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### Viewing cable 08MANAGUA418, LIBERAL DEPUTIES OPTIMISTIC ON ELECTION,

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08MANAGUA418 | 2008-04-08 22:00 | 2011-06-01 08:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Managua

Appears in these articles:
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758456.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758467.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758468.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758464.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4103/la-embusa-y-el-gabinete-de-ortega
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4104/d-rsquo-escoto-en-onu-ldquo-un-desafio-de-ortega-a-ee-uu-rdquo
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4102/estrada-y-la-ldquo-doble-cara-rdquo-ante-ee-uu
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3966/la-ldquo-injerencia-rdquo-de-ee-uu-en-el-2006
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-23/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2758764.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-23/Mundo/NotaPrincipal/Mundo2758753.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4041/millones-de-dolares-sin-control-y-a-discrecion
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4040/la-ldquo-injerencia-rdquo-de-venezuela-en-2006
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4047/rodrigo-barreto-enviado-de-ldquo-vacaciones-rdquo
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2757239.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/NotaPrincipal/Mundo2746658.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2757244.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2746673.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3991/dra-yadira-centeno-desmiente-cable-diplomatico-eeuu
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3968/pellas-pronostico-a-eeuu-victoria-de-ortega-en-2006
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3967/barreto-era-ldquo-fuente-confiable-rdquo-para-eeuu

`

    VZCZCXRO6878
    PP RUEHLMC
    DE RUEHMU #0418/01 0992200
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 082200Z APR 08
    FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2398
    INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUMIAAA/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHDC PRIORITY
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAGUA 000418

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    STATE FOR WHA/CEN AND DRL
    STATE PASS USAID FOR BONICELLI/CARDENAS
    NSC FOR FISK/ALVARADO

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2018
    TAGS: PGOV PHUM NU
    SUBJECT: LIBERAL DEPUTIES OPTIMISTIC ON ELECTION,
    PESSIMISTIC ON ORTEGA GOVERNMENT

    Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli, Reasons 1.4 (b and d)

    SUMMARY
    -------
    ¶1. (C) National Assembly Deputies from the Constitutional
    Liberal Party (PLC) are concerned about the direction of the
    Ortega government.  In particular, they are worried that the
    Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) decision to suspend elections
    in the North Atlantic Autonomous Region (RAAN) would provoke
    another political and constitutional crisis, represent an
    over reach of the authority of the CSE, and set a dangerous
    precedent that the government might use to cancel other
    elections where they feel politically threatened.  Deputies
    characterized the government as a "failure," and believe
    Ortega and First Lady Rosario Murillo are using the Citizen
    Power Councils (CPCs) to establish a parallel FSLN structure
    to consolidate their hold over the country.  At the same
    time, the Deputies are optimistic about their chances to gain
    additional seats in the upcoming municipal elections and
    spoke positively of Managua mayoral candidate Eduardo
    Montealegre and their alliance with Montealegre's movement,
    Vamos Con Eduardo.  Left unsaid was the potential role
    ex-President and PLC leader Arnoldo Aleman could play in
    stifling Montealegre's chances in Managua or in collaborating
    with the FSLN to further erode democratic space in Nicaragua.
     End Summary.

    ¶2. (U) On March 28, as part of an outreach effort to party
    leaders of the four main parties in the National Assembly,
    Ambassador hosted a lunch with four senior Deputies from the
    Constitutional Liberal Party (PLC).  Participants included:
    Francisco Aguirre Sacasa (PLC party secretary, former Foreign
    Minister and Ambassador to the U.S. and current chair of the
    Production, Economic and Budget Committee); Jose Pallais
    (former Vice-Minister of Government and Foreign Affairs and
    current chair of the Justice Committee); Maximino Rodriguez
    (former Contra leader, chief of the PLC party (bancada) in
    the National Assembly and member of the Justice Committee and
    the Peace, Defense and Human Rights Committee); and Carlos
    Noguera Pastora (President of the Tourism Committee).

    Postponement of Elections in the RAAN
    -------------------------------------

    ¶3. (C) The Deputies expressed serious concern over reports
    that the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) is likely to
    announce the suspension of municipal elections in three
    municipalities in the North Atlantic Autonomous Region
    (RAAN).  Rodriguez argued that the CSE does not have the
    authority to suspend the elections (Note: The CSE issued a
    decision to suspend the election late in the evening of April
    ¶4.  End Note).  "They can't assume authority that the law
    doesn't give them."  Noguera commented that the actions of
    the CSE were likely to blow elections in the RAAN out of
    proportion to both their population and economic importance
    and create another national crisis.  At a minimum, in
    Pallais' view, it would create another crisis in the National
    Assembly, and he noted that the PLC and deputies of Vamos Con
    Eduardo (VCE) blocked further legislative work on March 27 in
    protest of FSLN and President Ortega's support for suspension
    of the elections.  Rodriguez echoed the concerns of the
    others that the suspension in the RAAN on specious, and
    constantly changing, grounds would set a bad precedent for
    elections in the rest of the country.  "If they can do it
    there, they can do it in any municipality at any time.  What
    would stop them from canceling elections in Managua?"

    ¶4. (C) Pallais believes that the postponement is designed to
    secure FSLN Deputy Brooklyn Rivera's continued hold over the
    region and prevent devastating losses in the elections.
    President Ortega and his wife, Rosario Murillo, support
    Rivera because he is another proponent of "direct democracy,"
    similar to what Ortega-Murillo have engineered through the
    Citizen Power Councils (CPCs) in the rest of the country.
    Rivera, in the past, has denounced traditional elections as
    "an invention of the Spanish" and relies on local indigenous
    councils as his base of support and power.  If he fails,
    Pallais commented, it would be a blow to Ortega's national
    effort at "direct democracy."

    Optimistic About Municipal Elections and Liberal Alliance
    --------------------------------------------- ------------

    MANAGUA 00000418  002 OF 003

    ¶5. (C) The Deputies were optimistic about their chances to
    hold their current number of municipalities and make gains in
    the upcoming elections.  Noguera expressed the view that the
    PLC-VCE alliance would win "no less than 80 municipalities"
    -- and could win a few more than that (out of 153).  All
    agreed the priority is to win Managua, dismissing media
    reports that the PLC is working to undermine VCE candidate
    Eduardo Montealegre.  Noguera noted that the elections will
    be a challenge, especially in Managua and will "cost a lot."
    Aguirre Sacasa, reflecting on previous elections cycles,
    commented that if the PLC-VCE alliance can win Managua, they
    win the country.  In 2004, the Liberals lost badly, but
    Aguirre Sacasa believes the 2008 elections will be different
    -- Ortega and the FSLN are now in power and have managed the
    country poorly.  The elections are turning into a referendum
    on Ortega and the VCE-PLC alliance helps "polarize" the
    choice facing the electorate.

    ¶6. (C) Rodriguez noted that the actual electoral process will
    be a challenge.  They will need to work hard to get the vote
    out.  More importantly, the alliance will need between 10,000
    and 15,000 party poll watchers, in part to make up for the
    fact that the FSLN will, in effect, control all the municipal
    and departmental electoral commissions.  The problem, in
    Rodriguez's view, is that the VCE-PLC alliance does not yet
    have those people identified and lacks the financial
    resources to organize and train them.  Getting the vote out
    on election day will similarly be critical and will present a
    logistical and financial challenge.

    ¶7. (C) Aguirre Sacasa expressed concern that the private
    sector would not contribute to the alliance, making the task
    all the more difficult.  In particular, he is concerned that
    the Conservative Party (PC) had put forward its own
    candidate, prominent businessman Mauricio Mendieta, and has
    not joined the alliance.  He believes the PC's decision not
    to join was Montealegre's fault, but acknowledged that the
    PLC (by implication Aleman) had been meeting with PC
    separately to form their own alliance.  The private sector
    could use Mendieta's candidacy as an excuse not to provide
    financial support, claiming the democratic forces remained
    divided and drawing off the "country club" financial backers.
     Moreover, the PC's running its own candidate and
    Montealegre's former party, the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance
    (ALN) also running their own candidate, could serve to draw
    key percentages of votes away from the alliance, especially
    in Managua, due to simple voter confusion.  Aguirre Sacasa
    believes the Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS) will not
    hurt the alliance's chances, but would rather continue to
    draw votes away from the FSLN, particularly in light of
    dissatisfaction among Sandinista's with Ortega's
    administration.

    ORTEGA GOVERNMENT "A FAILURE"
    ----------------------------

    ¶8. (C) Not surprisingly, the Deputies characterized the
    Ortega administration as "a failure."  Aguirre Sacasa
    commented that Ortega has failed in every key program - the
    CPCs, Zero Hunger, Zero Usury, etc.  While the people see
    this, even those from the FSLN base, this hasn't stopped
    Ortega.  In Noguera's view, Ortega-Murillo are working to
    stay in power as long as possible and are concentrating more
    power in their hands.  The CPCs are key to this effort and
    Pallais revealed that the FSLN is looking to change the law
    on civic participation to further concentrate power into the
    hands of the CPCs and Ortega.  According to Pallais, the CPCs
    are a parallel structure of the FSLN for the express purpose
    of ensuring Ortega family control over all aspects of party
    and government.  While the CPCs failed as a bottom-up
    movement from the base, they are now a well-paid professional
    parallel structure.  "What we have is a Marxist-Leninist
    family-based authoritarian government."  Both Aguirre Sacasa
    and Pallais believe that the funds for the CPCs are coming
    directly from Venezuela and would remain outside of the
    national budget so as to prevent the National Assembly from
    exercising oversight.

    COMMENT
    -------

    MANAGUA 00000418  003 OF 003

    ¶9. (C) The PLC Deputies were upbeat on the elections and,
    surprisingly, refrained from their usual criticism of
    Montealegre and others of the VCE.  While their remarks were
    likely tailored for the USG audience, they did express a
    greater sense that the Liberals (PLC and VCE) and the broader
    pro-democratic movement faced a common threat in the
    anti-democratic tendencies of the Ortega government and that
    the municipal elections are critical to facing that threat.
    The unspoken elephant in the room remains ex-president and
    convicted felon Arnoldo Aleman and the role he continues to
    play in the PLC and nationally through the "Pacto" with the
    FSLN.  Only a passing reference to Aleman was made by
    Rodriguez, more in reference to "errors" in U.S. policy in
    previous elections.  All four deputies have made public and
    private criticisms of Aleman and would like to position
    themselves to be the leader of the Liberals when he passes
    from the political scene.  However, none have demonstrated a
    willingness to directly challenge Aleman's continue
    leadership of the party or make a move that would hasten his
    departure. Aleman's continued control over the party,
    especially through the CSE and CSJ, continue to raise
    concerns about how long the VCE-PLC alliance, and
    Montealegre's candidacy in particular, will last and whether
    any of the concerns the PLC Deputies raised will be addressed
    in the coming months.

    TRIVELLI

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