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### Viewing cable 08MOSCOW3380, C) OIL TRADERS: PIPELINE EXPORTS TO EUROPE STILL \

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08MOSCOW3380 | 2008-11-24 06:35 | 2010-12-01 21:30 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Moscow

`

    VZCZCXRO7650
    PP RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSR
    DE RUEHMO #3380/01 3290635
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 240635Z NOV 08
    FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0848
    INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
    RHMFISS/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

` `

    2008-11-24 06:35:00	08MOSCOW3380	Embassy Moscow	CONFIDENTIAL	08MOSCOW2632|08MOSCOW2880	VZCZCXRO7650\
    PP RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSR\
    DE RUEHMO #3380/01 3290635\
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH\
    P 240635Z NOV 08\
    FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW\
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0848\
    INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY\
    RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY\
    RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY\
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY\
    RHMFISS/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY	C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSCOW 003380 \
     \
    SIPDIS \
     \
    DEPT FOR EUR/RUS, FOR EEB/ESC/IEC GALLOGLY AND WRIGHT \
    EUR/CARC, SCA (GALLAGHER, SUMAR) \
    DOE FOR HEGBURG, EKIMOFF \
     \
    E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2018 \
    TAGS: EPET ENRG ECON PREL RS
    SUBJECT: (C) OIL TRADERS: PIPELINE EXPORTS TO EUROPE STILL \
    OPAQUE; SEABORNE TRADE MORE COMMERCIAL \
     \
    REF: A. MOSCOW 2880 \
         ¶B. MOSCOW 2632 \
     \
    Classified By: Econ MC Eric T. Schultz for reasons 1.4 (b/d) \
     \
    ------- \
    SUMMARY \
    ------- \
     \
    ¶1. (C) The oil trading business in Russia has long been \
    opaque, benefiting politically connected firms such as the \
    secretive oil trading firm Gunvor.  Contacts tell us, \
    however, that the business has lately become more transparent \
    because seaborne trade is now largely conducted via \
    commercial tenders and terms.  They caution, however, that \
    pipeline exports to Europe remain problematic.  Shell's oil \
    trading manager (protect), for instance, told us he believes \
    the recent supply reduction to the Czech Republic (ref A) was \
    politically coordinated.  To the extent that a shift toward \
    greater transparency has taken hold, it is another example of \
    the role of international commerce and finance in forcing \
    Russian businesses to behave commercially.  End summary. \
     \
    -------------------------- \
    RUSSIAN OIL TRADING OPAQUE \
    -------------------------- \
     \
    ¶2. (SBU) Oil traders at major Western companies explained to \
    us recently that the market for physical oil trades is very \
    developed globally and has two segments.  One is comprised of \
    major international oil companies who trade oil largely to \
    optimize their own global operations -- to ensure the right \
    amounts of oil are transferred to the right facilities at the \
    lowest cost.  The other is comprised of companies such as \
    Glencore, Vitol, and others who serve as intermediaries \
    simply trying to make money buying and selling oil using \
    their marketing, shipping, or risk tolerance advantage. \
     \
    ¶3. (C) According to these experts, oil trading in Russia has \
    had a reputation for secretive deals involving intermediary \
    companies with unknown owners and beneficiaries.  Oil exports \
    from state-owned or state-influenced oil companies have \
    reportedly been funneled through favored oil traders, \
    potentially yielding billions of dollars of profits for these \
    companies.  Of particular note in the Russian oil trading \
    business is the Swiss firm Gunvor.  The company is rumored to \
    be one of Putin's sources of undisclosed wealth, and is owned \
    by Gennady Timchenko, who is rumored to be a former KGB \
    colleague of Putin's. \
     \
    ¶4. (C) Political activist Alexei Navalny, who has sued Gunvor \
    and several Russian oil companies for information regarding \
    their oil trading practices (ref B), estimates that Gunvor \
    may control up to 50% of total Russian oil exports.  He and \
    his lawyer told us recently that it is impossible to know the \
    extent of Gunvor's penetration of the market, however, \
    because the companies involved refuse to disclose this \
    information.  (Note: Gunvor claims in its glossy but \
    uninformative brochure that it "handles a third of Russia's \
    seaborne oil exports."  End note.)  As Navalny has \
    discovered, verifiable information on the volumes and terms \
    of oil trades is very difficult to come by. \
     \
    ---------------------------- \
    BUT BECOMING MORE COMMERCIAL \
    ---------------------------- \
     \
    ¶5. (C) Managers at two western oil companies, however, \
    explained to us recently that oil trading in Russia has taken \
    a welcome turn toward greater transparency thanks to open \
    tenders for seaborne exports.  Demetrios Anyfantakis \
    (protect), the General Manager of oil trading for BP \
    Russia/CIS, told us in a recent meeting that oil trading via \
    Russian seaports is now, in his view, "completely \
    commercial."  Anyfantakis, explained that during the last \
    year, and especially since Medvedev's inauguration, there has \
    been a deliberate and successful push by the state to ensure \
    transparency and commercial terms for most of the oil \
    exported from Russia via ports. \
     \
    ¶6. (C) Anyfantakis claimed his view is not just conjecture. \
    He said it comes directly from hard numbers and evidence that \
    he sees from his participation in tenders by Rosneft, Lukoil, \
    and other major Russian oil companies.  He said that while \
     \
    MOSCOW 00003380  002 OF 003 \
     \
     \
    Gunvor rose based on the "administrative support" of the GOR, \
    the government came to realize it could no longer promote \
    Gunvor at the expense of, for example, state-owned Rosneft \
    and Gazpromneft.  Anyfantakis said he believes the trend \
    toward greater transparency in seaborne exports will continue \
    and he welcomed Navalny's lawsuit toward that end. \
     \
    ¶7. (C) Dave Chapman (protect), General Director of oil \
    trading for Shell Russia, painted a similar picture of oil \
    trading in Russia, calling seaborne trade "open and \
    transparent."  He added that domestic trading, while \
    depending on middlemen, is now also largely commercial. \
    Chapman told us the Russian oil trading market is among the \
    most difficult in the world, but that it also offers good \
    opportunities and that Shell has built a "healthy business" \
    here.  He said he has seen great changes in the 1 1/2 years \
    he has been in his current job, and suggested that much of \
    the change has come as a result of the government's push for \
    greater transparency in the economy as a whole.  He added \
    that he believes this push has largely been driven by the \
    financing needs of the state-owned companies. \
     \
    ¶8. (C) Chevron's Mike Ryan (protect), a London-based trader \
    who handles the company's trade in Russian/CIS oil, was less \
    impressed by the degree of transparency in the business, even \
    for seaborne oil exports.  He told us recently that while \
    there are more open tenders and more participants for \
    seaborne exports, "the same firms seem to often win."  He \
    suggested that favored firms may get inside information and a \
    "second chance" to bid.  Ryan agreed, however, that there has \
    been a trend toward greater transparency, but cautioned that \
    it is far from an "open and commercial" market.  He \
    highlighted Rosneft as a company that has evolved toward \
    greater transparency, and Surgutneftegaz (another reported \
    source of Putin's illicit wealth) as a company that has not. \
     \
    ------------------------------------------ \
    PIPELINE EXPORTS TO EUROPE STILL A PROBLEM \
    ------------------------------------------ \
     \
    ¶9. (C) All three company representatives noted, however, that \
    the trend toward greater transparency stops with seaborne \
    trade.  They all said Russian oil exports to Europe through \
    pipelines, especially through the southern Druzhba pipeline, \
    is still a very opaque business.  Anyfantakis said pipeline \
    exports, in general, are inherently more political than \
    exports from ports, and that the trade through southern \
    Druzhba is so opaque that "no one knows who is getting what." \
     Ryan said many in the business "wonder what goes on between \
    buyers and sellers" along that route. \
     \
    ¶10. (C) As an example, Chapman specifically cited the recent \
    oil supply reductions from Russia to the Czech Republic (ref \
    A).  He said that despite claims by officials that \
    "middlemen" were the problem, he did not believe that to be \
    the case.  He said producers generally offer their oil using \
    formulas that include some premium on top of a base price, \
    depending on the export market.  He explained that just prior \
    to the supply reduction to the Czech Republic (where Shell \
    has a stake in a refinery), all producers demanded the exact \
    same premium, $1.25 per barrel, which he said was 4 to 5 \
    times the previous figure for that route.  He believed this \
    price increase was coordinated, and resulted in the \
    re-routing of oil exports away from the Czech Republic. \
     \
    ¶11. (C) Chapman said that in the case of the Czech Republic, \
    the refineries involved had access to other supplies, but \
    that there was indeed an additional cost associated with \
    obtaining alternate supplies.  He said similar demands for \
    higher premiums have occurred with regard to deliveries to a \
    German refinery partly owned by Shell, but that the refinery \
    had more limited access to alternatives.  In such cases, \
    Chapman explained, managers have to decide whether to run \
    refineries at sub-optimal levels, or pay the higher costs. \
     \
    ¶12. (C) Chapman also noted that oil exports to Hungary, by \
    Transneft decree, must go through "a certain intermediary" \
    (Gunvor), which adds one dollar to each barrel.  He said in a \
    competitive market, by contrast, an oil trader might add \
    anywhere from five to 20 cents "maximum" to the price of a \
    barrel of oil. \
     \
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    COMMENT \
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    ¶13. (C) Oil traders play an important role in the market, \
    helping provide liquidity and optimizing the operations of \
    oil refiners and producers.  However, while it appears that \
    the GOR has realized that the more transparent and commercial \
    the trading business, the better it is for Russia's oil \
    sector, it unfortunately has not decided to apply this \
    realization uniformly.  Greed, corruption, and geopolitical \
    concerns still trump efficiency, especially with regard to \
    certain export routes to Europe and with regard to certain \
    connected oil traders, such as Gunvor.  End comment. \
    BEYRLE \

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