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### Viewing cable 08SOFIA672, BULGARIA'S NEXT PRIME MINISTER

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08SOFIA672 | 2008-10-22 07:18 | 2011-05-26 12:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Sofia
Appears in these articles: http://www.bivol.bg/wlborisov.html http://novinar.bg/?act=galleries&do=detail&rec=1&pic=10469#galblock

`

    VZCZCXRO1035
    RR RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
    DE RUEHSF #0672/01 2960718
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    R 220718Z OCT 08
    FM AMEMBASSY SOFIA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5469
    INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 000672

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2018
    TAGS: PGOV BU
    SUBJECT: BULGARIA'S NEXT PRIME MINISTER

    Classified By: Ambassador Nancy McEldowney for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

    ¶1.  (C)  SUMMARY:  The odds-on favorite to become Bulgaria's
    next Prime Minister is Sofia Mayor Boyko Borissov.  A rough
    hewn and volatile figure with rumored links to organized
    crime, Borissov exploits the electorate's yearning for a
    dominant leader to reverse the perceived failures of current
    PM Stanishev and his gridlocked three-party coalition.
    Touting his lack of sophistication as a badge of honor,
    Borissov is the most cunning and charismatic player of the
    day.  He is explicitly cultivating U.S. and European approval
    to bolster his legitimacy.  Using this to our advantage, we
    can push him and his GERB party into more responsible
    positions as next year's elections approach.  END SUMMARY.

    ¶2.  (C)  Though elections are still as many as nine months
    out, Sofia Mayor Borissov is the man to beat.  A political
    headliner, he outpaces PM Stanishev by over 30 points, vying
    with President Parvanov in popularity.  Borissov's charisma,
    prominent (and usually favorable) media treatment, and the
    discredited state of rival leaders (and their parties) propel
    his two-year old GERB party.  Despite self-styled claims that
    it is Bulgaria's "new center-right," GERB's appeal flows from
    Borissov's
    larger-than-life personality and his populist bent.  He
    attracts disenchanted
    and alienated voters from both the left and right, as well as
    huge swaths of the protest vote against the unpopular
    Socialist-led coalition.

    Raw Political Force
    -------------------

    ¶3.  (C)  A canny political operator, Borissov is smart and
    savvy even if relatively unsophisticated.  More comfortable
    on the Bulgarian than the world stage, he is no novice at
    playing on larger arenas.  He fully understands power -- real
    and symbolic -- and how to hold and exercise it.
    Underestimating his political talent or drive is a costly
    mistake for his rivals and opponents.  Called a "raw
    political force," with emphasis on all three words, he is an
    instinctual decision maker.  As a political operator, he is
    more tactician and inside player than strategist.  At times
    mercurial, he can be (according to our GERB contacts)
    "impatient" and "change his
    mind every day"  even when being completely focused on
    clearly defined goals.  Borissov has a tainted past --
    personal
    ties to 1990s mafia leaders -- but denies any involvement
    in crime.  During his Secretary General tenure at the MOI, he
    personally led raids against drug dealers, but there
    were no busts of any major OC figures.  As elections near,
    questions about his past are likely to increase, especially
    from the desperate Socialists who plan to mount a negative
    campaign to cast the election as a "referendum on
    Borissov."

    Springboard Sofia
    -----------------

    ¶4.  (C)  Borissov touts U.S. and European ties whenever
    possible, including his support from the center-right
    Konrad Adenauer Foundation, the Hanns Seidel Foundation,
    the Robert Schumann Foundation, and his personal
    relationship with Angela Merkel and the European People's
    Party.  In his initial meeting with the Ambassador, he
    stressed
    Bulgarians are not used to taking decisions on their own
    and need Washington and Brussels to "tell the PM what needs
    to be done."  He added that when GERB wins, he plans to have
    a foreign
    expert in each ministry to support and monitor its work.  A
    directive not collaborative leader, Borissov would dominate
    whatever cabinet he chooses.

    ¶5.  (C)  We have consistently urged Borissov to develop teams
    to
    elaborate policy on key issues, such as national security,
    energy security, and rule of law, and to identify and groom
    candidates for senior and mid-level government positions.  We
    doubt the planning process has gone much further than making
    lists and some initial contacts, but preliminary soundings
    hold some promise.
    Borissov and nominal party head Tsvetan Tsvetanov shared
    names of potential future ministers in a GERB-led
    government, including some non-GERB choices; some hold
    promise.  GERB has
    already floated the Finance Ministry to World Bank Director
    Kristalina Georgieva and the MFA to GERB European Parliament
    Deputy
    Roumyana Zheleva.  Borissov is a master of misdirection and
    false leads, at times hinting he may not take the Prime

    SOFIA 00000672  002 OF 002

    Minister's position but offer it to someone else.  This helps
    fuel speculation that he has the Presidency in mind, a
    calculated ploy to boost his image as a national unifier.

    Wild Cards: Russia, Ataka
    -------------------------

    ¶6.  (C)  Despite his pro-European talk, insiders believe
    Borissov is a "wild card" when it comes to Russia.  He is
    close to Lukoil regional
    head Valentin Zlatev, rumored to support GERB with
    cash.  (Hedging bets, Slatev is also a big BSP money patron).
     Borissov keeps a wary eye on electoral dynamics.  A GERB
    survey shows that 64 percent of likely GERB voters and 67
    percent of Bulgarians in general favor close ties with
    Russia.  With an alienated, angry electorate, GERB looks to
    minimize defections to radical fringes, especially Ataka.
    Based on the survey, Borissov reportedly told his team that
    he would make pro-Russian statements from "time to time"
    and stay away from the Russia vs. NATO debate to keep his
    electorate happy.

    ¶7.  (C)  Borissov may be prepared to tack away from
    center-right positions under certain circumstances.  For
    example, GERB has flirted with Ataka, conducting some joint
    actions with them and (sometimes) speaking well of their
    leader Volen
    Siderov.  He assures us he is doing so only to keep up his
    populist credentials and would never form a coalition with
    them, in fact, would go into opposition before doing so.
    But, if GERB faced the prospect of needing a coalition with
    the BSP or ethnically Turkish MRF, odds are Borissov would
    manipulate all parties to drive the best bargain.

    ¶8.  (C)  The one constant in Borissov is his need for foreign
    validation.  He looks to the U.S. for much of that,
    showcasing his relations with U.S. politicians and law
    enforcement officials.  The likely victory of his
    personality-based party in the next general elections
    illustrates
    Bulgaria's continued political immaturity, as many
    still believe in a savior who will quickly resolve
    problems.  Borissov's need for our blessing and oversized
    ego are powerful tools we can use to steer him toward
    becoming an effective national leader.  Leveraging his pride
    and
    need for legitimacy, we can nudge him and his party toward
    a modern political formation that naturally looks to the U.S.
    as a genuine partner.  But in any case, if Borissov wins, it
    will be quite a ride.
    McEldowney

`