambassador noted his hope that there would be
    forward movement soon on negotiating a tax treaty.  Amorim
    voiced his support for the treaty ("this is a good thing"),
    but noted that the Brazilian IRS (Receita Federal) is "the
    most difficult (institution) to work with."

    - Property bill:  The Ambassador highlighted the recent
    unanimous vote in Brazil,s Senate in favor of the agreement
    on buying and selling diplomatic properties, a contentious
    issue for many years that has resulted in reciprocity
    measures.  Amorim indicated that he was not surprised at all
    by this development, as &the U.S. is in the hearts of
    everyone right now8.  The Ambassador assured Amorim that the
    bill,s passage will open the way for an expeditious opening
    of the Brazilian Consulate General in Atlanta.  The
    Ambassador also noted that he will be meeting with the
    appointed Consul General in the coming days.

    - Visas for law enforcement: The Ambassador referenced the
    recent delays in USG law enforcement officials obtaining
    their visas.  He emphasized that while the U.S. makes every
    effort to process such visas for Brazilian authorities within
    a day or two, the Brazilians are taking weeks.  Amorim
    promised to look into the situation.

    - Civil aviation negotiations: While this issue was not
    discussed at length, Amorim noted that the Foreign Ministry
    is very supportive of opening direct routes between the U.S.
    and Brazil's Northeast, a topic expected to be agreed upon
    during the upcoming bilateral aviation negotiations.  The
    Ambassador suggested that Secretary Rice and Foreign Minister
    Amorim could jointly announce these new routes from Salvador
    on January 10.

    - Cultural exchanges: Amorim suggested that the Mission bring
    to Brazil an art exhibit of a prominent American artist, even
    if only comprised of a dozen works of art.  Amorim promised
    to preside over an eventual inauguration.  The Ambassador
    made reference to the recently opened photographic exhibit
    commemorating 50 years of the Fulbright program in Brazil and
    the Missions intent to bring the exhibit to every state in
    Brazil.

    - Codel wrap-up: The Ambassador made reference to the recent
    large Codels that visited Brazil, and in particular to the
    synergies that emerged during the Codel Engel visit to the
    Brazilian Congress.  The Ambassador noted that Congressman
    Meeks was particularly enthused about possible future
    cooperation between the Congressional Black Caucus and
    Brazilian legislators.

    --------------------
    Upcoming USG Visits
    --------------------

    ¶12.  (C) The Ambassador provided a status report on the
    planning for Secretary Rice's trip to Brazil in January,
    which he noted has not yet been 100% confirmed.  He mentioned
    that she would likely arrive in Salvador on January 10,
    following stops in two or three other countries in the
    region.  Amorim suggested that while in Salvador, the
    Secretary should visit the old city, a social project and

    SIPDIS
    possibly a site representative of Salvador's African origins.

    BRASILIA 00002217  005 OF 005

    ¶13.  (C) The Ambassador referenced A/S Tom Shannon's visit to
    Brazil during the second week of December.  Amorim indicated
    that he would be happy to meet with A/S Shannon if in town.
    In discussing a possible future trip for U/S Nick Burns,
    Amorim suggested that he try to schedule a visit to coincide
    with Carnival (first week of February).

    -------
    COMMENT
    -------

    ¶14.  (C) Brazil,s intent to seize on global leadership
    issues ) such as the Annapolis Conference and the Doha
    negotiations ) contrasts with their stated preference to
    maintain distance from South America,s most contentious
    issues: Venezuela and Bolivia.  As for bilateral relations,
    Amorim signaled continued goodwill, which can be further
    harnessed during upcoming visits by senior USG officials.

    ¶15.   (U) Cable drafted by AmConsul Sao Paulo.

    SOBEL

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