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### Viewing cable 06BRASILIA661, MERCOSUR TURNS 15 - A SOMBER QUINCEANERA

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06BRASILIA661 | 2006-04-05 13:35 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Brasilia

`

    VZCZCXRO3250
    RR RUEHRG
    DE RUEHBR #0661/01 0951335
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    R 051335Z APR 06
    FM AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5021
    INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 5346
    RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 3927
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 3189
    RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ 4486
    RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 2925
    RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 6173
    RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 5431
    RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 4572
    RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 1830
    RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO 6693
    RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
    RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRASILIA 000661

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS
    STATE PASS TO USTR FOR MSULLIVAN/KLEZNY
    NSC FOR SUE CRONIN
    TREASURY FOR FPARODI
    AID/W FOR AA/LA
    USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC/JANDERSEN/ADRISCOLL/MWAR D
    USDOC FOR 3134/USFCS/OIO/SHUPKA

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/04/2016
    TAGS: ETRD ECIN PGOV PREL BR
    SUBJECT: MERCOSUR TURNS 15 - A SOMBER QUINCEANERA

    REF: A. BRASILIA 362
         ¶B. MONTEVIDEO 254
         ¶C. 3/22 2006 CRS REPORT "MERCOSUR AND U.S. TRADE
            POLICY"
         ¶D. 2/3/2006 CRS REPORT "BRAZILIAN TRADE POLICY AND
            THE UNITED STATES"
         ¶E. BRASILIA 653
         ¶F. MONTEVIDEO 305
         ¶G. BRASILIA 117

    Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Phillip Chicola, based upon Reasons 1.
    5(B) and (D)

    ¶1. (SBU) Summary.  The fifteenth anniversary of the Treaty of
    Asuncion, which created Mercosul, took place on March 26, but
    was barely noticed in Brazil.  Instead of an elaborate
    birthday celebration, the only events marking the date here
    were scattered ) and poorly publicized ) retrospective
    seminars.  The reason, of course, is that the alliance is in
    the midst of a troubled adolescence, with intra-bloc trade
    lagging and junior members of the partnership rebelling
    against their larger neighbors.  Meanwhile, economic
    asymmetries and political tensions make dialogue among member
    countries difficult.  Within GOB circles, there is a vigorous
    debate ongoing regarding the economic usefulness of Mercosul
    ) though the pro-Mercosul forces continue to have the upper
    hand.  It is too early to tell how all this will work out,
    but the consensus in Brazil is that intra-Mercosul relations,
    especially given the recent entry of Venezuela into the bloc,
    will get worse and may never get much better.  End Summary.

    Debate Within Brazil on Mercosul
    --------------------------------
    ¶2. (SBU) Mercosul is not universally loved in Brazil.  As
    post has previously reported (ref A), industry groups and
    certain government policymakers are openly questioning
    whether Mercosul benefits Brazil economically at all.  This
    line of thinking posits that Brazil could export much more if
    it were free of the constraints imposed upon it by the
    Mercosul customs union; specifically, without such baggage as
    the Mercosul common external tariff (or its Mercosul partners
    in general) Brazil would have greater success negotiating
    trade agreements with its main partners, such as the U.S. and
    the EU.  The numerous exceptions of free trade within the
    bloc, such as the Automotive Accord, restraints on sugar, and
    the bilateral Brazil-Argentina safeguards mechanism (MAC),
    are seen by this faction as further irritants.

    ¶3. (SBU) However, within the GOB the dominant camp, lead by
    the Foreign Ministry, continues to embrace the alliance,
    noting that any economic negatives are more than outweighed
    by the political elements ) i.e., the existence of a forum
    for settling regional quarrels (especially between Brazil and
    Argentina), which gives Brazil a nearly undisputed leadership
    role.  In addition, pro-Mercosul partisans argue that with
    Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay along for the ride, Brazil
    gains a force multiplier in its efforts to cement its role
    not only as the dominant player in South America but as the
    natural leader of the developing country G-20 bloc in the WTO
    Doha Round negotiations.  Concentrating first on South-South
    integration, this reasoning continues, will provide Brazil
    greater leverage when confronting the developed world at the
    negotiating table.

    Lagging Intra-Mercosul Trade
    ----------------------------
    ¶4. (U) Theory, unfortunately, has not coincided with reality.
     The level of intra-Mercosul trade has ebbed and flowed over
    the years in a sine-curve like fashion.  In 1998, Mercosul
    absorbed about 17 percent of Brazilian exports.  In 2005,
    this figure was a mere 9.9 percent.  Meanwhile, as a whole,
    Mercosul only absorbs about 20 percent of the exports of its
    member countries.  In comparison, the corresponding figure
    for intra-bloc exports within the EU is 65 percent, and for
    NAFTA, 70 percent.

    BRASILIA 00000661  002 OF 003

    Economic Asymmetries and Political Tensions
    -------------------------------------------
    ¶5. (U) There is no shortage of work analyzing the mediocre
    performance of the Mercosul bloc to date. Ref C looks at the
    issue in terms of asymmetries.  "From the outset, Mercosu(l)
    struggled to reconcile a basic inconsistency of partial
    economic union:  how to achieve trade integration, while also
    ensuring that the benefits would be balanced among members,
    and that each country would retain some control over its
    trade, production, and consumption structure.  At the heart
    of the problem are the 'natural asymmetries' that exist among
    four economies with inherently large discrepancies in size,
    structure, resources endowment, and level of development . .
    . . These differences can be compounded by 'policy
    asymmetries' that arise from incongruities in fiscal,
    monetary, industrial, exchange rate, and other policies.
    Either type of asymmetry can distort trade flows, causing
    large imbalances that threaten the stability of the
    agreement."

    ¶6. (SBU) Political and cultural tensions complicate
    intra-bloc relations as well.  The Brazil-Argentina rivalry
    casts its shadow over much of Mercosul decision-making.
    However, there are other fault lines as well.  There is no
    love lost between Brazil and Paraguay, as evidenced by the
    continuing friction over cross-border contraband and the
    general Brazilian disdain for things Paraguayan. (When foot
    and mouth disease resurfaced in Brazil in 2005, one of the
    first, and still most popular, explanations was contamination
    from unvaccinated Paraguayan cattle.)  And while Uruguay and
    Paraguay both have issues with each other ) as do Brazil and
    Argentina ) the two smaller countries complain about the
    larger countries and vice versa.  The current flap between
    Argentina and Uruguay (ref F) regarding the latter's
    construction of paper mills on a common border river is just
    the latest example of this.  From the Brazilian point of
    view, Paraguay and Uruguay should just be glad that they are
    part of the show.  As one prominent Sao Paulo business leader
    commented to us, "Why should we pay attention to the
    Uruguayans when their GDP is less than that of Santo Amaro (a
    suburb of Sao Paulo and home to a number of multinational
    companies)?"

    Enter Chavez
    ------------
    ¶7. (SBU) Now into this turbulent state of affairs steps
    Venezuela.  As ref B notes, Caracas' entry will only increase
    the lack of coherence within Mercosul.  From an economic
    point of view, Venezuela does not fit in as its
    petroleum-dominated economy provides yet another layer of
    asymmetry as does its Andean Community tariff structure.
    Trying to reconcile Venezuela's Andean Community Common
    External Tariffs with those of Mercosul could take years.
    Moreover, Brazilian industry leaders point out that removing
    GOV tariff barriers will not have any great differential
    impact as local businesses already are selling as much as
    they could ever expect to Venezuela.  On the import side, few
    fear competition from what are seen as inefficient Venezuelan
    manufacturers.

    ¶8. (C) The calculation of President Lula and Foreign Minister
    Amorim appears to have been that Venezuelan accession would
    promote regional stability by subsuming Chavez within the
    multilateral Mercosul framework.  In fact, FM Amorim recently
    told a visiting US delegation that Venezuela,s entry into
    Mercosul was "more of a political hope than an economic
    reality." Ref G.  Yet, politically, such a move threatens to
    increase tensions as by siding with either Brasilia or Buenos
    Aires the vocal Chavez could destabilize the Brazil-Argentina
    relationship - in a way that neither tiny Uruguay or Paraguay
    ever could.  Moreover, a fundamental tenet of Brazilian
    foreign policy is that Brazil should serve as the leader of
    South America.  If Chavez covets that role, however, then
    Brazil-Venezuela conflict within Mercosul is inevitable.  In

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    view of the above, dissension within Mercosul is likely to
    get worse before it gets better.

    What Does the Future Hold?
    --------------------------
    ¶9. (C) What might complicate the situation even further would
    be any USG move, in response to Montevideo's continuing
    veiled hints, to seek to initiate FTA talks with Uruguay.
    Such a step would enrage Brazil government officials, who
    would certainly see it as an effort to diminish GOB influence
    by splitting Mercosul.  Without a doubt, both Brazilian
    officials and the local media would be very vocal on this
    point.  That said, whether Brazil would take any significant
    actions in reply is another question.  With the FTAA already
    at an impasse (ref E), the GOB's ability to respond on that
    front is limited.  And given that Brazil has clearly made the
    success of the Doha Round its highest trade priority, it
    would seem counter-productive as well to retaliate in that
    forum.  The GOB could conceivably try to compensate for the
    "defection" of Uruguay by speeding efforts to upgrade Bolivia
    to full membership.  Adding Bolivia ) with all its
    uncertainties - to the club, however, would certainly lead to
    even less cohesion, especially while Brazil and the Morales
    government continue to spar over issues such as energy sector
    investment and access to natural gas.

    ¶10. (U) Post welcomes the opportunity to hear views from
    other concerned Mercosul posts and looks forward to
    contributing to any ongoing discussion.

    Chicola

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