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### Viewing cable 06BRASILIA1744, BRAZIL INTERNAL POLITICS UPDATE, 14-18 AUGUST 2006.

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06BRASILIA1744 | 2006-08-18 18:50 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Brasilia

`

    VZCZCXRO4750
    RR RUEHRG
    DE RUEHBR #1744/01 2301850
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 181850Z AUG 06
    FM AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6427
    INFO RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
    RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 5325
    RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO 7815
    RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 2718
    RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 4210
    RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 6412
    RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 5599
    RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 5699

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRASILIA 001744

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON BR
    SUBJECT:  BRAZIL INTERNAL POLITICS UPDATE, 14-18 AUGUST 2006.

    REF: BRASILIA 1659 AND PREVIOUS

    ¶1.  (U) SUMMARY.  Campaign season is now in full swing across
    Brazil.  The first debate among presidential candidates was held on
    August 14, but President Lula did not participate, although the
    others made him the focus of the two hour program.  On August 15
    candidates began running campaign messages on the free TV airtime
    allocated to parties.  Pervasive government corruption continues to
    factor heavily in the national electoral conversation, but thus far
    Lula's Teflon coat remains largely intact.  END SUMMARY.

    --------------------------------------------- -
    Lula Skips Television Debate, But Is Its Focus
    --------------------------------------------- -

    ¶2.  (U) President Lula skipped the first television debate of the
    campaign season on August 14.  Broadcaster BAND TV provided a chair
    and nameplate for him.  All other legitimate candidates
    participated: Geraldo Alckmin (Brazilian Social Democracy Party,
    Heloisa Helena (Socialism and Freedom Party), Luciano Bivar (Liberal
    Social Party) Cristovam Buarque (Democratic Labor Party), and Jose
    Eymael (Christian Social Democrat Party).  Lula had vowed to
    participate in a debate only if there is a second round of voting,
    but on August 17 he reversed himself and said he would participate
    "when it is useful." (He may have been responding to criticism in
    Geraldo Alckmin's TV ads.)  The debate stirred no dramatic media or
    public reactions, and was characterized (fairly) by leading daily
    Folha de S. Paulo as "soporific."

    ---------------------------
    Corruption Is On The Ballot
    ---------------------------

    ¶3.  (U) Just before the first televised debate, and apparently after
    surveying the long list of scandal veterans now shamelessly seeking
    re-election, Marco Aurelio Mello, president of the Superior
    Electoral Court, delivered a televised message in which he asked
    Brazilians to vote against corrupt candidates.   Later in the week
    he repeated his public admonition in stronger terms, warning voters
    not to vote for any candidate under suspicion, and he declared some
    TV campaign messages misleading. He assessed a fine of 900,000 reais
    (about USD 425,000) against President Lula for running a campaign ad
    outside of the allotted time blocks.  Opposition candidates accused
    Lula of running misleading ads because they showed images of public
    works projects in several cities that have not been completed.

    --------------------------------------------- --------
    More Congressmen Implicated in "Bloodsuckers" Scandal
    --------------------------------------------- --------

    ¶4.  (U) The Parliamentary Inquiry (CPI) investigating the
    Sanguessugas corruption scandal ("Bloodsuckers") named twenty-seven
    more federal deputies as suspects, and asked the Federal Supreme
    Court to open investigations of them. (Note: The scandal centers on
    fraudulent legislation surrounding budget appropriations for
    ambulances and other municipal services. End note.) This brings the
    number of accused members of congress in this scandal to 99,
    although the CPI has asked the Supreme Court to investigate 84.  The
    work of the CPI has been laudable, based on mostly compelling
    documentary evidence, and the results are staggering.  They are bad
    news for the PT-led coalition, since it reminds voters that most of
    the accused in the "mensalao" political bribery of the past year and
    the current "bloodsuckers" scandals have been members of the small,
    mercenary parties that make up most of the government's ramshackle
    coalition.  Nonetheless, there is no indication thus far -- even
    after a more than a year of sensational scandals that have decimated
    Lula's party and cabinet and roiled through the congress - that
    Lula's personal popularity with his base is substantially affected.

    ¶5.  (U) Comment: In a vast country united by one of the largest
    audiences of television viewers in the world, the TV campaign season
    is important, and Alckmin hopes it can be decisive.  But four days
    after the beginning of television and radio campaign advertising it
    is too soon to see an impact.  Current polling still shows Lula with
    a two to one advantage, though some experts believe he is nearing
    his ceiling.  Seven weeks can be a long time in anyone's politics,
    and Brazil is no exception.  But in the current view of most
    analysts here, Alckmin's only chance is to do well enough on the
    campaign trail and in TV time to deny Lula a first round win on
    October 1 and shift the decision  to a second round runoff on
    October 22.  Alckmin must grow dramatically in the next three to
    four weeks, and hope also that Lula stumbles politically or
    rhetorically.

    BRASILIA 00001744  002 OF 002

    SOBEL

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