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### Viewing cable 06BRASILIA888, BRAZILIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY SAYS "NO CRISIS YET"

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06BRASILIA888 | 2006-05-08 17:20 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Brasilia

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    VZCZCXRO7377
    RR RUEHAO RUEHCD RUEHGA RUEHGD RUEHHA RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL
    RUEHQU RUEHRD RUEHRG RUEHRS RUEHTM RUEHVC
    DE RUEHBR #0888/01 1281720
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    R 081720Z MAY 06
    FM AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
    TO RUEHC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC
    RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5312
    INFO RUEHWH/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS
    RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 4719
    RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 2014
    RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO 6892
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
    RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHDC
    RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC

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    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRASILIA 000888

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/08/2016
    TAGS: PREL EINV EPET XM BR
    SUBJECT: BRAZILIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY SAYS "NO CRISIS YET"
    WITH BOLIVIA, BUT TWO POTENTIAL FLASHPOINTS ARE BREWING

    REF: BRASILIA 882

    BRASILIA 00000888  001.2 OF 002

    Classified By: PolCouns Dennis Hearne, 1.4 (B) & (D)

    ¶1.  (C) Summary:  Bolivia agreed not to interrupt gas
    supplies to Brazil, and Brazil agreed to continue investing
    in Bolivia's hydrocarbon industry at the May 4 meeting in
    Puerto Iguazu, Argentina, according to the Brazilian Foreign
    Ministry's Bolivia Desk Officer.  This understanding has
    deterred an immediate crisis, he said.  However, two
    potential crises loom on the horizon:  1) Bolivia may impose
    a unilateral price increase (such an intention has been
    reported in the press, but so far there has been no official
    notification) and 2) Bolivia could repossess some or all of
    the farms currently operated by 15,000 Brazilians who moved
    into the Santa Cruz region over the past twenty years.
    Brazil hopes that a meeting between Petrobras and Bolivian
    officials later this week may move the issue back to the
    technical arena, reducing its political volatility.  End
    Summary.

    ¶2.  (C) Foreign Ministry Bolivian Desk Officer Lauro de
    Castro Beltrao Filho told poloff May 8 that the two private
    commitments made at the May 4 Puerto Iguazu, Argentina
    meeting justified President Lula da Silva's characterization
    of the situation between Brazil and Bolivia as "not a
    crisis."  At the Puerto Iguazu meeting, Bolivian President
    Morales promised that he would not interrupt gas supplies to
    Brazil, and President Lula promised that Brazil would
    continue to invest in Bolivia.  However, Beltrao, cautioned,
    the commitment on investment is not airtight.  Petrobras, as
    a publicly traded company with thousands of private
    investors, will be the one to ultimately decide on investment
    issues consistent with future conditions.  He added that,
    while there is no ongoing crisis, the situation remains
    serious and could develop into a crisis in the near future.

    --------------------------------------------- --------
    Gas Prices, Agricultural Reform, Could Provoke Crisis
    --------------------------------------------- --------

    ¶3.  (C) Bolivia could foment a crisis in one of two ways.
    First, it could unilaterally impose a gas price increase.
    Beltrao noted that La Paz had already publicly indicated an
    intention to raise prices by 61 percent, but the Brazil side
    had received nothing official from Bolivia in that regard.
    Since, according to the contract Petrobras has with Bolivia,
    the price of gas is to be decided by mutual agreement between
    both sides, a unilateral price increase would constitute a
    breach of contract.  (He noted that an adjustment mechanism
    is built into the contract to allow prices to fluctuate
    yearly based on a market basket of goods, and that every five
    years or so, the two sides will engage in a more
    comprehensive renegotiation of the price.)  Beltrao pointed
    out that regional gas prices had been gradually rising so
    Bolivia might be justified in requesting a price increase.
    However, it would have to obtain agreement from Petrobras
    before implementing an increase.

    ¶4.  (C) A separate, but related, issue is the status of some
    15,000 Brazilians who moved into the Santa Cruz area of
    Bolivia over the past twenty years and who are currently
    growing soybeans on farms in the region.  Most moved from
    neighboring regions in Brazil, attracted by soil that is
    richer and land prices that are cheaper than those found on
    the Brazilian side of the border.  Beltrao noted that on the
    same day as the gas nationalization was announced, the
    Morales government also indicated its intention to carry our
    agricultural reforms that could affect those Brazilian
    farmers.  Any action taken that would threaten the rights of
    those farmers would occasion a public outcry in Brazil,
    probably worse than that caused by the spectacle of Bolivian
    soldiers occupying Petrobras facilities.  Beltrao noted that
    Brazilians had been particularly shocked by that display, and
    he attributed much of the popular criticism of President
    Lula's response to the outrage over those images.

    ---------------------------------------------
    Hoping to Move Focus Back to Technical Issues
    ---------------------------------------------

    ¶5.  (C) According to Beltrao, there will be a new round of
    talks over nationalization in Bolivia this week.  He said

    BRASILIA 00000888  002.2 OF 002

    Petrobras will conduct the talks, most likely without
    government participation, as Brazil would like to return the
    issue to the technical arena, thereby turning down the
    political temperature.  He said he was unaware whether
    Bolivian Government officials would join YPFB at the meeting.

    ¶6.  (C) Comment:  Whether or not the Foreign Ministry is
    prepared to acknowledge a current "crisis" between Bolivia
    and Brazil, there clearly appears to be a crisis of
    confidence in Lula's foreign policy team.  Press criticism of
    the Lula adminstration continued over the weekend, with the
    largest newsmagazine pillorying President Lula's chief
    foreign policy advisors for their handling of the Bolivian
    episode, and several other international setbacks, labeling
    them at one point, "Sheep in Sheep's Clothing."

    Chicola

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