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### Viewing cable 05WELLINGTON908, NEW ZEALAND'S AVIAN AND PANDEMIC INFLUENZA

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05WELLINGTON908 | 2005-11-25 03:34 | 2011-04-28 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Wellington

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 WELLINGTON 000908

    SIPDIS

    STATE FOR OES/DR. DANIEL SINGER AND
    REBECCA S. DALEY, INR FOR LESTER AND BRUNETTE-CHEN,
    STATE FOR D (FRITZ), EAP/FO (STEPHENS),
    AND EAP/ANP
    NSC FOR VICTOR CHA
    SECDEF FOR OSD/ISA ELIZABETH PHU
    NSC FOR VICTOR CHA
    PACOM FOR J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2015
    TAGS: TBIO SENV ECON EAGR EAID PREL NZ
    SUBJECT: NEW ZEALAND'S AVIAN AND PANDEMIC INFLUENZA
    PLANNING UPDATE

    REF: A. SECSTATE 206992
         ¶B. WELLINGTON 704

    Classified By: Political-Economic Counselor Katherine Hadda,
    for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

    ¶1. (C) Summary: Since launching a government-wide effort in
    June, the GNZ has vigorously planned for the possibility of
    avian and pandemic influenza entering New Zealand.  Under
    the coordination of the Ministry of Health (MOH), the
    Inter-sectoral Pandemic Group (IPG) of thirteen ministries
    and departments in November released publicly a
    comprehensive Influenza Pandemic Action Plan.  In
    developing its national plan, the GNZ has consulted closely
    with Australia and WHO officials, and has sought to shore
    up its inability to produce human vaccines by securing an
    agreement with an Australia-based manufacture to provide
    priority access to a vaccine once it is developed.

    ¶2.  (C) Beyond the vaccine weakness, New Zealand is
    well-positioned
    to execute its national strategy having mature animal and
    human
    surveillance programs, well-implemented vaccination
    administration programs, and having reviewed its legal
    authorities to implement quarantine and other social
    distancing measures.  In October 2005, Prime Minister Helen
    Clark appointed veteran minister and scientist Pete Hodgson
    as Minister of Health, further signifying the high
    importance of pandemic influenza and other health issues to
    the GNZ. Embassy will provide a further update to this message
    following consultations with GNZ expert Marlene Castle next
    week.
    Castle was unavailable prior to the Ref A requested response
    deadline.
    End Summary.

    Preparedness/Communication
    ---------------------------
    ¶2. (C) NATIONAL PLAN: The government of New Zealand in June
    initiated development of a comprehensive national plan to
    respond to avian and pandemic influenza, and released the
    plan publicly in early November.  New Zealand is
    well-positioned to implement its national strategy.  New
    Zealand's area of greatest weakness is that it does not
    have local capacity to manufacture human vaccines.  The
    principal
    national planning document is available through the Ministry
    of
    Health at http://www.moh.govt.nz/nhep.  The plan is expected
    to
    undergo continuing revision as a "living document," and is
    currently on its 14th version. Further planning documentation
    regarding animals is available through Biosecurity New
    Zealand at
    http://www.biosecurity.govt.nz.

    ¶3. (C) RELIABLE REPORTING: There is no reason to doubt the
    government's truthfulness in reporting the scope of any
    disease outbreak among people or animals.  New Zealand has
    a mature public health surveillance system, including two
    programs specifically dedicated to monitoring influenza:
    (1) a general practice (GP) sentinel disease and
    virological surveillance system operates annually during
    the winter months recording the daily number of
    consultations that fit the case definition of an
    influenza-like illness and (2) an ongoing virological
    surveillance is carried out by designated virology
    diagnostic laboratories, and by the ESR virology
    laboratory. Data collected from these laboratories is
    reported nationally in the Virology Weekly Report.

    ¶4. (U) Biosecurity New Zealand, within the Ministry of
    Agriculture and Forestry's (MAF), manages the Animal
    Disease Surveillance program, including regular reporting of
    surveillance results and auditing of services purchased
    from contractors.  In the last two years, almost 2,000
    samples were collected from migratory waterfowl in the
    vicinity of arrival locations.  No bird flu or highly
    pathogenic avian influenza viruses were isolated from any
    of these samples, or from the less intensive sampling that
    was conducted in previous years. Fifteen avian influenza
    viruses have been isolated and characterized in New Zealand
    over the past 15 years. All were non-pathogenic.

    ¶5. (C) Presently, public health surveillance reports for
    reportable diseases in humans are published on a weekly
    cycle.  Reports for disease in animals are reported on a
    quarterly cycle.  Greater frequency of reporting of disease
    among animals would contribute to greater transparency by
    providing more timely and thus more relevant information.
    New Zealand's national plan provides for increased animal
    surveillance once the pandemic enters WHO Interpandemic
    Period Phase 2.

    ¶6. (C) PRIORITY TO GOVERNMENT:  Preparing for an avian flu
    pandemic ranks highly among government priorities.  Staff
    from the External Assessments Bureau (EAB) located within
    the Department of the Prime Minister
    and Cabinet, have been assigned to avian influenza threat
    planning.  The Director, David Kersey, has been seconded to
    the Officials Committee for Domestic and External Security
    (ODESC) for this purpose, and currently spends only 10% of
    his time at EAB.  The Ministry of Health (MoH), the agency
    leading intergovernmental coordination and planning through
    the Intersectoral Pandemic Group (IPG), has taken a
    "maximum credible event" approach to planning for avian
    influenza pandemic.  Under this approach MoH models assume
    a pandemic wave in which 40% of the NZ population will
    become ill over an eight-week period with a 2% fatality
    rate (33,000 deaths in the eight-week period).

    ¶7. (C) It is difficult to conceive of the government
    placing higher priority on the issue.  In October, Prime
    Minister Helen Clark appointed Pete Hodgson as Minister of
    Health.  As the only scientist among the
    Labour-government's members, Hodgson is well-regarded for
    his management capability and subject-matter expertise.
    During the last term of government, Hodgson had ministerial
    responsibility for energy, fisheries, research &
    technology, and the Crown Research Institutes, and was the
    government's resident expert on climate change.

    ¶8. (C) KEY CONTACT: The Embassy's principal liaison with the
    government of New Zealand on avian flu issues is Marlene
    Castle,
    External Assessments Bureau (EAB).  EAB is located in the
    Prime
    Minister's office and is responsible for monitoring and
    analyzing world events for the PM and Cabinet officials.
    Castle is a chemical and biological weapons expert and has
    been following the avian flu epidemic for the last two
    years.  She is also heavily involved in GNZ's contingency
    planning should a pandemic strike here, and regularly
    briefs the Prime Minister on the disease's trajectory.

    ¶9. (U) REVIEW OF LAWS: As part of the Influenza Pandemic
    Action Plan, the GNZ is assessing the legal authorities
    applicable to its planned actions in response to each of
    the WHO-designated pandemic phases.  Much of the specific
    legal authority it cited within the plan, and will be
    updated during subsequent plan versions.

    ¶10. (C) MULTILATERAL COOPERATION: New Zealand is working
    closely with the World Health Organization and the
    government of Australia.  Castle indicates that GNZ
    officials have nearly "constant touch" with WHO and
    Australian officials.  The government has recognized that
    New Zealand does not have the capacity to manufacture human
    vaccines, and has thus secured an agreement with an
    Australia-based manufacturer to get priority access to
    vaccines in the event of a future influenza pandemic.
    During an actual pandemic, particularly if the agreed
    supplier is incapable of supplying a vaccine, the
    government may seek assistance from Australia, the US or
    other countries for vaccine assistance.

    ¶11. (U) ANNUAL FLU VACCINES: New Zealand has a mature
    program for administering annual influenza vaccines, but
    does not have the local capacity to manufacture human
    vaccines.  Instead annual influenza vaccines are purchased
    from vendors in Australia, who formulate the vaccine with
    input from the governments of Australia, New Zealand, and
    South Africa and the World Health Organization.  The
    vaccines are formulated for the Southern hemisphere winter
    and the flu season from April to September.

    ¶12. (C) PUBLIC INFORMATION: The planning group has begun
    to implement a public education campaign, including
    significant
    information now available on the Ministry of Health website
    cited paragraph 1 of this cable.  Other ministries
    and departments have begun publishing information on websites
    including Biosecurity New Zealand and the Ministry for
    Economic
    Development.  Other steps are being considered, including
    pamphlets.  Information on whom to contact in case of a
    pandemic
    are now included in a prominent place in New Zealand phone
    directories.  The aim of GNZ's outreach efforts is to educate
    without inducing panic.  Local media has provided frequent
    coverage of avian influenza both globally and locally, and
    even in rural areas the public is well-informed although
    probably poorly prepared with provisional supplies and coping
    strategies.

    Surveillance/Detection
    ----------------------
    ¶13. (C) CAPABILITY TO DETECT AND SUBTYPE: New Zealand
    surveillance systems can effectively isolate and detect new
    strains of influenza both among people and animals, and New
    Zealand should be able to properly diagnose cases in short
    order.  There is a relatively low level of endemic disease
    among animal species.  Influenza viruses can be subtyped in
    country, principally by the government owned entity
    Institute for Environmental Science and Research Limited,
    as demonstrated during the 2004 flu season.  During 2004,
    an influenza A substrain was first isolated in New Zealand;
    the virus was later determined to have originated in
    Southern China.  The strain will be formulated into the
    2005 seasonal flu vaccine.

    ¶14. (C) CRITICAL GAPS: New Zealand's greatest weakness
    appears to be its local inability to manufacture human
    vaccines.

    Response/Containment
    --------------------
    ¶15. (C) STOCKPILES: The Government of New Zealand has
    acquired 855,000 doses of the antiviral oseltamivir
    (Tamiflu), sufficient to treat 21% of the population.  MOH
    has further recognized the need for District Health Boards
    (DHBs) to consider the need to build their own supplies of
    anti-viral drugs, over above the levels held in the
    national stockpile.

    ¶16. (U) CULLING AND OTHER ANIMAL MEASURES:  MAF has
    authority under the Biosecurity Act of 1993 to respond to
    organism incursions through control or eradication.
    Biosecurity New Zealand, a component of MAF, has included
    eradication/culling within it planning framework.

    ¶17. (SBU) QUARANTINE AND SOCIAL DISTANCING:  Given the
    short-run lack of a vaccine and limited antiviral supplies,
    quarantine and social distancing measures are the principal
    means considered by the government for a future pandemic
    virus that enters New Zealand.  These measures include:
    recommending that sick people stay home; advising the
    public against unnecessary travel; utilizing the powers of
    medical officers of health to cancel public events; closing
    child care facilities, schools and tertiary education
    institutions; removal and detention for individuals
    suspected of infection with avian influenza; compulsory
    treatment; authority to use other areas as a hospital or
    place of isolation; and use of police and defense forces to
    isolate infected areas and prevent travel to uninfected
    islands.

    McCormick

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