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### Viewing cable 07HELSINKI639, FINLAND'S LIKELY NEXT STEPS IN AFGHANISTAN

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07HELSINKI639 | 2007-08-20 11:25 | 2011-04-24 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Helsinki

`

    VZCZCXYZ0010
    RR RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHHE #0639/01 2321125
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    R 201125Z AUG 07
    FM AMEMBASSY HELSINKI
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3682
    INFO RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 0056
    RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 0946

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L HELSINKI 000639

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/17/2017
    TAGS: PREL MOPS MARR SNAR EAID PGOV NATO AF FI
    SUBJECT: FINLAND'S LIKELY NEXT STEPS IN AFGHANISTAN

    Classified By: POLITICAL CHIEF GREGORY THOME FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D
    )

    ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Budgetary realities and political
    discomfort amongst a few at the highest levels have
    currently put the brakes on the GOF's plan to increase
    its military commitments to NATO/ISAF in 2008.
    Meaningful increases in Finnish development and
    counternarcotics assistance to Afghanistan are probable
    -- and the idea of PRT leadership in 2009 remains very
    much on the table.  However, the 2008 national budget
    contains no funds for new or stepped-up peacekeeping
    operations (PKO).  The Ambassador has made the case to
    senior leadership that Finland ought to send more troops
    to Afghanistan sooner rather than later -- culminating
    in several additional senior-level meetings the week of
    Aug. 13.  However, it appears that Conservative
    politicians who committed early to contributing more
    troops to ISAF underestimated how strongly their own
    coalition partner, the Center Party -- as well as
    President Halonen -- would not support increases in
    ¶2008.  END SUMMARY.

    EARLY MOMENTUM FADES
    --------------------
    ¶2. (C) A mere two months ago, enthusiasm in the
    Ministries of Defense and Foreign Affairs was high
    regarding an increased Finnish role in Afghanistan.  In
    the wake of FM Ilkka Kanerva's June meeting with the
    Secretary and MOD Jyri Hakamies's trip to Afghanistan,

    SIPDIS
    both signaled their intentions to seek more Finnish
    troops for NATO/ISAF as well as increased funding for
    development, counternarcotics and rule of law programs.
    The MFA was instructed to prepare a wide ranging report
    to Parliament examining Finland's role in Afghanistan
    and the best ways to apply any additional resources.
    The report will be delivered to Parliament members in
    mid-September and publicly discussed in parliamentary
    session.  Contacts responsible for drafting it have told
    us privately that increases for 2008 appeared likely
    (Reftel A).

    ¶3. (C) Since then, however, significant political
    opposition has emerged.  Much of the most vociferous
    opposition came in response to Hakamies's public
    suggestion that the GOF should re-open the previous
    government's decision to deny a US/Afghan request that
    sought a donation of excess Finnish weapons to the
    Afghan National Police (ANP).  (Comment: The lethal
    equipment issue has been politically sensitive all along
    (Ref A), having been characterized both as legally
    permissible and legally prohibited.  End Comment.)  In
    addition, more measured opposition also came from those
    who argued that Finland's current level of participation
    in NATO/ISAF (about 104 troops at two Nordic-led PRTs)
    was sufficient.  Some Parliamentarians have argued that
    2008 budget realities do not permit troop increases,
    given Finland's numerous other ongoing PKO obligations
    and its very generous contribution of 240 troops to the
    UN's Southern Lebanon mission.  (NOTE: No other Nordic
    country sent ground troops to Lebanon following the
    Hezbollah-Israeli war last summer, and the GOF needed to
    pass a special budgetary supplemental in order to fund
    its 240-troop contribution.)  Leading Conservative
    politicians (led by Hakamies and Kanerva) and ministry
    officials expressed confidence that the report to
    Parliament would satisfy the nay-sayers.  However, in
    early August leading figures from the Center Party --
    the Conservatives' major coalition partner -- also began
    to voice misgivings.

    MONEY BUT NO NEW TROOPS
    -----------------------
    ¶4. (C) Senior officials and working level contacts in
    the MOD, MFA and Ministry of Finance now say that at the
    moment troop increases in Afghanistan appear unlikely in
    2008, although other forms of assistance are likely.  In
    an Aug. 14 meeting, a disappointed Kanerva told the
    Ambassador that he expected to win approval for Finnish
    contributions to a new EU-funded police training/rule of
    law mission, and quite probably additional development
    assistance.  However, he added, "I do not exclude the
    military side, but getting increases to our military
    contribution in Afghanistan will be very hard."  He
    noted that while many in government truly believed that
    sending more troops to Afghanistan was in Finland's
    national security interest, the Prime Minister and the
    President saw things differently.  In an Aug. 16
    meeting, PM Vanhanen confirmed this.  "Discussions
    within government are ongoing; nothing is final," he
    told us.  "But overall the atmosphere is such that we
    want to help (in Afghanistan), but changes in our
    military posture will not be significant."

    ¶5. (C) Separately, a Finance Ministry contact told
    PolChief that there simply is no money programmed into
    the 2008 budget for troop increases anywhere.  (NOTE:
    Finland currently supports Afghanistan with 10 million
    euros annually.)  The four parties in government are
    divided in their thinking about budgetary priorities,
    she said; in fact, political pressure within the cabinet
    to send troops to Darfur might currently outweigh the
    sentiment in favor of more forces for Afghanistan.  In
    either case, there is no budget supplemental in the
    works; without one ISAF commitments would have to remain
    level, and there can be no major contributions to
    Darfur.

    PLANS FOR PRT LEADERSHIP IN 2009 CONTINUE APACE
    --------------------------------------------- --
    ¶6. (U) Echoing what we had heard privately, Admiral
    Juhani Koskeala, the armed forces chief of staff, told
    the press Aug. 14 that budgetary constraints would
    prevent significant crisis management increases in 2008.
    However, he emphasized that taking leadership of a PRT
    in 2009 -- which would require troop increases --
    remains very much on the table.  In his view, the
    current level of Finnish participation at Meymenah and
    Mazar was sufficient until the 2009 ramp-up for PRT
    leadership began.

    ¶7. (C) The Ambassador spent the week of Aug. 13
    emphasizing to a range of senior officials that
    Afghanistan is a top priority.  In separate meetings,
    she underscored to the PM, to the FM, and to
    Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman how
    important it is for Finland to make new ISAF
    contributions sooner, rather than later.  Each
    interlocutor understood that the USG would be
    disappointed if the GOF could not do more in 2008.
    However, they also assured us that development and other
    assistance increases would be forthcoming and that
    planning for PRT leadership in 2009 would continue
    apace.  Kanerva, in particular, noted that plans for a
    "rotation" of leadership with the Swedes at the Mazar-
    al-Shariff PRT in 2009 remained quite active.

    COMMENT: CONSERVATIVES UNDERESTIMATE THEIR OPPONENTS
    --------------------------------------------- -------
    ¶8. (C) It may be that the Conservatives' ambitious plans
    were a classic case of early over-exuberance, which has
    been tempered over time in the face of political
    realities.  Indeed, Conservative politicians rode the
    wave of their election landslide holding two beliefs on
    Afghanistan:  first, that increasing the GOF's already
    significant PKO contributions was truly important for
    Finland's own national security; and second, that they
    could convince a skeptical PM and even more skeptical
    President of this fact.  However, President Halonen
    simply feels that Finland is currently doing enough in
    Afghanistan.  PM Vanhanen, meanwhile, keenly values his
    working relationship with Halonen, and faces staunch
    opposition within his own Center Party to increasing
    Finland's PKO profile; he therefore has absolutely no
    domestic political incentive to tangle with Halonen on
    the ISAF issue.

    NEXT STEPS
    ----------
    ¶9. (C) Finland's overall role in Afghanistan is still
    being hammered out.  The GOF's current troop commitment
    to ISAF remains solid, and we can continue to count on
    the Finns to do good work at the Meymenah and Mazar
    PRTs.  We also expect other significant assistance,
    including more development aid; counterdrug efforts; and
    Finnish police and judicial trainers as part of the EU's
    rule of law mission.  And as noted, PRT leadership
    remains very much in the planning cards for 2009; we
    will continue to work hard with the Finns to make this a
    reality.
    HYATT

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