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### Viewing cable 06MEXICO1370, LEFT GAINS IN KEY MEXICO STATE ELECTION

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06MEXICO1370 | 2006-03-13 21:16 | 2011-05-24 10:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Mexico
Appears in these articles: http://wikileaks.jornada.com.mx/notas/el-mandatario-mexiquense-financia-empresas-encuestadoras-que-den-resultados-a-su-favor

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    VZCZCXRO7404
    PP RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
    DE RUEHME #1370/01 0722116
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    P 132116Z MAR 06
    FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9646
    INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

` `

    56350
    2006-03-13 21:16:00
    06MEXICO1370
    Embassy Mexico
    UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
    05MEXICO6403
    VZCZCXRO7404
    PP RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
    DE RUEHME #1370/01 0722116
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    P 132116Z MAR 06
    FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9646
    INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
    TAGS: PGOV PREL MX
    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 001370

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV PREL MX
    SUBJECT: LEFT GAINS IN KEY MEXICO STATE ELECTION
     REF: 05 MEXICO 6403

    ¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: Although the Institutional Revolutionary
    Party (PRI) appears to have won a narrow plurality in the
    March 12 Mexico state elections, the left-of-center Party of
    the Democratic Revolution (PRD) made impressive gains, easily
    displacing President Fox's National Action Party (PAN) as the
    second political force in the state, and weakening the hand
    of the PRI Governor.  The PRD's gains were reflected both in
    its vote for the state congress and in the number of
    mayoralties it won.  The PRI campaign undoubtedly suffered
    from the scandal over the apparent illicit enrichment of
    former state governor and PRIista Arturo Montiel (reftel).
    Yesterday's result adds to the PRD's momentum in the national
    election, while contributing to the impression that both the
    PAN and the PRI remain at a decided disadvantage.  End
    Summary.

    A Look at the Results
    ---------------------

    ¶2.  (U) At stake in the election were 125 municipal
    presidencies and 75 seats in the state congress, 45 chosen by
    direct election and 30 from statewide party lists.  Although
    the PRI apparently emerged with a narrow plurality with
    respect to votes for the state congress, both it and the PAN
    lost considerable ground to the PRD.  With approximately 97%
    of votes counted, the PRI and its alliance partner the Green
    Party (PVEM) together won 32% of the vote for the state
    congress; the PRD and its alliance partner the Labor Party
    (PT) followed close behind with 31%, with the PAN lagging at
    26%.  For purposes of comparison, in the 2003 state
    elections, the PRI won 35%, the PAN 29% and the PRD 24%.  As
    for congressional districts, the PRI appears to have won 19
    of 45 directly elected state legislators, 5 fewer than it
    held in the outgoing congress.  The PRD increased its
    representation by 7 seats, to 17, and the PAN dropped 2
    congressional seats, to 9.  The 30 congressional seats
    elected from statewide lists will be distributed
    proportionately, according to the percentage of votes each
    party won.

    ¶3.  (U) As for mayoralties, the PRI, alone and in coalition,
    won a total of 53 mayoralties, 15 less than it currently
    governs.  The PRD alone won 24 mayoralties, for a gain of 1,
    but won an additional 12 in coalition with smaller parties.
    The PAN, won 25, for a net gain of one.  Smaller parties and
    local parties won several mayoralties, and the results in
    several municipalities remain too close to call.

    Apathy Rules the Day
    --------------------

    ¶4.  (SBU) The PRI's weak performance may have been mitigated
    in part by the low participation rate, approximately 40.5%
    statewide.  Most analysts concur that a low participation
    rate favors the PRI, which has by the far the best organized
    get-out-the-vote machinery, capable of delivering a large
    number of loyal PRI voters to the polls regardless of overall
    turnout.  Yesterday's low turnout may hold a cautionary tale
    for the PRI: having only barely managed to eke out a first
    place finish with low turnout working in its favor, it may be
    hard pressed to repeat even this result on July 2, when the
    turnout is likely to be much higher.

    Electoral Officials Show Off a Professional Operation
    --------------------------------------------- --------

    ¶5.  (SBU) At the headquarters of the Mexico State Electoral
    Institute (IEEM), a festive atmosphere prevailed on election
    day.  Local officials went out of their way to welcome
    "invited guests" from foreign embassies and NGOs, offering
    three catered meals as well as a raft of IEEM-monogrammed
    souvenirs.  The IEEM gave the impression of running a highly
    professional and transparent operation, with outsiders
    allowed to observe the electoral tribunal's deliberations
    over complaints of electoral law violations.  Although there
    were scattered complaints of small-scale fraud and electoral
    law violations during the day, IEEM officials assured us the
    scale of complaints was typical for an election in what is
    Mexico's most populous state.  (Note: The press reported two
    shootings in connection with the vote.  In one case, PRI
    activists apparently shot a person who was delivering meals
    to poll workers; they apparently believed he was a PRD
    activist seeking to buy votes with free meals.  End note.)

    Expectations vs. Spin
    ---------------------

    ¶6.  (SBU) Although PRI leaders sought to spin the fact that

    MEXICO 00001370  002 OF 002

    their party remained the largest political force in Mexico
    state, several party contacts told us last week that they
    would consider anything less than 35% of the statewide vote
    to be a significant setback.  A PRI-affiliated political
    analyst told poloff today that while the PRI indeed had won a
    plurality of mayoralties in the state, many of these were in
    smaller cities.  He observed that the PAN held on to the
    major economic centers in the state, whereas the PRD won
    several of the most populous cities, most notably wresting
    control of the largest, Ecatepec, from the PRI.  He asserted
    that the big loser in the election was popular PRI Governor
    Enrique Pena Nieto, who won a landslide victory last year.
    Considered a PRI rising star and possible 2012 presidential
    candidate, Pena Nieto will have considerably less control
    over the incoming congress than he did over the outgoing
    congress, making it difficult to advance his agenda.  Our
    contact noted that the PRD and PAN factions in the incoming
    congress will now be able to join forces to hold hearings on
    former Governor Montiel's apparent illicit enrichment while
    in office, to ensure that the PRIista's misdeeds stay in the
    limelight through July 2.

    Comment: A Second Place Victory
    -------------------------------

    ¶7.  (SBU) There is no question that the PRD's impressive
    performance in a state that traditionally has been a PRI
    stronghold represents a considerable setback for the PRI.
    Nevertheless, that party's spin machine may have some value,
    as the press has been portraying the PAN as the day's biggest
    loser, when in fact it lost considerably fewer congressional
    seats than the PRI, and actually gained a mayoralty.  In our
    view, the bottom line on the Mexico state election is this:
    by finishing within one percent of the PRI, the PRD
    demonstrated that its surge in the polls -- dismissed by many
    as ephemeral -- indeed translates into considerable gains on
    the ground.  Those in the traditional parties who were
    counting on their party's "voto duro" (loyal voters) to
    emerge from the woodwork on election day had best rethink
    their strategy.

    Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at
    http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity

    GARZA

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