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### Viewing cable 04BRUSSELS1501, GETTING TO YES IN THE CYPRUS REFERENDA: ACTION

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
04BRUSSELS1501 | 2004-04-07 08:27 | 2011-06-23 08:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Brussels
Appears in these articles: http://www.tanea.gr

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 001501

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2014
    TAGS: PREL PGOV EAID CY EUN USEU BRUSSELS
    SUBJECT: GETTING TO YES IN THE CYPRUS REFERENDA: ACTION
    PLAN FOR THE EUROPEAN UNION

    REF: (A) NICOSIA 0586 (B) ATHENS 1196

    Classified By: USEU External Affairs Officer Andrew Erickson
    for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).

    --------
    Summary:
    --------

    ¶1.  (C) With Cyprus guaranteed entry into the EU no matter
    what the outcome of the referenda, EU officials feel bereft
    of carrots to encourage a positive Greek Cypriot response.
    Promoting a "yes" vote in Cyprus will depend on our use of
    the Cyprus Pre-donors' Conference on April 15 to prove that
    there are real economic benefits for the south in the Annan
    Plan, and also to encourage clear political signals from
    European governments that the EU endorses the UN's Plan as
    the opportunity of a generation and the "European way."  USEU
    recommends the following efforts in the run-up to and
    immediately after the Pre-Donors' Conference:

    -- Senior EU leadership, in particular Hirep Solana, but also
    Enlargement Commissioner Verheugen and Relex Commissioner
    Patten, should be pressed to engage Greek and Cypriot
    leadership both publicly and privately on the need to support
    the Annan Plan.

    -- Encourage a strong indication of European support for a
    successful referendum at the April 16 Gymnich.

    -- Work with the European Parliament to send a signal via a
    non-binding resolution encouraging a  "yes" vote to the Annan
    Plan.

    At the conference itself, we should:

    -- Seek specific commitments to identify European Commission
    funding for the property commission -- the clearest signal to
    Greek Cypriots that they too will benefit from peace.

    -- Advocate with the EU concerted, visible efforts to discuss
    and ideally to develop intra-zonal investment packages that
    will benefit all islanders.

    -- Consider ear-marking pledges to elements of the Annan Plan
    that specifically address compensation for Greek Cypriots and
    that can be used to make a political argument in the south
    for a "yes" vote to the Annan Plan.

    -------------------------
    The EU's Cyprus Realities
    -------------------------

    ¶2.  (C) EU interlocutors have repeatedly told us that
    regardless of outcomes of the Annan Plan referenda, Cyprus
    will enter the EU on May 1st.  (Indeed, legally, there is no
    other option, as the accession treaty has been ratified.)
    The Annan Plan referenda in north and south will simply
    determine whether the island enters the EU as a unified whole
    or as the south alone.  Turkish Cypriot voters in the North
    know that their one chance to enter the Union soon will be a
    "yes" vote -- and the Turkish government at home knows that
    its future hopes for accession also hinge importantly on a
    positive outcome.  The battle then clearly is on the Greek
    side of the island.  Since the accession question for the
    Greeks has been resolved, persuasion must take other forms.
    The problem is that this reality defines and constrains EU
    leverage on the Republic of Cyprus, as the Greek Cypriot
    population knows that it will enter the EU irrespective of
    the outcome of the poll.  Informed northern Cypriot voters,
    in contrast, by now are equally aware that their only chance
    of entering the EU for the foreseeable future is predicated
    on a "yes" vote in the referendum.

    ¶3.  (C) Our challenge is to promote a "yes" vote in the south
    given the realities cited.  We also understand from the
    Commission that many Greek Cypriots see the Annan Plan as
    providing far more carrots to the Turks than to the Greeks.
    A successful strategy to encourage a "yes" vote by the Greek
    Cypriots must address this reality.  While Hirep Solana,
    Enlargement Commissioner Verheugen, and EU Parliament
    President Pat Cox have repeatedly stated their desire to
    facilitate a settlement publicly and privately, they -- and
    their staffs -- admit privately to us that the political
    leverage of accession is now gone.  As officials of the
    Union, they have also been reluctant to publicly encourage a
    member state to adopt a specific course of action, especially
    if Greek government support is tepid.  Brussels-based
    officials know that they hold no leverage but political
    opprobrium against a rejectionist Cypriot republic.  The EU's
    relative failure to enforce discipline against the Austrian
    government during the Haider crisis proved that Cyprus has
    little to fear from the EU in this regard.

    ---------------------
    Cyprus as the spoiler
    of Turkish accession
    ---------------------

    ¶4.  (C) The larger question of Turkish accession is another
    element to the Cyprus equation in Brussels.  We have heard
    that some EU member countries wary of offering an accession
    negotiation date for Turkey are secretly hoping for failure
    of the Annan Plan.  (Informed Commission interlocutors cite
    France, Austria, and the Netherlands as members of the group
    of those opposed.)  The entry of the Republic of Cyprus
    without northern Cyprus into the EU would immensely
    complicate Turkey's EU vocation, and provides these
    Turko-skeptics an easy out.  Even strong friends of Turkey in
    the EU, such as Enlargement Commissioner Verheugen, have told
    us that the political reality of the continued existence of
    the "TRNC" -- and the illegal Turkish occupation of a part of
    EU territory -- would be a potential deal-killer for Turkey
    in December, no matter whether Turkey and Turkish Cypriots
    supported the peace plan.

    ----------------------
    Our last best shots:
    Using the Pre-donors'
    Conference and Gymnich
    ----------------------

    ¶5.  (C) Given the current political reality in Brussels, our
    last shots at favorably influencing a Cyprus deal under the
    Annan Plan are primarily through the April 15 Pre-Donors'
    Conference and the April 16 informal EU foreign ministers'
    meeting.  We will need to change Greek Cypriot perceptions
    that the deal does not offer them enough and that waiting for
    more is not a viable strategy.  Thus, we need to work with
    the EU to ensure that the message rings loud and clear out of
    the conference that settlement will bring concrete benefits
    to the south as well as the north, and that "Europe" favors a
    yes vote.  There are two key elements to this effort:
    political and public diplomacy aimed at steering the Cypriot
    population toward yes, and setting out a series of financial
    incentives to convince waivering Greek Cypriots they will
    benefit from unification.  Obviously, a key element in this
    will be the need to work with the European Commission and
    other key potential donors at a strategy to be unveiled at
    the Pre-Donors' Conference to underscore the EU and the
    international community's commitment to addressing the
    concerns of the south.  Such an approach might include:

    -- pushing the EU to ensure sufficiently high-level
    representation at the conference, and a specific commitment
    by the European Commission to fund or identify funding for
    the property commission, which will be of particular benefit
    to the south.  The south needs tangible evidence of the
    benefits of the Annan Plan.

    -- concerted, visible EU efforts to develop intra-zonal
    investment packages that will benefit all islanders.  An
    example of this might be a private-public partnership
    addressing Greek desiderata for the development of the
    tourist industry in ways that benefit both sides of the
    former Green Line.

    -- ear-marking pledges to elements of the Annan Plan that
    specifically address compensation for Greek Cypriots,
    especially the property commission.  Given that property
    issues are particularly important to the south, we need to
    show just how important this issue is to us.

    ¶6.  (C) The donors' conference will be followed immediately
    by the informal EU Foreign Ministers' meeting in Dublin.
    This would provide a good occasion for some back-room
    straight-talk from their European colleagues with the Greek
    and Cypriot FM's, and could also provide an opportunity for
    the Irish EU Presidency to come out publicly with a call for
    Cypriots to step up to the historic occasion provided by
    these votes -- combined with a public pledge that the EU is
    ready to support a peace deal.  We recommend a letter from
    the Secretary to the Irish FM, copied to his colleagues, and
    perhaps followed up by an S phone call.

    ¶7. (C) We also endorse Athens' and Nicosia's views that
    senior EU leadership, in particular Hirep Solana but also
    Enlargement Commissioner Verheugen and External Relations
    Commissioner Patten, should be strongly encouraged to engage
    Cypriot leadership both publicly and privately on the need to
    support the Annan Plan.  The Secretary raised this April 2
    with Solana, and he pledged to do all he could to help
    convince the Greek Cypriots.  It would be useful if the
    Secretary followed up to see what Solana has been doing.  A
    well-placed press interview by Solana or another leading EU
    figure could be a key indicator of how far the EU is prepared
    to lean in favor of an agreement.  In a similar manner, the
    Irish Presidency should become engaged, and PM Ahern and FM
    Cowen encouraged to raise with their Cypriot and Greek
    counterparts the importance of seizing this historic
    opportunity.

    ¶8. (C) We also believe that it would be useful to engage
    European Parliament President Cox with an eye towards a
    parliamentary resolution advocating support for the plan.
    Ambassador Schnabel will seek an occasion in the coming days
    to discuss the issue with Cox.

    SAMMIS

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