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### Viewing cable 07NICOSIA120, CYPRUS OIL AND GAS LICENSING RIGHTS CHALLENGED BY

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07NICOSIA120 | 2007-02-08 15:40 | 2011-06-04 08:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Nicosia
Appears in these articles: http://www.tanea.gr

`

    VZCZCXYZ0000
    OO RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHNC #0120/01 0391540
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 081540Z FEB 07
    FM AMEMBASSY NICOSIA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7510
    INFO RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA IMMEDIATE 4860
    RUEHTH/AMEMBASSY ATHENS IMMEDIATE 3793
    RUEHBK/AMEMBASSY BANGKOK IMMEDIATE 0572
    RUEHLB/AMEMBASSY BEIRUT IMMEDIATE 4249
    RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN IMMEDIATE 0665
    RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO IMMEDIATE 0215
    RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON IMMEDIATE 1271
    RUEHNY/AMEMBASSY OSLO IMMEDIATE 0203
    RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS IMMEDIATE 0593
    RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS IMMEDIATE
    RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC IMMEDIATE

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L NICOSIA 000120

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2017
    TAGS: EPET ETRD PGOV PREL EINV ECON TU CY
    SUBJECT: CYPRUS OIL AND GAS LICENSING RIGHTS CHALLENGED BY
    TURKEY

    REF: 06 NICOSIA 1361

    Classified By: Ambassador Ronald Schlicher.  Reasons 1.4 b and d.

    ¶1. (C) Summary: The GoC intends to go forward with its first
    licensing round for the exploration and exploitation of
    potential offshore oil and natural gas deposits, despite
    strong criticism and thinly-veiled threats from the
    Government of Turkey and the Turkish Cypriot leadership.  The
    GoC plans to auction off 11 offshore blocks lying to the
    south and southwest of Cyprus within Cyprus's Exclusive
    Economic Zone as delimited in agreements with Egypt (2003),
    Lebanon (2007) and Israel (under negotiation).  None of the
    blocks fall between Cyprus and Turkey or off the coast of the
    area administered by Turkish Cypriots.  Nevertheless, the
    GoT, which unlike the rest of the world community does not
    recognize the GoC, has strongly objected to the auction,
    arguing that the GoC does not have the right to enter
    international agreements without Turkish Cypriot consent,
    that the Turkish Cypriot community should share in any
    proceeds from Cypriot natural resources, and that any
    delineation of the continental shelf in the Eastern
    Mediterranean should include all the countries in the region.
     According to the Turkish Cypriot press, Turkish Cypriot
    authorities granted permission five years ago to the Turkish
    Petroleum Incorporated Company (TPAS) to explore for oil and
    natural gas off Cyprus's north coast, although actual
    exploration had yet to begin.  UK officials have told us
    privately that, while none of the current blocks impinge on
    the territorial waters of its Sovereign Base Areas (SBA),
    they do impinge on the SBA's continental shelf.  While the UK
    is likely to find a way to note this publicly, the UK is
    unlikely to object to the process, having concluded that it
    will not affect its military operations.  End summary.

    First Licensing Round to Run February 15 to July 16
    --------------------------------------------- ------

    ¶2.  (U)  On January 25, the Ministry of Commerce briefed the
    diplomatic community on its latest plans to auction off the
    oil and natural gas exploration and exploitation rights for
    11 offshore blocks located to the south and southwest of
    Cyprus.  (English language slides from this presentation,
    including a rough map of the blocks, are available on the
    Ministry's website www.mcit.gov.cy.)   The 11 blocks cover
    approximately 60,000 square kilometers and are located in
    Cyprus's Exclusive Economic Zone as negotiated in agreements
    with Egypt (2003) and Lebanon (2007).  The exact border of
    two of the blocks will depend on the outcome of GoC-Israeli
    negotiations reportedly under way.  None of the blocks fall
    between Cyprus and Turkey or off the coast of the area
    administered by Turkish Cypriots. (Note:  According to the
    MFA, the GoC opted for negotiating EEZ agreements rather that
    continental shelf agreements due to the  relative ease of
    concluding the former, even though the latter would appear to
    provide more legal certainty. End note.)  The GoC has hired
    Beicip Freilab, a subsidiary of the French Petroleum
    Institute, to be its outside consultant for the auction.
    Last year the Norwegian firm Petroleum Geo-Services (PGS)
    completed seismic surveys of the region, which interested
    companies can purchase from the GoC.

    ¶3.  (U) It is too early to determine the extent of the
    possible reserves, and GoC officials are being careful not to
    speculate.  Press reports, however, suggest that preliminary,
    unsubstantiated information suggests that there may be as
    many as six to eight billion barrels of oil (or the
    equivalent in natural gas) with an overall value of USD 400
    billion -- although critics have dismissed this as wishful
    thinking and note that the relative depth of any likely
    deposits will make drilling extremely expensive.

    ¶4.  (U) The first licensing round will officially open to
    interested companies on February 15 and close on July 16.
    GoC officials have suggested that it may take as long as six
    months to evaluate all applications.  Winning bidders will be
    invited to enter into production-sharing agreements that are
    likely to be signed shortly before the February 2008
    presidential elections.

    ¶5.  (U) Representatives of the Ministry of Commerce held
    briefings on the planned auctions for interested companies
    /
    /
    /
    /
    /

    November 20 in London and January 30 in Houston.  Both
    presentations were reportedly well-attended.  Cyprus also
    promoted the auction at the February 1-2 NAPE Expo in
    Houston.  The Embassy has informed U.S. companies about the
    auction through its website, the U.S. Export Assistance
    Center in Houston, and through other FCS channels.  According
    to MoC officials, several U.S. companies have shown interest,
    although none have approached the Embassy directly.  MoC
    officials have privately dismissed press speculation on which
    companies are likely to compete as wildly inaccurate.

    Opposition from Turkey and the Turkish Cypriots
    --------------------------------------------- --

    ¶6.  (SBU) The Turkish Government and the Turkish Cypriot
    administration have strongly denounced the agreements with
    Egypt and Lebanon and the planned auction.  Both the GoT and
    Turkish Cypriots have publicly claimed:

    -- that the Government of Cyprus does "not represent the
    island as a whole.  Consequently neither the legislation
    adopted nor the bilateral agreements concluded by the Greek
    Cypriot Administration have any effect."  This stance is
    based on the GOT policy -- rejected by the international
    community -- that the GOC is not the sovereign authority on
    the island.

    -- the Turkish Cypriot community has a right to Cyprus's
    natural resources and should share in any proceeds from
    potential oil and gas deposits.

    ¶7. (SBU) The GoT has also claimed that any delineation of the
    continental shelf in a "semi-enclosed sea" like the Eastern
    Mediterranean should not be concluded bilaterally but
    multilaterally taking into account the interests of all the
    countries in the region.  Consequently, the GoT has demarched
    Lebanon and Egypt over their agreements with Cyprus and asked
    the former not to ratify its January 2007 EEZ agreement with
    Cyprus, sent (pre-scheduled) navy vessels to patrol the sea
    south of Cyprus, and called on companies to respect Turkish
    sensitivities and refrain from participating in Cyprus's oil
    and gas exploration.

    ¶8. (U) Following Turkey's statements, the Turkish Cypriot
    press also announced that, in clear contradiction to the
    putative principles at play, the Turkish Cypriot "Council of
    Ministers" had given permission five years ago to the Turkish
    Petroleum Incorporated Company (TPAS) to begin exploring for
    oil and gas off the "TRNC" coast.  While actual exploration
    had yet to start, TPAS would now accelerate its preparations.
     TPAS, which according to the press lacks the technical
    capability needed for deep sea drilling, was reportedly
    looking to subcontract the work to a major international
    company.

    UK Bases Have Issues, but HMG Unlikely to Oppose Auction
    --------------------------------------------- -----------

    ¶9. (C) A UK High Commission Official told us that the UK,
    having determined that the licensing round would not
    negatively affect its military operations at its two
    Sovereign Base Areas (SBA) in Cyprus, was very unlikely to
    object to the auction or place any obstacles in the auction's
    way, although technically some of the blocks may impinge upon
    the SBA's continental shelf.  (Indeed, the UK has been
    unequivocal in its statements acknowledging the GoC's legal
    rights). Consistent with its unilateral declaration
    accompanying the Treaty of Establishment of the Republic of
    Cyprus, (under which the UK pledged not to introduce
    commercial activities into the SBA and to pass all mineral
    rights to the GoC) the UK was not interested in any proceeds
    from the oil and natural gas.  Opposing the GoC's
    exploitation of potential deposits in the SBA's continental
    shelf would also be politically damaging and further
    undermine the already weak support for the bases in Greek
    Cypriot public opinion.  As a result, the UK would find a way
    to note its rights concerning the SBA's continental shelf
    without opposing the auction or the winning bidders' ability
    to exercise their exploration and exploitation rights.  The
    UK would object, however, if the GoC were to auction of any
    areas within 6 miles of the SBA coastline.  (Currently the
    nearest block falls 6 miles from the SBA.  While insisting on
    its right to expand the SBA's territorial waters to 12 miles
    at a later date, the SBA currently claims only three.)

    Comment
    -------

    ¶10.  (C) The GoC's plans appear to be well within Cyprus's
    legal rights.  While the GoT may not have a legal leg to
    stand on, its political opposition has the potential to
    sabotage the auction by scaring off many serious bidders.
    Most of the major international energy companies are already
    active in Turkey.  Why risk a sure thing in Turkey to pursue
    unproven reserves in Cyprus?  The GoC's timing of the auction
    also appears to have a political dimension, since it would
    allow contracts to be signed shortly before next year's
    Cypriot presidential elections.  A successful auction would
    give Papadopoulos an electoral boost, and further distract
    attention from his failure to move the ball forward on the
    Cyprus problem.  Nevertheless, as is often the case with the
    larger Cyprus issue, he is unwilling to explore any political
    compromises that could help blunt Turkish opposition and
    ensure the auction's success, instead doggedly insisting on
    the GoC's legal rights.  Like most controversies on the
    island, this dispute is in essence a microcosm of the larger
    Cyprus problem and further demonstrates the zero-sum
    mentality that dominates thinking here.  We continue to note
    publicly that the Government of Cyprus obviously has the
    right to enter into international agreements, but that the
    issue illustrates the essential point that the potential
    deposits be used in a way that enhances prospects for
    reunification of the island.  Moreover, any disputes over the
    issues involved should be dealt with through peaceful, legal
    means.  In short, this dispute once again highlights the need
    for a comprehensive solution to the Cyprus problem.  We will
    also continue to inform U.S. companies about this opportunity
    and urge them to do the proper due diligence, as we do with
    all projects.
    SCHLICHER

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