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### Viewing cable 07SAOPAULO915, DESPITE PROBLEMS, BRAZILIAN AIRLINES OPTIMISTIC

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07SAOPAULO915 | 2007-11-14 09:52 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Consulate Sao Paulo

`

    VZCZCXRO5714
    PP RUEHRG
    DE RUEHSO #0915/01 3180952
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    P 140952Z NOV 07
    FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7670
    INFO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 8791
    RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 3172
    RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 2936
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0598
    RUEHME/AMEMBASSY MEXICO 0826
    RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 2495
    RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ 3562
    RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 2199
    RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 8435
    RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 3876
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
    RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
    RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 2948
    RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
    RHMCSUU/FAA NATIONAL HQ WASHDC
    RUEAYVF/FAA MIAMI ARTCC MIAMI FL
    RULSDMK/DEPT OF TRANSPORTATION WASHDC
    RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SAO PAULO 000915

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    STATE FOR WHA/EPSC AND EEB/TRA
    STATE PASS USTR FOR KATE DUCKWORTH
    FAA FOR CCAPESTANY, GBURDICK DEPT OF TRANSPORTATION FOR BHEDBERG
    BUENOS AIRES FOR TSA ATTACHE
    MEXICO CITY FOR TSA ATTACHE MGALVAN
    USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC
    USDOC ALSO FOR 3134/USFCS/OIO
    NSC FOR TOMASULO
    TREASURY FOR JHOEK
    SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD
    USAID FOR LAC/AA

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: EAIR PREL MARR PGOV ECON EINV BEXP BR
    SUBJECT: DESPITE PROBLEMS, BRAZILIAN AIRLINES OPTIMISTIC

    REF: Brasilia 290
    SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED--PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY

    ¶1.  (SBU) Summary.  Ambassador Sobel met with the Presidents of the
    two leading Brazilian airlines TAM and Gol on October 22 to discuss
    developments in the aviation sector.  Both firms noted that Brazil's
    underdeveloped infrastructure is buckling under increased air
    traffic in recent years.  The TAM and Gol executives expressed hope
    that the new Minister of Defense would promote private investment
    into infrastructure and suggested that several Brazilian firms are
    willing to support this development.  The limited number of aircraft
    is a constraint for international expansion; TAM and Gol first are
    trying to utilize rights to European destinations via Brazil's
    bilateral aviation agreements, and then will pursue additional
    flights to the U.S. market, where Brazilian carriers have unused
    frequencies.  Although both companies are receptive to expanding
    flights to/from Northeast Brazil, they are likely to focus their
    limited aircraft fleets on the traditional destinations of New York
    and Miami via Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro in the short-term.  End
    Summary.

    Infrastructure Constraints Limiting Growth in Industry
    ------------------------
    ¶2.  (SBU) The Presidents of TAM Airlines (TAM), Marco Antonio
    Bologna, and Gol Airlines, Constantino de Oliveira Junior, told
    Ambassador Sobel in separate meetings on October 22 that the growing
    air traffic demand is stretching Brazil's aging and underdeveloped
    aviation infrastructure.  TAM said industry priorities for
    infrastructure in Sao Paulo are the third runway and additional
    terminal at Sao Paulo's main international terminal at Guarulhos, as
    well as developing a third airport in the greater Sao Paulo area.
    Gol's Oliveira told the Ambassador that privatizing the existing
    Viracopos Airport in Campinas is the best option because of
    available space and its existing infrastructure.  [Note: Viracopos
    is about 40 miles outside of downtown Sao Paulo, and currently
    services mostly private aircraft and cargo.  End Note.]  Oliveira
    also emphasized the need to modernize SP's commuter airport,
    Congonhas, by extending the runway, which would require invoking
    eminent domain to condemn nearby property.

    ¶3.  (SBU) Marco Antonio Bologna of TAM noted the need for
    significant private investment to meet Brazil's infrastructure
    needs.  He complained that despite Minister of Defense (MOD) Nelson
    Jobim's apparent openness to private investment, the Brazilian
    government is dumping money into the MOD's budget rather than
    encouraging private participation.  The Ambassador underscored the
    lack of a strong investment framework for foreign investors in
    Brazil, including the inconsistent regulatory framework, lack of
    transparency, and uncertain return on investment.  Both Bologna and
    Oliveira expressed interest in investing in private terminals and
    airports, and stated that several financing firms share their
    interest.

    Industry Positive about New Leadership
    ------------------------
    ¶4.  (SBU) TAM and Gol were upbeat about the new faces at the
    National Agency of Civil Aviation (ANAC) and Infraero, the
    government agency that manages airports.  TAM said the GoB's
    appointment of Minister Jobim demonstrates a positive step toward
    reforming management of the sector, and that his involvement in the

    SAO PAULO 00000915  002 OF 003

    regulatory framework should help; however, TAM continued to expect
    any measurable improvements in overall performance to take a long
    time.  Oliveira also noted that Jobim is a man of action, and hoped
    to see him begin reforming the sector when the Senate approved the
    recently nominated ANAC Board of Directors.  He said Solange Vieira,
    who he expected to be confirmed as Chairman, is dynamic and
    intelligent.  Ambassador Sobel agreed that Jobim's appointment is a
    positive step.  He hopes to encourage Jobim to meet with both
    Department of Defense and aviation sector leaders when he visits
    Washington in January.

    Reforms in Sector Needed
    ------------------------
    ¶5.  (SBU) Bologna told the Ambassador that although both civil and
    military air traffic control systems can work, it is easier to
    increase incentives for civilian controllers than for their military
    counterparts, and he believes military controllers are more
    concerned about their careers than the sector's performance.
    Bologna suggested using the more than USD 600 million in tariffs the
    industry collected last year for technological upgrades.  He told
    the Ambassador that the GoB had created a framework of 18
    resolutions in 2003 to improve the sector; however, the GoB has done
    nothing to address them.

    Aircraft Shortage Dictates Strategic International Expansion
    ------------------------
    ¶6.  (SBU) TAM and Gol confirmed press reports that worldwide the
    industry's major restraint is that demand for larger aircraft is
    outstripping supply.  Bologna said TAM is unable to fulfill its
    international expansion plans and expects aircraft shortages through
    ¶2008.  Oliveira also noted that fleet size is Gol's primary
    constraint, especially large aircraft for transoceanic flights to
    Europe and the U.S.  As a result, the airlines have to husband their
    resources carefully.  Both TAM and Gol are currently trying to
    secure as many of Brazil's rights in Europe as possible because
    Brazilian bilateral agreements with European countries provide for
    more limited weekly flight frequencies.  [Note:  Brazil's bilateral
    agreement with the U.K. allows for 14 frequencies per week, while
    the U.S. agreement grants 105 per week.  In April 2006, the GoB
    canceled all allocations for the defunct airline, Varig, and then
    reallocated 29 frequencies to the new Varig-Gol and 28 to TAM.  In
    October last year, the GoB increased TAM's allocation to 35
    frequencies.  On October 25, the USDOT had a preliminary meeting
    with Varig-Gol, during which Varig-Gol expressed its intention to
    apply as a new company.  If that happens, it would need to
    renegotiate any flight frequencies directly with the GoB at that
    point.  It does not currently operate flights to the U.S.
    Therefore, the bottom line is that Brazilian carriers are currently
    using only 35 of its available 105 frequencies, and TAM is using
    them all.  End Note.]  When asked about Open Skies, Bologna said the
    trend is moving toward multilateral agreements over the next 5-10
    years.  He did not think TAM could be receptive to such an agreement
    before then.

    ¶7.  (SBU) Both TAM and Gol told the Ambassador they will turn their
    attention back to U.S. destinations in 2008.  TAM will use its new
    partnership with United Airlines to launch a new route to Los
    Angeles International Airport, followed by additional routes to
    Miami and New York from Rio.  Gol launches flights to London, Mexico
    City and Madrid from Sao Paulo this year and plans to add routes to

    SAO PAULO 00000915  003 OF 003

    New York and Miami from an as-yet undetermined destination in Brazil
    early next year.  Oliveira told Ambassador Sobel that Gol plans to
    keep Gol as the low-cost carrier and maintain Varig as its
    full-service carrier. Oliveira also outlined an unorthodox strategy
    to develop routes to non-traditional U.S. cities such as Boston, LA,
    Dallas, DC and Orlando via a Central American hub (similar to
    Panama's Copa Airlines), allowing Gol to continue to operate smaller
    and shorter range jets.

    ¶8.  (SBU) Both companies indicated that service between the U.S. and
    Brazil's Northeast is of interest, but a lower priority.  Gol said
    Varig is exploring a longer-term code sharing arrangement with Delta
    or American Airlines, but it is not feasible right now.  Gol also is
    considering a direct U.S. flight from Brasilia (not clear to where),
    as well as Brasilia-Manaus-U.S. and Brasilia-Fortaleza-U.S.
    services.

    We Need Help
    ------------
    ¶9.  (SBU) Bologna requested that U.S. Mission Brazil help encourage
    the GoB to stay focused on civil aviation problems and on increasing
    markets for passenger and cargo transport.  Bologna also supported
    encouraging Minister Jobim to change Brazilian laws to increase
    flexibility for private investment.  Gol encouraged U.S.-Brazilian
    technical exchanges, and suggested the USG reinforce the GoB's need
    for outside support to address deficiencies.  "Brazil cannot do it
    alone," Oliveira stressed.  Gol also suggested the Mission persuade
    U.S. aircraft parts suppliers to open facilities in Belo Horizonte.

    Comment
    -------
    ¶9.  (SBU) Gol and TAM Airlines painted a positive outlook despite
    existing bottlenecks in the Brazilian aviation sector.  Although
    both companies are actively developing expansion strategies, the
    limited availability of aircraft over the near term is likely to
    delay the launch of new U.S. service.  These capacity and financing
    constraints will limit Brazilian airlines' ambitions at bilateral
    negotiations in December as well as the likelihood of their
    introducing new U.S. routes from cities in Brazil's Northeast over
    the medium term.  For the immediate future, Brazil may look to U.S.
    carriers to fulfill any hope for new air service to the country's
    Northeast.  End Comment.

    ¶10.  This cable has been drafted and coordinated with Embassy
    Brasilia and was approved by Ambassador Sobel.

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