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### Viewing cable 06SAOPAULO30, PMDB Leader Ponders Party's Electoral Options

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06SAOPAULO30 | 2006-01-11 14:02 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Consulate Sao Paulo

`

    VZCZCXRO8438
    PP RUEHRG
    DE RUEHSO #0030/01 0111402
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    P 111402Z JAN 06
    FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4338
    INFO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 5515
    RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 2016
    RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 2377
    RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 1794
    RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ 2540
    RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 1541
    RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 6779
    RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 2682
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
    RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SAO PAULO 000030

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    SIPDIS

    NSC FOR CRONIN
    STATE PASS USTR FOR SULLIVAN/LEZNY

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PINR PGOV ETRD BR
    SUBJECT: PMDB Leader Ponders Party's Electoral Options

    REF: (A) 05 Sao Paulo 1402; (B) Sao Paulo 1372

    ¶1. (U) Sensitive but Unclassified - protect accordingly.

    ¶2. (SBU) Summary: Federal Deputy Michel Temer, national
    president of the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB),
    believes that public disillusion with President Lula and the
    Workers' Party (PT) provides an opportunity for the PMDB to
    field its own candidate in the 2006 presidential election.
    However, party divisions and the lack of a compelling choice
    as a candidate could force the PMDB into an alliance with
    Lula's PT or the opposition PSDB. If Lula's polling numbers
    do not improve before the PMDB primaries in March, Temer
    said his party might nominate its own candidate.  This would
    still allow the party to forge an alliance with the PT or
    PSDB in a runoff, assuming that the PMDB candidate fails to
    make the second round.  Given its centrist orientation, the
    PMDB may hold the balance of votes between the two opposing
    forces.  It is also likely to remain a force at the local
    and state level.  Temer believes it has a chance to win as
    many as 14 gubernatorial races. End Summary.

    ---------------------------
    With Allies Like This . . .
    ---------------------------

    ¶3.   (SBU) Michel Temer, a Federal deputy from Sao Paulo who
    served as president of the Chamber of Deputies from 1997
    through 2000, met January 9 with CG and poloffs to discuss
    the current political situation.  Lula's election, he said,
    had raised great hope among the Brazilian people, but his
    performance in office has been disappointing.  Temer
    criticized Lula's narrow vision and his excessive focus on
    social safety net programs that don't promote growth or
    economic development.  The PT had campaigned on one program
    and, once in office, had done the opposite of what it
    promised, which Temer characterized as electoral fraud.
    Worse, some PT leaders had stolen state money, not for
    personal gain, but to expand the party's power, and had thus
    fomented a great deal of popular disillusion.

    -------------------------
    PMDB Perceives an Opening
    -------------------------

    ¶4.   (SBU) This reality, Temer continued, opens an
    opportunity for the PMDB.  The party currently holds nine
    statehouses and has the second-highest number of federal
    deputies (after the PT), along with a great many mayoralties
    and city council and state legislative seats.  Polls show
    that voters are tired of both the PT and the main opposition
    party, the Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB).  For
    example, a recent poll showed former governor (and PMDB
    state chairman) Orestes Quercia leading in the race for Sao
    Paulo state governor.

    -----------------------
    Divisions Dog the Party
    -----------------------

    ¶5.   (SBU) Asked why the PMDB remains so divided, Temer said
    the reasons were both historical and related to the nature
    of Brazilian political parties.  The PMDB grew out of the
    Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) under the military
    dictatorship, which operated as an umbrella group for
    legitimate opposition to the military dictatorship.  After
    the restoration of democracy, some members left the PMDB to
    form new parties (such as the PT and PSDB), but many of
    those who remained now act as power brokers at the local and
    regional level.  Thus the PMDB has no real unifying national
    identity but rather an umbrella organization for regional
    "caciques" or bosses.  Temer noted that the PMDB is not the
    only divided party.  Although there are 28 political parties
    in Brazil, most of them do not represent an ideology or a
    particular line of political thinking that would support a
    national vision.

    ----------------------------

    SAO PAULO 00000030  002 OF 003

    PMDB Primaries Set for March
    ----------------------------

    ¶6.   (SBU) Temer confirmed press reports that he is seeking
    to move the March 5 primary date to a date later in the
    month.  (Note: March 31 is the deadline for executives and
    Ministers to resign their offices if they plan to run for
    public office.  End Note.)  There will be some 20,000
    electors, he said, including all PMDB members who hold
    electoral office (federal and state deputies, governors,
    mayors, vice-governors and -mayors, and other elected
    municipal officials) as well as delegates chosen at state
    conventions.

    ---------------------------------------
    Lula's Numbers Will Drive PMDB Strategy
    ---------------------------------------

    ¶7.   (SBU) If, between now and the primary, the Lula
    government's standing in the polls improves, it is still
    possible the PMDB will seek an electoral alliance with Lula
    and the PT, Temer said.  If not, the PMDB will run its own
    candidate.  So far, Rio de Janeiro ex-governor Anthony
    Garotinho has been working the hardest, reaching out to the
    whole country in search of support.  But there is resistance
    to him from within the PMDB, in part due to his populist
    image, in part because there appears to be a ceiling to his
    support.  Germano Rigotto, governor of Rio Grande do Sul
    (reftels) is a possible candidate, though he is still not
    well known outside the south.  Nelson Jobim, a judge on the
    Supreme Federal Tribunal (STF) who has announced his
    intention to step down, is another possibility; however, he
    can't campaign until he leaves the Tribunal, and he may not
    have time to attract the support necessary to win the
    primary.

    --------------------------------------------
    PMDB's Fallback - PT or PSDB in Second Round
    --------------------------------------------

    ¶8.   (SBU) Temer was confident that despite its current
    division, the PMDB will unite for the election, whether in
    support of its own candidate or in alliance with another
    party.  If it runs a candidate who fails to make it to the
    second round, the party will seek to negotiate an alliance
    with one of the two finalists.  He noted that the PMDB had
    supported the government of PSDB former president Fernando
    Henrique Cardoso, and said there should be a "re-fusion" of
    the two parties into a permanent grand alliance.  The PMDB
    would have no problem with either Sao Paulo Mayor Jose Serra
    or Sao Paulo state governor Geraldo Alckmin, who are
    competing for the PSDB nomination.  In 2002, the PMDB
    supported Serra against Lula.

    ¶9.   (SBU) Asked about the party's program, Temer indicated
    that the PMDB favors policies to support economic growth.
    It has no objection to the Free Trade Area of the Americas
    (FTAA).  It would prefer to see Mercosul strengthened so as
    to negotiate FTAA as a bloc, but the trend appears to be
    moving the other way.

    ------------------------------
    Comment: PMDB As Power Broker?
    ------------------------------

    ¶10.  (SBU) For now, the PMDB is keeping its options open.
    Though Temer didn't mention it, the party's leadership is
    waiting to see whether the "verticalizacao" rule will remain
    in force for the 2006 elections.  This rule, decreed by a
    2002 decision of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE),
    dictates that electoral alliances at the national level must
    be replicated in races for governors and federal deputies.
    The Senate passed a measure repealing the rule, and the
    lower chamber is expected to vote on it shortly, with
    prospects uncertain.  There is also a legal challenge to the
    rule pending which the TSE will likely take up in February.
    The PMDB wants to know the rules of the game before deciding
    on possible alliances, since most observers believe that a

    SAO PAULO 00000030  003 OF 003

    PMDB presidential candidate would not fare well under the
    current system of "verticalizacao."  Temer appeared open to
    the possibility of an alliance with either the PT or the
    PSDB, or to a stand-alone PMDB candidate.  Given its
    centrist orientation, the PMDB may hold the balance of votes
    between Lula's PT and the opposition PSDB, and thus bears
    watching closely in the months ahead. End Comment.

    ¶11.  (U) Biographic Note: Michel Miguel Elias Temer Lulia
    has served as federal deputy from Sao Paulo since 1987,
    except for a two-year period (1993-94) when he was Secretary
    for Public Security in the Sao Paulo state government.  He
    studied at the University of Sao Paulo and earned a
    Doctorate in Law from the Catholic University of Sao Paulo.
    From 1984 through 1986 he was the state's Prosecutor
    General.  He served as the PMDB's leader in the Camara de
    Deputados 1995-97 and as President of the Camara 1997-2000.
    He was national president of the PMDB 2001-03 and 2004-
    present.

    ¶12.  (U) This cable was cleared/coordinated with Embassy
    Brasilia.

    McMullen

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