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### Viewing cable 06MANAGUA2097, GANARAM: ENCOURAGING PLC MEMBERS TO VOTE

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06MANAGUA2097 | 2006-09-22 22:04 | 2011-06-01 08:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Managua

Appears in these articles:
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758456.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758467.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758468.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758464.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4103/la-embusa-y-el-gabinete-de-ortega
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4104/d-rsquo-escoto-en-onu-ldquo-un-desafio-de-ortega-a-ee-uu-rdquo
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4102/estrada-y-la-ldquo-doble-cara-rdquo-ante-ee-uu
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3966/la-ldquo-injerencia-rdquo-de-ee-uu-en-el-2006
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-23/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2758764.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-23/Mundo/NotaPrincipal/Mundo2758753.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4041/millones-de-dolares-sin-control-y-a-discrecion
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4040/la-ldquo-injerencia-rdquo-de-venezuela-en-2006
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4047/rodrigo-barreto-enviado-de-ldquo-vacaciones-rdquo
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2757239.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/NotaPrincipal/Mundo2746658.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2757244.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2746673.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3991/dra-yadira-centeno-desmiente-cable-diplomatico-eeuu
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3968/pellas-pronostico-a-eeuu-victoria-de-ortega-en-2006
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3967/barreto-era-ldquo-fuente-confiable-rdquo-para-eeuu

`

    VZCZCXYZ0000
    PP RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHMU #2097/01 2652204
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 222204Z SEP 06
    FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7661
    INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0777
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 002097

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2026
    TAGS: KDEM NU PGOV PINR PREL
    SUBJECT: GANARAM: ENCOURAGING PLC MEMBERS TO VOTE
    MONTEALEGRE

    ¶1.  (C) Summary:  Polcouns and Emboffs met with Eugenio
    Rodriguez, a Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) member
    who is part of GANARAM, a movement calling on PLC members
    to vote for Eduardo Montealegre.  Instead of
    advocating a break with the PLC, GANARAM is  encouraging
    PLC voters to support Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN)
    candidate Eduardo Montealegre, whom GANARAM members view as a "true Liberal." Rodriguez, frustrated with the PLC leadership -- he
    characterized them as a "mafia" -- sees Montealegre as the
    perfect Liberal candidate: young, professional, and with a
    clean reputation.  Rodriguez first began supporting
    Montealegre when the latter was still in the PLC and a member
    of the Bolanos Cabinet.  Rodriguez, and other mid-level PLC
    members have grown increasingly disgusted with the party
    leadership's continued adherence to the political pact
    ("pacto") with the Sandinista National Liberation Front
    (FSLN), poor party performance in the 2004 municipal elections, and
    the decision to boot Montealegre from the party.  End Summary.

    ¶2.  (C) On 20 September Polcouns and Emboffs met with
    Eugenio Rodriguez, a longtime PLC member who is encouraging
    PLC members to vote in favor of Eduardo Montealegre.
    Rodriguez is President of an organization called the National Action
    Group in Favor of Rizo Supporting Montealegre
    (GANARAM in its Spanish initials), whose members are committed
    PLC members who advocate voting for Montealegre because they
    are frustrated with PLC leadership and view Jose Rizo as a weak
    candidate chosen by a corrupt party leader -- Arnoldo Aleman.

    Rodriguez himself is a PLC member of Matagalpa's municipal
    council and a longtime PLC official, having served the party
    in several capacities at the municipal level and also as a
    party representative at the polls in previous elections.
    (Comment:  Matagalpa itself is run by a FSLN mayors, and
    the FSLN also dominates the council, which includes members
    from other parties, such as Rodriguez. End Comment.)

    ¶3.  According to its mission statement, GANARAM lists the
    following eight points as reasons for its positions:

    --All polls to date show that Montealegre is the clear
    preference for democratic voters.
    --These polls reveal that the sum of Montealegre and Rizo
    votes would guarantee the triumph of center-right
    candidate.
    --Montealegre is the only Liberal who can defeat Ortega.
    --Montealegre is a "genuine" and accomplished Liberal.
    --While Rizo is a good person, supporting him will only
    serve to divide the right.
    --The division of the center-right will only result in an
    FSLN victory and a return to the poor conditions of
    Sandinista rule.
    --Liberals are obligated to do everything possible to avoid
    a FSLN win.
    --Montealegre should lead a united Liberal front in order
    to prevent a FSLN victory.

    ALN-PLC Divide Could Prove Disastrous
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶4.  (C)  Rodriguez warned that the existence of two Liberal
    candidates divides the center-right to the point that
    Ortega could come out with a win.  He noted that the
    Sandinistas could  win in November because historically there
    has not been a large difference between PLC and FSLN
    vote counts, and that difference is likely to shrink further
    given the other candidacies voters have to choose from.
    Reflecting on the 2001 elections, Rodriguez recalled that
    the PLC won with about 1.3 million votes compared to 900,000
    of the FSLN -- a difference of about 400,000 votes.  This
    time around, the ALN and the MRS are cutting into this
    cushion, making it all the more likely that Ortega could win.

    ¶5.  (C)  On the opposite side of the coin, the
    Sandinistas are running unopposed and making use
    of substantial resources, to a great extent made
    possible by their strong showing in the 2004 elections.
    Rodriguez expressed frustration that the budget of
    Sandinista-controlled Matagalpa is 153 million Cordobas,
    but that the FSLN was using much of it to fill their
    campaign coffers.  (Comment:  Rodriguez did not address

    the impact of the MRS campaign on the Sandinistas, which we
    think is capable of siphoning off some of the FSLN vote.  MRS
    officials have told us they think that they can steal at least
    5 points of the FSLN vote, perhaps more.  End Comment.)

    Eduardo the Ideal Liberal
    - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶6.  (C) Rodriguez first began supporting Montealegre when
    the latter was still in the PLC and a member of President
    Enrique Bolanos' Cabinet.  He said that back then he and
    others saw Montealegre as the perfect Liberal candidate:
    young, professional, and with a clean reputation.  Near the
    end of 2003, Rodriguez  visited Montealegre when he
    was serving as Minister of Finance  and expressed
    interest in backing Montealegre for the PLC's presidential
    nomination.  Montealegre agreed to the support, and
    Rodriguez then joined the 'Vamos Con Eduardo' movement that
    in effect launched Montealegre to national status.
    Rodgriguez made clear he and  similar-minded PLC members
    launched the initiative with the hope that Montealegre would
    become the PLC candidate.  Rodriguez said
    that even though Montealegre has formed a new political
    movement, he remains a Liberal in terms of his politics and
    ideology.

    PLC Worth Saving
    - - - - - - - - -

    ¶7.  (C)  Despite his support for Montealegre, Rodriguez
    remains committed to the PLC.  Instead of resigning from
    the party and following Montealegre to his Nicaraguan
    Liberal Alliance (ALN), Rodriguez said that he and others
    have decided to stay in the PLC in hopes of fixing the party
    from within.  Rodriguez still sees the party as having a
    valuable infrastructure, and directs his ire solely toward
    the senior leadership strata.  He noted that the PLC
    maintains  an extremely loyal rural party base, which in fact could prove challenging in the election.  He noted that many people in
    rural areas, who are not well informed on the detrimental
    effects of the pacto, are committed to the PLC and see the
    party as the only vehicle capable of defeating the
    Sandinistas -- because these people have always voted
    Liberal, they will do so again.

    The Pacto Lives
    - - - - - - - -

    ¶8.  (C)  Rodriguez's disdain for PLC leadership stems
    largely from the pacto's negative impact  on
    the party.  He blames this agreement for weakening the PLC
    while at the same time strengthening their longtime
    enemies, the Sandinistas.  His unease and dissatisfaction
    reached the boiling point shortly after the 2004 municipal
    elections, when it became clear that the PLC had
    surrendered several municipalities not based on results at
    the ballot box, but negotiated with the FSLN behind closed
    doors.  He was especially frustrated in 2004 because the
    PLC did not reconvene following its defeat to discuss
    what went wrong.  Rodriguez said that many in the party had
    expected greater introspection and drew upon the analogy
    that any respectable sports team would do the same
    following a loss.  Instead, the party said that it was
    better to "move on."  Rodriguez claims that the pacto is
    alive and well today and that the agreement has prompted
    Arnoldo Aleman to purposefully run a weak presidential
    campaign.

    ¶9.  (C) Rodriguez also reported  that he heard from a Manuel
    Zuniga, a former Sandinista mayor of La Dalia, that Aleman
    in the summer of 2005 agreed with Ortega that Ortega would
    win November's election in return for Aleman's freedom and
    a promise that the Liberals would take office in 2012.  He
    claimed  that Jaime Morales Carazo's decision to become
    Ortega's running mate is part of the deal.  Rodriguez asserted
    that Ortega made Aleman choose a weak presidential
    candidate (i.e. Rizo) who could be easily beaten, and
    required
    an Aleman ally to join his campaign to appeal to non FSLN
    voters and
    demonstrate his moderate leanings and strengthen his own
    campaign.

    ¶10.  (C) Rodriguez opined that Ortega maintains  the
    upper hand in the pacto because his control over the
    judiciary gives him control over the keys to Aleman's
    freedom or imprisonment.  Rodriguez speculated that if

    Ortega wins, contrary to Aleman's expectations, Ortega will
    probably further marginalize Aleman rather than liberate him.
    To reduce the international scrutiny that is bound to become
    focused on a Sandinista government, Ortega will attempt to
    improve his image -- and solidify his position -- by further
    prosecuting Aleman, returning him to prison, perhaps even
    sending him to Panama to face trial there.  This move would
    enable him to burnish anti-corruption credentials.

    Frustrated By PLC "Mafia"
    - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶11.  (C) Rodriguez likened the PLC to a mafia, and said
    that a common sentiment among party leaders is 'either you
    are with us or against us.'  Following the 2004 elections
    he was told to "forget about it and move on."  When asked how
    Aleman has managed to retain so much influence over the
    party, Rodriguez replied that  Aleman draws much of his
    power from having been responsible for putting so many
    people into their positions.  These people remain loyal to
    Aleman knowing that he could break them as well -- it is a
    loyalty born of the perceived threat of retribution if one
    steps out of line.  He told Emboffs that because of his
    opposition to the party leadership he has been threatened.
    Rodriquez has subsequently begun adopting a greater awareness
    over
    his personal security, particularly while traveling.  He
    now prefers to take buses or taxis to his destinations and
    minimizes motorcycle travel because he feels too
    vulnerable.

    GANARAM Stretching its Wings
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶12.  (C) Rodriguez reported that GANARAM is gaining momentum
    and has representatives in 127 of Nicaragua's 153
    municipalities.  He said that while the movement is strongest
    in Matagalpa department, members  are also present in Esteli,
    Nueva Segovia, Managua and its surroundings, and Jinotega.
    The group appears to enjoy  the support of disparate
    former and current political officials  -- including mayors,
    vice mayors, municipal council members, and other party
    representatives.  He noted that GANARAM has contact with
    the ALN, including with Montealegre himself, Edmundo  Leal
    (Montealegre's chief of staff) and other campaign figures.
    GANARAM appears to have at least some financial resources,
    as Rodriguez told Emboffs that the movement had recently
    paid for a television advertisement featuring Rodriguez.
    According to Rodriguez, the spot begins with him garbed in
    PLC colors expressing his disgust that the party leadership
    has become so far removed from party values.  The bit ends
    with Rodriguez decked out in pro-Montealegre garb making
    the case for Liberals to vote for Montealegre, who embodies
    true Liberal politics.  Rodriguez then concludes with the
    catchy Spanish equivalent of: "He who fools me once has no
    shame; he who fools me twice shames me."

    ¶13.  (C) Comment:  Emboffs  plan further meetings with
    Rodriguez and other GANARAM adherents to explore their strength, reach, and overall plan.  On the surface, the idea of committed and
    recognizable PLC members campaigning in their localities in
    favor of a pro-Montealegre vote may have more traction than
    similar efforts by the ALN, the Embassy, or any other
    organizations.  End Comment.
    TRIVELLI

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