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### Viewing cable 09BISHKEK288, KYRGYZ POLITICAL SCIENTIST DESCRIBES OPPOSITION'S

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09BISHKEK288 | 2009-04-02 10:57 | 2011-05-25 11:30 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Bishkek

`

    VZCZCXRO7539
    OO RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHDBU RUEHLH RUEHPW
    DE RUEHEK #0288/01 0921057
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 021057Z APR 09
    FM AMEMBASSY BISHKEK
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2034
    INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
    RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
    RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 3020
    RUEKJCS/OSD WASHDC
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
    RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
    RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 1317
    RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO BRUSSELS BE
    RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 3360
    RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 2746
    RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
    RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP
    RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000288

    SIPDIS

    DEPT FOR SCA/CEN, DEPT FOR P (WILLIAM BURNS)

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/02/2019
    TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KG
    SUBJECT: KYRGYZ POLITICAL SCIENTIST DESCRIBES OPPOSITION'S
    PLANS

    REF: A. A. BISHKEK 245
         ¶B. B. BISHKEK 226 AND PREVIOUS
         ¶C. C. BISHKEK 119

    BISHKEK 00000288  001.2 OF 002

    Classified By: Classified By: Amb. Tatiana C. Gfoeller, Reasons 1.4 (b)
     and (d).

    ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Ambassador met with long-time Embassy contact
    and political insider Valentin Bogatyrev on March 31 to
    discuss the current political situation in the country.
    Bogatyrev was convinced that former Presidential
    Administration Head Sadyrkulov had been murdered, either
    because he presented a political threat to President Bakiyev
    or because of his personal conflict with the President's
    brother Janysh.  He said the opposition had united around a
    platform of ousting Bakiyev, and they planned to field
    multiple candidates in the July Presidential election, both
    to drain support from Bakiyev in the regions and to avoid
    making any one candidate the target for government
    harassment.  Bogatyrev said that the unpopular Bakiyev was
    re-orienting Kyrgyzstan's foreign policy toward Russia, while
    also moving toward increasing authoritarianism.  END SUMMARY

    WHO KILLED SADYRKULOV?
    ----------------------

    ¶2. (C) Ambassador met March 31 with Valentin Bogatyrev, a
    political analyst and long-time Embassy contact.  Bogatyrev
    had been close to former Presidential Chief of Staff Medet
    Sadyrkulov and former director of the Kyrgyz International
    Institute for Strategic Studies, Sergei Slepchenko, both of
    whom were killed in a suspicious car "accident" March 13 (Ref
    B).  Bogatyrev had no doubt that Sadyrkulov was murdered, but
    was unsure why he was killed.  Bogatyrev said that "everyone"
    was aware of Sadyrkulov's political project to unite the
    opposition around former Vice Prime Minister Elvira Ibraimova
    (Ref C); the Bakiyev regime saw this project as a real
    political threat and therefore may have wanted to take
    Sadrykulov down.

    ¶3. (C) Bogatyrev said that a second possibility was that
    Sadyrkulov's death had been ordered by Janysh Bakiyev,
    President Bakiyev's brother and head of the Presidential
    Security Service, because of personal rivalries between them.
     Bogatyrev conjectured that Janysh may have used a criminal
    group from the south of Kyrgyzstan to carry out the act,
    using explosive "powder" provided by the security services.
    Bogatyrev knew that Ibraimova had been threatened, but did
    not believe that she or other opposition leaders were in
    immediate physical danger since they do not currently present
    a political threat to Bakiyev.

    OPPOSITION: GUNNING FOR THE PRESIDENT BEFORE THEY GET GUNNED
    DOWN?
    -----------

    ¶4. (C) Bogatyrev claimed to be in regular contact with many
    members of the opposition, though he avoided mentioning any
    personal role in their activities.  Bogatyrev said that
    Sadyrkulov, with his network of contacts and tactical
    abilities, had been indispensable to cobbling together the
    disparate elements of the opposition.  Asked if the
    opposition could pull together without Sadyrkuklov, Bogatyrev
    said that they had essentially united around a platform of
    ousting Bakiyev from power.  He said the opposition planned
    to field multiple candidates for the July Presidential
    election, both to drain support from Bakiyev in the regions
    and to avoid making any one candidate an exclusive target for
    government harassment.  Later in the campaign, at the very
    least by a second round of the election, they would select
    one candidate, likely Ibraimova, but possibly former MP
    Bolotbek Sherniyazov, or former Security Council Chair
    Miroslav Niyazov.

    BISHKEK 00000288  002.2 OF 002

    ¶5. (C) Bogatyrev argued that Bakiyev is actually very weak
    politically right now, with his approval ratings below 10%
    and the country facing a difficult financial situation, and
    Bakiyev would certainly falsify the July election.  Bogatyrev
    said that the opposition hopes that exit polls and observers
    will limit Bakiyev's ability to cheat, but the opposition is
    also preparing to approach election officials at the local
    level in advance of the vote and warn them not to cheat.

    ¶6.  (C)  According to Bogatyrev, there are two schools of
    thought within the opposition on how to go about doing that.
    The "light"-oriented opposition would use moral suasion.  The
    "dark"-oriented opposition is discussing threatening election
    officials with "burning down their houses" and "running them
    out of their villages" if they participate in cheating.  The
    "dark" threat would go something like this: "Bakiyev may be
    powerful but he is far away in Bishkek.  You live in our
    village, your house is in our village, your children go to
    our bvillage school.  We will take vengeance on you if you
    cheat and Bakiyev will be too far away to help you."

    ¶7.  (C)  Bogatyrev expected the opposition to be successful
    in showing their power in the northern regions of Talas,
    Naryn, and Issyk Kul, but believed the opposition's ultimate
    success would depend on its ability to acquire resources to
    fund their efforts.  Bogatyrev said that potential wealthy
    backers existed, but that they were waiting to see who is
    most likely to win power before getting involved.

    THE GEOPOLITICAL SHADOWS BEHIND IT ALL
    --------------------------------------

    ¶8. (C) President Bakiyev, according to Bogatyrev, was trying
    to re-orient Kyrgyzstan away from a multi-vector foreign
    policy and towards Russia, and away from its relatively
    liberal past towards authoritarianism.  Bakiyev was doing
    this, with some success, by appealing to nostalgia for the
    Soviet Union.  Bogatyrev did not believe that Bakiyev
    intended to break his promise to the Russians and let Manas
    Air Base remain, but at the same time, Bakiyev wanted to
    avoid angering the United States before the July Presidential
    election.  Therefore, Bogatyrev reasoned, Bakiyev would try
    to drag out negotiations over Manas Air Base.  Bogatyrev
    added that his contacts in Moscow believe that Russia is
    having second thoughts about backing the unpopular Bakiyev,
    realizing that doing so could endanger its position in
    Central Asia.  "There are people right now in Moscow dealing
    cards with different faces on them," he said.  "Each card is
    a potential Kyrgyz President and the Russians are trying to
    figure out who to back."

    COMMENT
    -------

    ¶9. (C) Over the past couple of years, Bogatyrev has been a
    reliable reporter of Administration thinking and plans. He
    has often been able to accurately presage Bakiyev's actions,
    likely due to his connection to Sadyrkulov.  He remains well
    connected to Kyrgyzstan's political elite, and his
    description of the opposition's current election strategy is
    generally consistent with what opposition figures have told
    us about running multiple candidates.  We still doubt,
    however, that the opposition will be able to unite behind a
    single candidate.
    GFOELLER

`