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### Viewing cable 08MEXICO2793, PRI REVVING UP FOR 2009 ELECTIONS

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08MEXICO2793 | 2008-09-13 12:14 | 2011-05-24 10:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Mexico
Appears in these articles: http://wikileaks.jornada.com.mx/notas/el-mandatario-mexiquense-financia-empresas-encuestadoras-que-den-resultados-a-su-favor

`

    VZCZCXRO2239
    RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
    DE RUEHME #2793/01 2571214
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 131214Z SEP 08
    FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3269
    INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
    RHMFIUU/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHINGTON DC
    RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHINGTON DC
    RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
    RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
    RHMFIUU/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
    RHMFIUU/CDR USNORTHCOM
    RUEAHLA/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY
    RUEABND/DEA HQS WASHINGTON DC
    RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC

` `

    169723
    2008-09-13 12:14:00
    08MEXICO2793
    Embassy Mexico
    UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
    08MEXICO2764|08MEXICO2766|08MEXICO281
    VZCZCXRO2239
    RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
    DE RUEHME #2793/01 2571214
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 131214Z SEP 08
    FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3269
    INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
    RHMFIUU/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHINGTON DC
    RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHINGTON DC
    RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
    RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
    RHMFIUU/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
    RHMFIUU/CDR USNORTHCOM
    RUEAHLA/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY
    RUEABND/DEA HQS WASHINGTON DC
    RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
    TAGS: ELAB MX PGOV PINR PREL
    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MEXICO 002793

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ELAB MX PGOV PINR PREL
    SUBJECT: PRI REVVING UP FOR 2009 ELECTIONS
     REF: A. MEXICO 2766
         ¶B. MEXICO 2764
         ¶C. MEXICO 0281

    ¶1. (SBU) Summary: PRI has sought over the past two years to
    recover from Roberto Madrazo's disheartening third place
    finish in the hard fought 2006 presidential race and is now
    gunning for big gains in the 2009 legislative and regional
    elections.  PRI is looking to restructure the party from the
    inside out, better define its ideological stance, and take
    advantage of tough economic and security conditions to
    position itself for next year's votes.  Nevertheless, a
    resounding PRI victory in 2009 at this point is far from
    certain, and it faces a tough opponent in President Felipe
    Calderon and his PAN supporters.

    Regrouping and Recentralizing
    -----------------------------

    ¶2. (SBU) PRI is highlighting recent efforts to rejuvenate the
    party both in structure and image.  PRI congressional deputy
    Samuel Aguilar from Durango State told poloff on August 28
    that the party has undergone an internal restructuring aimed
    at ridding itself of the infighting and power struggles he
    blames for the 2006 loss.  Indeed, several of the changes to
    party statutes approved during the PRI's August 23 National
    Assembly appear designed to redistribute party authority away
    from state governors--which has been blamed by party insiders
    and analysts in part for the party's struggles since
    2000--and to recentralize power in the National Executive
    Committee (CEN).  Some of the new statues include granting
    the CEN the right to approve coalitions made by state-level
    leaders, the ability to oversee the selection of candidates
    to compete in state elections, and the power to collect every
    month five percent of the salaries and expenses paid to PRI
    public servants and elected officials.  PRI Deputy Edmundo
    Ramirez also touted for poloff on September 9 new efforts to
    promote younger leaders and allow them to take on more
    substantive roles in legislative commissions, which he claims
    will help to infuse new energy in the party.

    Burnishing Its Image
    --------------------

    ¶3. (SBU) In addition to strengthening party command and
    control, PRI is also looking to energize its party dogma and
    better define itself as an attractive alternative to its PAN
    and PRD opponents.  At the August assembly, the party
    unanimously and officially adopted "social democracy" as its
    ideological cornerstone in an attempt to differentiate itself
    from the PAN's conservatism and the PRD's more hardline
    leftist bent.  PRI Senator and Vice President of the Senate's
    Mesa Directiva Francisco Arroyo told poloff on September 11
    that PRI for too long has paid scant attention to defining
    its political stance and is rectifying this ideological
    vacuity prior to the 2009 House of Deputies and six
    gubernatorial elections.

    ¶4. (SBU) PRI is also seeking to define itself as the party
    that gets things done or, as its propaganda posters and
    stickers exclaim, "Priistas are working."  Senator Arroyo
    noted that, rightly or wrongly, the Mexican public perceives
    PRI as the party that robs Mexico but governs well.  Aguilar
    said that PRI can play this image against both the PAN and
    the PRD by taking advantage of Mexico's problematic security
    and economic conditions to cast PAN as failing to take
    significant or effective steps to address such woes, and
    highlighting PRD's obstructionist and divisive behavior as
    only blocking necessary reforms.  PRI leaders told poloff
    that they think PRI can win between 200 and 220 seats in the
    Chamber of Deputies next year using this approach, up from
    106 of the 500 Chamber slots they currently hold.

    Plans for this Legislative Session
    ----------------------------------

    ¶5. (SBU) PRI, in its efforts to cast itself as the efficient
    and practical political powerbroker, plans to privilege the
    passage of energy reform and security measures during this
    legislative session.  PRI politicians and various political
    analysts believe that some sort of energy reform will be
    passed by the PRI and the PAN this session in the October

    MEXICO 00002793  002 OF 003

    timeframe.  Senator Arroyo also reported that a priority is
    the passage of some security related legislation, such as
    measures to toughen the maximum sentences for kidnapping and
    organized crime.  PRI also is preparing to play hardball on
    the administration's budget proposal, according to both PAN
    and PRI contacts, and will probably demand that the
    government rescind cuts to agricultural programs (ref a and
    b).

    ¶6. (SBU) PRI's sharpened public criticism in recent days of
    the Calderon administration's overall security approach (ref
    c) and economic management probably is a bell weather of
    things to come.  Most political commentators suggest that the
    legislature will be more or less productive through October,
    in part because the PRI wants an energy reform feather in its
    cap.  After November, however, PRI and PAN politics in
    particular will become increasingly embattled as both parties
    posture in the run-up to 2009.  PRI already is impugning
    Calderon's economic record by releasing a report in the
    Chamber of Deputies early this month claiming that more than
    1,300,000 Mexicans have immigrated to the United States
    during the first two years of Calderon's presidency,
    representing a "true catastrophe" and a failure by the
    government to provide Mexicans with real employment
    opportunities.

    It All Sounds Good on Paper...
    ------------------------------

    ¶7. (SBU) Despite PRI's claims that it has indeed learned from
    its electoral debacles, the party still is facing challenges
    in adapting to Mexico's changing political realities.  The
    party appears to be as yet unable to specifically define its
    social democratic vision.  When asked by poloff, PRI leaders
    were only able to describe the platform as being "more like
    Europe's than like Chavez's" and "focusing on people." Claims
    that the party is promoting the emergence of young leaders
    may also be overstated--the Embassy's Labor Attache reports
    that younger rank and file PRI and affiliated labor leaders
    continue to be frustrated in their aspirations for upward
    mobility in the party.  Moreover, while PRI has presented a
    relatively united face to the Mexican public, PRI-affiliated
    labor contacts also report that internal jockeying for the
    2012 presidential candidacy has already begun.  State
    governors such as Fidel Herrera Beltran of Veracruz and
    Eduardo Borz Castelo of Sonora are beginning to battle for
    the position along with oft-mentioned Mexico State Governor
    Enrique Pena Nieto and PRI Senate leader Manilo Fabio
    Beltrones.

    Comment: A Long Road to 2009
    ----------------------------

    ¶8. (SBU) PRI is well-positioned about a year out of the 2009
    election season to make gains in the Chamber of Deputies.
    PRI's political machinery--including its current eighteen of
    31 state governorships--is still for the most part in place
    despite its past electoral defeats.  The party's publicly
    unified face presents a sharp contrast to the PRD and, to a
    lesser extent, the PAN.  Party representatives pay at least
    lip service to learning from 2006 to move forward on internal
    restructuring and allow for the reemergence of new leaders,
    which in theory could help improve its image as a party
    responsive to Mexico's changing political environment.

    ¶9. (SBU) All the same, a resounding PRI victory in 2009 is
    far from certain at this point.  The party, despite efforts
    to the contrary, has yet to more than vaguely define its
    platform or the meaning of its new social democratic label.
    The party may also have a tough time selling the message that
    it is a political powerbroker "getting things done" if the
    bulk of what it has accomplished has come through voting in
    coalition with the PAN on PAN-proposed legislation.
    Moreover, casting the 2009 votes as a plebiscite on the
    Calderon government could very well backfire--Calderon's
    approval ratings still register above the sixtieth
    percentile.  PRI is ready for a fight, but probably should
    refrain from counting their deputies so far before the
    candidate selection process even starts.
    Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at
    http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American
    Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap /

    MEXICO 00002793  003 OF 003

    BASSETT

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