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### Viewing cable 06MANAGUA2343, CSE PRESIDENT CLAIMS ELECTIONS WILL BE

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06MANAGUA2343 | 2006-10-23 18:57 | 2011-06-01 08:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Managua

Appears in these articles:
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758456.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758467.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758468.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758464.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4103/la-embusa-y-el-gabinete-de-ortega
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4104/d-rsquo-escoto-en-onu-ldquo-un-desafio-de-ortega-a-ee-uu-rdquo
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4102/estrada-y-la-ldquo-doble-cara-rdquo-ante-ee-uu
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3966/la-ldquo-injerencia-rdquo-de-ee-uu-en-el-2006
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-23/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2758764.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-23/Mundo/NotaPrincipal/Mundo2758753.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4041/millones-de-dolares-sin-control-y-a-discrecion
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4040/la-ldquo-injerencia-rdquo-de-venezuela-en-2006
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4047/rodrigo-barreto-enviado-de-ldquo-vacaciones-rdquo
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2757239.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/NotaPrincipal/Mundo2746658.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2757244.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2746673.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3991/dra-yadira-centeno-desmiente-cable-diplomatico-eeuu
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3968/pellas-pronostico-a-eeuu-victoria-de-ortega-en-2006
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3967/barreto-era-ldquo-fuente-confiable-rdquo-para-eeuu

`

    VZCZCXYZ0040
    PP RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHMU #2343/01 2961857
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 231857Z OCT 06
    FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7971
    INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 002343

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    DEPT FOR WHA/CEN, USAID FOR LAC MARK SILVERMAN

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2016
    TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NU
    SUBJECT: CSE PRESIDENT CLAIMS ELECTIONS WILL BE
    TRANSPARENT, COMPLAINS ABOUT QUICK COUNT

    Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d)

    ¶1. (C) Summary: Ambassador and the magistrates of Nicaragua's
    Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) exchanged concerns regarding
    the November 5 national elections during a recent meeting at
    CSE headquarters.  Ambassador urged the magistrates to assure
    that eligible voters can obtain the necessary voting
    documents before election day, allow international and
    national observers access to all key locations, and oppose
    any self-declaration of candidates before the official
    release of vote results.  Ambassador also expressed concern
    regarding the apparently inequitable distribution of voting
    station official slots to the different political parties.
    The magistrates complained about Etica y Transparencia's plan
    to conduct a quick count, claiming that Etica is not
    impartial towards the CSE and any alternative tabulation of
    the vote could result in civil disturbances.  End Summary.

    ¶2. (C) Ambassador and emboffs met with CSE magistrates on
    October 19 to discuss issues related to the November 5
    national elections.  The magistrates came to the meeting
    sporting casual clothing and CSE observation vests -- no
    doubt to show their dedication to performing the grubby field
    work necessary to ensure fair elections.  In addition to CSE
    president Roberto Rivas, FSLN-affiliated magistrate Emmet
    Lang (seated at Rivas' right hand), and PLC magistrates Luis
    Benavides and Rene Herrera were present, among others.
    (Comment: At one point during the conversation, CSE chief of
    staff Rodrigo Barreto delivered a folded message to Rivas.
    Lang took the message from the table in front of Rivas,
    opened and read it in full view of the group.  Lang's actions
    clearly demonstrated who really controls the CSE.  End
    Comment.)  In general, the meeting was cordial, and Barreto
    delivered our observation credentials after the discussion
    concluded.

    Distribution of Voting Documents
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶3. (C) Ambassador commented that the elections can be judged
    free and fair only if voters are able to obtain the
    appropriate documents and exercise their suffrage.  He asked
    Rivas if the CSE plans to use a bus and motorcycles provided
    by IFES to deliver voter/national ID cards (cedulas) and
    supplementary documents to voters in remote areas.  Rivas
    equivocated, answering only that the CSE plans to open up
    municipal distribution centers on October 26-29 to facilitate
    the distribution of cedulas and supplementary documents.  He
    commented that the magistrates had discussed shipping
    unretrieved cedulas and supplementary documents to the
    appropriate voting stations on election day, but that plan
    was judged impractical due to security considerations.  Rivas
    stated that voters would not be able to use a colilla
    (receipt given by the CSE when a voter applied for a cedula)
    because colillas do not have adequate anti-fraud features.

    ¶4. (C) Ambassador asked how the CSE plans to publicize its
    special weekend to facilitate cedula/supplementary document
    retrieval for voters.  Rivas responded by asking for
    additional resources for a publicity campaign.  Ambassador
    answered that IFES prepared a publicity campaign over two
    months ago, but the CSE has failed to approve it.  Rivas
    became flustered, snapping at Rodrigo Barreto, and offered a
    lame excuse that the IFES campaign stressing cedulas is not
    really appropriate for that project.

    Observer Access
    - - - - - - - -

    ¶5. (C) Ambassador urged the magistrates to allow
    international and national observers access to all key
    locations, including the vote tabulation center.  Rivas
    responded that the CSE has accredited over 16,000 national
    observers and 600 international observers.  He claimed that
    "these elections are completely open, the CSE has nothing to
    hide."  The vote tabulation computer center is a small place,
    Rivas explained, although the CSE will permit access to a
    limited number of international and national observers as
    well as official party poll watchers (fiscales).  (Comment:
    Apparently Rivas has finally acquiesced to pressure from the
    OAS, European Union, USG and others to permit limited access
    to national observers to the vote tabulation center.  End
    Comment.)

    Self-Declarations of Victory on Election Day/Reporting Results
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
    -

    ¶6. (C) In response to rumors that FSLN candidate Daniel
    Ortega may use early vote results (expected to favor his
    party) to proclaim himself the victor, Ambassador asked the
    magistrates not to give credence to any such declarations.
    Rivas stated that the CSE does not have any authority to
    affirm a candidate's victory until the official results are
    determined.  (Note: Benavides told the media late last week
    that "Nicaragua will have a new president in the morning" on
    November 6.  End Note.)

    ¶7. (C) Rivas commented that the CSE will post incoming vote
    tallies on its web site, and that 85 percent should be
    reported by 10:00 a.m. on November 6.  Regarding the process
    of official challenges ("impugnaciones") by party poll
    watchers, Rivas stated that he expects only about 140-150
    voting stations (JRVs) out of over 11,000 will face
    impugnaciones.  According to Rivas, most of the impugnaciones
    will be "stupid complaints," (e.g., a red car was parked
    outside the JRV) and only about 15-20 will be serious cases
    requiring resolution at the national level.

    JRV Member Allocations
    - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶8. (C) Ambassador noted that the distribution of official
    positions at the JRVs does not appear equitable and asked if
    the parties have any way to appeal the decisions.  (Note:
    Each JRV is comprised of three members: a president, first
    member, and second members.  Typically, the president and
    first member positions are allocated to designees from the
    two traditional parties (PLC and FSLN), while the second
    member positions are split between the "minority parties."
    The Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS) has protested the
    allocation of second member seats, claiming that 40 percent
    were given to the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN), 40
    percent to the Alternative for Change (AC), and only 20
    percent to the MRS.  End Note.)

    ¶9. (C) Rivas responded that the Departmental Electoral
    Councils (CEDs) appoint the members of the Municipal
    Electoral Councils (CEMs), which in turn appoint the JRV
    officials.  According to Rivas, the parties cannot appeal
    this "complicated procedure," although he claimed that the
    MRS simply did not nominate officials in areas where the
    party does not have a strong presence.

    ¶10. (C) Ambassador asked Rivas if the CSE will also train the
    alternate JRV officials, and he answered that he hopes the
    proprietary members will share their training with their
    alternates.  Rivas claimed that JRV officials in Colombia do
    not receive any training at all, only instruction manuals.

    Magistrates Rail Against EyT Quick Count
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶11. (C) Rivas, Lang, and Herrera all strongly criticized
    plans by Etica y Transparencia (EyT) to conduct a quick count
    for the presidential election on November 5.  Rivas commented
    that the quick count plan "bothers" him and worried that the
    results could be inaccurate.  Herrera warned that if the
    "real" election results do "not match people's expectations"
    but the quick count does, the conflicting information could
    "create a dangerous situation."  Lang bluntly stated that the
    CSE does not trust EyT due to a history of conflict between
    the two institutions and "biased" reports released by EyT in
    the past.  Lang claimed that EyT published a quick count
    after the 2001 elections that was eight points off the actual
    results.  The magistrates did not respond to repeated offers
    to have EyT electoral experts explain the quick count
    methodology.

    ¶12. (C) Comment: Lang is mistaken.  The EyT 2001 quick count
    results were only .02 percent different from the final vote
    tally, and the CSE actually requested that EyT release the
    quick count results before the release of the official vote
    tally to validate their own findings.  The FSLN and PLC will
    have an unfair advantage in that they will know, through
    their hacks in the CSE, the results of the quick count before
    the other parties since EyT is legally bound to share the
    results with the CSE before any release.  Local IFES director
    Rafael Lopez Pintor, who has been providing technical
    assistance to the CSE for almost a year, earlier told emboffs
    that the magistrates are behaving in an obstructionist manner
    because they are afraid that the pact parties (PLC and FSLN)
    will lose the elections and they will be replaced -- losing
    their obscenely bloated salary packages and benefits.

    Without the constant vigilance of the donor/observer
    community and Nicaraguan civil society groups, the utterly
    politicized CSE would surely have made far less than the
    already minimal efforts to ensure free, fair, and transparent
    elections.
    TRIVELLI

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