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### Viewing cable 08SANSALVADOR1139, FMLN VP CANDIDATE SANCHEZ CEREN: HARD-LINER'S SOFT

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08SANSALVADOR1139 | 2008-09-26 22:09 | 2011-06-17 23:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy San Salvador
Appears in these articles: http://www.wikileaks.elfaro.net/es/201106/notas/4412/

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    VZCZCXYZ0000
    PP RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHSN #1139/01 2702209
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 262209Z SEP 08
    FM AMEMBASSY SAN SALVADOR
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0135
    INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0349
    RUEHUB/USINT HAVANA 0030

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 001139

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/24/2018
    TAGS: PGOV PREL ES
    SUBJECT: FMLN VP CANDIDATE SANCHEZ CEREN: HARD-LINER'S SOFT
    SELL

    Classified By: The Ambassador, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

    ¶1. (C) Summary: FMLN VP candidate Salvador Sanchez Ceren told
    us the (left-wing) FMLN would, if they win the March 2009
    elections, reprioritize domestic spending to social needs
    like health and education, would maintain CAFTA-DR, and not
    toy with the dollarized Salvadoran economy at the beginning
    of their term.  (Comment: It is only fair to conclude that an
    FMLN government will want to reconsider dollarization, and
    other important questions, after they feel more entrenched in
    power.  End Comment.)  He said that while the leading
    Salvadoran business group was hostile to Mauricio Funes'
    presidential candidacy, the FMLN had broad acceptance in
    smaller Salvadoran enterprises.  Sanchez Ceren said the large
    number of Salvadorans in the U.S. would be a powerful
    incentive to maintain good bilateral ties, but this would not
    exclude relations with other countries like Cuba or
    Venezuela.  He acknowledged his polarizing role in Salvadoran
    politics and said El Salvador must look to the future to
    address El Salvador's problems, not dwell on conflicts of the
    past.  He welcomed recent poll results suggesting Salvadoran
    voters expect Funes to win the presidential election and
    expressed concern about possible voting irregularities and
    post-election violence.  He acknowledged the controversy over
    his relative power vis-a-vis Funes, but said Funes would
    dominate a "presidentialist" system if he won.  End Summary.

    ¶2. (C) DCM and PolCouns met with FMLN Vice-Presidential
    candidate (and head of the FMLN's bloc in the Legislative
    Assembly) Salvador Sanchez Ceren, his wife Rosa Margarita
    Villalta de Sanchez, and FMLN Legislative Assembly Deputy
    Hugo Martinez September 24.  Sanchez Ceren said the FMLN
    intended to refocus GOES investment in the country with
    increased emphasis on health, education, and agriculture.  He
    said the government's "Red Solidaria" (welfare program) was
    valuable and should be continued, with a modified focus.  He
    added that there was untapped potential in idle land for
    expansion of the agricultural sector.

    ¶3. (C) Sanchez Ceren then asserted that both the FMLN and
    presidential candidate Mauricio Funes recognized the need for
    stability in order to keep and attract investment, both
    foreign and domestic.  He said the FMLN would keep the
    CAFTA-DR trade agreement and maintain the U.S. Dollar as El
    Salvador's legal tender.  He said that statements in prior
    campaigns favoring the return of the Colon were no longer
    applicable, since the country had five years of experience
    using the Dollar.  A return to the Colon would not be
    possible in the short term, though he did not rule it out.
    Commenting on recent public disagreements between Funes and
    others in the FMLN (most recently General Coordinator Medardo
    Gonzalez), Sanchez Ceren noted power in the Salvadoran system
    is concentrated in the presidency, thus discounting those
    differences.  Sanchez Ceren said that while the leadership of
    ANEP, the Salvadoran National Association for Private
    Enterprise, was hostile to Funes' campaign, they did not
    represent all Salvadoran business interests.  Sanchez Ceren
    and Martinez said the Funes campaign and the FMLN had ongoing
    contact with many smaller businesses that were not members of
    ANEP and that were supporting the campaign and prepared to
    work with a Funes government.

    ¶4. (C) Sanchez Ceren noted the large number of Salvadoran
    citizens living in the United States, suggesting this was a
    powerful reason for the FMLN to maintain close relations with
    the United States.  Sanchez Ceren and Martinez welcomed the
    announcement that Temporary Protected Status for Salvadorans
    in the U.S. had been extended.  Sanchez Ceren said FMLN
    foreign policy would be broadly based on principles of good
    relations with other countries (including Cuba and Venezuela)
    and honoring commitments.  Using the country's trade
    agreements and dollarized economy as an example, he said that
    would be the starting point for policy decisions, suggesting
    these agreements will remain in place even if certain aspects
    of CAFTA-DR would need to be renegotiated.  He suggested it
    would be folly to discard the advances El Salvador has made
    since the 1992 peace accords.  Martinez noted that there are
    many who selectively doubt the FMLN's policy assertions,
    acknowledging the certainty of an Iraq pullout, but dismiss
    other promises that cannot be demonized.  "We will keep our
    promises," he said.

    ¶5. (C) Sanchez Ceren acknowledged he is a polarizing figure
    in Salvadoran politics.  Given the country's history, he
    said, that should not surprise anyone.  He said the solution
    to resolving this polarization was to look forward, not back,
    and for Salvadoran political parties to set aside historical
    battles and address the country's current needs.  Sanchez
    Ceren and Martinez welcomed poll results from the Francisco
    Gavidia University which showed respondents expect Funes to
    win the election over Avila by 16.6 percent (47.8 Funes, 31.2
    Avila, with 19.7 percent either not responding or saying they
    don't know.)  (Note: The question did not address voting
    intentions.  End Note.)  They acknowledged that the poll that
    matters will be held March 15 and expressed worries about
    potential voting fraud and post-election violence in the
    event of a close result.  They welcomed planned monitoring
    missions by the European Union, OAS, and others, and were
    supportive of the NDI-led comprehensive monitoring and quick
    count program.

    ¶6. (C) Pressed on his views towards Cuba, Sanchez Ceren noted
    that, because of the assistance provided to rebel forces
    during the war, including efforts to secure a peace
    agreement, he had a special appreciation for Cuba and the
    Cuban government.  He said he welcomed recent changes taking
    place in Cuba and said the FMLN would establish relations
    with Havana if it wins the election.  Martinez noted El
    Salvador was the only Central American country without
    bilateral relations with Cuba.  DCM noted that some countries

    (e.g. Chile, Brazil, and Panama) had managed to maintain good
    relations with the United States and Havana, but others, such
    as Bolivia, had been unable to strike the right balance.

    ¶7. (C) Comment: Sanchez Ceren was, as expected, following the
    script regarding positions on the FMLN's continued good
    relations with the U.S. if Funes wins.  In areas where we are
    likely to disagree (e.g., Cuba) his acknowledgment of those
    differences was direct.  We are struck by the irony of
    Sanchez Ceren commenting on the need for tolerance at the end
    of a week where media featured his having ordered summary
    executions of accused infiltrators during the civil war.  It
    is still an open question whether he or Funes calls the FMLN
    shots.  Econ Counselor reported separately that he was with
    other FMLN members the same day who were using the talking
    point regarding the GOES being a "presidentialist" system.
    Finally, Sanchez Ceren saying what the FMLN will not do at
    the beginning of their term, e.g., ending dollarization,
    leads us to conclude that dollarization, and much more,
    probably would be on the table later on.
    GLAZER

    =======================CABLE ENDS============================

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