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### Viewing cable 04PANAMA353, PANAMA POLITICAL ANALYST ON MAY 2 ELECTION:

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
04PANAMA353 | 2004-02-13 22:21 | 2011-05-31 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Panama

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PANAMA 000353

    SIPDIS

    DEPT. FOR WHA/CEN/BRIGHAM

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2014
    TAGS: PGOV PINR PM POL CHIEF
    SUBJECT: PANAMA POLITICAL ANALYST ON MAY 2 ELECTION:
    BARRING MISHAP, MARTIN TORRIJOS WILL WIN

    REF: A. PANAMA 0040
         ¶B. 03 PANAMA 3294

    Classified By: DCM CHRISTOPHER MCMULLEN FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D).

    SUMMARY
    -------
    ¶1.  (C) Former Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) political
    operative turned independent consultant and analyst, Jose
    Isabel Blandon, told DCM and POL Counselor that the PRD's
    superior numbers and organization and a divided opposition
    probably will secure the presidency for Martin Torrijos on
    May 2.  Blandon predicted that many supporters of former
    president Guillermo Endara will fail to vote because they are
    disaffected from politics and because Endara's party,
    Solidaridad, lacks the electoral machine to get them to the
    polls.  Also, candidate Jose Miguel Aleman, with support from
    the Arnulfistas and MOLIRENA, will get far more votes than
    his current 8% in opinion polls suggest.  Besides an
    (improbable) misstep, Blandon said several things could
    derail Torrijos: further complications and bad publicity from
    the apparently corrupt activities of his cousin (and
    sidelined campaign chief) Hugo Torrijos, and internal party
    infighting.  According to Blandon, anti-corruption, Endara's
    strongest issue, resonates more with the press than with
    voters.  Blandon made no bones about his dislike for Endara,
    calling him "a danger to the country."  End Summary.

    Wary of Opinion Polls
    ---------------------

    ¶2.  (SBU) Blandon, who served Panama dictator Manuel Noriega
    as publicist and New York Consul General (See Bio Note, para
    9), now turned political consultant, recently discussed his
    view of the 2004 electoral campaign with DCM and POL
    Counselor.  Blandon presented a concise analysis of Panama's
    electoral dynamics to support his view that PRD presidential
    candidate Martin Torrijos will win the May 2 vote.  According
    to Blandon, Panama opinion polls have been notoriously
    inaccurate in past elections.  (The latest poll shows Martin
    Torrijos leading ex-president Guillermo Endara 42%-34% with
    Arnulfista candidate Jose Miguel Aleman in third place with
    8%.)  One fault is that polls focus too heavily on urban
    areas but do not concentrate on likely rural voters, Blandon
    pointed out.

    Party Loyalties Will Count
    --------------------------

    ¶3.  (SBU) Blandon predicted that 1.4 million (70%) of
    Panama's roughly 2 million voters will actually cast ballots
    on May 2.  Of those 1.4 million voters, around 1 million are
    registered party members.  (See Reftel.  Figures below were
    updated as of 12/31/2004.)  Party affiliation is strong in
    Panama, Blandon said, and party members tend to vote for the
    entire party slate.  That tendency is stronger in the
    countryside, where around 80% of the electorate will cast
    ballots.  Among the parties, PRD has the biggest membership
    base (435,000), the most effective electoral machine, and the
    most disciplined voters.  Endara's Solidarity party has
    relatively few members (73,000), most of whom joined in the
    past several months, the weakest electoral machine, and least
    committed supporters.  The Arnulfista-MOLIRENA-PLN coalition,
    Blandon continued, with over 300,000 members and over 2300
    candidates for national and local office, will doubtless
    produce much more than 8% of the vote for Jose Miguel Aleman.
     Those facts will count heavily in the countryside, when
    election day comes.  (Note: PLN is the National Liberal
    Party.)

    "The Anti-System Vote Will Not Vote"
    ------------------------------------

    ¶4.  (SBU) Blandon said the 1994 and 1999 elections have shown
    a fairly constant baseline for the three biggest parties.
    The PRD can count on 32% of the vote; the Arnulfistas 21%;
    MOLIRENA 10%.  Endara appeals above all to disaffected voters
    who take a cynical view of politics, Blandon continued.  "The
    anti-system (Endara) vote will not vote," he said, certainly
    not in as large numbers as party members; in short, a large
    percentage of Endara supporters are not likely voters.  Also
    Endara's support mostly is urban, where voter turnout is
    relatively low.  Blandon predicted the following election day
    results:

    Torrijos   37%
    Aleman     32%
    Endara     21%
    Martinelli  4%
    unaccounted 6%

    Anti-corruption a Declining Issue
    ---------------------------------

    ¶5.  (SBU) Another historical reality confronting the Endara
    campaign is that third-party candidates fall short in Panama.
     For instance, Alberto Vallarino, a highly placed Arnulfista
    who left the party to run for president in Panama's May 1999
    election under another banner finished with only 17% of the
    vote.  On the other hand, if Endara wins more than 25% of the
    vote, that could come at the expense of Aleman, Blandon said.
     The PRD has never captured more than 37% of the vote, he
    pointed out, and PRD ally Partido Popular is limited in what
    it can deliver for Torrijos.  Anti-corruption, Endara's
    principal attraction for voters due to his clean record, in
    the end will have less effect on cynical voters than the
    press reports, Blandon predicted.  Endara could get elected,
    Blandon conceded, if either Torrijos or Aleman make a major
    mistake.

    Torrijos Also Has Problems
    --------------------------

    ¶6.  (SBU) Predicting a tough campaign, Blandon hastened to
    add that victory for Torrijos is hardly assured.  Trying to
    counteract the PRD's "lack of legitimacy with the private
    sector," Torrijos chose successful businessman Samuel Lewis
    Navarro as his first vice presidential running mate.  Blandon
    pointed to several potential problems that could cost
    Torrijos the presidency.  The first is the PRD's alliance
    with the Partido Popular (PP), the former Christian
    Democratic Party, which may not survive the election.
    Whether the alliance will help or hurt Torrijos is unclear.
    (Comment: Many observers point out that the PRD-PP alliance
    is inherently awkward because the Christian Democrats were
    fierce opponents of Manuel Noriega, whom the PRD supported.)
    Recently PP legislator Teresita de Arias publicized the abuse
    of tax "exonerations" by legislators who import luxury cars
    duty free, an action that angered many PRDistas who were the
    worst culprits.

    Cousin Hugo Could Prove Toxic
    -----------------------------

    ¶7.  (C) But Torrijos faces still more potent internal
    dangers.  The first is his close relationship with first
    cousin Hugo Torrijos, a major source of finance for his
    campaign, who apparently is implicated in a corruption
    scandal dating from his late-1990's stewardship of Ports
    Engineering Consulting Corporation (PECC).  Martin has
    recently asked Hugo to step down as his campaign manager,
    Blandon noted, but can't really disentangle himself
    meaningfully from his involvement with Hugo.  Another problem
    for Torrijos are the 7 or 8 anti-Torrijos legislative
    candidates running in large constituencies (circuitos), such
    as Arraijan, Chorrera, David, and San Miguelito, where
    intense in-fighting could cost Torrijos votes.

    Endara Not Up To Challenge
    --------------------------

    ¶8.  (C) Blandon emphasized that Panama has serious challenges
    ahead of it in the coming years.  It must create a modern
    state structure, plan and finance Canal expansion, solve
    security issues on the Colombia border, and negotiate a Free
    Trade Agreement and "normalize" its relationship with the
    United States.  Endara is not up to the challenge, Blandon
    implied.  Calling him a "rudderless ship," Blandon claimed
    former president Endara is "a danger for the country," adding
    that Endara has no comprehension of how the 9/11/2001
    terrorist attacks have changed the world.  (Note: On this
    score, Blandon gave credit to President Moscoso for
    establishing a close relationship with President Bush that is
    highly valuable for Panama.  End Note.)

    Bio Note and Comment
    --------------------

    ¶9.  (C) Bright, wily (a generous term for some observers),
    well connected and highly paid for years under Noriega,
    Blandon served as Noriega's Minister of Culture and in
    several diplomatic posts.  An agronomist by training and an
    erstwhile leftist, Blandon leveraged his influence on his
    relationships with the Panama Defense Forces (PDF) and its
    leadership, making him one of the most powerful individuals
    in the government.  In the late 1980s Blandon authored "Plan
    Blandon," an abortive attempt to ease Noriega from power and
    avoid bloodshed.  Since Operation Just cause and Noriega's
    fall from power in 1989, Blandon has reinvented himself,
    pursuing a career as a political analyst, commentator, and
    consultant for hire.  (Blandon's clients include PRD First
    Vice Presidential Candidate Samuel Lewis Navarro, which
    accounts in part for his acerbic assessment of Endara,
    although the bad blood between them dates back to the late
    1980s when Endara and Blandon were on different sides of the
    military/civilian divide.)  He hosts a daily talk show on
    political affairs called Radio Noticias Bahia.

    WATT

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