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### Viewing cable 08TORONTO90, No Push for Elections as Canadians Focus on Local Issues

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08TORONTO90 | 2008-03-28 12:00 | 2011-04-28 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Consulate Toronto

`

    VZCZCXRO7378
    RR RUEHGA RUEHHA RUEHQU RUEHVC
    DE RUEHON #0090/01 0881200
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 281200Z MAR 08
    FM AMCONSUL TORONTO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2415
    INFO RUCNCAN/ALCAN COLLECTIVE

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TORONTO 000090

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON CA
    SUBJECT: No Push for Elections as Canadians Focus on Local Issues

    Sensitive But Unclassified - Please protect accordingly.

    ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Mission Canada reporting officers concur that,
    from the brink of defeat in the fall of 2007, Conservative Prime
    Minister Stephen Harper's government has established itself as a
    stable minority government, pushing through a relatively impressive
    policy agenda such as a renewed commitment to Canadian engagement in
    Afghanistan, Haiti and Darfur; domestic security measures such as
    the Omnibus crime bill and a refined security-certificate process;
    and significant tax cuts.   On March 25 Mission Canada reporting
    officers concluded that Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper's
    government draws its stability from different sources across the
    country.  Provincial governments and the populations they represent
    (except Ontario; Newfoundland and Labrador; and Nova Scotia) are
    either focused more on local issues or have established a relatively
    peaceful relationship with the Harper-led federal government.
    Across the country the federal Liberals-particularly Leader Stephane
    Dion-- are perceived to be weak, ineffectual, and incapable of
    forming an effective opposition, let alone a viable alternative to
    Harper's Conservatives.  Economic and environmental concerns tend to
    dominate voters' minds in eastern Canada, with crime a higher
    priority in the west.  This first country-wide DVC dialogue among
    reporting officers from eight Mission Canada posts reflected the
    wide variety of issues and diversity of provincial government
    configurations, illustrated the difficulty of generalizing political
    developments, and underscored the delicate balancing act the federal
    government faces, especially in a minority status.  END SUMMARY.

    ----------------------
    Mission Canada Confers
    ----------------------

    ¶2. (U) Mission Canada reporting officers on March 25 initiated a new
    monthly DVC forum to focus on political and economic issues by
    exchanging views and offering different local and provincial
    perspectives on national issues.  The kick-off topic was the
    perception of the performance of the Harper government so far, and
    prospects for a new federal election.  Reporting officers from all
    Canada posts took part, as well as representatives from WHA/CAN.

    ----------------------
    The Provinces Make Do
    ----------------------

    ¶3. (SBU) Across Canada, most provinces are relatively satisfied with
    Prime Minister Stephen Harper's leadership, or are so absorbed in
    their own provincial issues that a change in federal leadership is
    seen as unwanted and/or unnecessary.  Big picture national issues
    such as Afghanistan do not appear to have traction in the day-to-day
    provincial evaluations of the federal government's performance.

    ¶4. (SBU) Given PM Harper's roots in Western Canada, support for the
    Conservatives in Alberta and neighboring Saskatchewan remains high.
    Some ConGen Calgary contacts have complained that Harper's
    government is insufficiently accommodating on issues important to
    Western Canadians, such as emissions regulations and climate change.
     However, given the Liberal alternative, a significant reduction in
    support for the Conservatives is extremely unlikely, a trend
    reflected in the overwhelming victory of Alberta Premier Ed
    Stelmach's Progressive Conservative party on March 3, and the
    election win by center-right Saskatchewan Party Premier Brad Wall in
    November 2007.

    ¶5. (SBU) Further west in British Columbia, the flourishing economy
    and uniquely independent character of the BC Liberals in the
    provincial government have enabled them to establish a cooperative
    and generally positive relationship with the federal government.
    With the 2010 Olympics rapidly approaching, the provincial
    government is busy creating the fundamentals to solidify lasting
    economic growth, including the Pacific Gateway, and is implementing
    new programs that largely complement federal economic initiatives.
    Currently, there does not appear to be a groundswell of support in
    BC for change at the federal level.

    ¶6. (SBU) Dalton McGuinty's Ontario government, in contrast, has
    staked out policy priorities intentionally designed to contrast with
    the government in Ottawa.  The ongoing partisan spat between the
    Ontario Finance Minister Dwight Duncan and federal Finance Minister
    Jim Flaherty over Ontario's business tax policy is just one of an
    ongoing series of conflicts.  Targeted assistance to Ontario's
    ailing manufacturers is another major area of disagreement.
    Neither the Ontario government nor federal ministers have concealed
    their respective desires for different partners (Note: Prime
    Minister Stephen Harper and Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty appeared
    to have at least temporarily buried the hatchet on March 27 when
    they jointly  announced C$709 million in federal support for
    provincial assistance programs.  End Note).

    ¶7. (SBU) In Atlantic Canada, the long-standing sense of neglect
    compared to the rest of the country continues to varying degrees.
    Newfoundland and Labrador's Premier Danny Williams, although a
    Conservative himself, has vowed to campaign actively against the

    TORONTO 00000090  002 OF 003

    Harper government in the next federal election.  "Anyone but
    Conservative," is his battle cry.  Similarly, but with less vitriol,
    Nova Scotia's Rodney MacDonald (also a Conservative) has had
    problems with how PM Harper has treated his province, although there
    are recent signs of an incipient rapprochement between the two
    leaders.  In contrast, New Brunswick's Liberal Premier Shawn Graham
    has established a solid working relationship with the federal
    government.  Despite their misgivings about the federal government,
    absent a more competitive federal Liberal alternative, there is not
    a widespread appetite among Atlantic Canadians for a federal
    election at this time.

    ¶8. (SBU) In Quebec, home of significant Conservative breakthroughs
    in the 2006 federal election, PM Harper has been surprisingly
    successful.  His 2007 motion to recognize Quebec as a "nation within
    Canada" was a strategic victory that continues to work to his
    benefit.  Harper gets credit for delivering the programs he promised
    during the election campaign.  He has a politically pragmatic
    relationship with Premier Charest.  While the federal Liberals may
    still be strong in Montreal, in the rest of Quebec, a visceral
    distaste for Stephane Dion leaves the Conservatives as the only
    viable alternative to the Bloc Quebecois.

    -------------------------------
    Stephane Dion: Who is This Guy?
    -------------------------------

    ¶9. (SBU) Provincial contacts across the country have commented that
    Stephane Dion's leadership has been a disaster and that the Liberals
    are currently not in a position successfully to contest an election.
     Dion's perceived ineptness has proven to be a source of stability
    for the minority Harper government.  Conservative insiders in
    Vancouver and Toronto have noted that Dion is a "better" alternative
    from the Conservative perspective than any of the other potential
    Liberal leaders, who might provide stronger leadership in
    opposition.  The recent by-election victory of Liberal foreign
    affairs critic Bob Rae is a reminder that the federal Liberals have
    several high-profile, politically talented personalities who could
    credibly assume the party's leadership mantle upon Dion's departure.

    ¶10. (SBU) While merely unpopular in most of the country, Dion is
    still reviled as "traitor" in large parts of Quebec due to his past
    strident opposition of Quebec sovereignty, and, especially his role
    in the federal Clarity Act which sets the guidelines for any new
    Quebec referendum on secession.  By-election defeats and criticism
    of his Quebec "team" have contributed to the decline of the party in
    areas outside Montreal.

    ¶11. (SBU) Apart from Dion's leadership problems, the Federal
    Liberals might be financially unable effectively to contest an
    election if they were to bring the government down, contacts have
    noted.  Though Ottawa-based Liberal leaders have denied that the
    party is in financial trouble, several failed candidates from the
    2006 leadership race are still paying off debts resulting from the
    campaign (Note:  This week deputy Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff
    and Stephane Dion were both in Montreal independently fundraising
    for their separate campaign debts - the former asking C$1,000, and
    the latter C$100 per attendee.  End Note).

    -----------------------------
    Key Election Issues, Whenever
    -----------------------------

    ¶12. (SBU) Whenever the next federal election is held, different
    issues will come to the fore in each region of Canada. The economy
    will likely be the highest priority issue for Canadians in Atlantic
    Canada (economic and resource development); Quebec and Ontario
    (manufacturing slow-down); and Alberta and British Columbia
    (maintaining economic growth).  Crime is a key election issue for
    Manitobans and British Columbians.  Environmental issues are
    important to Quebecers, Ontarians, Manitobans, and British
    Columbians.  Social issues are important in Alberta (health,
    education, and affordable housing), Quebec (health, education, and
    immigration), and the Atlantic provinces (out-migration).

    ¶13. (SBU) Canadians seem to be universally fascinated with the U.S.
    Presidential election, with some Canadian political activists musing
    to us about how they would like to "volunteer" to work on a
    particular U.S. presidential campaign.  Many of our interlocutors
    across the country quickly change the subject from the prospects for
    a Canadian federal election to what is happening in the U.S.
    Presidential election.  We believe Canadians would by and large
    prefer to watch the U.S. election through to its conclusion before
    thinking about heading to their own polls to vote for the next
    Canadian federal government.

    ¶14. (SBU) COMMENT:  Across Canada, there is little appetite for an
    early federal election or significant desire for the fall of the
    Harper government.  Among the various key priority issues at the
    provincial level, it was striking that none of the posts cited
    border issues or WHTI as a major local concern.  This first

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    country-wide DVC dialogue among reporting officers from eight
    Mission Canada posts reflected the wide variety of issues and
    diversity of provincial government configurations, illustrated the
    difficulty of generalizing political developments, and underscored
    the delicate balancing act the federal government faces, especially
    in a minority status.  Canada is an immense country where the gaze
    of the population is as often focused southward on political and
    economic developments in the United States  -- particularly at this
    time given the U.S. presidential campaign -- as on issues with
    east-west resonance across Canada.  END COMMENT.

    NAY

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