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### Viewing cable 09BOGOTA3269, JUAN MANUEL SANTOS DISCUSSES PRESIDENTIAL PROSPECTS WITH

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09BOGOTA3269 | 2009-10-27 23:00 | 2011-04-09 07:30 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Bogota
Appears in these articles: http://www.eluniverso.com/2011/04/09/1/1355/cable-231676.html

`

    VZCZCXYZ0005
    RR RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHBO #3269/01 3002300
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    R 272300Z OCT 09
    FM AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0534
    INFO RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
    RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
    RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 0126
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0456
    RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 0482
    RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO
    RUEHZP/AMEMBASSY PANAMA

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 003269

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/10/27
    TAGS: PGOV PREL KJUS PHUM CO EC VE
    SUBJECT: JUAN MANUEL SANTOS DISCUSSES PRESIDENTIAL PROSPECTS WITH
    AMBASSADOR

    CLASSIFIED BY: William R. Brownfield, Ambassa...

    id: 231676
    date: 10/27/2009 23:00
    refid: 09BOGOTA3269
    origin: Embassy Bogota
    classification: CONFIDENTIAL
    destination:
    header:
    VZCZCXYZ0005
    RR RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHBO #3269/01 3002300
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    R 272300Z OCT 09
    FM AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0534
    INFO RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
    RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
    RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 0126
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0456
    RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 0482
    RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO
    RUEHZP/AMEMBASSY PANAMA

    ----------------- header ends ----------------

    C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 003269

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/10/27
    TAGS: PGOV PREL KJUS PHUM CO EC VE
    SUBJECT: JUAN MANUEL SANTOS DISCUSSES PRESIDENTIAL PROSPECTS WITH
    AMBASSADOR

    CLASSIFIED BY: William R. Brownfield, Ambassador; REASON: 1.4(B), (D)

    Summary

    -------

    ¶1. (C) Former Minister of Defense and pre-candidate for President
    Juan Manuel Santos told Ambassador October 23 he believes President
    Alvaro Uribe is leaning toward reelection but may fail to fulfill
    the legal and electoral steps to achieve it.  While promoting the
    third term for Uribe, Santos is positioning himself as Uribe's
    successor if necessary.  He thought his chances good against the
    remaining field of candidates, though much depends on what
    alliances are struck among them.  Regarding the U.S.-Colombia
    relationship, Santos said his country needed the United States to
    stand up against others in South America with a contrary political
    outlook.  End Summary.

    Uribe's "Crucible of the Soul"

    ------------------------------

    ¶2. (C) At a lunch hosted by Ambassador, former Minister of Defense
    Santos told the Ambassador that he remains dedicated to promoting
    President Uribe's third term prospects but will gladly step in as
    the U Party's presumptive candidate if those efforts are not
    successful.  Santos said he believed Uribe had been tending toward
    not running for reelection last May when Uribe gave him the
    go-ahead to resign from the Ministry of Defense so that Santos
    could run for President.  At that time, Santos said he thought
    Uribe's chances of changing the Constitution were good.

    ¶3. (C) That perception was changed, Santos said, by the illegal
    wiretap scandal at the Administrative Department of Security (DAS)
    and intimations by the International Criminal Court that it may
    entertain cases from Colombia when the GOC's reservation to the
    Treaty of Rome expires in November.  Santos perceived that Uribe
    viewed these events as potential setbacks to his Democratic
    Security Policy and, as a result, was now more desirous of a third
    term.  However, Santos believed that time was too short to carry
    out the steps remaining to achieve reelection.  He even doubted
    that Uribe could mobilize the 7.2 million votes necessary for the
    referendum to be valid.

    Candidate Santos

    ----------------

    ¶4. (C) If Uribe steps aside, Santos was certain he could win the
    presidency in two rounds, though much depended on how the other
    candidates might align before and after the first round.  He
    thought it unlikely that Conservative Party (PC) hopeful Noemi
    Sanin would join his campaign given their poor relationship.  The
    other PC pre-candidate, Andres Felipe Arias, is embroiled in a
    scandal over agricultural subsidies; Santos thought the young
    politician would be patient and wait for a future opportunity to
    make his run.  Santos detailed the Left's dilemma:  the Liberal
    Party (LP) can ally with fellow anti-reelection parties Democratic
    Alternative Pole (PDA) or Radical Change (CR), but not both given
    their contrary political leanings.  Santos discounted independent
    candidate Sergio Fajardo altogether, saying that his campaign had
    stagnated.  While the May 2010 elections were "an eternity" away in
    political terms, Santos imagined a scenario where he and Sanin
    finish in the top two, making the final round a contest against
    right-leaning candidates.

    Colombia Regional Relations

    ---------------------------

    ¶5. (C) Santos said he was disappointed at the Foreign Ministry's
    handling of the rapprochement with Ecuador.  The fact that a judge
    in Ecuador was seeking his extradition, along with Chief of Defense
    Freddy Padilla and Director of the Colombian National Police Oscar
    Naranjo, for the March 2008 attack on Raul Reyes' Revolutionary
    Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) camp in Ecuador was a problem for
    the Colombian State, he said.  Santos said the Foreign Ministry was
    too focused on restoring relations with Ecuador and was not doing
    enough to defend the high-ranking Colombian officials involved in
    the operation.

    ¶6. (C) He similarly criticized the Foreign Ministry for not doing
    more to isolate Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez internationally.
    He said the U.S.-Colombia Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA),
    which he initiated as Minister of Defense, was a strategic advance
    for Colombia to deter the threat from Venezuela.
    BROWNFIELD

    =======================CABLE ENDS============================

`