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### Viewing cable 06PARIS1966, FORMER PRESIDENT GISCARD D'ESTAING ON A TROUBLED

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06PARIS1966 | 2006-03-27 16:28 | 2011-02-10 08:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Paris
Appears in these articles: http://abonnes.lemonde.fr/documents-wikileaks/article/2011/02/09/wikileaks-les-visiteurs-de-l-ambassade_1477418_1446239.htm

`

    VZCZCXRO2980
    PP RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
    DE RUEHFR #1966/01 0861628
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 271628Z MAR 06
    FM AMEMBASSY PARIS
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5635
    INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 PARIS 001966

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2016
    TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON ELAB FR EUN PINR
    SUBJECT: FORMER PRESIDENT GISCARD D'ESTAING ON A TROUBLED
    FRANCE, UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, AND NEXT STEPS FOR
    THE EU

    Classified By: Ambassador Craig Stapleton for reasons 1.4 (B & D).

    ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In a March 21 meeting with the Ambassador,
    Former President Valery Giscard d'Estaing characterized the
    current social upheaval in France over the First Employment
    Contract as the latest episode in France's deep-seated
    resistance to change ("in no way pre-revolutionary"). He
    argued for change through the creation of prosperity --
    either through "shock treatment" or more incremental steps --
    as the only way forward. Giscard seemed to view a Segolene
    Royal/Dominique Strauss-Kahn ticket as representing the
    center-left's best chance for victory in the 2007
    presidential elections, although these two mainstream
    politicians might have difficulty obtaining the support of
    the Socialist party's left wing. While clearly not enamored
    of Nicolas Sarkozy, whom he viewed as lacking in true
    presidential stature, Giscard was convinced he would be the
    candidate on the center-right, barring some unforeseen crisis
    that would allow Chirac to continue. Giscard argued that
    French voters are not anti-EU but are anti-enlargement. He
    asserted that they will be prepared after the elections to
    vote again on the EU constitutional treaty or renegotiate the
    existing text, but worried that the UK is drifting away from
    Europe. He lamented the absence of a true European leader,
    with the potential exception of German Chancellor Merkel, but
    described the Franco-German relationship as a rock for the
    ages. END SUMMARY.

    ¶2. (C) The Ambassador met March 21 with a relaxed,
    expansive, and incisively insightful former centrist
    President Valery Giscard d'Estaing to discuss the current
    wave of unrest sweeping across France in opposition to the
    First Employment Contract (CPE), the domestic political scene
    in the run-up to the 2007 presidential elections, and next
    steps for Europe.

    CPE AND FRENCH AMBIVALENCE TOWARD CHANGE
    ----------------------------------------

    ¶3. (C) Asked for his assessment of the current wave of
    strikes and demonstrations in reaction to the CPE, Giscard
    explained that regular bouts of turbulence were the norm for
    France since the French Revolution and reflected the deep
    reluctance, even resistance, of French society to change.
    This partly reflected France's history as a nation of
    hard-working, taciturn farmers, not open to the world, who
    had little in common with the free-traders of the Netherlands
    or the UK. While French society had produced its own "model"
    and could claim a glorious past, the fact was that its model
    was now obsolete, and no longer capable of producing economic
    growth. Giscard described a society on the defensive,
    characterized psychologically by negativism and rejection of
    anything new. This, as much as anything else, had played a
    role in French rejection of the EU constitutional treaty, and
    it was at play now in widespread opposition to the CPE.

    ¶4. (C) Calling the CPE "unnecessary but acceptable in
    substance," Giscard noted that two-thirds of the
    demonstrators, namely employees in the public sector and
    civil servants, would not be affected in any way by the CPE.
    He characterized business as largely silent. (Comment: In
    fact, business leaders tend to see the CPE as a small, if not
    sufficient, step forward. End comment.) Giscard predicted
    that the demonstrators would gradually exhaust themselves
    over a period of three to four weeks, also in conjunction
    with a gesture by the government to soften the law. While he
    did not rule out the possibility of a general strike (Note:
    The next day of strike actions is March 28, but the unions
    have stopped short of calling for a "general strike." End
    note.), Giscard was categorical that France is not/not in a
    pre-revolutionary mood. (Comment: This is an assessment that
    tracks widely with that of pundits, who see reaction to the
    CPE as focused on preserving privileges rather than effecting
    change. End comment.)

    2007 ELECTIONS AND PROSPECTS FOR THE CENTER-LEFT
    --------------------------------------------- ---

    ¶5. (C) Giscard refused to make any firm predictions about
    the outcome of the 2007 presidential elections, although he
    repeated the conventional wisdom that the French tradition of
    protest against the government in office would tend to favor
    the center-left Socialist Party (PS). Asked about Segolene
    Royal's current lead in the public opinion polls, Giscard
    said she was "brilliant" (of the same ENA class as PM
    Dominique de Villepin and her companion and PS First
    Secretary Francois Hollande), by no means a political

    SIPDIS
    extremist (he noted her father was a retired Colonel and her
    brother a member of the far-right National Front), honest,
    and presented well on television. Giscard thought Royal's
    strategy of not speaking out too much on the issues was the

    PARIS 00001966 002 OF 004

    correct one for the moment, as this allowed her to appear as
    a vessel for voters' hopes for change. At the same time,
    given her lack of high-level governing experience, Giscard
    thought Royal would do well to consider naming in advance her
    choice for PM in order to run as a ticket.

    ¶6. (C) Giscard cited Dominique Strauss-Kahn as the logical
    choice from the standpoint of experience and capability, but
    noted that Strauss-Kahn represented the mainstream at a
    moment when the left wing was becoming increasingly vocal.
    Giscard believed Royal's strategy of appealing to the center
    was correct overall in the context of winning the presidency,
    but perhaps premature at this stage of the nomination
    process. At a minimum, Giscard opined, Royal should drop her
    frequent references to Tony Blair, as this risked
    antagonizing the left wing. Asked about other possible PM
    candidates, Giscard disparaged former PM Lionel Jospin as
    stiff and repetitious (he continued to push his book and had
    no new ideas) and thought him unlikely to accept anything but
    the presidency. Giscard dismissed former PM Laurent Fabius
    as a shameless opportunist, in an age when voters demanded a
    certain honesty from politicians. Giscard offered former
    Culture Jack Lang as one possibility, especially vis-a-vis
    the left wing of the party, given his credentials with
    intellectuals. Less kindly, however, Giscard characterized
    Lang as a "brilliant" culture minister, provided one
    understood "culture" as "entertainment." He not only
    appeared to be, but indeed was, a lightweight, and certainly
    not a statesman, Giscard declared.

    FRANCE IN NEED OF A THATCHER?
    -----------------------------

    ¶7. (C) Asked whether France's perpetual sense of being in
    crisis might finally encourage voters to support more radical
    change, Giscard said he saw a need to make people happier
    through increased prosperity, and cited former Spanish PM
    Aznar as having convinced the Spanish electorate that
    prosperity would not be possible without reform. But he also
    held out the possibility of an even more radical,
    Thatcher-like "shock treatment," which he claimed only the
    center-right could administer given the center-left's
    enduring attachment to a large public sector. After
    reflection, however, he suggested that the government might
    best take a number of quick, pragmatic actions after the
    elections -- with no one step being seen as radical in and of
    itself and thus below the threshold of public consciousness
    and programmatic doctrine -- to reduce the wealth tax, drop
    taxes on main private residences (all Frenchmen want to own a
    house, he said), or refraining from replacing half of all
    retiring civil servants.

    ¶8. (C) Asked to what extent the center-right should stand
    for change, Giscard was cautious and, citing the French mood
    described above, commented that the elections would be won by
    persuading voters to say "no" to the left rather than "yes"
    to the right. He thought the center-right was well
    positioned to claim that the socialists were soft on security
    and had no real proposals for reducing unemployment. In sum,
    according to Giscard, it would be a mistake to run too
    overtly on a reformist ticket. In that regard, he noted that
    Sarkozy had stopped using the word "break" with the past,
    which was widely perceived as too radical.

    SARKOZY THE ONE?
    ----------------

    ¶9. (C) Giscard characterized Sarkozy as the center-right's
    leading candidate for the presidential elections -- although
    he had to assume that President Chirac was still holding out
    hope for a serious international crisis to lead to the
    "demand" that he continue to lead France. Giscard thought it
    helpful to Sarkozy's candidacy that he was associated with
    toughness on security and immigration issues, while
    characterizing Sarkozy's economic record as weak. Giscard
    also cautioned that Sarkozy's "hyperactivity" could be
    perceived as dangerous. Asked if Sarkozy would make a good
    president, Giscard noted that Sarkozy lacked the pedigree
    that the French people had come to expect, and characterized
    him as a sort of French "Clinton" in that regard. He
    acknowledged difficulty in perceiving Sarkozy as a figure of
    historical dimensions, notwithstanding his brilliance.
    Giscard hinted that Sarkozy might not survive more than a
    single term.

    ¶10. (C) Asked to compare Sarkozy to PM de Villepin, Giscard
    said he wanted to avoid directly criticizing the Prime
    Minister of a current government. He nonetheless judged
    Villepin to be more a poet than a politician, although he
    admired his energy and personal accomplishments. Giscard
    concluded with the observation that the three most important

    PARIS 00001966 003 OF 004

    political offices in France would be up for grabs in 2007:
    President, Prime Minister, and Mayor of Paris. (Comment:
    Given the near certainty that neither Sarkozy or Villepin, if
    elected, would choose the other as Prime Minister, this would
    leave the Mayor of Paris as the consolation prize. Giscard
    apparently saw no obstacle in the fact that the center-right
    UMP party, through a primary election, had just chosen
    Francoise de Panafieu to run against PS incumbent Bertrand
    Delanoe. End comment.)

    NEXT STEPS ON EUROPE
    --------------------

    ¶11. (C) Calling the failed referendum on the EU constitution
    a "catastrophe" for France and Europe, Giscard accused the
    government of badly managing the issue. He recalled his
    attempt a month before the referendum to convince President
    Chirac to withdraw the referendum and to replace PM Raffarin
    instead and, before that, his effort to convince Chirac not
    to hold a referendum at all. Giscard insisted that the
    majority of those who voted "no" had voted against the
    government and Chirac -- especially many on the center-left
    who had been forced to support Chirac in the second-round
    2002 election against Jean-Marie Le Pen). Moreover, Giscard
    asserted, "although the USG does not seem to want to
    recognize this," widespread unease with EU enlargement also
    played a significant role. Giscard claimed, citing poll
    data, that the French public favored either re-approving the
    existing text or renegotiating it slightly, although this
    probably could not occur until after the 2007 presidential
    elections. (Comment: Giscard has a personal stake in
    preserving as much of the existing text, which he largely
    wrote, as possible. End comment.)

    ¶12. (C) As for the future, Giscard judged that the real
    problem would be not France but the UK, which he described as
    "moving away from Europe." Giscard noted in this regard that
    the UK business and financial communities appeared to be more
    focused on Australia, China and the U.S. than Europe, perhaps
    because they perceive Europe as too complicated and less
    dynamic. Giscard also lamented the absence of authentic
    European leaders, with the potential exception of German
    Chancellor Merkel. He made clear his belief that such a
    leader need not necessarily be French, German, or British.

    ¶13. (C) Asked whether reports of increasing Franco-German
    differences portended a drifting apart of these two
    countries, Giscard declared that this was happily not the
    case. Waxing emotional for the only time in the meeting, he
    said the two peoples now saw each other as partners,
    notwithstanding the suffering of the past (he evoked his own
    family's losses in wars against Germany, citing his
    grand-father's death in the trenches of WWI and his
    father-in-law's experience in a deportee camp in WWII). He
    stated that when French delegations attend international
    meetings, they feel most comfortable with the Germans. This
    might appear strange, he concluded, but it was true.

    ¶14. (U) Giscard briefly mentioned his plans for traveling to
    the U.S. in the fall.

    COMMENT
    -------

    ¶15. (C) Notwithstanding his critical acumen (it is
    impossible not to admire how sharp he remains), Giscard's
    arguments themselves reflect France's contradictory desire
    for change and preserving the status quo, or for effecting
    change by increment and stealth rather than offering the
    public clear policy choices. By that measure, PM de
    Villepin's platform of "change in continuity," as represented
    tangibly by the CPE, should have enjoyed more success. It is
    hard to square Giscard's judgment that reform should be
    implemented incrementally stealthily (Villepin's strategy)
    with his call for a "shock treatment" for France (that only
    Sarkozy could provide). Similar considerations pertain to
    his judgment that winning elections is more about
    discrediting the opposition than by running on a platform for
    the future.

    ¶16. (C) Giscard mostly spoke in English, with a few
    digressions in French, in a manner that can only be described
    as sometimes elliptical but in which the choice of words
    always appeared deliberate and precise. As in past meetings,
    Giscard demonstrated his deep knowledge of European and U.S.
    history (he is currently reading a biography of Thomas
    Jefferson, whom he finds not very typically American) and
    geography. As he has done with previous Ambassadors, Giscard
    complained about the exaggerated stature Americans give to
    Lafayette -- whom Giscard dismissed as a "self-promoting
    member of the lower aristocracy" -- at the expense of the

    PARIS 00001966 004 OF 004

    contributions to American independence made possible by the
    policies of the French government and the actions of the
    French fleet, including a Vice-Admiral d'Estaing Giscard
    counts among forbears.

    Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
    http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm

    Stapleton

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