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### Viewing cable 06KINGSTON230, A TWO-HORSE RACE": PHILLIPS AIDE HANDICAPS

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06KINGSTON230 | 2006-02-03 19:04 | 2011-05-27 10:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Kingston
Appears in these articles: http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110527/lead/lead1.html

`

    VZCZCXYZ0027
    PP RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHKG #0230/01 0341904
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 031904Z FEB 06
    FM AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2150
    INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 000230

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CAR (BENT)

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2016
    TAGS: PGOV KCRM PINR JM
    SUBJECT: "A TWO-HORSE RACE":  PHILLIPS AIDE HANDICAPS
    FEBRUARY 25 INTERNAL PNP ELECTION TO SUCCEED PM PATTERSON

    REF: 05 KINGSTON 458

    Classified By: Ambassador Brenda LaGrange Johnson.  Reasons 1.4(b) and
    (d).

    -------
    Summary
    -------

    ¶1. (C) On January 30, a close confidant of National Security
    Minister Peter Phillips discussed the campaigns of Phillips,
    Local Government, Community and Sport Minister Portia Simpson
    Miller, Finance Minister Omar Davies, and former Water and
    Housing Minister Karl Blythe to succeed P.J. Patterson as
    party leader and prime minister.  With the internal PNP
    election set for February 25, our contact was confident that
    Phillips has sewn up sufficient backing among the 4000 voting
    PNP delegates, and locked in the support of a majority of the
    PNP's parliamentary group.  He echoed frequent criticisms of
    Simpson Miller that she is ill-prepared to be prime minister,
    faulted Davies for running his campaign badly, and dismissed
    Blythe as standing no chance.  Our contact also judged it
    unlikely that significant violence would erupt surrounding
    the February 25 election, and he expressed concern at several
    unsavory political operatives with Simpson Miller's campaign.
     Many PNP-ers fault Patterson for not having sewn up the
    succession issue more cleanly and quietly.  End Summary.

    ¶2. (C) On January 30, XXXXXXXXXXXX (protect), a senior aide
    to, and confidant of, National Security Minister Peter
    Phillips, discussed with DCM and P/ECouns the state of play
    leading up to the February 25 Peoples National Party (PNP)
    internal election.  The PNP election is being held to
    determine which of four senior PNP officials -- Phillips;
    Minister of Local Government, Community and Sport Portia
    Simpson Miller; Finance Minister Omar Davies; or former PNP
    minister Karl Blythe -- will succeed P.J. Patterson as party
    president and as prime minister.

    -----------------------------
    Phillips Confident of Victory
    -----------------------------

    ¶3. (C) Noting that the winning candidate need only secure a
    plurality among approximately 4000 PNP delegates authorized
    to vote on February 25, XXXXXXXXXXXX said that after more than
    two years of nationwide campaigning and quiet, grassroots political organizational work, Phillips has received firm
    commitments of support from perhaps 1500 delegates - far
    more, he maintained, than any of the other candidates.  He
    readily acknowledged that Simpson Miller enjoys nationwide
    personal popularity far in excess of Phillips or the other
    candidates, but emphasized that February 25 will be a contest
    among voting PNP delegates only, while adding that Phillips
    enjoys the backing of a majority of PNP Members of
    Parliament.  In a sly aside, XXXXXXXXXXXX observed that Phillips
    "believes he has the support of the U.S. Embassy."  DCM
    agreed that we have worked closely with Phillips on security
    and law enforcement issues, and appreciated both the
    Minister's pragmatism and his willingness to cooperate in
    matters of mutual concern.  DCM added, however, that we have
    also worked well - if less closely given their respective
    current portfolios - with Simpson Miller and Davies.

    ¶4. (C) In XXXXXXXXXXXX's estimation, Phillips and Portia Simpson
    Miller are the only viable candidates.  "It's a two-horse
    race," he enthused.  Like many of her critics, XXXXXXXXXXXX
    opined that Simpson Miller lacks the substance to be prime
    minister.  (Note:  On February 2, Simpson Miller reportedly
    pulled out of a four-way, nationally televised debate between
    the four PNP candidates, citing previous commitments and
    uncertainties about the firmness of the date.  Not
    surprisingly, her critics were quick to point to her
    withdrawal as evidence that Simpson Miller was afraid to risk
    facing her opponents in such a forum.  End note.)
    Furthermore, said XXXXXXXXXXXX, key PNP leaders and supporters
    would refuse to back Simpson Miller even if she were to
    prevail among the delegates.  He listed Foreign Minister K.D.
    Knight, who has declared his support for Phillips and who
    clashed memorably and profanely with Simpson Miller in
    Parliament in 2005, as particularly opposed to Simpson
    Miller, with the influential Education Minister, Sharon
    Hay-Webster, similarly disposed.  Reminded that Simpson
    Miller is easily the most popular politician of either party
    with the masses, XXXXXXXXXXXX, without disputing the point,
    replied that "they don't necessarily want to see one of their
    own up there" as prime minister.

    -------------------

    Corruption Concerns
    -------------------

    ¶5. (C) Perhaps for effect, XXXXXXXXXXXX professed concern about
    support for Simpson Miller's campaign from notably
    unscrupulous figures such as Paul Burke, a 1970's-era
    radical-turned-businessman and backroom PNP operative.
    XXXXXXXXXXXX described Burke as being politically savvy and
    intellectually gifted, and therefore of great use to Simpson
    Miller's campaign.  At the same time, he said, given Burke's
    past shady dealings and associations, Burke had attached
    himself to Simpson Miller's campaign because he is able to
    exercise greater influence with her, and because he hopes to
    benefit from a Simpson Miller victory.  Minister of Commerce,
    Science, Technology, and Energy Phillip Paulwell is another
    PNP "politician with a past" who is backing Simpson Miller,
    said XXXXXXXXXXXX.  (Note:  Paulwell, reportedly a longtime
    associate of and close collaborator with Burke, was a rising
    political star until 2001, when he approved a USD 4 million
    loan to a private telecom company known to be in financial
    trouble, and which subsequently collapsed.  End note.)

    ----------------------------------------
    Davies and Blythe:  XXXXXXXXXXXX's Also-Rans
    ----------------------------------------

    ¶6. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX was entirely dismissive of Karl Blythe's
    low-profile campaign, saying that Phillips had won over key
    delegates from under Blythe's nose, in Blythe's own home
    constituency. He characterized Blythe as erratic and
    unpredictable, and observed that he seemed to be in the race
    "because of ego."  (Note:  Blythe was forced to resign as
    Water and Housing Minister in 2002 after he was found to have
    acted improperly in supervising a low-income housing grant
    program.  End note.)  Though more respectful of Finance
    Minister Omar Davies and his "Campaign for Prosperity",
    XXXXXXXXXXXX said that Davies has run his campaign badly thus
    far, causing private sector donors to lose faith and reduce
    considerably their funding for his effort.  According to
    XXXXXXXXXXXX, Patterson persuaded Davies to enter the race to
    provide a more promising (and palatable) alternative than
    Blythe to Phillips and Simpson Miller, and because Patterson
    harbors long-standing grudges against both Phillips and
    Simpson Miller.  Patterson, he explained, has never forgotten
    that it was Phillips who conveyed then-Prime Minister Michael
    Manley's 1991 request for Patterson's resignation as Finance
    Minister after Patterson was found to have improperly waived
    fuel import duties for a PNP crony who was also the local
    manager for a multinational petroleum company.  As for
    Simpson Miller, she earned Patterson's ire by daring to run
    (unsuccessfully, as it turned out) against him to succeed
    Manley in 1992, and by frequently missing or arriving late to
    Cabinet meetings over the years, which Patterson viewed as a
    lack of respect for his authority.

    ------------------------------------
    PNP:  Unity or Internecine Violence?
    ------------------------------------

    ¶7. (C) Asked to assess prospects for electoral violence
    (among supporters of the various PNP candidates) around the
    February 25 election date, XXXXXXXXXXXX conceded the possibility
    of localized incidents.  He downplayed the likelihood of
    widespread violence, however, saying that he expected the
    party to unite - however grudgingly - behind the winner.
    Patterson has publicly declared his intention to turn over
    the reins to a successor by April.  Publicly and behind the
    scenes, he will do everything he can to resolve any disputes
    among the contenders or between the factions to preserve
    party unity for the next elections, which are due by October
    ¶2007.  Moreover, XXXXXXXXXXXX continued, most PNP supporters also understand that, regardless of who succeeds Patterson in
    February, that individual will need the backing of a unified
    party to prevail over the JLP's Bruce Golding in the general
    election.  Given any government's control of resources, he
    said, PNP loyalists can be expected to circle wagons behind
    their party's leader rather than face the prospect of being
    voted out of office.

    -------
    Comment
    -------

    ¶8. (C) We had the distinct impression that XXXXXXXXXXXX's
    willingness to discuss the campaign suited his boss.
    Notwithstanding his close affiliation with Phillips, however,
    XXXXXXXXXXXX's reflections offer useful insights into the
    internal PNP maneuvering to succeed Patterson.  XXXXXXXXXXXX's
    assessment that Phillips and Simpson Miller are the two most

    likely victors on February 25 tracks with what we are hearing
    elsewhere, publicly and privately.  That said, we note that
    Blythe has already surprised most observers when, in February
    2005 (Ref B), he easily outpolled Simpson Miller and Phillips
    in the race for one of the four PNP vice-presidencies.  For
    his part, Davies is both respected and reviled for,
    respectively, his adroit handling of the GOJ's tricky
    financial situation, and for whatever economic discomfort
    Jamaicans attribute to his policies.  The Finance Minister's
    Achilles heel in the race might also be the perception among
    some in his party (including delegates) that, unlike Phillips
    and Simpson Miller, he has not sufficiently paid his dues by
    moving through a succession of PNP positions over the years.
    Jamaican politics are not for the faint-hearted or for the
    pure, and all four candidates doubtless have their skeletons.
     That said, the involvement of Paul Burke, Danhai Williams,
    Kenneth "Skeng Don" Black, and their ilk with the Simpson
    Miller campaign - or indeed any other - is cause for some
    concern.

    ¶9. (C) Comment (cont'd):  The JLP, with its long history of
    fractiousness, underwent a particularly messy and very public
    leadership succession struggle in 2004-2005, while the PNP
    has always prided itself on its ability to resolve its
    differences internally.  After 14 years in office, Patterson
    is stepping down having become Jamaica's most successful
    politician by winning the past four general elections.
    Still, his refusal or failure to sew up the succession issue
    more cleanly has already led to what some party faithful
    consider an unseemly battle, with four prominent PNP
    candidates publicly enumerating each others' faults and
    failures before a national audience.  XXXXXXXXXXXX may well be
    correct in predicting that PNP's need for unity will prevail
    over the possibility of violence in the run-up to, or
    following, the February 25 party election.  We certainly hope
    so, as PNP supporters from whichever camp presumably would
    not want to give undecided voters reason to prefer the PNP in
    the general elections, which must be held by October 2007.
    Given what is at stake later this month, however - leadership
    of the PNP and the country leading into general elections,
    and with the PNP having formed the government since 1989 -
    the possibility that one or another faction's supporters will
    be dissatisfied with the outcome, and willing to cause
    trouble, cannot be dismissed.

    ¶10.  (SBU) Further developments in the PNP succession saga
    will unfold in the coming days.  All four PNP candidates had
    agreed to square off in a one-off, nationally televised
    debate on February 7, which would have forced them more
    clearly to define themselves vis-a-vis their opponents.
    Simpson Miller's "unavailability", if true, could reasonably
    be interpreted as evidence that she does not wish to risk
    embarrassment, but organizational questions surrounding the
    event (unrelated to her participation) have also cast doubt
    as to whether the debate will come off.  Either way, one or
    more of the weaker candidates may well withdraw at some point
    before February 25 after negotiating with one of the stronger
    camps to support their candidate...for a price.
    JOHNSON

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