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### Viewing cable 06SAOPAULO206, LULA'S RECOVERY IN POLLS EXPOSES PSDB QUANDARY

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06SAOPAULO206 | 2006-02-23 19:26 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Consulate Sao Paulo

`

    VZCZCXRO6889
    OO RUEHRG
    DE RUEHSO #0206/01 0541926
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    O 231926Z FEB 06
    FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4562
    INFO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 5714
    RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 2047
    RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 2402
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0189
    RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 1819
    RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ 2587
    RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 1564
    RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 6842
    RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 2717
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
    RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
    RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
    RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 2284

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SAO PAULO 000206

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    NSC FOR CRONIN
    STATE PASS USTR FOR SULLIVAN/LEZNY
    USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC/JANDERSEN/ADRISCOLL/MWAR D
    USDOC FOR 3134/USFCS/OIO/EOLSON/DDEVITO/DANDERSON

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV PINR BR
    SUBJECT: LULA'S RECOVERY IN POLLS EXPOSES PSDB QUANDARY

    Ref: (A) BRASILIA 353 and PREVIOUS; (B) SAO PAULO 73

    ¶1.  (U) SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY.

    -------
    SUMMARY
    -------

    ¶2. (U) Recent polls showing President Lula recovering lost
    popularity have sounded alarms within the opposition Brazilian
    Social Democracy Party (PSDB), which is struggling to nominate a
    candidate to oppose him in the October presidential election.  Party
    chieftains have been resistant to calls for a primary or some other
    formal decision-making mechanism, fueling a perception of an
    elitist, undemocratic leadership.  Sniping between the two
    pre-candidates, Sao Paulo Mayor Jose Serra and Sao Paulo State
    Governor Geraldo Alckmin, has grown more heated over the past week.
    At this point, even the question of when a decision will be made
    remains uncertain.  The PSDB's mishandling of what normally would be
    considered a major strength - two distinguished, highly qualified
    contenders - calls into question its organizational ability and
    political acumen for mounting a strong challenge to Lula.  While
    there is time for the party to recover from their recent missteps,
    it is not yet clear they've figured out how to do it.  End Summary.

    ---------------------------
    POLLS OVERSHADOW PSDB EVENT
    ---------------------------

    ¶3.  (U) On February 16, the PSDB hosted a seminar in Sao Paulo,
    calling together party economists and office-holders to discuss
    economic initiatives and programs to be used in this year's election
    campaign.  The two pre-candidates, Jose Serra and Geraldo Alckmin,
    were present, as were the party's three "cardinals" or king-makers,
    former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso (FHC), Senator from Ceara
    (and party president) Tasso Jereissati, and Minas Gerais Governor
    Aecio Neves, along with a host of other PSDB luminaries.  The event
    was to some extent overshadowed, however, by the February 14 release
    of a CNT-Sensus poll showing that President Lula could defeat either
    PSDB candidate comfortably (ref A).  Following on a Datafolha poll
    released in early February, the latest numbers appeared to confirm a
    Lula comeback from a deep hole caused by the political scandal.
    (Note: Yet another Datafolha poll released February 22 reconfirmed
    Lula's lead.  End note.)

    -------------------------------
    DESPERATELY SEEKING PARTY UNITY
    -------------------------------

    ¶4. (U) While some PSDB members questioned the Sensus poll's
    validity, others quickly recognized the challenge posed by a
    resurgent Lula and the need for party unity to confront it.  Many
    wanted to rally around Serra, but he has still not declared his
    candidacy and has indicated he will not decide until March (ref B).
    Observers agree he wants to run, even though it means resigning with
    almost three years remaining in his term as Mayor, but that he wants
    to be acclaimed the party's choice and guaranteed its full support.
    The leadership has been generally supportive of Serra on the
    strength of earlier polls showing him defeating Lula, but it cannot
    create consensus where it does not exist.  The impression that the
    nomination is Serra's for the asking was strengthened by the
    king-makers' February 16 dinner in an upscale Sao Paulo restaurant,
    at which Serra but not Alckmin was present.  Alckmin, however, who
    in January declared his intention to resign the office of Governor
    by March 31 as required by electoral law, has refused to disavow his
    candidacy, arguing that the party should hold a primary or some
    other formal process to make its choice.

    ¶5. (SBU) Up to now, party insiders have intimated that the three
    king-makers (or, in some versions, FHC by himself) will choose the
    candidate following private internal consultations.  Now the party
    is belatedly recognizing that such a process may make it look
    anachronistic, and non-transparent in Brazil's maturing democracy,
    in which other major parties, such as the Brazilian Democratic

    SAO PAULO 00000206  002 OF 002

    Movement Party (PMDB) and Lula's Workers' Party (Partido dos
    Trabalhadores - PT), are planning to hold primaries.  Some prominent
    "tucanos" (as PSDB members are called, after the party symbol) - for
    example, Goias State Governor Marconi Perillo and Curitiba Mayor
    Jose Alberto Richa - have begun to complain about being excluded
    from the process.  Struggling to control the damage, the triumvirate
    reportedly met February 21 with Alckmin and indicated that, though
    they still don't see the need for a primary, they will not make a
    decision until March 10-15, after listening to the views of the
    party's governors, federal deputies, and senators.

    ------------------------
    AS THE CANDIDATES BICKER
    ------------------------

    ¶6. (SBU) Judging by the intensified rhetoric, the contenders
    themselves may also be feeling the pressure.  Serra has reportedly
    characterized Alckmin as "intransigent" for his refusal to step
    aside, suggesting he should follow the statesmanlike example of the
    late Sao Paulo Governor (1983-87) Andre Franco Montoro, who in 1985,
    despite being considered the "natural" candidate, stepped aside to
    allow Tancredo Neves to run in the indirect presidential election
    that led to restoration of Brazilian democracy.  In invoking Franco
    Montoro, Serra is implicitly mocking those who have called Alckmin
    the "natural" PSDB candidate, as well as the Alckmin himself for
    wrapping himself in the mantle of the late Governor (1995-2001) and
    PSDB co-founder Mario Covas, whom he served for six years as
    Lieutenant Governor.  (Some Alckmin supporters told us they are
    planning to take advantage of upcoming observation of the fifth
    anniversary of Covas's death to demonstrate the strength of
    Alckmin's support.)  For his part, the normally even-tempered,
    taciturn Alckmin has shown increasing irritation at insinuations
    that he is an "adventurer" and a Lone Ranger when in fact he is, as
    he points out, his party's only declared candidate.  Nonetheless,
    Serra and the PSDB leadership evidently wish he would just go away.

    -------
    COMMENT
    -------

    ¶7. (SBU) Since the political scandal broke in May 2005, the PSDB has
    been looking forward to these elections as a chance to score major
    gains over a weakened PT.  The embarrassment of riches constituted
    by having too many qualified candidates is the sort of problem most
    parties would give an arm and a leg for, and it places the PSDB in
    sharp contrast with the PT, which has no one but Lula.  Yet the PSDB
    is clearly at a loss as to how to decide the issue, and the more
    competitive the race with Lula looks, the dithering is starting to
    inflict damage on the party's campaign before it even gets under way
     Some party faithful are grumbling that either Serra or Alckmin
    would be fine with them, but they wish the party would decide and
    move on, because the indecision is hurting them.

    ¶8. (SBU) At this point, a primary is not a practical notion, if only
    because of the difficulty of organizing one from scratch before the
    March 31 deadline by which Serra and Alckmin have to resign if they
    are going to run.  Even Alckmin may not really want a primary; more
    likely, his calling for one is a tactic to demonstrate he is a
    serious candidate with real support among the party's base.  But the
    party does need to open up its decision-making process, and Alckmin
    hopes that consultations among professional party politicians will
    show that his support is broader than previously suspected.  There
    is still time for the PSDB to resolve this problem, close ranks, and
    repair the damage, but it's not yet clear they've figured out how to
    do it.  End comment.

    ¶9. (U) This cable was cleared/coordinated with Embassy Brasilia.

    McMullen

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