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### Viewing cable 08TOKYO2148, SCENESETTER FOR ASSISTANT SECRETARY BOUCHER'S

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08TOKYO2148 | 2008-08-05 22:35 | 2011-06-17 00:00 | SECRET | Embassy Tokyo

`

    VZCZCXYZ0000
    OO RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHKO #2148/01 2182235
    ZNY SSSSS ZZH
    O 052235Z AUG 08
    FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
    TO RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO IMMEDIATE 0645
    INFO RUEHAH/AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT IMMEDIATE 0150
    RUEHTA/AMEMBASSY ASTANA IMMEDIATE 0044
    RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING IMMEDIATE 4746
    RUEHEK/AMEMBASSY BISHKEK IMMEDIATE 0196
    RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE IMMEDIATE
    RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD IMMEDIATE 2094
    RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL IMMEDIATE 0610
    RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON IMMEDIATE 2149
    RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW IMMEDIATE 2463
    RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI IMMEDIATE 8561
    RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS IMMEDIATE 6233
    RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL IMMEDIATE 0735
    RUEHNT/AMEMBASSY TASHKENT IMMEDIATE 0244
    RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
    RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6359
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC IMMEDIATE
    RHMFISS/USFJ  IMMEDIATE
    RUEKJCS/CJCS WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC IMMEDIATE
    RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL IMMEDIATE

` `

    S E C R E T TOKYO 002148

    SIPDIS

    EMBASSY COLOMBO PLEASE PASS TO A/S BOUCHER
    DEPT FOR SCA

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2018
    TAGS: PREL KNNP XD ZK JA
    SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR ASSISTANT SECRETARY BOUCHER'S
    VISIT TO TOKYO

    Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer for reasons 1.4(b) and (d
    )

    ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Afghanistan, India, Pakistan, and, to a
    lesser extent, Central Asia are all actively on the Japanese
    radar screen.  We are very glad you were able to reschedule
    your visit to Tokyo to discuss these pressing issues with
    your Japanese counterparts.  On Afghanistan, you will find a
    government that is wrestling with how to do more in order to
    fulfill commitments to the Afghan people and the
    international community to make a ""substantial"" commitment,
    while at the same time fending off political attacks from a
    recently empowered and aggressive opposition party.  On
    India, Japan is also coming to grips with how to support it's
    strongest ally, the United States, and an always close
    friend, India, while remaining true to long-standing
    non-proliferation imperatives.  Foreign Minister Koumura and
    Director General Inomata, who you will meet, will have just
    returned from a three-day visit to New Delhi.  On Pakistan,
    Japan has recently announced an increase in aid in the hopes
    of encouraging the growth of democracy and a more vibrant
    economy.  And in Central Asia, Japanese attempts to counter
    Chinese and Russian inroads, while modest, closely align with
    our efforts to develop southward-looking economies with more
    options for trade and exchange.  Your counterparts from four
    different bureaus are looking forward to sharing their views
    with you and to listening to what you have to tell them about
    U.S. thinking on these critical issues.  END SUMMARY.

    --------------------------
    DOMESTIC POLITICAL CONTEXT
    --------------------------

    ¶2. (C) Many of the issues you will be discussing in Tokyo are
    closely tied to and complicated by a domestic political
    struggle now taking place between the majority Liberal
    Democratic Party (LDP) and the opposition Democratic Party of
    Japan (DPJ).  Until last summer, the LDP and its coalition
    partner, the New Komeito Party, controlled both the upper and
    lower houses of the Diet.  The opposition was largely ignored
    and whatever initiatives the LDP leadership decided to pursue
    were easily enacted.

    ¶3. (C) All that changed in July 2007, when the LDP lost its
    majority control of the upper house after mishandling the
    loss of over 50 millin records of individuals' pension
    contributions.  Although the LDP and New Komeito, with a
    two-thirds majority in the lower house, can still enact
    legislation over the disapproval of the upper house (and in
    fact did so to reauthorize Japan's participation in the
    Operation Enduring Freedom Maritime Interdiction Operation),
    doing so is not taken lightly in the Japanese political
    context.  The bottom line is that with its newfound political
    clout, and its desire to bring down the LDP and seize control
    of the government, the DPJ is now mounting serious opposition
    to many LDP initiatives, such as continued support for OEF
    and for the continued deployment of Air Self Defense Force
    assets in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom.

    ¶4. (C) Even for issues that have not yet come up for
    widespread public debate, such as the U.S.-India civil
    nuclear agreement, the LDP and the New Komeito are now very
    shy about forcing things, fearing that DPJ opposition on
    issues such as deployment of forces abroad or weakening the
    NPT regime will resonate with voters in the next lower house
    election.  The Komeito, which is the political wing of a
    pacifist Buddist sect, is particularly opposed to any
    overseas dispatch of Japanese forces.  Since their support is
    key to LDP power, they have an effective veto over Fukuda's
    policies.

    ¶5. (C) The LDP's declining popularity led Prime Minister
    Fukuda to shuffle his cabinet last week in the hopes of
    strengthening the party's hand for upcoming elections.
    However, the fallout of all of this is that you will find a
    Japanese government whose hands are nearly tied on several
    foreign policy initiatives that are of critical importance to
    us.

    -----------
    AFGHANISTAN
    -----------

    ¶6. (S) It is fair to say that Afghanistan is Issue Number One
    for the recently appointed second cabinet of Prime Minister
    Fukuda.  Under pressure from us and, to a lesser extent,
    other ISAF partners, the Japanese government is in the final
    stages of compiling a package of new financial and personnel
    support measures for Afghanistan.  The new assistance is
    provided in response to a direct request from the President
    to PM Fukuda at the G-8 Summit last month for Japan to expand
    its presence in Afghanistan.  The President told Prime
    Minister Fukuda on July 6 that Japan needed to provide
    ""substantial"" assistance to Afghanistan, underscoring that a
    symbolic contribution would not be adequate or welcome.  He
    specifically requested that Japan dispatch two squadrons of
    CH-47 heavy lift helicopters or take leadership of a PRT.
    Citing his weak domestic political base, however, the Prime
    Minister told the President it would be impossible to send a
    major Self-Defense Force (SDF) ground component to
    Afghanistan and that his government would fall if he pushed
    the Afghan aid issue too hard.

    ¶7. (S) On July 15-16, DASD for Central Asia Bobby Wilkes
    delivered a second option for Japanese support that included
    C-130 airlift support, USD 200 million for 2009/10 Afghan
    elections, a regional hospital network, and USD 20 billion
    over five years to fund the expansion of the Afghan Security
    Forces.  DASD Wilkes emphasized that, taken together, these
    measures would be considered a ""substantial"" package as
    outlined by the President.  The Japanese government now is in
    the final stages of compiling its own package of Afghan
    support programs, which we expect to be provided formally to
    us in the coming weeks.  While Japanese officials say the
    package contains significant financial and civilian personnel
    components, it is unlikely to include a military component or
    substantial participation in a PRT.  It will be important for
    you to re-enforce the President's and DASD Wilkes message on
    the pressing need for a substantial contribution to
    Afghanistan. Japanese will seize on any ambiguity on our part
    to avoid making hard decisions on Afghan aid.

    ¶8. (S) Your counterparts will most likely seek to remind you
    that Japan is already the second largest donor to
    Afghanistan, but this fails to take into consideration the
    operating costs of countries which are deploying military
    forces there, not to mention the casualties they are
    suffering.  When these costs are calculated, Japan slips way
    down the list.  One other disappointment has been the very
    slow progress on the Japanese portion of the ring road.
    We've offered to take over construction of their segment
    while giving them the credit for its eventual completion, but
    they are hesitant to accept this offer.  You should mention
    that we look forward to the prompt completion of the project,
    which we believe will enhance security, enable critically
    needed economic growth, and bolster the authority of the
    central government.

    ------
    INDIA
    -----

    ¶9. (C)  Japan has long-standing and friendly ties with India.
     Former Prime Minister Abe launched a major push to
    strengthen the relationship, which was elevated to the level
    of a ""joint strategic and global partnership"" in 2006, and
    was keen to include India in a ""quad"" relationship with us
    and Australia.  However, under Prime Minister Fukuda,
    Japan-India relations, while still viewed as extremely
    important, have not been pushed quite so hard.  Bilateral
    trade is expanding, but the speed and scope of this expansion
    is limited and remains very small in comparison to India's
    commercial relationship with China, always a factor that the
    Japanese look to.  Prime Minister Fukuda held a brief
    bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Singh last month on the
    sidelines of the G-8 Summit, and Singh is said to be set to
    visit Tokyo later this year.  Foreign Minister Koumura is
    currently visiting New Delhi, where he plans meetings with
    Finance Minister Chidambaram, Minister of Commerce and
    Industry Nath, Minister of Defense Antony, and Minster of
    External Affairs Mukherjee.

    ¶10. (C) On the subject of the U.S.-India civil nuclear
    agreement, Japan has been cautious and has tried to maintain
    a low profile.  While not wishing to antagonize or oppose its
    most important partner -- us -- or a highly regarded friend
    -- India -- Japan's commitment to nuclear non-proliferation
    makes it extremely wary of approving an agreement that many
    view as weakening the NPT regime.  Again, this is another
    issue that, if seized upon by the opposition or public, could
    create problems for the LDP, particularly with its
    pacifist-oriented partner, the New Komeito.  It is unlikely
    Japan will take any action on its own that would impede
    progress on this agreement, but you should take steps to
    assure Japan concerning the agreement and attempt to
    strengthen, if not their support, then at least their
    ""non-opposition.""

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    PAKISTAN
    --------

    ¶11. (C) Foreign Minister Koumura most recently visited
    Pakistan on May 2-4, where he announced an increase in
    Japanese yen loan aid to approximately USD 480 million, more
    than double the amount of the previous year.  Japan believes
    the stability and development of Pakistan is directly linked
    to the peace and stability of the Asian region and of the
    international community as a whole, and that fighting
    terrorism, consolidating democracy and achieving sustainable
    economic growth are more important that ever in Pakistan.
    Japan has also been working with the United States to provide
    assistance in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, but
    progress on Japanese progress has been very slow due to
    security concerns.  Your Japanese counterparts will be very
    interested in where you see Pakistan heading.

    ------------
    CENTRAL ASIA
    ------------

    ¶12. (C) Japan's main interests in Central Asia revolve around
    gaining access to energy resources -- uranium as well as oil
    -- and to competing with China and Russia.  Although DAS
    Feigenbaum has explained to the Japanese that we do not view
    the region through the lens of the ""great game,"" it seems
    that the Japanese still do.  Accordingly, Japan's policies in
    the region are designed to a large extent to avoid forfeiting
    all influence to Russia and China.  Japan's main regional
    mechanism is the ""Central Asia plus Japan"" grouping, which
    has developed an action plan to promote intraregional
    cooperation among the countries of Central Asia.  The third
    senior officials meeting was held last December, and Japan
    was represented at the Deputy Director General level.  Like
    India, Japan's approach to the region has seemingly receded
    from the public view since Prime Minister Fukuda took office.
     Former Foreign Minister Aso's ""Arc of Freedom and
    Prosperity"" focused heavily on providing assistance to the
    developing democracies of the Central Asia.  We have been
    trying, with limited success, to involve Japan in energy
    transmission projects in which hydropower from Central Asian
    countries is moved south to help power the growing economies
    in India and Pakistan, as well as in Afghanistan.  Your visit
    will present an excellent opportunity to discuss with
    counterparts our shared interests in the region and to
    explore ways in which we may work more closely together to
    realize them.

    SCHIEFFER

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