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### Viewing cable 08WELLINGTON26, BACK-TO-BACK LEADERS' SPEECHES KICK OFF NZ ELECTION YEAR

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08WELLINGTON26 | 2008-02-04 03:28 | 2011-04-28 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Wellington

`

    VZCZCXRO8337
    RR RUEHNZ
    DE RUEHWL #0026/01 0350328
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 040328Z FEB 08
    FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5033
    INFO RUEHNZ/AMCONSUL AUCKLAND 1610
    RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 5090
    RUEHDN/AMCONSUL SYDNEY 0634
    RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000026

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS
    SENSITIVE

    STATE FOR STATE FOR EAP/ANP
    PACOM FOR J01E/J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM NZ
    SUBJECT: BACK-TO-BACK LEADERS' SPEECHES KICK OFF NZ ELECTION YEAR

    ¶1. (SBU)  Summary.  New Zealand's political season is now underway
    in earnest following the first major speeches of the year by Prime
    Minister Helen Clark and opposition leader John Key of the National
    Party.  Breaking with established tradition, the PM changed the date
    of her speech and the location to follow Key's speech in Auckland in
    hopes of delivering a rhetorical knock-out punch.  Instead, Key's
    speech received more favorable reviews by political pundits and the
    media.  Though both leaders addressed similar themes of education
    and youth, the press gave Key higher marks on substance and
    connecting with public opinion.  Polls over the next few weeks will
    determine if voters agree.  End Summary.

    Key Focuses on Youth Crime
    --------------------------

    ¶2. (SBU)  In his first major address of the year, National leader
    John Key concentrated on criticizing Labour's stewardship of the
    economy and highlighting New Zealand's income disparity.  He stated
    that a National government would focus more on the quality rather
    than quantity of government spending to address the country's
    economy and social problems.  Key promised National would be more
    careful of how the government spends the cash in the public purse
    than Labour and would reinvigorate the private sector, which Key
    argues Labour has neglected.  On education, Key proposed to retain
    the high school drop out age at 16, but would offer
    vocational/technical training courses or further study to 16 to
    17-year olds if they chose to leave school.  He added a stick to go
    with the carrot:  no welfare payments to youth under 18 if they opt
    out of his program.

    ¶3. (SBU)  Key's decision to address youth crime received the
    greatest share of media attention.  New Zealand is experiencing a
    spike in violent youth crime, and the issue is leading current
    public opinion polls as the most important topic of concern.  In his
    speech, Key outlined initiatives that would provide tougher judicial
    treatment of juvenile criminals, institute new custodial programs
    and strengthen those agencies and programs dedicated to preventing
    youth crime and the rehabilitating youth offenders, including
    military style boot camps.  Key's approach to tackling youth crime
    is a mix of strengthening the criminal justice system and addressing
    the root causes of youth offending.  While Key advocated lowering
    the age of criminal culpability and ordering children as young as 12
    and 13 into drug or alcohol rehabilitation programs, he also
    committed to providing more funding to mentoring and parenting
    initiatives, including Maori cultural-based schemes. (Note:  New
    Zealand's indigenous Maori population is disproportionably
    represented in its prison system and many youth crimes are
    perpetrated by young Maori.  End Note).

    Clark's Speech Mirrors Key's, Except on Youth Crime
    --------------------------------------------- ------

    ¶4. (SBU)  The issues addressed in Clark's speech were remarkably
    similar to those discussed by Key (such that Labour worried that
    someone may have leaked the substance of the PM's speech to
    National).  Clark talked up her government's economic legacy and
    stated that under her watch the New Zealand's economy was robust
    enough to withstand current global economic challenges.  She also
    touted her government's progress in climate change and trade issues.
     Like Key, Clark used her opening 2008 salvo to announce new
    education policies -- including raising the age of compulsory
    schooling from 16 to 18 and expanding the new apprenticeship
    training scheme.

    ¶5. (SBU)  A notable divergence from Key was Clark's lack of
    attention to youth crime, a growing hot-button issue with voters.
    Other than blaming a previous National Government's budget (1991)
    that slashed social spending for producing the current generation of
    hardened juvenile offenders, Clark did not provide the sort of
    comprehensive policy prescriptions to address the issue as did her
    political rival.  Moreover, Minister of Justice Annette King
    recently made headlines by downplaying the significance of the youth
    crime problem, claiming that it is not as important an issue as
    National has suggested.

    Media: First Blood to Key
    -------------------------

    ¶6. (SBU)  The media gave higher marks to Key's speech both on
    substance and fresh thinking.  Editorials in New Zealand's two most
    prominent newspapers - The New Zealand Herald and the Dominion Post
    - both gave the political advantage to Key.  The Dominion Post's
    editorial applauded the purpose and detail of Key's speech compared
    to Clark's speech, which the paper noted was primarily a "recitation
    of historical economic data."  The Herald's editors noted that Key's
    proposals were accompanied by extensive referencing and policy

    WELLINGTON 00000026  002 OF 002

    research.  Clark's speech, they noted, seemed to have been "spiced
    at the last minute."  The same editors also assessed that Key's
    incentive-oriented education polices are more practical than Clark's
    compulsion-based initiatives.

    Blogoshere Reaction
    -------------------

    ¶7. (SBU)  As expected, the right-leaning blogs applauded Key's
    speech and generally regarded it as a clean victory over Clark.
    However, many left-leaning blogs, were not as supportive of Clark.
    Most contributors to The Standard, New Zealand's leading left-wing
    blog, were dismissive of Clark's effort, labeling her speech dull
    and calling it a missed opportunity.

    Youth Justice Workers Back Key
    ------------------------------

    ¶8. (SBU)  Leading professionals in the youth justice field,
    including the Principal Youth Court Judge, Andrew Becroft and the
    Sensible Sentencing Trust president Garth McVicar, applauded Key's
    strategy.  The National leader had held meetings with Becroft and
    other experts prior to formulating his policies, and Key's
    willingness to defer to the opinions of others paid off in public
    endorsements, enabling him to show that he is open to broad-based
    consultation.  Clark, on the other hand, received a lukewarm
    reception for her main education proposals from professionals in
    that field.  Educators welcomed Clark's concern but questioned the
    practicality (i.e., GNZ funding support) and clarity of her new
    education policies.

    Other Party Leaders Speak to Supporters
    ---------------------------------------

    ¶9. (SBU)  Although most media attention was on the Clark and Key
    speeches, two other party leaders also recently gave their
    respective first political speeches of the year.  On January 20,
    Green Party co-leader Jeannette Fitzsimmons gave her 'State of the
    Planet' speech, where she issued a challenge to the leaders of the
    major parties for more action and less rhetoric on social and
    environmental issues.  On January 30, the leader of the Progressives
    Jim Anderton, a junior partner in the Labour's governing coalition,
    called for middle class tax relief.  (Note:  Clark has already
    signaled that such relief will be part of her government's budget
    due later in the year.  End Note).

    Comment
    -------

    ¶10. (SBU)  In the past and even in an election year, Clark gave her
    first political speech on the year on the opening day of Parliament,
    which this year falls on February 12.  Her decision to move her
    speech to the day after Key's and also to Auckland suggests that she
    regards him as a genuine threat to her re-election prospects.  It
    also underscores the significance to Labour of winning Auckland
    (where both Key and Clark spoke and where Key has been leading in
    the polls).  Labour's strong showing in South Auckland effectively
    tipped the balance for Clark in 2005.  Clark's avoidance of the
    timely issue of youth crime reveals that her celebrated sense of
    being on the right side of popular opinion may have diminished.
    Key's speech and proposed policies were in contrast to the sometimes
    unfeeling right-wing rhetoric voters came to expect from the
    previous National leader Don Brash, and allowed him to be portrayed
    as a pragmatic centrist.  The two speeches from the main party
    leaders, while similar in subject matter, were essentially a contest
    of choice versus compulsion.  The media claimed Key as the winner in
    the battle of the speeches; upcoming polls will tell if voters
    agree.  End Comment.

    McCormick

`