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### Viewing cable 08MANAGUA419, ELECTION-RELATED VIOLENCE ERUPTS ON NICARAGUA'S

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08MANAGUA419 | 2008-04-09 15:02 | 2011-06-01 08:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Managua

Appears in these articles:
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758456.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758467.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758468.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758464.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4103/la-embusa-y-el-gabinete-de-ortega
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4104/d-rsquo-escoto-en-onu-ldquo-un-desafio-de-ortega-a-ee-uu-rdquo
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4102/estrada-y-la-ldquo-doble-cara-rdquo-ante-ee-uu
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3966/la-ldquo-injerencia-rdquo-de-ee-uu-en-el-2006
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-23/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2758764.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-23/Mundo/NotaPrincipal/Mundo2758753.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4041/millones-de-dolares-sin-control-y-a-discrecion
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4040/la-ldquo-injerencia-rdquo-de-venezuela-en-2006
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4047/rodrigo-barreto-enviado-de-ldquo-vacaciones-rdquo
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2757239.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/NotaPrincipal/Mundo2746658.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2757244.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2746673.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3991/dra-yadira-centeno-desmiente-cable-diplomatico-eeuu
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3968/pellas-pronostico-a-eeuu-victoria-de-ortega-en-2006
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3967/barreto-era-ldquo-fuente-confiable-rdquo-para-eeuu

`

    VZCZCXRO7641
    OO RUEHLMC
    DE RUEHMU #0419/01 1001502
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 091502Z APR 08
    FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2401
    INFO RUEHMU/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS IMMEDIATE
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC IMMEDIATE
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC IMMEDIATE
    RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHDC IMMEDIATE
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
    RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHDC IMMEDIATE
    RUMIAAA/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL//J2/J3/J5// IMMEDIATE

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 MANAGUA 000419

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    DEPT PLS PASS TO USAID LAC
    DEPT FOR WHA/CEN GREENE AND NYMAN
    DEPT FOR DRL G. MAGGIO
    DEPT FOR USOAS
    DEPT FOR INR/IAA EMERSON
    NSC FOR V ALVARADO
    SOUTHCOM FOR FPA

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/04/2018
    TAGS: PGOV CASC PHUM KDEM NU
    SUBJECT: ELECTION-RELATED VIOLENCE ERUPTS ON NICARAGUA'S
    ATLANTIC COAST AS GOVERNMENT SUSPENDS MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS

    REF: A. MANAGUA 416
         ¶B. MANAGUA 297
         ¶C. MANAGUA 105 AND PREVIOUS

    Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli for reasons 1.4(B,D)

    ¶1.  (C) SUMMARY.  On Friday, April 4 violence erupted in
    Nicaragua's North Atlantic Autonomous Region's (RAAN) capital
    of Puerto Cabezas between local government-backed opponents
    of municipal elections and supporters of elections.  Initial
    reports that at least two pro-vote supporters died in the
    clash proved untrue.  However, at least 30 were injured --
    several seriously -- including two gunshot victims and there
    was sporadic violence throughout Friday.  On Friday evening,
    the Supreme Electoral Council finally announced it would
    delay RAAN local elections by six months (until April 2009),
    citing the lack of "technical conditions" to hold the
    elections.  The CSE decision appeared to be another
    manifestation of the "Pacto," the unspoken power-sharing
    agreement between Ortega and former President Aleman, with
    Aleman loyalists voting for formation of a quorum and then
    against the final decision.  The situation in the RAAN
    remains tense.  As of Tuesday morning, upwards of 100 riot
    police maintain watch over the airport, mayor's office, and
    governor's office.  Representatives from both sides have
    filed formal judicial complaints and leaders from nearby RAAN
    municipalities and the Autonomous South (RAAS) have
    criticized the government for suspending elections and
    provoking violence.  While the opposition and civil society
    mobilize to turn the decision around, it is not clear how
    effective they will be.  END SUMMARY.

    Friday, April 4 - Violence Erupts
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶2. (SBU) Early on the morning of April 4, Liberal deputies
    Enrique Quinonez, Jose Pallais, and Victor Duarte flew to
    Puerto Cabezas to meet with local leaders about the impasse
    over the government's pending decision to cancel municipal
    elections in the region scheduled for November.  Following
    their arrival, the deputies were detained at the airport by
    500-700 government-backed opponents of elections armed with
    rocks, sticks, and some guns.  Eyewitnesses report that the
    pro-FSLN regional governor and the mayor of Puerto Cabezas
    were personally directing the crowd's activities.  Assembled
    a few miles away, between 200 and 400 pro-election supporters
    were gathered in the central park to receive the deputies.
    Upon hearing that anti-vote forces were preventing the
    deputies from leaving the airport, the pro-vote supporters
    marched to the landing strip.  At the airport, violence broke
    out almost immediately, as anti-vote supporters began
    throwing rocks and beating pro-vote supporters with sticks as
    they tried to clear a way for the deputies to leave.  The
    situation escalated and eyewitnesses report that shots were
    fired and that least two people were believed dead. (Note:
    the two individuals are reported to be gravely wounded and
    were transported to hospitals in Managua.  One individual is
    reported to be on life support and not expected to survive.
    End Note.)

    ¶3. (C) The deputies were ultimately able to leave the airport
    and later met with an interfaith religious commission which
    presented them with a letter urging that elections go forward
    as originally planned.  (COMMENT: The Moravian Church
    withdrew from the coalition at the last minute, despite
    supporting the letter the evening before, and declared that
    the church neither opposed nor supported elections.  This
    last-minute change was made after Church Superintendent Cora
    Antonio departed for the U.S.  Other Moravian board members
    were caught off guard and the other denominations were
    bitterly disappointed.  The Moravians pledged to restate
    their support upon Antonio's return to Nicaragua.  END
    COMMENT)  Shortly after deputies departed the city,
    pro-election supporters attacked both the Town Hall and the
    regional governor's offices.  They broke into the mayor's
    office, where they reportedly ruined several computers and

    MANAGUA 00000419  002 OF 004

    drove everyone out of the building.  Eyewitnesses report that
    police and pro-vote supporters exchanged fire for several
    minutes around 2pm local time.

    ¶4. (C) On Friday afternoon, an estimated 100 riot police
    arrived by air from Managua and were immediately dispatched
    around the city, including to the governor's office.  As of
    Monday, April 7, the riot police were still in Puerto Cabezas
    guarding the airport, the governor's office, and the mayor's
    office.  They also reportedly monitored an assembly of
    approximately 500 pro-vote supporters who gathered in the
    central park on Saturday afternoon.  Sources report that the
    riot police have not taken any aggressive measures, but are
    simply guarding and watching.   By Friday evening, and
    following the CSE decision, most people had gone home and a
    relative calm settled over the city.  The situation remains
    calm but tense, with small-scale demonstrations but no
    violence reported.

    CSE Postpones Municipal Elections
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶5. (C) At 8:30 on Friday night, CSE Magistrate Roberto Rivas
    announced that municipal elections in three municipalities in
    the RAAN, Puerto Cabezas, Prinzapolka, and Waspam, would be
    suspended for six months (until April 2009) because of the
    absence of "technical conditions."  Rivas also cited the
    violence as a reason for the CSE to take the decision on an
    urgent basis.  The vote was 4 to 3, with all FSLN magistrates
    plus Rivas voting in favor and all three PLC magistrates
    voting against.  However, in a move later criticized by many
    of their own party leaders, the PLC magistrates voted for a
    quorum and to hold a vote on the suspension of elections.
    PLC Deputies, including Enrique Quinonez and Maximino
    Rodriguez, told us such a decision could not have happened
    without the express authorization of Arnoldo Aleman and have
    publicly and privately criticized the decision.  Aleman
    defended the decision of the magistrates to uphold quorum,
    calling those who criticized the PLC magistrates as
    "innocents" and noting that the FSLN magistrates could have
    simply convened their "supplentes" to convene a quorum.  In a
    move likely to create more tension and political wrangling,
    the CSE also announced that it will name interim authorities
    to govern the municipalities once the current office holders'
    terms have finished.

    Next Steps
    - - - - - -

    ¶6. (C) According to Javier Williams, a prominent Atlantic
    Coast opposition politician, and several contacts in Puerto
    Cabezas, the police have begun systematically passing through
    the city to confiscate video recordings and erase digital
    pictures of the airport violence that demonstrate that
    Rivera's armed supporters opened fire on pro-vote supporters.
     They report that efforts are being made to keep people away
    from the media for fear they might further implicate Rivera,
    the governor, and the mayor.  In addition, contacts report
    that the police are making every effort to maintain the
    peace, even promising material assistance in exchange for
    cooperation.

    ¶7. (C) In addition to ongoing media campaigns, both anti- and
    pro-vote forces are reaching out to allies in other
    municipalities in the RAAN and the RAAS looking for support.
    The South Atlantic Autonomous Region (RAAS) Regional Council,
    together with the mayor of Bluefields, the capital of the
    RAAS, and other civil society groups has finalized a
    statement condemning the election delay and blaming Rivera,
    Yatama, and the FSLN for the violence.  Liberal leaders from
    the Mining Triangle cities of Rosita, Siuna, Bonanza, and
    Mulukuku, in the interior of the RAAN, traveled to Managua on
    Monday -- along with National Assembly deputy Victor Duarte
    -- to meet with both the Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC)
    and Vamos Con Eduardo (VCE) deputies to gain their support
    against election delays. Several leading deputies, including

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    Justice Committee Chair and PLC member Jose Pallais, have
    said the Assembly will take a number of steps, including
    legislation demanding that the CSE respect the original
    election date, filing injunctions against the CSE decision,
    and continuing to hold legislation the Ortega Administration
    wants hostage.

    ¶8.  (SBU) Civil society is also increasing its vocal
    opposition to the decision.  Movimento por Nicaragua is
    planning demonstrations in front of the CSE's Managua
    headquarters and reaching out to other NGOs to encourage them
    to participate as well.  Mayoral candidate and anti-FSLN
    Yatama leader Osorno "Blas" Coleman and Williams are trying
    to mobilize the participation of several hundred Miskito
    Indians from the RAAN living in Managua.  In addition, they
    are trying to coordinate simultaneous protests in Bluefields,
    Puerto Cabezas, Waspam, Prinzapolka, Rosita, Siuna, and
    Bonanza.

    Comment
    - - - -

    ¶9.  (C) Friday's violence in Puerto Cabezas and the decision
    by the CSE to cancel elections on flimsy political and legal
    grounds has raised the stakes in Nicaragua's struggle for
    democracy.  The rapid and violent response of pro-election
    advocates in the RAAN appears to have shocked FSLN leaders,
    but not stopped them from pressing forward with what was
    clearly a previously planned decision to suspend the
    elections.

    ¶10. (C) Ortega and other senior members of the administration
    have publicly advocated suspension of the elections for weeks
    under a wide range of weak excuses.  In addition to claiming
    ongoing damage from Hurricane Felix, Ortega has suggested
    that there "might be more hurricanes in the future." Other
    government supporters suggest that the current electoral
    system does not give proper respect to indigenous rights.
    Regardless, the clear motivation behind the suspension is
    two-fold: 1) the FSLN and their Yatama affiliates would
    likely lose the three municipalities due to deep resentment
    among voters over the failed hurricane response and every
    municipal victory will count in what is expected to be a
    referendum on Ortega in the November municipal elections; and
    2) as noted in ref A, there are personal financial
    motivations at stake among senior FSLN leadership from timber
    and property concessions that would be jeopardized should
    they lose control over the municipalities.  These dual
    motivations drove the CSE to act, and the outbreak of
    violence, whether orchestrated or not, delivered them the
    pretext to act sooner rather than later.

    ¶11. (C) While the events have stirred civil society and
    political opposition, it remains to be seen whether the
    election suspension will generate further cooperation and
    solidification within civil society and the opposition
    movement at a national level.  Individually, many of their
    leaders have told us that the suspension of the elections
    represents a grave threat to democracy and the rule of law.
    If the CSE can take these decisions, in defiance of electoral
    law, the Constitution and the National Assembly, they
    suggested, there would be little to stop them from doing the
    same or worse in other municipalities.  However, it is not
    clear whether civil society and the opposition will be able
    to sustain their effort or overturn the CSE's decision.
    Moreover, if Aleman was prepared to have his CSE magistrates
    support the FSLN in the decision to suspend the elections, he
    will be unlikely to allow PLC deputies or other judges to go
    too far in their efforts to overturn the decision.

    ¶12. (C) We also believe that the election suspension is just
    the FSLN's first step in re-drawing the political map of the
    RAAN and dismantling representative democracy in that
    poverty-stricken region.  During an April 3 dinner in honor
    of visiting Finnish Trade and Cooperation Minister Paavo
    Vayrynen, Vice Foreign Minister Valdrack Jaentschke suggested

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    that the elections should be suspended due to: a) the damaged
    psyche of the RAAN peoples; b) the need to not let the
    elections intrude when reconstruction falls into full swing
    later this year; and c) the need to reconsider the importance
    of indigenous participation in the electoral structure.
    Jaentschke observed that timber in the RAAN and RAAS should
    eventually be a USD 200 million a year business and hearkened
    back to the Coast's "glory days" in the late 19th century
    when timber, gold and other extractive industries were king.
    He further suggested that the current municipalities'
    geographic size "is too big to manage."  Other FSLN leaders
    on the Coast describe elections and private property as
    "merely Western constructs."  We believe the FSLN's long-term
    vision for the RAAN is clear -- more smaller towns separated
    by giant swatches of indigenous communal lands whose
    resources are controlled by tribal and community leaders --
    and exploited by FSLN-linked firms.
    TRIVELLI

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