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### Viewing cable 05PANAMA1947, PANAMA EVANGELICALS SEEKING POLITICAL POWER

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05PANAMA1947 | 2005-09-23 22:55 | 2011-05-29 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Panama

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PANAMA 001947

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN
    SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV PREL PM LABOR HUMAN RIGHTSPOLMIL
    SUBJECT: PANAMA EVANGELICALS SEEKING POLITICAL POWER

    REF: PANAMA 01591

    SUMMARY
    --------

    ¶1.  (SBU)  Two Panamanian Evangelical ministers plan to form
    a political party (Partido Teologia) in 2007 with the goal of
    electing a president and legislators in 2009.  If nerve and
    energy were the only prerequisites for political success,
    these admitted political novices would surely win some
    elections.  Spouting a pro-business and pro-American
    philosophy, they presented their plan with enthusiasm and
    eloquence in a recent meeting with PolOff.  Some 10-15% of
    Panamanians are Evangelicals, but a similar effort to form a
    Panamanian Evangelical Party in 1994 failed due to a lack of
    funding.  The two ministers hope to harness the potential
    strength of this large group of voters but reject forming
    alliances with existing political parties.  Instead, they
    seek a new approach to solve their country's poverty,
    narcotrafficking, and political corruption.  Although they
    are inexperienced and somewhat naive, they could surprise and
    become effective politicians if they prove good at
    fundraising, a vital part of creating a new political party.
    End summary.

    Part time Ministers but fully committed
    ---------------------------------------
    ¶2.  (SBU)  Panamanian ministers Rafael Dyer Frank and Evans
    Ellis are the driving force in a plan to organize an
    Evangelical political party in Panama.  Ellis works full-time
    for the Panama Canal Authority in information technology and
    part time for the Hosana Church.  Dyer describes himself as a
    part-time business consultant who also works for the Church
    of the Miracles of Jesus Christ.  Both Frank and Ellis are
    Afro-Panamanians from the once-prosperous city of Colon.  At
    this time the party has 150 organizers, mostly church
    leaders.  Frank and Ellis claim a Panamanian economist
    recently joined their ranks to provide advice to their new
    political entity.

    ¶3.  (SBU)  Note:  Colon prospered from the 1940s to 1970s
    because of a large U.S. military presence that created many
    relatively high-paying civil service jobs as well as
    opportunities to work for American families as cooks,
    drivers, maids, and gardeners.  Colon began a rapid decline
    in the late 1970s when a series of events -- U.S. military
    base closings, closure of the Panama-Colon railroad, and the
    decline of the oil refining industry -- helped tip the city
    into a depression from which it has never recovered (see
    REFTEL).  Afro-Panamanians make up 14% of Panama's population
    and are subject to racial discrimination and prejudice.  Some
    among Panama's elite blame the United States for bringing
    West Indians to Panama to work during the construction of the
    Canal and also blame the U.S. because those workers chose to
    remain in Panama once the Canal construction was completed.
    The descendants of the builders of the most important
    economic asset in Panama are blamed for creating many of the
    existing social problems in Panama.  End note.)

    Evangelicals in Social Distress
    -------------------------------
    ¶4.  (SBU)  What motivates Frank is the social injustice and
    suffering that he sees on every hand.  Frank estimates 50% of
    the Evangelicals in Panama are unemployed and told PolOff
    many have taken to drug dealing to earn a living.  Frank
    cites unemployment (currently at 12.8%) in Panama as the
    cause of delinquency and crime.  He told PolOff about a woman
    he knows who sells drugs to support her family and who no
    longer attends church because of the work she has been forced
    to pursue.  The woman has told Frank that she would stop this
    illegal activity if she could get any other type of
    employment.

    What about governing?
    ---------------------
    4A.  (SBU)  Frank has a hazy idea about what the Evangelical
    Party would do once in power.  He would pursue an ambitious
    and utopian social and economic agenda that would include
    better salaries for police, less taxes on small businesses,
    and incentives for investment in Panama.  The newly elected
    party would have close relations with the United States.
    Frank believes only U.S. citizens are capable of helping
    Panama to fight the problems of drug trafficking,
    unemployment, and corruption within the Government of Panama.

    ¶5.  (SBU)  Frank is clearer about identifying problems than
    identifying solutions.  Frank described the current political
    parties in Panama as "only helping the upper classes while
    the rest of Panama grows worse."  He blames much of the
    unemployment in Colon on former President Guillermo Endara,
    who he says stopped the sale of merchandise purchased from
    the Colon Free Trade Zone, causing many people to turn to
    drug dealing to support themselves.  (Note: In this
    situation, Frank clearly does not understand economic
    fundamentals.  The purpose of a special trade zone such as
    Colon is to allow the tax-free importing of goods into a
    country for tax-free export to a third country.)  He views
    Latin American political systems as ineffective and thus
    seeks ideas from outside the region.  Frank credits the
    United States as "leaving Panama in better shape following
    its withdrawal than other countries in the Caribbean" and
    expressed interest in studying the economic growth achieved
    by India and China.

    A pyramid scheme?
    -----------------
    5A.  (SBU)  Frank described a simple plan to organize his
    political party using existing church memberships.  According
    to Frank, Evangelical churches in Panama have 450,000 members
    over age 18 who are able to vote.  Each member of the church
    will be required to recruit two other persons for the party
    enabling the Evangelicals to elect a president along with
    members of the National Assembly, Panama's legislative
    branch.  (Note: the two people to be recruited would have to
    be non-members of the Evangelical churches.  End note.)
    Frank told PolOff "there is no way we cannot win with this
    strategy."

    The Dutch Connection
    --------------------
    ¶6.  (SBU)  The Evangelicals are hoping to lure support from a
    Dutch banker who plans to open a bank in Panama in 2006.  The
    new bank would make loans to start small businesses such as
    restaurants, hotels, handicraft shops, internet cafes, and
    computer assembly plants to fight the unemployment, drug
    abuse, and poverty that bedevils Panama's poor.  Since
    Evangelicals live in all parts of Panama, Frank believes the
    whole country would benefit from this program.  Frank
    foresees ten percent of the profits from these businesses
    would help establish an Evangelical Party in 2007.  Frank and
    Dyer estimate they will need at least $1 million dollars.
    The profits generated from the businesses they hope to start
    would help finance their political campaigns in 2009 when
    Panama will elect a new president, vice president, and
    legislative assembly.  (Note: Forming a political party in
    Panama is  difficult and expensive.  One must submit a
    petition signed by 50 persons in each of Panama's nine
    provinces and five comarcas (Indian territories) and recruit
    60,000 members, a figure derived from 4% of the total votes
    in Panama's last election in 2004.  End note.)

    The Grand Tour
    --------------
    ¶7.  (SBU)  Frank plans a trip to the Netherlands and other
    countries in Europe paid for by his Dutch banker friend.  (He
    did not want to disclose his name or the name of his bank.)
    Frank is planning to study economics and finance while
    touring schools, businesses, and factories.  His stated goal
    is to observe the political stability and economic prosperity
    of Europe and learn how it could be applied to make Panama a
    developed country.

    U.S. Connection
    ---------------
    ¶8.  (SBU)  Frank said he has acquaintances active in an
    Evangelical church in North Carolina.  He also spoke about
    visiting Evangelical groups in Colombia and the Dominican
    Republic to study their political movement.  Frank also
    believes he will receive financial support from the
    Panamanian expatriate communities in the U.S., many of whom
    are Evangelicals.  Frank has also met with leaders of the
    Mormon church in Panama which has an estimated 16,000 members
    as well a missionary presence.  Members of the budding
    Evangelical Party also want to meet with Catholic leaders to
    solicit their possible support in forming a new political
    party.

    Comment
    -------
    While it is easy to dismiss the Evangelicals' plan as
    unrealistic, the proposed Evangelical Party may just reflect
    what many Panamanians already think: income disparities are
    growing worse, employment prospects are not improving, and
    the Torrijos administration, now one year old, has done
    little to improve the life of the average Panamanian.  In a
    Gallup poll recently conducted in Panama, 64% of Panamanians
    reported no preference for any political party while the
    ruling PRD garnered only 23%.  Although the Evangelicals are
    pro-business and pro-American, they could be a precursor for
    other groups with an agenda less-favorable to U.S. interests.
     Successfully forming a new political party and winning
    legislative seats, let alone the Presidency, would be a
    formidable task for Panama's evangelicals.  Winning some
    seats in the National Assembly, Panama's legislative body, is
    a more realistic goal as would forming a political bloc to
    deliver their votes to one of Panama's presidential
    candidates in 2009 in exchange for new economic and social
    programs.  However, the Evangelicals do not want to work with
    political parties who they believe have not fulfilled
    promises in the past.  Their unwillingness to form a
    coalition with other parts of Panamanian society may prevent
    them from achieving political success despite enthusiasm and
    commitment.  The emergence of politicized Evangelicals could
    also foster reform movements in Panama's existing political
    parties to win the votes of this sizable minority.
    ARREAGA

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