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### Viewing cable 08PANAMA493, PANAMA POST: EDITION 11; VOLUME II

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08PANAMA493 | 2008-06-16 16:08 | 2011-05-31 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Panama

`

    VZCZCXYZ0000
    RR RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHZP #0493/01 1681608
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    R 161608Z JUN 08
    FM AMEMBASSY PANAMA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2179
    INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
    RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
    RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 000493

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/13/2018
    TAGS: PGOV PREL PM
    SUBJECT: PANAMA POST:  EDITION 11; VOLUME II

    REF: PANAMA 469 (AND PREVIOUS)

    Classified By: POLCOUNS Brian R. Naranjo.  Reasons:  1.4 (b) and (d).

    ------
    Summary
    ------

    ¶1.  (C)  Our headlines in this edition of the Panama Post are:

    -- Panama's leading pollster says "basic political dynamic
    remains unchanged;"
    -- Tearing a page from PRD presidential nomination candidate
    Juan Carlos Navarro's play book, Panamenista presidential
    nomination candidate Alberto Vallarino releases an internal
    poll;
    -- Navarro and Vallarino get in trouble with the Electoral
    Tribunal (TE) for releasing polls;
    -- Former President Ernesto "El Toro" Perez Balladares takes
    a shot at PRD presidential nomination candidates Balbina
    Herrera and at President Torrijos;
    -- a dentist (and gadfly Panamenista presidential nomination
    candidate) takes aim at Panamenista contender Juan Carlos
    Varela;
    -- Herrera effectively uses internet to pull in and harness
    youth support.

    End Summary.

    --------------------------------------------- --------------
    Leopoldo Neira: "Basic Political Dynamic Remains Unchanged"
    --------------------------------------------- --------------

    ¶2. (C) "If the general elections were held today," leading
    Panama City-based polling agency Dichter and Neira Executive
    President Leopoldo Neira told POLCOUNS on June 12, "the
    (governing Revolutionary Democratic Party) PRD -- whether
    Balbina or Navarro -- would win easily."  Contrary to what
    other polls were indicating, Neira added, "The basic
    political dynamic remains unchanged."  Categorically
    rejecting the notion that the PRD primary race was becoming
    competitive, Neira said that Balbina Herrera still had a
    commanding lead in the internal PRD race leading Juan Carlos
    Navarro by some twenty points.  Furthermore and again
    contrary to what other polling had indicated, the Panamenista
    primary race remained a horse race; "Vallarino and Varela are
    essentially tied."  "Essentially, all the candidates have
    more or less stayed at the same levels.  Nobody has
    significantly changed the political dynamic."

    ¶3. (C) According to Neira, to date attacks on Balbina
    labeling her a dangerous, Chavez-style populist had had no
    effect on her standing in the polls.  Furthermore, he said he
    was mystified by the results uncovered by his polls that
    indicated that President Torrijos was still widely popular.
    "How can Martin have such high approval ratings when he gets
    such horrible grades for following through on his campaign
    pledges and for governing?" he asked rhetorically.
    Panamanian political behavior was highly personalistic and
    basically boiled to a what-am-I-going-to-get-out-of-this
    mentality, Neira explained.  In his experience, candidates
    who were willing to grind it out, shake every hand they
    could, visit personally everybody they could, and slave for
    the election would eventually win.  In light of this view,
    Neira said he was not prepared to write off Navarro in the
    PRD primary, gave the advantage to Varela in the tight
    Panamenista race, and thought that Martinelli would be
    competitive in the generals.

    ¶4. (C) Sharing advanced results of Dichter and Neira's June
    poll -- expected to be published shortly in Panama City daily
    Panama America, Neira passed the following overall results:

                          May          June
                          ---          ----
    Balbina Herrera       26.1         25.8
    Ricardo Martinelli    19.3         19.3
    Juan Carlos Navarro   14.8         14.8
    Juan Carlos Varela     6.0          6.5
    Alberto Vallarino      4.2          5.8
    Guillermo Endara       1.3          1.0
    Laurentino Cortizo     0.2          0.4
    Marco Ameglio          0.1          0.3
    Will Not Vote          0.4          0.3
    None                  12.0         10.1
    Don't Know/No Answer  15.2         15.8

    ¶5. (C) Comment:Dichter and Neira just went through a nasty
    break-up with Panama City broadsheet La Prensa.  Neira
    explained that that La Prensa had insisted on exclusive
    rights to publicize his polls rejecting requests to all the
    information to be more widely distributed through radio and
    television.  Neira is now working with Panama America, W
    Radio, and TVN to share this information more widely "in the
    public interest."  Clearly bruised by attacks on his
    company's name -- attacks insinuating that commercial
    insights swayed his polls, that the company was fixing the
    results, etc. -- Neira said he would share his final,
    non-publicized polling data collected in the final two weeks
    of the campaign during which period polling results may not
    be publicized.  He said he would pass this data to the
    Catholic Church, the Electoral Tribunal (TE), and now the
    U.S. Embassy.  Neira estimated that well less than five
    percent of Dichter and Neira's business was connected
    political polling.  Annually, the company did about 800
    opinion studies of various kinds releasing about three
    reports each day.  Neira said that over the years Dichter and
    Neira had invested significant time, energy, and money in
    fine tuning its demographic database, the only database of
    its kind among Panamanian pollsters.  Political polling was
    essentially the firm's "loss leader" keeping the firm's brand
    in the front of Panamanians minds.  Most of the company's
    pollsters are on permanent contract and, because of the
    steady rhythm of its opinion surveys, are basically fully
    employed.  On its political polls, Dichter and Neira deploys
    its executives -- including Neira himself -- to ensure high
    quality data collection and oversight and the executives
    generally account for half of its political pollsters.
    Dichter and Neira has called all of Panama's elections and
    referenda since the restoration of democracy in 1989 within a
    couple of points.  The Panama Post eagerly accepted Neira's
    offer to receive Dichter and Neira's polling results
    throughout the political season.

    --------------------------------------------- --
    Dueling Polls: Vallarino Releases Internal Poll
    --------------------------------------------- --

    ¶6. (U) "The campaign center of Engineer Alberto Vallarino has
    decided to publish an extract of two polls conducted by our
    campaign," a campaign "Special Announcement" declared on
    albertopresidente.com on June 6.  "We have taken this
    decision -- departing from what until now had been our policy
    -- with the aim of confronting a disinformation campaign
    directed against Panamenista presidential pre-candidates."
    Leading with this declaration, Panamenista Party presidential
    nomination candidate Alberto Vallarino strove to respond to
    "disorienting polls" some of which were "manipulated" that
    showed Panamenista candidates receiving very low support
    "that do not track with the size of our party nor with the
    dynamic that we have observed in recent months.  The
    Vallarino campaign released redacted results from the March
    and April polls that it commissioned from Venezuelan polling
    outfit DOXA.  The campaign asserted, that as a Venezuelan
    pollster, DOXA did not have "commercial commitments with any
    company in Panama."

    ¶7. (U) Highlights of this poll include:

    -- Overwhelming majorities of those polled stated in March
    (84%) and April (78%) that Panama was headed in the wrong
    direction.  While a steady number believed things would
    improve over the coming year (34% in March and 33% in April),
    majorities thought that conditions would get worse (47% in
    March and 35% in April) or much worse (11% in March and 12%
    in April).
    -- Among Panamenista candidates, Vallarino had the highest
    positives (46% and 50% in March and April) and lowest
    negatives (36% and 33%).  Fellow Panamenista candidate Juan
    Carlos Varela's positives were 35% and 41% and his negatives
    were 41% and 42% in March and April respectively.
    -- The poll showed Vallarino closing the gap with Varela.
    According to DOXA, in March Varela led Vallarino by 4 points
    (38% to 34%), and in April Varela led Vallarino by 2 points
    (31% to 29%.  Those stating that they would not vote jumped
    50 percent, from 14% in March to 22% in April.
    -- Among leading opposition candidates, at 22%, Vallarino was
    essentially tied in April with Varela and Democratic Change
    (CD) candidate Ricardo Martinelli who both polled 23% on a
    question assessing who the preferred opposition candidate
    was.  Compared to March, Varela's  and Vallarino's numbers
    were essentially the same (22% for Vallarino and 24% for
    Varela in March), but Martinelli fell 4 points.
    -- Among governing Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD)
    candidates, Balbina Herrera was the preferred choice, though
    Navarro was making up some ground.  From March to April,
    Herrera fell from 51% to 38%, while Navarro rose from 24% to
    27%.
    -- In April, asked to choose from among the three leading
    Panamenista candidates, 55% of respondents chose Vallarino,
    33% chose Varela, and 7%  chose Ameglio.  In April, asked to
    choose only between Vallarino and Varela, Vallarino's numbers
    fell to 50% and Varela rose to 39%.  Vallarino's numbers
    improved on these two questions from March to April while
    Varela's remained essentially stagnant.
    -- Asked in April only who was most capable of unifying the
    opposition, Vallarino out polled Varela by ten points (42% to
    32%) and Ameglio was a distant third at 5%.  A total of 20%
    did not know or respond.

    ¶8. (U) Technical information:  The polls were conducted
    nationally, except in the provinces of Bocas del Toro and
    Darien and in the indigenous reservations (comarcas).  A
    total of 1,200 individuals were interviewed for the general
    questions, and a total of 500 Panamenista party registered
    members were interviewed for the party-specific questions.
    The poll has a 95 percent confidence rating and a margin of
    error of  /- 3 percent.

    ¶9. (C)  Comment:  In releasing an internal poll, Vallarino is
    lifting a play from PRD presidential nomination candidate
    Navarro's play book.  One major difference, aside from the
    fact that Navarro's poll was more current, though is that
    Navarro's release of his PSM SigmaDos poll included much more
    context and technical data regarding the poll.  Both of these
    DOXA polls were conducted before the CID Gallup, Dichter and
    Neira, and PSM SigmaDos polls suggested that Varela was
    beating Vallarino in the internal Panamenista race.  The
    technical data provided in this "special announcement" is
    incomplete.  The dates of the field work are unknown.  The
    methodology -- face-to-face or telephone interviews; randomly
    selected neighborhoods and homes or street interviews;
    numbers of people interviewed per home/site; etc. -- is also
    not clear.  The responses concerning the overall direction of
    Panama track very closely with other polling.  The DOXA poll
    shows a wider gap between Herrera and Navarro, but then these
    polls covered earlier periods than polling that suggests a
    narrower gap.  Where this poll differences significantly is
    that it suggests that Martinelli, Vallarino, and Varela are
    closer in the opposition-wide race and that Vallarino is out
    pacing Varela by 20  points, results that do not track with
    other polling outfits' more recent results.  Given the murky
    data laid out in this "special announcement" and the less
    than satisfying technical data, the release of this internal
    polling information can only be understood as an effort to
    stem what has become a negative narrative for Vallarino, a
    narrative that suggests that Vallarino is underperforming and
    not meeting expectations.  Perhaps the most telling tidbit of
    data circulated in this announcement -- at least the aspect
    that Vallarino wants to push the most -- is the result of
    this poll that suggests that Vallarino is the Panamenista
    candidate most capable of unifying the opposition.

    --------------------------------------------- ------------
    Vallarino (and Navarro) Get in Trouble Over Poll Releases
    --------------------------------------------- ------------

    ¶10. (U) The Electoral Tribunal (TE) launched June 9 an
    investigation into the release of internal polling data by
    two campaigns, the campaigns of Panamenista presidential
    nomination candidate Alberto Vallarino (see paras 2-5) and
    PRD presidential nomination candidate Juan Carlos Navarro
    (REFTEL).  Panama City broadsheet daily La Prensa reported
    that one TE source indicated that Vallarino's DOXA poll had
    not been registered with the TE.  While Navarro's poll had
    been registered, this source told La Prensa that there had
    been irregularities in the information that Navarro's
    campaign released.  The campaigns will have three days to
    respond to the investigation.

    ¶11. (C) Comment: To prevent monkey business with polls, all
    polling results must be registered with the TE.  Since
    Panama's major media outlets broke ties with Panama's leading
    polling outfits over the past couple of months, polling
    results tend to circulate by word of mouth and via informal
    e-mail mass mailings.  The Panama Post has had significant
    success procuring polling results directly from campaigns and
    candidates and routinely scours the internet for the latest
    posts.  Absent reliable and regular publication of polling by
    media outlets and tempted to use polling results to their
    advantage, the campaigns themselves may be inclined to
    distribute polling results directly themselves.  That the TE
    has acted quickly to examine this new practice is an example
    of the TE's forward-leaning posture.  The maximum penalty for
    this kind of electoral misdeed is USD 25,000.

    -----------------------------------------
    El Toro Takes a Shot at Balbina, Torrijos
    -----------------------------------------

    ¶12. (U) Former President Ernesto "El Toro" Perez Balladares
    took shots at PRD presidential nomination candidate Balbina
    Herrera and President Torrijos during his June 9 appearance
    on the talk show "Enfoque (Focus)" and in the wake of his
    endorsement of PRD presidential nomination candidate Juan
    Carlos Varela.  El Toro questioned why Herrera sought the
    "blessing" of the U.S. Embassy before launching her campaign,
    noting that he never would have "consulted" with the embassy.
     Continuing, he asserted that Herrera was now traveling to
    the U.S. to meet with the Council of the Americas -- "a
    foundation established by the Rockafellers" -- to try to
    prove that she was not a leftist, "which she is."  Regarding
    his own Category I U.S. visa ineligibility for alien
    smuggling, El Toro excoriated the Torrijos Administration for
    failing in its "patriotic responsibility" by not "demanding"
    proof from the USG for the grounds for "canceling" his visa,
    something he characterized (again) as a political matter.  El
    Toro asserted that Torrijos had been blocking "diplomatic"
    efforts to restore his visa.  The former president said that
    he would keep open the office of running for re-election in
    ¶2014.

    ¶13. (C) Comment:  Appearing on the El Toro-friendly program
    "Enfoque"  -- Dorita Reyna, the show's host, and her family
    received checks in connection with the PECC corruption
    scandal, a scandal that also lined the pockets of El Toro --
    Perez Balladares made his most visible appearance in his
    efforts to offer "political support" to Navarro.  It is
    unclear what impact these barbs will have on the campaign.
    For the record:  the Embassy obviously did not "bless"
    Herrera's candidacy, but has sustained routine political
    contact with this leading PRD politician just as the Embassy
    does with politicians across Panama's political spectrum.

    ---------------------------
    Dentist Takes Aim at Varela
    ---------------------------

    ¶14. (U) Making a media splash in the June 10 newspapers,
    Panamenista presidential candidate Jorge Gamboa took aim at
    fellow contender Juan Carlos Varela by insinuating that he
    did not have "clean hands," Varela's campaign slogan, and
    that he had a "double campaign" to take the Panamenista party
    into alliance "with external forces" be accepting a VP slot.
    Gamboa demanded that Varela explain whether he was receiving
    campaign financing from a "Costa Rican-Panamanian scandal"
    involving the (Catholic) Episcopal Conference of Costa Rica
    and Servicios Pastorales Latinoamericanos, S.A., a Panamanian
    company set up by the conference.  Gamboa noted that the
    General Superintendency of Financial Entities of Costa Rica
    (SUGEF) had ordered the conference to cease its "intermediary
    financial operations" and return to investors all funds
    invested in the Panamanian company, an order that the
    conference allegedly ignored. Gamboa asserted there was a
    hidden link to Varela since Panamenista Party VP Alvaro
    Aleman had established the Panamanian company.  Referring to
    the March 6, 2007 "Pese Pact (Pacto de Pese) between CD
    presidential candidate Ricardo Martinelli and Varela, Gamboa
    also asked Varela to explain his "double campaign with an
    outside campaign" to draw the Panamenista Party into an
    alliance while only securing the VP slot on the ticket.

    ¶15. (C) Comment:  This gadlfy candidate -- one of the Panama
    Post's contacts in the Panamenista Movement for Action (MAPA)
    -- has been angling for media attention ever since the last
    minute filing of his candidacy and after being denied a place
    on the dais for two Panamenista debates. (Note:  Only the top
    three polling candidates Varela, Vallarino, and Varela were
    offered the opportunity to debate.  Gamboa, a dentist, is
    nowhere in the polls.)  The charges of receiving funds from
    the Costa Rican Episcopal Conference are unlikely to go very
    far.  Aleman's bread and butter in his legal practice is
    establishing corporations like the one he established for the
    conference.  Also, no case has been made there was any wrong
    doing in Panama as far as setting up this company;
    allegations of wrong-doing seem, at least for the moment, to
    be contained in Costa Rica.  Also, there has been no
    indication that any amount of funds have found their way from
    Costa Rica through this company across Aleman's desk and into
    Varela's pocket.  The more damaging charge though is the
    accusation that Varela wants to take the party into alliance
    while only securing the VP slot.  Playing second fiddle in
    the opposition is anathema to Panamenista movers and shakers
    as well as rank-and-file, particularly if the likely alliance
    partner is Ricardo Martinelli and his CD party.

    --------------------------------------
    Balbina's Impressive Internet Presence
    --------------------------------------

    ¶16. (U) "The use of on-line technology is tied to the fact
    that 65,000 new young voters will participate in the 2009
    presidential elections," La Prensa journalist Manuel Vega Loo
    wrote on June 1, 2008. POL Rangel Fellow has been reviewing
    internet presence during the presidential primary elections.
    The internet has been a vital resource to Panama's
    presidential candidates, allowing them to establish grass
    roots support among the youth. Candidates have used social
    networking sites Facebook, Myspace, Flickr, and YouTube to i)
    mobilize youth supporters, ii) publicize their platforms,
    iii) recruit campaign volunteers, and iv) increase party
    membership. Competing political parties have registered over
    5,000 Facebook users and will continue to expand their
    audience as the election develops.

    ¶17. (SBU) PRD presidential candidate Balbina Herrera has the
    most effectively implemented internet strategy. Herrera was
    the first presidential candidate to accept POL's on-line
    registration request to Facebook and responded in less than
    one day. Herrera's campaign responded promptly with e-mails
    promoting her position on relevant political issues including
    the global food crisis and the high cost of political
    campaigns. Herrera also used Facebook to publicize campaign
    activities and recruit campaign volunteers. Our Rangel Fellow
    on the beat received an invitation to attend one of Herrera's
    youth rallies on June 7, 2008 in Panama City's working class
    neighborhood, Santa Ana. Herrera's on-line Facebook
    administrator also followed up with an invitation to meet in
    person. PRD presidential candidate Juan Carlos Navarro
    responded to POL's registration request seven days later on
    June 9, 2008. POL has not received a response from
    presidential candidates Martinelli, Varela, or Vallarino.

    ¶18. (SBU) "Balbina promises the Panamanian youth a strong
    voice in Government," a Balbina youth volunteer told POL at
    the campaign rally in Santa Ana. A total of 35 youth
    volunteers gathered to campaign for Herrera in Circuito 8-7,
    Panama's second largest voting district. The youth
    demographic, ages 18-30, is a vital component to the PRD
    party, comprising 30% of party membership. Herrera's platform
    seeks to directly address issues important to Panamanian
    youth: education reform and job security. Her promise to
    place fresh young faces in office strengthens her favor among
    young voters. Youth supporters also organized additional
    campaigns to take place simultaneously in Tocumen and
    Chorrillo.

    EATON

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