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### Viewing cable 06MANAGUA2074, OAS EOM CHIEF SEES NO NEED FOR OCTOBER INTERIM

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06MANAGUA2074 | 2006-09-20 23:26 | 2011-06-01 08:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Managua

Appears in these articles:
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758456.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758467.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758468.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758464.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4103/la-embusa-y-el-gabinete-de-ortega
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4104/d-rsquo-escoto-en-onu-ldquo-un-desafio-de-ortega-a-ee-uu-rdquo
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4102/estrada-y-la-ldquo-doble-cara-rdquo-ante-ee-uu
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3966/la-ldquo-injerencia-rdquo-de-ee-uu-en-el-2006
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-23/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2758764.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-23/Mundo/NotaPrincipal/Mundo2758753.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4041/millones-de-dolares-sin-control-y-a-discrecion
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4040/la-ldquo-injerencia-rdquo-de-venezuela-en-2006
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4047/rodrigo-barreto-enviado-de-ldquo-vacaciones-rdquo
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2757239.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/NotaPrincipal/Mundo2746658.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2757244.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2746673.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3991/dra-yadira-centeno-desmiente-cable-diplomatico-eeuu
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3968/pellas-pronostico-a-eeuu-victoria-de-ortega-en-2006
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3967/barreto-era-ldquo-fuente-confiable-rdquo-para-eeuu

`

    VZCZCXYZ0000
    PP RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHMU #2074/01 2632326
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 202326Z SEP 06
    FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7632
    INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 002074

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN, WHA/USOAS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2016
    TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KDEM NU
    SUBJECT: OAS EOM CHIEF SEES NO NEED FOR OCTOBER INTERIM
    REPORT, BUT WILL ISSUE ONE AT GON,S REQUEST

    REF: A. MANAGUA 1593

         ¶B. MANAGUA 1555
         ¶C. MANAGUA 0565

    Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D).

    ¶1.  (C) SUMMARY: Ambassador and WHA/CEN director recently
    met with the OAS election mission to assess developments in
    the preparations for Nicaragua's November 5 elections.
    While Mission head Gustavo Fernandez sees no need for a
    second OAS interim report on Nicaragua's electoral process,
    Ambassador urged Fernandez to reconsider, noting that
    issuing a second report would allow OAS member countries to
    make observations.  Fernandez clarified that OAS will issue
    a report if President Bolanos so requests.  According to
    President Bolanos senior political adviser, President
    Bolanos intends to request a second report.  END SUMMARY.

    ¶2.  (C) Ambassador, WHA director John Feeley, DCM, and
    polcouns met on September 12 with the OAS EOM leader
    Gustavo Fernandez and OAS-contracted technical director
    Patricio Gajardo to discuss preparations for Nicaragua's
    November 5 elections.  Fernandez saw no need for a second
    OAS interim report on Nicaragua's electoral process, noting
    his plans to issue public statements instead.  According to
    Fernandez, the Nicaraguan government (GON) has agreed with
    this approach.  Ambassador urged Fernandez to reconsider,
    noting that issuing a second report would allow OAS member
    countries to make observations.  Fernandez clarified that
    he will respect the wishes of the GON; if Bolanos requests
    a second report, the OAS will comply.

    FACILITATING CLOSURE ON IRI CASE
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶3.  (C) Fernandez was supportive of Ambassador's assertion
    that the Supreme Electoral Council's (CSE) attacks against
    the International Republican Institute (IRI) are unmerited
    and politically driven -- in part to raise a smoke screen
    to divert attention from the CSE's flawed regulations
    concerning vote result challenges (impugnaciones).
    Fernandez offered to weigh in with CSE President Roberto
    Rivas on the IRI case.

    THE DEVIL'S IN THE REGS
    - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶4.  (SBU) Continuing on the subject of impugnaciones,
    Fernandez shared that the CSE has welcomed additional OAS
    input.  Fernandez asserted that the regulations are flawed
    and confusing, specifically regarding the nullification of
    vote tabulations at voting tables (JRVs), vote result
    challenges (impugnaciones), and appeals.  However, contrary
    to the view of Etica y Transparencia (ET) leader Roberto
    Courtney and others, Fernandez did not see a problem with
    the regulation requiring signatures of the JRV officials
    and party poll watchers (fiscales) to verify the result
    of the vote tally because if an official or fiscal refuses
    to sign, he/she must justify the refusal.  Further, not
    requiring the signatures of all officials/fiscales would
    present a greater risk because certain political parties
    could
    connive and agree on inaccurate vote tallies without the
    approval of other parties.

    CSE TO ISSUE 200,000 TEMPORARY VOTING DOCUMENTS
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶5.  (SBU) Fernandez shared that the CSE will issue some
    200,000 temporary voting documents (documentos supletorios)
    and must also deliver up to (many have not been retrieved
    for years) 170,000 national ID/voter cards, or cedulas
    (many of these cedulas have been in the CSE's possession
    for years).  The OAS will accompany the CSE in the document
    delivery process.  Regarding the CSE's inflated voter roll
    (padron), Fernandez confirmed that the CSE has closed the
    list, estimating that while the roll contains as many as
    3.5 million supposedly eligible voters, probably only 2.4
    million of the names are current because included in the
    roll are thousands of Nicaraguans residing abroad and
    hundreds of deceased.

    OAS BEEFS UP OBSERVATION TEAM, FOLDS IN "NOTABLES"
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶6.  (C) Fernandez reported that the OAS will increase its
    number of observers from 130 to 200 to ensure better

    coverage of the electoral process.  He noted that despite
    its efforts, the OAS was unable to arrange for the arrival
    of the Madrid Club "group of notables" well in advance of
    the OAS observation team.  Rather, the notables will be
    incorporated into the OAS team.  (COMMENT: According to
    senior Bolanos advisers, the OAS caved to Sandinista Front
    (FSLN) pressure to refrain from bringing in the Madrid Club
    notables in September to participate in conferences with
    political parties/civil society and meet with the press.
    In light of Daniel Ortega's criticism of what he terms the
    OAS' political meddling in the electoral process, the
    notables program as a stand alone event was shelved.
    Ironically, it was Ortega who originally insisted that the
    OAS contain both a technical and political team, the latter
    to make sure "the gringos" did not step out of bounds.)

    CAPUTO TO FOCUS ON GOVERNABILITY
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶7.  (C) Fernandez confirmed that Dante Caputo will arrive
    September 22 and will focus on helping the GON and
    political parties resolve the issue of constitutional
    changes scheduled to go into effect 20 January 2007.  He
    added that the OAS has offered to help print a flow
    chart/posters of the voting process for use at the JRVs
    tables and to inform officials, party poll watchers,
    observers, and the public.  OAS will check with IFES to
    ensure they are not duplicating IFES' efforts (IFES is
    issuing the "step-by step" (paso por paso) manual.)

    ORTEGA COULD WIN IF THE LIBERALS REMAIN DIVIDED
    - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶8.  (C) To Fernandez, Ortega could win the November 5
    election if the Liberals remain disunited.  He remarked
    that Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS) candidate Edmundo
    Jarquin's campaign is beating all expectations; while many
    people predicted that the MRS would lose steam following
    Herty Lewites' death, Jarquin has maintained, even
    increased, support for the MRS.  Fernandez related that in
    his recent meeting with Jarquin, "Mundo" Jarquin told him
    that about 11 of his 18/20 points in the polls could
    potentially migrate to Montealegre on Election Day if these
    largely independent voters determine that Montealegre is
    the candidate who can beat Ortega.  Fernandez, who appears
    well disposed towards Jarquin, noted that the MRS has the
    potential to eventually replace the FSLN.

    HOW MUCH FRAUD IS POSSIBLE, LIKELY?
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶9.  (C) Fernandez differed with the common assumption that
    Ortega can or will steal up to 5% of the vote.  However, he
    concurred with Ambassador that the FSLN and PLC could use
    their control of the CSE to influence the elections of
    Assembly candidates via "minor" irregularities.  Fernandez
    assured Ambassador that the OAS is taking precautions,
    including raising its number of observers to offset any
    efforts to commit fraud.  The OAS will also work closely
    with other leading observation groups before releasing
    conclusive statements.

    GON WILLING TO RECONSIDER POSITION ON OAS INTERIM REPORT
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶10.  (C) Later the same day, President Bolanos' chief of
    staff Leonardo Somarriba confirmed to WHA/CEN director John
    Feeley that the GON does not require a second interim
    report.  Feeley suggested that the option of a second
    report could help pressure the CSE to stay on track.  He
    added
    that a report would allow OAS member countries to keep
    Nicaragua's
    electoral process on the Hemisphere's radar scope and
    re-enforce
    the importance of international observers, especially in
    light of
    Ortega's continuing attacks on the OAS EOM.  A second report
    would
    also allow OAS members to signal concern with any
    pre-electoral
    irregularities, should they occur.  Somarriba explained that
    he
    had agreed with Fernandez' recommendation on the condition
    that
    Fernandez will speak out regarding any anomalies that arise
    from

    now until the November election.  In light of Feeley's
    observations,
    however, Somarriba said the GON is willing to reconsider its
    position.  (NOTE: On September 20, President Bolanos' senior
    political adviser informed polcouns that in light of concerns
    arising from the CSE's impugnaciones regulations, President
    Bolanos now plans on requesting a second interim OAS report.)
    TRIVELLI

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