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### Viewing cable 07KINGSTON803, JAMAICA: OPPOSITION LEADER HOPES TO WIN AT LEAST

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07KINGSTON803 | 2007-05-24 16:30 | 2011-06-13 09:30 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Kingston

`

    VZCZCXYZ0003
    PP RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHKG #0803/01 1441630
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 241630Z MAY 07
    FM AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4811
    INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE
    RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0479
    RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 000803

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    STATE FOR WHA/CAR (RANDALL BUDDEN)

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2016
    TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR ECON SOCI ENRG KCOR JM
    VZ, XL
    SUBJECT: JAMAICA: OPPOSITION LEADER HOPES TO WIN AT LEAST
    37 OF 60 PARLIAMENTARY SEATS IN IMPENDING NATIONAL
    ELECTIONS, BUT DECRIES CHAVEZ'S GROWING INFLUENCE

    REF: A. KINGSTON 393 (211315Z MAR 07)

         ¶B. KINGSTON 705 (111640Z MAY 07)

    Classified By: Ambassador Brenda L. Johnson, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

    Summary
    --------

    1.(C)  Leader of the Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP)
    Bruce Golding:

    -- confidently predicts the JLP will win at least 37 of 60 parliamentar
    seats in impending national elections;

    -- has "now confirmed the arrival" in Jamaica of 4 to 6 million U.S.
    dollars in cash given by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez to finance th
    upcoming election campaign of Prime Minister (PM) Portia Simpson Miller
    (PSM)'s ruling People's National Party (PNP);

    -- decries Chavez's growing influence in Jamaica, and asks "whether the
    U.S. is merely a spectator, or is going to register serious concerns;"

    -- sees no signs of election violence.
    End Summary.

    Chavez alleged to have given millions to influence impending national
    elections
    --------------------------------------------

    2.(C)   At his request, Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) Leader
    Bruce Golding met privately with Ambassador (accompanied by PolOff) the
    afternoon of May 21 in his office at JLP Headquarters.  Ambassador bega
    by asking about Golding's recent visit to New York; he said he had held
    an excellent meeting with former Governor George Pataki two weeks ago,
    and had discussed at some length the prospects for Jamaica's impending
    national elections.  He had "now confirmed the arrival" in Jamaica of 4
    to 6 million U.S. dollars in cash given by Venezuelan President Hugo
    Chavez to finance the upcoming election campaign of Prime Minister (PM)
    Portia Simpson Miller (PSM)'s ruling People's National Party (PNP)
    (Reftel A).  JLP supporters had "seen signs of this money at work on th
    ground."  He then said: "at the risk of being blunt, the question is
    whether the U.S. is merely a spectator, or is going to register serious
    concerns."   The Ambassador reiterated Washington's deep reservations
    about Chavez's political and economic influence throughout the region,
    and assured Golding that we had expressed these concerns to the
    Government of Jamaica (GoJ); however, the U.S. was unable to intervene
    directly in the electoral processes of other countries.

    Petrocaribe and Petrojam
    ------------------------

    3.(C)  Golding then said he had asked Opposition Energy Spokesman
    (Member of Parliament for St. James West Central) Clive Mullins to
    "investigate" the deal recently struck by the GoJ to sell 49 percent of
    Jamaica's national oil company Petrojam to Venezuela for only 63-69
    million U.S. dollars.  He said the valuation of Petrojam should be
    determined by the level of investment and shareholding; he understood
    that the company's valuation recently had been estimated at 300
    million U.S. dollars.  PNP insiders had "told me it has gotten to the
    point that whatever Chavez wants, Chavez gets."  Golding then maintaine
    that the JLP's "real fear" was that "when we take power, we'll find tha
    the previous Government has made agreements without public discourse."

    Meeting with DAS Duddy
    ----------------------

    4.(C)  Golding then said he had appreciated his recent meeting at the
    State Department with DAS Duddy, whose "disquiet" over growing
    Venezuelan influence in Jamaica had been "obvious."   But the question
    "as to whether this was a serious issue with the U.S." was another
    matter.  Ambassador said she understood that Golding had been very
    favorably received in Washington, and also noted that Gov. and Mrs.
    Pataki were her personal friends.

    JLP's Funding Difficulties
    --------------------------

    5.(C)  Golding then noted that, historically, the JLP had relied on
    corporate donors for 70 percent of the Party's  funding; however, the
    "levels of money needed" had "grown beyond corporate donors' ability."
     He estimated the election would cost 250 million Jamaican dollars
    (3.7 million U.S.).  Once the elections had been called, the JLP's
    donors would be "more forthcoming." However, the most recent results
    from pollster Bill Johnson, published in the Jamaica Gleaner newspaper,
    purporting that the PNP currently enjoyed a seven-point lead nationally
    were "not helpful" in raising donations.  The JLP was "going after"
    about nineteen constituencies normally held by the PNP, and money was
    "key" in swinging the marginal constituencies.

    Timing of Elections
    -------------------

    6.(C)  In response to Ambassador's inquiry about the timing of
    elections, Golding observed that the "most recent speculation" was that
    PSM would announce in late June that the elections would be held in
    July.  Ambassador noted that PSM was scheduled to address an ILO meetin
    on June 12 in Geneva and to meet with Prince Charles on June 13, and
    also had indicated she would attend the Caribbean 20/20 Conference in
    Washington June 19-21.  Golding noted that PSM might announce elections
    the last week of June, following her return; alternatively, she might
    cancel one or more of her commitments. He then said he was unsure
    whether the latest poll had "buoyed" the PNP, but his PNP contacts had
    told him they were "worried."  The JLP planned to be on the campaign
    trail "three-to-four days per week over the next six weeks."

    Corruption Endemic: Polls Suspect
    ---------------------------------

    7.(C)  Golding then observed that there were "not many things in Jamaic
    without a price tag: newspaper stories are for sale."  He described
    corruption as "endemic," and acknowledged its presence within the JLP.
    Casting cold water on the Bill Johnson poll in the Jamaica Gleaner, he
    said "if you want a poll, it's for sale."

    JLP to win at least 37 of 60 seats
    ----------------------------------

    8.(C)  In response to Ambassador's inquiry, Golding confirmed that he
    and PSM had agreed to hold three debates within seven days following
    nomination day: the first to focus on the leaders themselves, the secon
    on the economy, and a third on social services. He then noted that, as
    had been the case in the recent budget debates in Parliament (Reftel B)
    PSM would enjoy the advantage of low expectations, and thus needed only
    one sound bite to look good; in contrast, "I must perform for 90
    minutes."  In response to Ambassador's inquiry, Golding said that forme
    PM P.J. Patterson was giving the PNP "tactical advice," but was not out
    in the trenches.  He then maintained the JLP was "confident of winning
    37 seats (of total 60), and possibly as many as 41."    He said there
    were 18 ) 19 seats which were "really difficult for the JLP."  He noted
    that, in the Southwest St. Ann constituency, a traditional PNP
    stronghold, divisions among contending PNP factions gave the JLP a
    chance for victory.

    No signs of election violence
    -----------------------------

    9.(C)  In response to Ambassador's inquiry as to whether the
    elections might be marred by the kind of violence Jamaica had
    experienced in past years, Golding said he saw "little indication of
    violence;" it had become "politically unacceptable."  While there alway
    would be some risk of spontaneous incidents, he detected "no signs of
    any violence being planned." Ambassador concluded by reiterating U.S.
    hopes that the two parties would continue to eschew violence, and
    that the country would benefit from peaceful and clean elections; this
    would serve the mutual interests of Jamaica and the U.S.
    Johnson

`