Cable Viewer

Currently released so far... 19461 / 251,287

### Articles

Brazil Sri Lanka United Kingdom Sweden 00. Editorial United States Latin America Egypt Jordan Yemen Thailand

### Browse latest releases

2010/11 2010/12 2011/01 2011/02 2011/03 2011/04 2011/05 2011/06 2011/07
2010/11/28 2010/11/29 2010/11/30
2010/12/01 2010/12/02 2010/12/03 2010/12/04 2010/12/05 2010/12/06 2010/12/07 2010/12/08 2010/12/09 2010/12/10 2010/12/11 2010/12/12 2010/12/13 2010/12/14 2010/12/15 2010/12/16 2010/12/17 2010/12/18 2010/12/19 2010/12/20 2010/12/21 2010/12/22 2010/12/23 2010/12/24 2010/12/25 2010/12/26 2010/12/27 2010/12/28 2010/12/29 2010/12/30
2011/01/01 2011/01/02 2011/01/04 2011/01/05 2011/01/07 2011/01/09 2011/01/11 2011/01/12 2011/01/13 2011/01/14 2011/01/15 2011/01/16 2011/01/17 2011/01/18 2011/01/19 2011/01/20 2011/01/21 2011/01/22 2011/01/23 2011/01/24 2011/01/25 2011/01/26 2011/01/27 2011/01/28 2011/01/29 2011/01/30 2011/01/31
2011/02/01 2011/02/02 2011/02/03 2011/02/04 2011/02/05 2011/02/06 2011/02/07 2011/02/08 2011/02/09 2011/02/10 2011/02/11 2011/02/12 2011/02/13 2011/02/14 2011/02/15 2011/02/16 2011/02/17 2011/02/18 2011/02/19 2011/02/20 2011/02/21 2011/02/22 2011/02/23 2011/02/24 2011/02/25 2011/02/26 2011/02/27 2011/02/28
2011/03/01 2011/03/02 2011/03/03 2011/03/04 2011/03/05 2011/03/06 2011/03/07 2011/03/08 2011/03/09 2011/03/10 2011/03/11 2011/03/13 2011/03/14 2011/03/15 2011/03/16 2011/03/17 2011/03/18 2011/03/19 2011/03/20 2011/03/21 2011/03/22 2011/03/23 2011/03/24 2011/03/25 2011/03/26 2011/03/27 2011/03/28 2011/03/29 2011/03/30 2011/03/31
2011/04/01 2011/04/02 2011/04/03 2011/04/04 2011/04/05 2011/04/06 2011/04/07 2011/04/08 2011/04/09 2011/04/10 2011/04/11 2011/04/12 2011/04/13 2011/04/14 2011/04/15 2011/04/16 2011/04/17 2011/04/18 2011/04/19 2011/04/20 2011/04/21 2011/04/22 2011/04/23 2011/04/24 2011/04/25 2011/04/26 2011/04/27 2011/04/28 2011/04/29 2011/04/30
2011/05/01 2011/05/02 2011/05/03 2011/05/04 2011/05/05 2011/05/06 2011/05/07 2011/05/08 2011/05/09 2011/05/10 2011/05/11 2011/05/12 2011/05/13 2011/05/14 2011/05/15 2011/05/16 2011/05/17 2011/05/18 2011/05/19 2011/05/20 2011/05/21 2011/05/22 2011/05/23 2011/05/24 2011/05/25 2011/05/26 2011/05/27 2011/05/28 2011/05/29 2011/05/30 2011/05/31
2011/06/01 2011/06/02 2011/06/03 2011/06/04 2011/06/05 2011/06/06 2011/06/07 2011/06/08 2011/06/09 2011/06/10 2011/06/11 2011/06/12 2011/06/13 2011/06/14 2011/06/15 2011/06/16 2011/06/17 2011/06/18 2011/06/19 2011/06/20 2011/06/21 2011/06/22 2011/06/23 2011/06/24 2011/06/25 2011/06/26 2011/06/27 2011/06/28 2011/06/29 2011/06/30
2011/07/01 2011/07/02 2011/07/04 2011/07/05 2011/07/06 2011/07/07 2011/07/08 2011/07/10 2011/07/11 2011/07/12 2011/07/13 2011/07/14 2011/07/15 2011/07/16 2011/07/17 2011/07/18 2011/07/19 2011/07/20 2011/07/21 2011/07/22

### Browse by creation date

66 72 73 75 79 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
1966/12
1972/02 1972/08
1973/04
1975/03
1979/08
1985/03 1985/05 1985/06
1986/05 1986/08 1986/12
1987/06
1988/01 1988/03 1988/04 1988/07 1988/08 1988/12
1989/12
1990/01 1990/07 1990/08 1990/10
1991/05 1991/07 1991/11
1992/01 1992/03 1992/06 1992/09 1992/12
1993/01 1993/02 1993/10
1994/11 1994/12
1995/01 1995/04 1995/06 1995/11
1996/07 1996/09 1996/11
1997/02 1997/03 1997/05 1997/06 1997/08 1997/10 1997/12
1998/05 1998/12
1999/01 1999/09
2000/05 2000/06 2000/09 2000/11
2001/02 2001/03 2001/04 2001/05 2001/06 2001/07 2001/09 2001/10 2001/11 2001/12
2002/01 2002/02 2002/03 2002/04 2002/06 2002/07 2002/08 2002/09 2002/11 2002/12
2003/01 2003/02 2003/03 2003/04 2003/05 2003/06 2003/07 2003/08 2003/09 2003/10 2003/11 2003/12
2004/01 2004/02 2004/03 2004/04 2004/05 2004/06 2004/07 2004/08 2004/09 2004/10 2004/11 2004/12
2005/01 2005/02 2005/03 2005/04 2005/05 2005/06 2005/07 2005/08 2005/09 2005/10 2005/11 2005/12
2006/01 2006/02 2006/03 2006/04 2006/05 2006/06 2006/07 2006/08 2006/09 2006/10 2006/11 2006/12
2007/01 2007/02 2007/03 2007/04 2007/05 2007/06 2007/07 2007/08 2007/09 2007/10 2007/11 2007/12
2008/01 2008/02 2008/03 2008/04 2008/05 2008/06 2008/07 2008/08 2008/09 2008/10 2008/11 2008/12
2009/01 2009/02 2009/03 2009/04 2009/05 2009/06 2009/07 2009/08 2009/09 2009/10 2009/11 2009/12
2010/01 2010/02

### Browse by origin

A B C D F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W Y Z
Embassy Athens Embassy Asuncion Embassy Astana Embassy Asmara Embassy Ashgabat Embassy Apia Embassy Ankara Embassy Amman Embassy Algiers Embassy Addis Ababa Embassy Accra Embassy Abuja Embassy Abu Dhabi Embassy Abidjan Consulate Auckland Consulate Amsterdam Consulate Adana American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura Embassy Buenos Aires Embassy Budapest Embassy Bucharest Embassy Brussels Embassy Bridgetown Embassy Bratislava Embassy Brasilia Embassy Bogota Embassy Bishkek Embassy Bern Embassy Berlin Embassy Belmopan Embassy Belgrade Embassy Beirut Embassy Beijing Embassy Banjul Embassy Bangkok Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan Embassy Bamako Embassy Baku Embassy Baghdad Consulate Belfast Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen Embassy Conakry Embassy Colombo Embassy Chisinau Embassy Caracas Embassy Canberra Embassy Cairo Consulate Curacao Consulate Ciudad Juarez Consulate Chiang Mai Consulate Chennai Consulate Casablanca Consulate Cape Town Consulate Calgary
Embassy Dushanbe Embassy Dublin Embassy Doha Embassy Djibouti Embassy Dili Embassy Dhaka Embassy Dar Es Salaam Embassy Damascus Embassy Dakar Consulate Dubai Consulate Dhahran
Embassy Freetown Consulate Fukuoka
Embassy Guatemala Embassy Gaborone Consulate Guayaquil Consulate Guangzhou Consulate Guadalajara
Embassy Helsinki Embassy Harare Embassy Hanoi Consulate Hong Kong Consulate Ho Chi Minh City Consulate Hermosillo Consulate Hamilton Consulate Hamburg Consulate Halifax
Iran RPO Dubai Embassy Islamabad Consulate Istanbul
Embassy Jakarta Consulate Jerusalem Consulate Jeddah
Embassy Kyiv Embassy Kuwait Embassy Kuala Lumpur Embassy Kinshasa Embassy Kingston Embassy Kigali Embassy Khartoum Embassy Kathmandu Embassy Kampala Embassy Kabul Consulate Kolkata Consulate Karachi
Embassy Luxembourg Embassy Luanda Embassy London Embassy Ljubljana Embassy Lisbon Embassy Lima Embassy Lilongwe Embassy Libreville Embassy La Paz Consulate Lahore Consulate Lagos
Mission USOSCE Mission USNATO Mission UNESCO Mission Geneva Embassy Muscat Embassy Moscow Embassy Montevideo Embassy Monrovia Embassy Minsk Embassy Mexico Embassy Mbabane Embassy Maputo Embassy Manila Embassy Manama Embassy Managua Embassy Malabo Embassy Madrid Consulate Munich Consulate Mumbai Consulate Montreal Consulate Monterrey Consulate Milan Consulate Melbourne Consulate Matamoros
Embassy Nicosia Embassy Niamey Embassy New Delhi Embassy Ndjamena Embassy Nassau Embassy Nairobi Consulate Nuevo Laredo Consulate Naples Consulate Naha Consulate Nagoya
Embassy Ouagadougou Embassy Ottawa Embassy Oslo
Embassy Pristina Embassy Pretoria Embassy Prague Embassy Port Of Spain Embassy Port Louis Embassy Port Au Prince Embassy Phnom Penh Embassy Paris Embassy Paramaribo Embassy Panama Consulate Peshawar
Embassy Quito Consulate Quebec
REO Basrah Embassy Rome Embassy Riyadh Embassy Riga Embassy Reykjavik Embassy Rangoon Embassy Rabat Consulate Rio De Janeiro Consulate Recife
Secretary of State Embassy Suva Embassy Stockholm Embassy Sofia Embassy Skopje Embassy Singapore Embassy Seoul Embassy Sarajevo Embassy Santo Domingo Embassy Santiago Embassy Sanaa Embassy San Salvador Embassy San Jose Consulate Strasbourg Consulate St Petersburg Consulate Shenyang Consulate Shanghai Consulate Sapporo Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis Embassy Tripoli Embassy Tokyo Embassy The Hague Embassy Tel Aviv Embassy Tehran Embassy Tegucigalpa Embassy Tbilisi Embassy Tashkent Embassy Tallinn Consulate Toronto Consulate Tijuana Consulate Thessaloniki
USUN New York USEU Brussels US Office Almaty US Mission Geneva US Interests Section Havana US Delegation, Secretary UNVIE UN Rome Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Embassy Vilnius Embassy Vientiane Embassy Vienna Embassy Vatican Embassy Valletta Consulate Vladivostok Consulate Vancouver
Embassy Windhoek Embassy Wellington Embassy Warsaw
Embassy Yerevan Embassy Yaounde
Embassy Zagreb

### Browse by tag

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
ASEC AEMR AMGT AR APECO AU AORC AJ AF AFIN AS AM ABLD AFFAIRS AMB APER AA AG AE ATRN ADM ALOW ACOA AID AND ABUD ARF AY AMED ASPA AL APEC ADPM ADANA AFSI ARABL ADCO ANARCHISTS AZ ANET AMEDCASCKFLO AADP AO AGRICULTURE AGAO ASEAN APRC AFSN AFSA AORG ACABQ AINF AINR AODE APCS AROC ARCH ADB AX AMEX ASUP ARM AQ ATFN AMBASSADOR ARAS ACBAQ AC AOPR AREP ASIG ASEX AER AVERY ASCH AFU AMG ATPDEA ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG AORL AN AIT AGMT ACS AGR AMCHAMS AECL AUC AFGHANISTAN ACAO
BR BB BG BEXP BY BA BRUSSELS BU BD BK BL BM BE BO BTIO BH BAIO BRPA BUSH BILAT BF BX BC BOL BMGT BIDEN BP BBG BBSR BT BWC BEXPC BN BTIU
CPAS CA CASC CS CBW CIDA CO CODEL CI CROS CU CH CWC CMGT CVIS CDG CG CF CHIEF CJAN CBSA CE CY CB CW CM CDC CONS CHR CD CT CR CAMBODIA CN COUNTRY CONDOLEEZZA CZ CARICOM COM CICTE CYPRUS CBE CACS COE CIVS CAPC CFED CTR COUNTER CARSON COPUOS CV CITES CKGR CVR CLINTON COUNTERTERRORISM CITEL CLEARANCE CSW CIC CITT CARIB CAFTA CACM CDB CJUS CTM CAN CAJC CONSULAR CLMT CBC CIA CNARC CIS CEUDA CHINA CAC CL
DR DJ DB DHS DAO DCM DO DEFENSE DA DE DK DOMESTIC DISENGAGEMENT DOD DOT DPRK DEPT DEA DOE DTRA DS DEAX
ECON ETTC EFIS ETRD EC EMIN EAGR EAID EU EFIN EUN ECIN EG EWWT EINV ENRG ELAB EPET EN EAIR EUMEM ECPS ELTN EIND EZ EI ER ET EINT ECONOMIC ENIV EFTA ES ECONOMY ENV EAG ENGR EET ELECTIONS ESTH ETRO EPEC ECIP EXIM ENERG EREL EK EDEV ERNG EPA ENGY ETRAD ELTNSNAR ETRC EUREM EEB EETC ENVI EXTERNAL ELN ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS EAIDS ECOSOC EDU EPREL EINVEFIN ECA EIDN EFINECONCS EINVKSCA ETC ENVR EAP EINN EXBS ECONOMICS EIAR EINDETRD ECONEFIN EURN ETRDEINVTINTCS EFIM EINVETC ECONCS EDRC ENRD EBRD ETRA ESA EAIG EUR EUC ERD ETRN EINVECONSENVCSJA EEPET EUNCH ESENV ENNP ECINECONCS ETRDECONWTOCS ECUN
FI FR FOREIGN FTAA FARC FREEDOM FAS FAO FBI FINANCE FCS FAA FJ FTA FK FT FAC FINR FDA FM FOR FOI FO FMLN FISO
GM GERARD GT GA GG GR GTIP GE GY GH GLOBAL GB GEORGE GCC GV GC GAZA GL GOV GOI GF GANGS GTMO GAERC GZ GUILLERMO GASPAR
HR HA HYMPSK HO HK HUMAN HN HUD HU HURI HILLARY HI HUM HSTC HEBRON HUMOR
IZ IN IAEA IS IMO ILO IR IC IT ITU IV IMF IBRD IWC IPR IRAQI IDB ISRAELI ITALY IADB ITPGOV ITALIAN ID ICAO ICRC INR IFAD ICJ IO IRAQ INL INMARSAT INRA INTERNAL INTELSAT INDO ILC IRS IIP IQ ITRA IEFIN ICTY ISCON IAHRC IA INTERPOL IEA INRB ISRAEL IZPREL IRAJ IF ITPHUM IL IACI IDA ISLAMISTS IGAD ITF INRO IBET IDP ICTR IRC
JA JO JM JP JOHN JUS JAMES JOSEPH JOHNNIE JML JIMENEZ
KOMC KNNP KFLO KDEM KSUM KIPR KFLU KPAO KE KCRM KJUS KAWC KZ KSCA KDRG KCOR KGHG KPAL KTIP KMCA KCRS KPKO KOLY KRVC KVPR KG KWBG KMDR KTER KSPR KV KTFN KWMN KFRD KSTH KS KN KISL KGIC KSEP KFIN KTEX KTIA KUNR KCMR KMOC KCIP KTDB KBIO KU KSAF KHIV KSTC KIRF KIRC KMPI KIDE KSEO KSCS KNUC KNNNP KCFE KGLB KICC KIVP KTDD KPWR KNUP KO KHLS KR KCOM KESS KCSY KWN KRFD KREC KBCT KICCPUR KGIT KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KOCI KREL KMCC KPRP KVIR KPRV KPAOPREL KAUST KAID KIRP KLAB KCRIM KPAONZ KCRCM KHSA KNAR KHDP KICA KGHA KTRD KTAO KPAOY KINR KFSC KJUST KWAC KNPP KNDP KSCI KMRS KTBT KENV KNNPMNUC KAWK KHUM KACT KBTS KERG KVRP KMFO KTLA KPIR KX KPOA KRCM KCFC KNEI KCHG KPLS KFTFN KTFM KLIG KDEMAF KRAD KBTR KGCC KSEC KPIN KDEV KWWMN KOM KWNM KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KRGY KIFR KSAC KWMNCS KPAK KOMS KFPC KRIM KDDG KCGC KPAI KID KMIG KNSD KWMM
LY LE LABOR LO LH LAB LI LTTE LU LA LVPR LG LT LOG
MARR MX MASS MOPS MNUC MCAP MTCRE MRCRE MTRE MASC MY MK MO MCC MCA MAS MZ MIL MU ML MTCR MEPP MG MI MINUSTAH MA MP MD MAPP MAR MR MOPPS MTS MLS MILI MEPN MEPI MEETINGS MERCOSUR MW MT MIK MN MAPS MV MILITARY MARAD MDC MACEDONIA MASSMNUC MUCN MEDIA MQADHAFI MPOS MPS MC
NZ NI NATO NO NU NG NL NPT NS NSF NA NP NATIONAL NASA NC NDP NIH NIPP NSSP NK NEGROPONTE NE NAS NATOIRAQ NGO NAR NR NZUS NARC NH NSG NAFTA NEW NRR NT NOVO NATOPREL NEA NSC NV NPA NSFO NW NORAD NPG NOAA
OTRA OECD OVIP OREP OPRC ODC OIIP OPDC OAS OSCE OPIC OMS OEXC OPCW OSCI OIE OPAD ODIP OM OFDP OEXP OFFICIALS OPEC OVIPPRELUNGANU ODPC OSHA OHUM OSIC OTR OMIG OSAC OBSP OFDA OVP ON OCII OES OCS OIC
PGOV PREL PARM PINR PHUM PM PREF PTER PK PINS PBIO PHSA PE PBTS PL POL PAK POV POLITICS POLICY PA PNAT PCI PAS PALESTINIAN PPA PO PH PRELBR PERM PETR PROP PJUS PREZ PAO POLITICAL PRELPK PAIGH PROG PMAR PU PG PDOV PGOVSOCI PTE PY PGOF PMIL PGOR PBTSRU PRAM PSI PERL PARMS PTERE PREO PINO PRGOV PORG PP PS PKFK PSOE PEPR PDEM PINT PRELP PREFA PNG PTBS PFOR PUNE PGOVLO PHUMBA POLINT PGOVE PHALANAGE PARTY PECON PLN PHUH PEDRO PF PHUS PETER PARTIES PCUL PGGV PSA PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA PGIV PHUMPREL POGOV PEL PINL PBT PINF PRL PSEPC POSTS PAHO PHUMPGOV PGOC PNR PROV
QA
RS RP RU RW RFE RCMP RIGHTSPOLMIL RO ROBERT RM RICE REGION ROOD RELAM RSP RF RELATIONS RIGHTS RUPREL REMON RPEL REACTION REPORT RSO
SZ SENV SOCI SNAR SY SO SP SU SI SMIG SYR SA SCUL SW SR SYRIA SNARM SPECIALIST SG SENS SF SENVQGR SEN SENVEAGREAIDTBIOECONSOCIXR SN SC SNA SK SL SMIL SCRM SENVSXE SAARC SNARIZ STEINBERG SWE SCRS SARS SAN ST SIPDIS SSA SPCVIS SOFA SENVKGHG SANC SHI SEVN SHUM SH SNARCS SPCE SNARN SIPRS
TRGY TBIO TSPA TU TPHY TI TX TH TIP TSPL TNGD TS TW TRSY TZ TP TN TINT TC TR TIO TF TK TRAD TT TD TWI TERRORISM TL TV TO TURKEY TSPAM TREL TRT TFIN TAGS THPY TBID
UK UNSC UNGA UN US UZ USEU UG UP UNAUS UNMIK USTR UY UNRCR UNESCO UNHRC UNICEF USPS UNSCR UNFICYP UNCSD UNEP USAID USOAS UNDP UV UNTAC USDA UNMIC USUN UNCHR UNCTAD UR USGS UNHCR USNC UA UE UNVIE UAE UNO UNODC UNCHS UNDESCO UNC UNPUOS UNDC UNCHC UNFCYP UNIDROIT UNCND
VE VM VT VZ VEPREL VN VTEG VTIZ VTPREL VISIT VENZ VAT VC VI
WHTI WIPO WTRO WTO WHO WFP WS WA WZ WI WMD WBG WWARD WHA WITH WTRQ WEU WMO WB
XA XW XX XK XL XM XS XF XY XR XG XT XC XH XD XE XV XB XU XZ XQ XI XTAG
YI YM YE YL YMCS
ZU ZI ZOELLICK ZP ZR ZO ZK ZF ZL ZB ZN ZH ZT ZJ ZEALAND ZA ZANU

### Browse by classification

CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN SECRET SECRET//NOFORN UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

### Community resources

Follow us on Twitter Check our Reddit Twitter this Digg this page Contact us on IRC

courage is contagious

### Viewing cable 04BRASILIA1512, ECONOMIC GROWTH RETURNS; PROBLEMS REMAIN

If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:

- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.

To understand the justification used for the classification of each cable, please use this WikiSource article as reference.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #04BRASILIA1512.

Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
04BRASILIA1512 | 2004-06-18 19:05 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Brasilia

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

    181905Z Jun 04

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BRASILIA 001512

    SIPDIS

    STATE FOR EB/IFD/OMA - O'REILLY
    NSC FOR DEMPSEY, CRUZ
    TREASURY FOR OASIA - DAS LEE AND SSEGAL
    STATE PLS PASS TO FED BOARD OF GOVERNORS FOR ROBATAILLE
    USDA FOR U/S PENN, FAS/FAA/TERPSTRA
    USDOC FOR 3134/USFCS/OIO/EOLSON/DDEVITO
    USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC/DMCDOUGALL/ADRISCOLL
    USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC/JANDERSON/WBASTIAN
    SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD

    SENSITIVE

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ECON EFIN PGOV PREL EINV BR
    SUBJECT:  ECONOMIC GROWTH RETURNS; PROBLEMS REMAIN

    REFS: A) Brasilia 463   B) Brasilia 1275

    This cable is Sensitive But Unclassified, please protect
    accordingly.

    ¶1.   (SBU) Summary:  Latest official figures show the
    Brazilian economy grew a solid 1.6% in the first quarter of
    2004, the second consecutive quarter of growth at an annual
    rate of over 6%.  This still-preliminary growth data has
    been recently reinforced by, among other positive data
    points, news that industrial production in the first four
    months of 2004 climbed 6.1% above the first four months of
    ¶2003.  Pundits have responded with alacrity to these hints
    of the real economy's recovery from Brazil's 2002/2003
    financial storm, with a cover story in newsweekly `Veja'
    proclaiming Finance Minister Palocci now Lula's most popular
    minister and the man who "wins them all."  Ideally, this
    favorable turn of fortunes should give the GoB much-needed
    political room to pursue its broader economic-reform agenda.
    The June 17 Senate defeat of Lula's minimum-wage bill,
    however, illustrates how coalition and perhaps government
    infighting are keeping the GoB on the policy defensive
    against the background of the looming October municipal
    elections.  The prospect of long-term sustained economic
    growth seems little closer.  End summary.

    ¶2.   (U) GoB end-May figures show the Brazilian economy grew
    1.6% in the first quarter of 2004, as compared to the fourth
    quarter of 2003.  The numbers are consistent with a trend of
    strong growth (over 6% annualized) beginning in the fourth
    quarter of 2003.  Agriculture continued as the leading
    growth sector on the supply side, registering a 3.3%
    increase, while industry grew 1.7% and services rose by a
    much more measured 0.4%.  On the demand side, the continued
    export boom and the third consecutive quarterly increase in
    investment combined to lead growth.  Private consumption,
    while up 0.3%, increased far less than the 1.5% of the
    previous quarter.  Overall growth is the strongest since
    2000, but, unlike then, Brazil in 2004 is racking up record
    exports and a current-account surplus.

                            Brazilian GDP
                Percent Growth - Seasonally Adjusted

                     Annual/1       Quarterly Growth/2
                   2002   2003    2Q03   3Q03    4Q03   1Q04

    Total GDP      1.9    -0.2    -0.9    0.5     1.5    1.6

    Supply Side
     - Agriculture 5.5     5.0     1.0   -4.6     5.6    3.3
     - Industry    2.6    -1.0    -3.7    3.0     1.8    1.7
     - Services    1.6    -0.1    -0.1    0.2     0.8    0.4

    Demand Side
     - Consumption
       (Private)  -0.4    -3.3    -1.2    0.5     1.5    0.3
     - Govt.       1.4     0.6     0.3    0.0     0.2    0.8
     - Investment -4.2    -6.6    -7.1    3.2     4.0    2.3
     - Exports     7.9    14.2     6.2    0.8     5.7    5.6
     - Imports   -12.3    -1.9    -1.9    0.7     8.2    4.0
         /1 Percent Change on Previous Year
         /2 Percent Change on Previous Quarter
         Source: Statistics and Geographic Institute (IBGE)

    ¶3.   (U) A host of other recent data points seem to
    underline the trend of economic recovery.  April retail
    sales were up 9.9% over April 2003.  Industrial production
    was up 6.1% in the first four months of 2004 compared to the
    same period of 2003.  Complete industrial production data
    for May is not yet available, but production of paper
    packaging materials, a barometer for broader industrial
    activity, was up 15.7% in May 2004 over May 2003.  Vehicle
    production rose 7.6% in the same period.  A Getulio Vargas
    Foundation (FGV) survey of manufacturing enterprises found
    capacity utilization in several sectors (textiles,
    detergents, paper, rubber, metals) at 90% or greater; an
    increasing number of business reported investment plans to
    increase capacity.  Consistent with that survey, the value
    of financing requests with BNDES, the national development
    bank, almost tripled in Jan-May 2004 compared to Jan-May
    ¶2003.

    ¶4.   (U) The dark linings behind this silver cloud are the
    weak growth of private consumption in the first quarter,
    plus the slow rate of growth of investment.  Exacerbating
    these factors, the Central Bank's monetary policy committee
    voted June 16 to keep interest rates unchanged at 16%, in
    the wake of recent inflation data and increasing
    inflationary expectations in the market.  There is growing
    belief that interest rates are unlikely to be cut further in
    the near future.  Also, some doubts have been raised about
    the accuracy of the quarterly growth statistics, as they are
    based on a new industrial production index that some
    commentators allege was not fully calibrated before being
    pressed into use.

    ¶5.   (U) The latest growth data nevertheless has given the
    GOB some welcome relief from the almost constant criticism
    of the recent past.  In particular, Palocci's apparent trip
    from the public-opinion doghouse to the cover of leading
    national weekly news magazine Veja, under the headline
    "Palocci Wins Them All," has been striking.  Suddenly, PT
    leader Genoino is declaring that Palocci will be used as a
    prime asset on the campaign trail to stump for PT party
    candidates in October's municipal elections.  Demands for a
    major overhaul of economic policy, which were becoming ever
    more widespread within Lula's own coalition base, have for
    now faded.

    ¶6. (SBU) Ideally, these apparent buds of economic recovery
    should create a positive atmosphere for the Lula
    administration to work with the Congress on its broader
    structural and microeconomic reform agenda -- a necessity
    for sustained and strengthened growth.  But in real life,
    the GoB remains as much as ever on the policy defensive,
    hobbled by persistent lack of party discipline, both within
    and without the PT, and by the ramshackle nature of Lula's
    political coalition and the GoB's scandal-diminished
    political stature (ref B).  Most recently, on June 17 Lula's
    bill to increase the minimum wage to no more than Reals 260
    was voted down in the Senate, despite the administration's
    having pulled out all the stops to gain passage (septel).
    And elsewhere on the fiscal front: the Supreme Court may
    soon rule against the constitutionality of taxing
    pensioners, a crucial piece of last year's public-sector
    pension reform.

    COMMENT
    -------

    ¶7. (SBU) With the exception of export growth, there is no
    clear sign yet that the recovery of the last two quarters is
    much more than a still modest, natural bounce-back after the
    extreme recessionary fallout from the 2002 financial crisis.
    Without its continued export and agricultural success,
    Brazil's overall economy would still be struggling by any
    standard.  Spreading and sustaining growth in the longer
    term depends on microeconomic and structural reform measures
    to increase efficiency and bring investment.  The realities
    of coalition politics in this municipal election year,
    however, look set to delay most of this agenda.  Many
    independent analysts look for growth to attenuate as the
    cyclical recovery plays out.

    HRINAK

`