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### Viewing cable 07QUITO622, Bank Holiday Rumors Provoke Nervousness and Presidential

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07QUITO622 | 2007-03-15 22:15 | 2011-05-02 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Quito

`

    VZCZCXYZ0014
    OO RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHQT #0622 0742215
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    O 152215Z MAR 07
    FM AMEMBASSY QUITO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6567
    INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 6528
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 2444
    RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ MAR LIMA 1506
    RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL 2060

` `

    UNCLAS QUITO 000622

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    DEPT FOR WHA/AND AND EB/OMA
    TREASURY FOR STEPHEN GOOCH

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: EFIN ECON PGOV EC
    SUBJECT:  Bank Holiday Rumors Provoke Nervousness and Presidential
    Rebuttal

    Ref:  A) Quito 587, B) Quito 556, C) Quito 554

    ¶1.  (SBU) Summary.  An unfounded rumor that banks would be closed
    for a "bank holiday" circulated around Ecuador on March 13 and 14.
    According to banking contacts, many nervous clients called the banks
    to ask about the rumor, but actual withdrawals were minimal and not
    threatening to the banks.  President Correa made a special evening
    televised address to dismiss the rumor and assert that it was being
    spread by the political opposition.  Banking operations were
    reportedly normal the morning of March 15.  End summary.

    ¶2.  (SBU) Consulate Guayaquil first heard of rumors on Tuesday,
    March 13 from a range of contacts in Guayaquil that there would be a
    "bank holiday" in Ecuador.  Since many Ecuadorians had lost money
    during a "bank holiday" provoked by the 1999 banking crisis, these
    contacts had withdrawn funds from their banks.  Subsequent
    conversations with Quito-based banks also support the view that the
    rumors about a bank holiday originated in Guayaquil.

    ¶3.  (SBU) On Wednesday, March 14 the rumor had become more
    widespread.  Most of the banks we contacted confirmed that they had
    received numerous calls from clients who were nervous about rumors
    of a bank holiday or changes in banking regulations.  The banks said
    that they told their customers that Ecuadorian law prohibits any
    government official from declaring a bank holiday.

    ¶4.  (SBU) The banks we contacted reported that on Wednesday there
    had been some withdrawals, but the magnitude of the withdrawals was
    small and did not put any pressure on their banks.  One contact said
    that interbank clearing data from Wednesday evening did not show any
    danger signals for the system as a whole or any individual banks,
    and that sector-wide liquidity was three times that which is
    "necessary."  As of Thursday morning, one contact said that his bank
    was not seeing any signs of nervousness; this was reaffirmed by
    contacts at the banking association.

    ¶5.  (U) The rumors did take on sufficient force, however, that
    President Correa made a public statement on March 14 denying that
    there would be a bank holiday.  Correa also asserted that the rumors
    had been started by the political opposition, namely members of
    congress whose political rights were stripped by the Supreme
    Electoral Tribunal (reftels) and fanned through the use of anonymous
    call centers.  Correa also said that the economy is in "excellent
    health," and the most prosperous part of the economy is the banking
    sector which enjoyed record profits.  Minister of Economy Ricardo
    Patino also issued a statement on March 14 that there would not be a
    bank holiday and appeared on morning TV programs on March 15
    reiterating the same message.

    Comment
    -------

    ¶6.  (SBU) We believe that the rumors were unfounded.  It is possible
    that the rumors were promulgated by some group that is opposed to
    the Correa administration, but we do not know if there are any
    grounds for Correa's assertion that the defrocked members of
    congress are behind them.

    ¶7.  (SBU) While the broad banking system is sound, particularly the
    larger banks which have ample liquid off-shore assets, the rumors
    spread rapidly through a populace ready to believe there could be a
    banking crisis.  Not only did Ecuador suffer a recent banking
    crisis, but in the last two months there has been nervousness about
    the direction of Correa's economic policies.  There was a notable
    drop in demand deposits in the second half of February, although
    deposits largely recovered in March.  Even so, four smaller banks
    have suffered a more pronounced fall in demand deposits - between 12
    to 20 percent, according to data through March 2 (before the rumors
    spread) - and these banks would be particularly vulnerable to
    additional nervousness.  We believe the banking system is
    sufficiently strong that it will survive the closure of one or two
    small banks, but if several small banks failed simultaneously it
    could put pressure on the larger, healthier banks.

    ¶7.  (SBU) That so many people were spooked by an unfounded rumor
    will hopefully alert the Correa administration to the importance of
    public confidence in the banking sector and temper the government's
    inclination to impose stricter controls over the banks.

    Jewell

`