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### Viewing cable 06KINGSTON2020, JAMAICA: TRAFIGURA SCANDAL MAY AFFECT TIMING OF

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06KINGSTON2020 | 2006-10-12 12:29 | 2011-06-13 09:30 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Kingston

`

    VZCZCXYZ0001
    PP RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHKG #2020 2851229
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 121229Z OCT 06
    FM AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3749
    INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE
    RUEHZA/ARA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
    RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA 0023
    RUEHSW/AMEMBASSY BERN 0106
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0449
    RUEHTC/AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE 0724

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 002020

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    STATE FOR WHA/CAR (RANDALL BUDDEN)

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/09/2016
    TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EPET KCOR JML XL XK
    SUBJECT: JAMAICA: TRAFIGURA SCANDAL MAY AFFECT TIMING OF
    GENERAL ELECTIONS

    Classified By: Ambassador Brenda LaGrange Johnson for reasons 1.4 (b) a
    nd (d).

    ¶1. (C) The Trafigura scandal delineated septel has forced the
    resignation of Colin Campbell, Minister of Information and
    Development and PNP General Secretary, and may cause the
    Prime Minister to wait to call elections until late next
    year.  Prior to this latest imbroglio, many observers had
    speculated that Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller (PSM) of
    the ruling People's National Party (PNP) would call elections
    as early as this fall.  However, given the political fall-out
    from the scandal and the resignation of Campbell, one of her
    closest and most powerful advisors, PSM may decide to hold
    off on calling elections in hopes the scandal will blow over.

    ¶2. (C) At his request, on October 10 Emboffs met with James
    Robertson, an influential figure within the Opposition
    Jamaica Labor Party (JLP) and Member of Parliament for St.
    Thomas Western, to discuss the scandal.  According to
    Robertson, such scandals tend to be forgotten quickly in
    Jamaica, and the public is very forgiving when it comes to
    corruption.  He said he is worried that, because of the
    imbroglio, PSM will wait until next year to call elections;
    unlike the PNP, the JLP does not have sufficient funding to
    maintain its current campaign efforts until late 2007.
    Robertson speculated that if the Trafigura scandal explodes,
    incriminating much of the PNP's leadership, PSM may be forced
    to resign and call snap elections to replace the entire
    government.

    ¶3. (C) Robertson also mentioned the JLP motion of no
    confidence in the government that was tabled in Parliament
    that same day.  According to Robertson, the motion is
    unlikely to pass when it goes to vote on October 17; however,
    Robertson stated it was important to get PNP Members of
    Parliament on the record supporting a government that is
    "unethical" and "criminal."

    ¶4. (C) Robertson also stated that the JLP would pursue the
    affair vigorously and would follow the trail wherever it
    led-- and this could include PSM.  Robertson noted that four
    senior GOJ officials recently had met with executives from
    Trafigura in New York, and was curious as to whether PSM had
    been among them.  (Note: on Oct. 11, PSM publicly admitted
    that she had been present at this meeting, but claimed to
    have known nothing of any transfer of funds.  End Note.)
    However, Robertson observed, the JLP is hesitant to pursue
    PSM too vigorously, since she is loved by the Jamaican
    people, even if not within her own divided party.  Robertson
    went so far as to describe PSM as more popular with the
    people than any previous Jamaican prime ministers, including
    Michael Manley and P.J. Patterson.

    ¶5. (C) Robertson made it quite clear that the "playing field
    is not level", contending that viable democracy is under
    threat in Jamaica as a result of outside influence.  He
    pointed out that Petro Caribe funds are under no
    Parliamentary oversight or scrutiny, and that they will be
    used to maintain the political status quo (comment: echoing
    concerns expressed by JLP MP Audley Shaw to EconOff).

    ¶6. (C) Comment.  At least for the moment, Robertson's
    speculation that the Trafigura scandal could explode, leading
    to a collapse of Government and snap elections, still looks
    unlikely.  It seems more probable that PSM will wait to call
    elections in hopes the scandal will be forgotten-- like so
    many previous imbroglios in Jamaica.  Robertson was clearly
    angling for USG support, although he acknowledged that the
    Embassy could not afford to be seen as anything other than
    neutral.  End Comment.
    JOHNSON

`