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### Viewing cable 06MANAGUA2725, FSLN ACCORD WITH PRN PRESIDENT TALAVERA PROMISES

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06MANAGUA2725 | 2006-12-20 14:43 | 2011-06-01 08:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Managua

Appears in these articles:
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758456.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758467.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758468.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758464.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4103/la-embusa-y-el-gabinete-de-ortega
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4104/d-rsquo-escoto-en-onu-ldquo-un-desafio-de-ortega-a-ee-uu-rdquo
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4102/estrada-y-la-ldquo-doble-cara-rdquo-ante-ee-uu
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3966/la-ldquo-injerencia-rdquo-de-ee-uu-en-el-2006
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-23/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2758764.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-23/Mundo/NotaPrincipal/Mundo2758753.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4041/millones-de-dolares-sin-control-y-a-discrecion
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4040/la-ldquo-injerencia-rdquo-de-venezuela-en-2006
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4047/rodrigo-barreto-enviado-de-ldquo-vacaciones-rdquo
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2757239.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/NotaPrincipal/Mundo2746658.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2757244.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2746673.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3991/dra-yadira-centeno-desmiente-cable-diplomatico-eeuu
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3968/pellas-pronostico-a-eeuu-victoria-de-ortega-en-2006
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3967/barreto-era-ldquo-fuente-confiable-rdquo-para-eeuu

`

    VZCZCXRO0108
    PP RUEHLMC
    DE RUEHMU #2725/01 3541443
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 201443Z DEC 06
    FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8471
    INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 0877
    RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHDC PRIORITY
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAGUA 002725

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2016
    TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KDEM NU
    SUBJECT: FSLN ACCORD WITH PRN PRESIDENT TALAVERA PROMISES
    THE MOON, BUT WILL ORTEGA DELIVER?

    REF: A. MANAGUA 02662

         ¶B. MANAGUA 02059

    Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D).

    ¶1.  (C) Summary:  The September 15 accord that Sandinista
    National Liberation Front (FSLN) leader/President-elect
    Daniel Ortega signed with Nicaraguan Resistance Party (PRN)
    President Salvador Talavera includes the formation of a
    autonomous and decentralized National Peace and
    Reconciliation Council (CONAREP).  According to the
    agreement, CONAREP will receive at least 1% of the annual
    national budget.  Liberal Nicaraguan Alliance (ALN) chief of
    staff Edmundo Leal tells us that Talavera was "forced" to
    sign the accord with Ortega, while they recognize that his
    desertion probably cost ALN thousands of votes.     Leal
    warns us that the FSLN offer is extremely attractive to many
    Resistance leaders, especially those with no independent
    income.  The FSLN's promises are unrealistic, but even if the
    Sandinistas deliver on a fraction of the proposed accord,
    they will accomplish much more for the Resistance than
    previous governments.  Further, the agreement's offer to
    allow PRN members to run on the FSLN ticket for the 2008
    municipal elections could draw more Resistance members into
    the FSLN fold.  End Summary.

    AN OFFER TOO GOOD TO BELIEVE, BUT TOO GOOD TO REFUSE
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  - - - - - - - - -

    ¶2.  (C) On December 18, Eduardo Montealegre's chief of staff,
    Edmundo Leal, shared with poloffs a copy of the September 15
    accord that President-elect Daniel Ortega signed with PRN
    President Salvador Talavera.  Leal -- who maintains contact
    with Talavera and claims that Ortega offered Talavera the
    choice of a stiff jail sentence (for abusing his previous
    wife) or a "lucrative alliance" that would resolve Talavera's
    considerable personal financial debts -- noted that the
    accord includes the formation of an autonomous and
    decentralized National Peace and Reconciliation Council
    (CONAREP).  According to the agreement, CONAREP will receive
    at least 1% of the annual national budget.  An informal
    translation of the accord follows:

    Begin text (all unclassified): This current accord which Jose
    Daniel Ortega Saavedra, representing the Sandinista National
    Liberation Front, and Salvador Talavera Alaniz, representing
    the Nicaraguan Resistance Party, aims to consolidate peace
    and achieve economic development within the framework of
    equity and solidarity with our country's impoverished sectors.

    Through this accord those individuals involved in
    reconciliation -- the Nicaraguan Resistance Party and the
    Sandinista National Liberation Front -- will work together to
    consolidate peace, an indispensable foundation for
    development, and to foster investor confidence in our
    country.  For all these reasons we agree:

    First: We promise that the Nicaraguan family will never
    resort to violent means to settle its differences, thereby
    ensuring that there will never again be another civil war,
    nor a mandatory draft, nor permit Nicaragua to become objects
    of foreign incidents that lead us to armed conflict between
    our Nicaraguan brothers.

    Second: Both parties involved in this reconciliation promise
    that there will never again be (property) seizures, nor
    ration cards.

    Third: The Sandinista National Liberation Front, whether or
    not it wins these free and democratic elections on November
    5, is committed to create a National Peace and Reconciliation
    Council (CONAREP).  This National Council will be established
    as an autonomous and decentralized institution with financial
    and legal independence, with unlimited duration, and the
    ability to contract and obtain all types of obligations,
    loans and donations.

    The National Council will receive the budgetary support
    required to achieve its objectives and activities, and will
    be allocated at least 1% of the national budget.

    The National Council will include eleven members -- six
    appointed by the Nicaraguan Resistance Party and five by the
    FSLN.  The Nicaraguan Resistance Party will name the

    MANAGUA 00002725  002 OF 003

    Executive President of the National Commission, who will hold
    the rank of the Secretary of the Presidency.  Similarly,
    there will be Regional, Departmental, and Municipal
    Secretaries, who will be named by the National Peace and

    SIPDIS
    Reconciliation Council or by the National Executive President.

    The National Peace and Reconciliation Council will channel
    and allocate jointly with the National Government the
    necessary funds to develop, among other areas, the following
    programs:

    --Investment in education, special programs to ensure
    school-aged children attend school; nationwide construction
    of sports facilities and sports.

    --At least 1,000 scholarships per year to study in public and
    private universities, as well as 25% of the scholarships for
    study abroad.

    --Basic health care and special programs to reduce infant
    malnutrition and maternal deaths, especially among young and
    single mothers.

    --Review, legalization, and titling of properties, and the
    fulfillment of commitments that are pending to ex-Resistance
    combatants, in accordance with the peace accords.

    --Allocate at least 15% of national budget's allocation for
    the development and diversification of agricultural
    production, ranching, agro-business, fishing and forestry to
    this end.

    --An urban and rural social housing program that includes new
    construction and home improvements.  At least 15% of the
    national budget's allocation for this area will be channeled
    to benefit the people proposed by CONAREP.

    --Enforcement, review, and delivery of pensions, as well as
    the expansion of Social Security to benefit all wounded war
    veterans, their orphans who are under 18 years old, and
    widows of former Resistance combatants with a valid signature
    of CONAREP national or departmental representatives.

    --Expansion and modernization of basic public services,
    potable water, electricity, and telecommunications.

    --Improvements, construction and maintenance of roadways to
    support agronomic production.

    --Concessions for water, air, and roadways at the local,
    regional, and Central American levels, in accordance with
    petitions presented by CONAREP.

    --Personal security and private property guarantees for all
    Nicaraguan residents.

    --Review of current laws to decree new laws or reform current
    legislation to facilitate economic and social development in
    Nicaragua.

    --At least 15% of the national budget that is earmarked for
    housing, health, primary, secondary, technical and
    university-level education, property titling and delivery,
    pensions, agricultural technology, roads and highways,
    improvement of basic service will be allocated to programs
    for individuals and relatives of those involved in the
    reconciliation.

    Fourth:  Both parties to the reconciliation are unequivocally
    committed to elevating this autonomous institution to the
    level of an entity or institution with constitutional
    authority, reaffirming as such, that a national Resistance
    Party member will preside over the organization.

    Fifth: If the FSLN alliance is the new Nicaraguan Government,
    it will adhere to its commitment to allocate the necessary
    funds to implement the aforementioned programs, or any others
    that the CONAREP recommends.  In the event the funds cannot
    be included in the Budget Law, the Presidency of the Republic
    will take care of providing the funds required for its
    (CONAREP's) functioning.

    Sixth: Both parties are committed to respect the Electoral
    Law, which guarantees the immobility of all PRN candidates

    MANAGUA 00002725  003 OF 003

    running in the national elections that will be held November
    ¶5.  The same applies to preserving the Nicaraguan Resistance
    Party's legal status.

    Tenth (Seventh): (Note: The document skips Seventh, Eighth,
    Ninth.  Leal later clarified that Salvador Talavera told him
    it was a "typo"):  Both the FSLN and PRN parties involved in
    reconciliation will work together so that the Nicaraguan
    Resistance Party obtains at least one position each in the
    Supreme Court, the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE), the
    Controller General, and the sub-director of the Human Rights
    Defense Office as soon as vacancies open.  Similarly, the PRN
    will enjoy participation in national, departmental or
    municipal levels of these entities.

    Signed in Managua on September (national month) 15, 2006.
    End Text.

    RESISTANCE LEADERS STRAYING FROM THE FOLD?
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  - - -

    ¶3.  (C) While Leal is skeptical that the FSLN will
    "deliver" on all of its promises to the PRN, he fears the
    agreement could attract a number of PRN members to the FSLN;
    at least many would be curious to test the agreement.   He
    warned that some of the other ALN-affiliated Resistance
    leaders are "straying" and could end up endorsing the FSLN,
    citing as one possible "recruit" Salvador Talavera's brother
    Jose Angel (The Jackal).  For Leal, the PRN was never a
    serious party, and its discordant members behave more like
    mercenaries than politicians.  He warned that the risk lies
    in the FSLN's ability to deliver on its promises, while the
    "democratic" parties abandoned the Resistance once they won
    office.

    ¶4.  (C) Leal recounted that when he met recently with
    Salvador Talavera, FSLN Assembly Deputy Edwin Castro's legal
    adviser Alejandro Romero had accompanied Talavera.  They
    informed Leal that because Talavera intends to retain his
    Assembly seat (his alternate is PRN member Oscar Sobalvarro
    (Comandante Ruben), who is loyal to the ALN), a token PRN
    member will preside over CONAREP, while Salvador runs it
    "behind the scenes."  Romero has also been selected to work
    in the new entity, said Leal.

    COMMENT
    - - - -

    ¶5.  (C) Much of the PRN's leadership is fractious and
    contentious, and indeed the party functions more as an
    interest group than a political party.  Salvador Talavera's
    desertion of the ALN for Ortega spun the PRN into further
    disarray.  Many ALN and PRN contacts believe that Talavera's
    betrayal cost the ALN thousands of votes to the rival Liberal
    Constitutional Party (PLC), especially in deep-rural,
    pro-Liberal areas of the country.  The FSLN-PRN accord is an
    unrealistic, campaign boondoggle, but given Nicaragua's
    democratic-leaning governments that followed Daniel Ortega's
    disastrous 1980s regime never delivered on their ambitious
    campaign promises to the Resistance, even if the FSLN
    delivers a fraction of the proposed accord, it will
    accomplish much more for the Resistance than previous
    governments.  And, if the FSLN achieves more, its success
    will draw new converts.

    ¶6.  (C) According to Luis Fley (Ref. A) -- another PRN leader
    associated with the ALN who has complained to us that ALN
    leader Eduardo Montealegre does not "take him into account"
    -- the FSLN has already offered PRN leaders the chance to run
    on the FSLN ticket for the 2008 municipal elections in areas
    where the PRN enjoys a strong base of support.  Part of the
    FSLN's success in the 2004 municipal elections can be
    attributed to its ability to recruit highly respected
    non-Sandinistas to run for office.  If the Sandinistas resort
    to a similar tactic in 2008, the FSLN could further
    consolidate its control over municipal governments, which it
    would use as a springboard for the 2011 presidential
    elections.
    TRIVELLI

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