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### Viewing cable 06BEIRUT2529, TFLE01: NASSIB LAHOUD OFFERS ADVICE FOR THE DAY

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06BEIRUT2529 | 2006-08-03 17:09 | 2011-03-15 18:00 | CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN | Embassy Beirut
Appears in these articles: not yet set

`

    VZCZCXRO9792
    OO RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK
    DE RUEHLB #2529/01 2151709
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 031709Z AUG 06
    FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4887
    INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 0012
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
    RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 002529

    SIPDIS

    NOFORN
    SIPDIS

    NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/SINGH/HARDING

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/02/2016
    TAGS: IS LE MOPS PGOV PREL PTER SY
    SUBJECT: TFLE01: NASSIB LAHOUD OFFERS ADVICE FOR THE DAY
    AFTER

    Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman. Reason: Section 1.4 (b).

    SUMMARY
    -------

    ¶1. (C/NF) Displaying notable resilience and cautious
    optimism despite the difficult conditions his country faces,
    pro-reform leader Nassib Lahoud advised the Embassy that the
    most critical element in preventing a Hizballah "victory"
    after the war is to take the lead in the reconstruction of
    post-conflict Lebanon. Acknowledging the numerous risks
    involved, Lahoud maintained that a comprehensive
    reconstruction effort achieves three imperatives: deprives
    Hizballah of the governmental vacuum it needs to reassert its
    control over the south; allows/encourages the return of the
    Shia population to the south, and finally, ensures that the
    Lebanese economy expands rapidly to prevent a national
    collapse of confidence. Taking an unexpected tack for a
    March 14 leader, Lahoud advised USG not to try to blame
    Hizballah for the destructive conflict -- let the Lebanese
    people come to that conclusion by themselves. Instead, he
    strongly advised USG to engineer the rebirth of the south and
    compel the many nations now pledging funds to live up to
    their commitments. But Lahoud also somberly noted that the
    Hizballah stronghold of South Beirut will be the most
    difficult challenge in any reconstruction effort -- far more
    than south Lebanon. End summary.

    ¶2. (C/NF) Former Lebanese ambassador to the US. and veteran
    anti-Syrian politician Nassib Lahoud met the Ambassador and
    poloff on August 2. Despite the damage inflicted on his
    country, he expressed his hope that IDF's continuing
    operations would materially degrade Hizballah's military
    strength -- the key to its power in Lebanon. But he warned
    that Hizballah's leadership would try to claim victory no
    matter how damaged it is when it emerges from the conflict.

    ¶3. (C/NF) Without stating his sources, Lahoud said the
    extent of damage inflicted on Hizballah was somewhere between
    the claims of IDF and the organization itself. He is certain
    their civil infrastructure in south Beirut and south Lebanon
    is basically wiped out, but their leadership and the great
    majority of their fighters have survived. Even so, the
    elimination of this infrastructure was a significant
    achievement, and an important opportunity that could be taken
    advantage of in the post-conflict reconstruction phase.

    "CHANGE YOUR TIME HORIZON"
    --------------------------

    ¶4. (C/NF) Commenting on the growing anti-American sentiment
    in Lebanon, Lahoud said emotions were understandably high and
    the sentiment was to be expected. Instead of trying to fight
    the almost inexorable short-term phenomenon, he advised us to
    focus on the post-conflict phase, because that is where the
    natural strengths of the US would be most effective -- and
    most damaging to Hizballah. If the US took the lead, and
    partnered with the Government of Lebanon, on a comprehensive,
    well executed reconstruction, he believed Hizballah's thunder
    could be stolen.

    ¶5. (C/NF) Right now, he noted, the international community
    is ready to pledge s粑gnificant amounts of aid and
    reconstruction assistance, but without US leadership, these
    good intentions were likely to evaporate -- and with it the
    chance to develop a stable, democratic Lebanon. He urged us
    to seize the day (after) and formulate, with the Government
    of Lebanon and our international partners, a reconstruction
    plan that would stabilize the south and reverse the
    destabilizing flood of Shia IDPs that have fled north.

    ¶6. (C/NF) Lahoud argued that the Shia of the south want to
    return to their ancestral homeland, but will not return to a
    wasteland. In his view, if there are real jobs (from a
    Government-coordinated reconstruction effort) with
    respectable pay, the Shia IDPs currently living in crowded,
    sterile shelters in Beirut, Sidon, and elsewhere will flow
    back at a rate that will calm confessional tensions and, just
    possibly, restore some credibility to the Government in the
    south -- where it has been invisible for decades.

    AN ALTERED POLITICAL CALCULUS
    -----------------------------

    BEIRUT 00002529 002 OF 002

    ¶7. (C/NF) Lahoud, an astute and knowledgeable observer of
    Lebanese politics, expressed quiet incredulity at Michel
    Aoun's continuing trumpeting of his now badly-tattered joint
    FPM/Hizballah communique of February 6. Like many other in
    the Maronite community, Lahoud said Aoun's power is
    definitely slipping and his day in the sun nearly over. His
    one remaining trump card in the Christian community was that
    he has so few able competitors.

    ¶8. (C/NF) Lahoud, long opposed to Syrian interference in
    Lebanon, urged the US and the international community to
    support and indeed strengthen the efforts of Serge Brammertz
    and the UNIIIC to pursue both the assassins of former Prime
    Minister Rafiq Hariri, and the persons responsible for the
    campaign of political violence unleashed against pro-reform
    leaders of Lebanon over the past two years. Lahoud believes
    that President Bashar al-Asad thinks he has dodged the UNIIIC
    bullet and it would completely confound him if Mr. Brammertz'
    investigative team re-applied themselves with renewed vigor.
    FELTMAN

`