Cable Viewer

Currently released so far... 15072 / 251,287

### Articles

Brazil Sri Lanka United Kingdom Sweden 00. Editorial United States Latin America Egypt Jordan Yemen

### Browse latest releases

2010/11 2010/12 2011/01 2011/02 2011/03 2011/04 2011/05 2011/06
2010/11/28 2010/11/29 2010/11/30
2010/12/01 2010/12/02 2010/12/03 2010/12/04 2010/12/05 2010/12/06 2010/12/07 2010/12/08 2010/12/09 2010/12/10 2010/12/11 2010/12/12 2010/12/13 2010/12/14 2010/12/15 2010/12/16 2010/12/17 2010/12/18 2010/12/19 2010/12/20 2010/12/21 2010/12/22 2010/12/23 2010/12/24 2010/12/25 2010/12/26 2010/12/27 2010/12/28 2010/12/29 2010/12/30
2011/01/01 2011/01/02 2011/01/04 2011/01/05 2011/01/07 2011/01/09 2011/01/10 2011/01/11 2011/01/12 2011/01/13 2011/01/14 2011/01/15 2011/01/16 2011/01/17 2011/01/18 2011/01/19 2011/01/20 2011/01/21 2011/01/22 2011/01/23 2011/01/24 2011/01/25 2011/01/26 2011/01/27 2011/01/28 2011/01/29 2011/01/30 2011/01/31
2011/02/01 2011/02/02 2011/02/03 2011/02/04 2011/02/05 2011/02/06 2011/02/07 2011/02/08 2011/02/09 2011/02/10 2011/02/11 2011/02/12 2011/02/13 2011/02/14 2011/02/15 2011/02/16 2011/02/17 2011/02/18 2011/02/19 2011/02/20 2011/02/21 2011/02/22 2011/02/23 2011/02/24 2011/02/25 2011/02/26 2011/02/27 2011/02/28
2011/03/01 2011/03/02 2011/03/03 2011/03/04 2011/03/05 2011/03/06 2011/03/07 2011/03/08 2011/03/09 2011/03/10 2011/03/11 2011/03/13 2011/03/14 2011/03/15 2011/03/16 2011/03/17 2011/03/18 2011/03/19 2011/03/20 2011/03/21 2011/03/22 2011/03/23 2011/03/24 2011/03/25 2011/03/26 2011/03/27 2011/03/28 2011/03/29 2011/03/30 2011/03/31
2011/04/01 2011/04/02 2011/04/03 2011/04/04 2011/04/05 2011/04/06 2011/04/07 2011/04/08 2011/04/09 2011/04/10 2011/04/11 2011/04/12 2011/04/13 2011/04/14 2011/04/15 2011/04/16 2011/04/17 2011/04/18 2011/04/19 2011/04/20 2011/04/21 2011/04/22 2011/04/23 2011/04/24 2011/04/25 2011/04/26 2011/04/27 2011/04/28 2011/04/29 2011/04/30
2011/05/01 2011/05/02 2011/05/03 2011/05/04 2011/05/05 2011/05/06 2011/05/07 2011/05/08 2011/05/09 2011/05/10 2011/05/11 2011/05/12 2011/05/13 2011/05/14 2011/05/15 2011/05/16 2011/05/17 2011/05/18 2011/05/19 2011/05/20 2011/05/21 2011/05/22 2011/05/23 2011/05/24 2011/05/25 2011/05/26 2011/05/27 2011/05/28 2011/05/29 2011/05/30 2011/05/31
2011/06/01 2011/06/02 2011/06/03 2011/06/04 2011/06/05 2011/06/06 2011/06/07 2011/06/08 2011/06/09 2011/06/10 2011/06/11 2011/06/12 2011/06/13 2011/06/14 2011/06/15 2011/06/16 2011/06/17 2011/06/18 2011/06/19 2011/06/20

### Browse by creation date

66 72 73 75 79 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
1966/12
1972/02 1972/08
1973/04
1975/03
1979/08
1985/03 1985/05 1985/06
1986/05 1986/08
1987/06
1988/01 1988/03 1988/07 1988/08 1988/12
1989/12
1990/01 1990/07 1990/08 1990/10
1991/05
1992/01 1992/03 1992/06 1992/09 1992/12
1993/01 1993/10
1994/11 1994/12
1995/01 1995/04
1996/07 1996/09 1996/11
1997/02 1997/05 1997/06 1997/10 1997/12
1998/05
1999/09
2000/05 2000/06 2000/09 2000/11
2001/02 2001/03 2001/04 2001/05 2001/06 2001/07 2001/09 2001/10 2001/11 2001/12
2002/01 2002/02 2002/03 2002/04 2002/07 2002/08 2002/09 2002/11 2002/12
2003/01 2003/02 2003/03 2003/04 2003/05 2003/06 2003/07 2003/08 2003/09 2003/10 2003/11 2003/12
2004/01 2004/02 2004/03 2004/04 2004/05 2004/06 2004/07 2004/08 2004/09 2004/10 2004/11 2004/12
2005/01 2005/02 2005/03 2005/04 2005/05 2005/06 2005/07 2005/08 2005/09 2005/10 2005/11 2005/12
2006/01 2006/02 2006/03 2006/04 2006/05 2006/06 2006/07 2006/08 2006/09 2006/10 2006/11 2006/12
2007/01 2007/02 2007/03 2007/04 2007/05 2007/06 2007/07 2007/08 2007/09 2007/10 2007/11 2007/12
2008/01 2008/02 2008/03 2008/04 2008/05 2008/06 2008/07 2008/08 2008/09 2008/10 2008/11 2008/12
2009/01 2009/02 2009/03 2009/04 2009/05 2009/06 2009/07 2009/08 2009/09 2009/10 2009/11 2009/12
2010/01 2010/02

### Browse by origin

A B C D F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W Y Z
Embassy Athens Embassy Asuncion Embassy Astana Embassy Asmara Embassy Ashgabat Embassy Apia Embassy Ankara Embassy Amman Embassy Algiers Embassy Addis Ababa Embassy Accra Embassy Abuja Embassy Abu Dhabi Embassy Abidjan Consulate Auckland Consulate Amsterdam Consulate Adana American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura Embassy Buenos Aires Embassy Budapest Embassy Bucharest Embassy Brussels Embassy Bridgetown Embassy Bratislava Embassy Brasilia Embassy Bogota Embassy Bishkek Embassy Bern Embassy Berlin Embassy Belmopan Embassy Belgrade Embassy Beirut Embassy Beijing Embassy Banjul Embassy Bangkok Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan Embassy Bamako Embassy Baku Embassy Baghdad Consulate Belfast Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen Embassy Conakry Embassy Colombo Embassy Chisinau Embassy Caracas Embassy Canberra Embassy Cairo Consulate Curacao Consulate Ciudad Juarez Consulate Chiang Mai Consulate Chennai Consulate Casablanca Consulate Cape Town Consulate Calgary
Embassy Dushanbe Embassy Dublin Embassy Doha Embassy Djibouti Embassy Dili Embassy Dhaka Embassy Dar Es Salaam Embassy Damascus Embassy Dakar Consulate Dubai
Embassy Freetown Consulate Fukuoka
Embassy Guatemala Embassy Gaborone Consulate Guayaquil Consulate Guangzhou Consulate Guadalajara
Embassy Helsinki Embassy Harare Embassy Hanoi Consulate Hong Kong Consulate Ho Chi Minh City Consulate Hermosillo Consulate Hamilton Consulate Hamburg Consulate Halifax
Iran RPO Dubai Embassy Islamabad Consulate Istanbul
Embassy Jakarta Consulate Jerusalem Consulate Jeddah
Embassy Kyiv Embassy Kuwait Embassy Kuala Lumpur Embassy Kinshasa Embassy Kingston Embassy Kigali Embassy Khartoum Embassy Kathmandu Embassy Kampala Embassy Kabul Consulate Kolkata Consulate Karachi
Embassy Luxembourg Embassy Luanda Embassy London Embassy Ljubljana Embassy Lisbon Embassy Lima Embassy Lilongwe Embassy La Paz Consulate Lahore Consulate Lagos
Mission USOSCE Mission USNATO Mission UNESCO Mission Geneva Embassy Muscat Embassy Moscow Embassy Montevideo Embassy Monrovia Embassy Minsk Embassy Mexico Embassy Mbabane Embassy Maputo Embassy Manila Embassy Manama Embassy Managua Embassy Malabo Embassy Madrid Consulate Munich Consulate Mumbai Consulate Montreal Consulate Monterrey Consulate Milan Consulate Melbourne
Embassy Nicosia Embassy Niamey Embassy New Delhi Embassy Ndjamena Embassy Nassau Embassy Nairobi Consulate Nuevo Laredo Consulate Naples Consulate Naha
Embassy Ouagadougou Embassy Ottawa Embassy Oslo
Embassy Pristina Embassy Pretoria Embassy Prague Embassy Port Of Spain Embassy Port Louis Embassy Port Au Prince Embassy Phnom Penh Embassy Paris Embassy Paramaribo Embassy Panama Consulate Peshawar
Embassy Quito Consulate Quebec
REO Basrah Embassy Rome Embassy Riyadh Embassy Riga Embassy Reykjavik Embassy Rangoon Embassy Rabat Consulate Rio De Janeiro Consulate Recife
Secretary of State Embassy Suva Embassy Stockholm Embassy Sofia Embassy Skopje Embassy Singapore Embassy Seoul Embassy Sarajevo Embassy Santo Domingo Embassy Santiago Embassy Sanaa Embassy San Salvador Embassy San Jose Consulate Strasbourg Consulate St Petersburg Consulate Shenyang Consulate Shanghai Consulate Sapporo Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis Embassy Tripoli Embassy Tokyo Embassy The Hague Embassy Tel Aviv Embassy Tehran Embassy Tegucigalpa Embassy Tbilisi Embassy Tashkent Embassy Tallinn Consulate Toronto Consulate Tijuana Consulate Thessaloniki
USUN New York USEU Brussels US Office Almaty US Mission Geneva US Interests Section Havana US Delegation, Secretary UNVIE UN Rome Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Embassy Vilnius Embassy Vienna Embassy Vatican Embassy Valletta Consulate Vladivostok Consulate Vancouver
Embassy Windhoek Embassy Wellington Embassy Warsaw
Embassy Yerevan Embassy Yaounde
Embassy Zagreb

### Browse by tag

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
ASEC AEMR AMGT AR APECO AU AORC AJ AF AFIN AS AM ABLD AFFAIRS AMB APER AA AG AE ADM ALOW ACOA AID ATRN AND ADANA APEC ARABL ADPM ADCO ANARCHISTS AADP ANET AL AGAO AMED AY AORG ASEAN ABUD AO AGRICULTURE AINF AROC ARF ACABQ APCS AODE AX AMEX AZ ASUP ARM AQ ATFN AMBASSADOR ACBAQ AFSI AFSN AC ASIG ASEX AER AVERY ASCH AFU AMG ATPDEA ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG AORL AN AIT AGMT ACS AGR AMCHAMS AECL AUC AFGHANISTAN ACAO
BR BB BG BEXP BY BA BRUSSELS BU BD BK BL BH BM BO BE BTIO BIDEN BILAT BP BX BC BBG BF BBSR BT BMGT BWC BEXPC BN BTIU
CPAS CA CASC CS CBW CIDA CO CODEL CI CROS CU CH CWC CMGT CVIS CDG CG CF CHIEF CJAN CBSA CE CY CD CT CM CONS CDC CR CW CN COUNTRY CONDOLEEZZA CZ CICTE CYPRUS CARICOM CBE COM COE CACS CIVS CTR CARSON COUNTER CAPC COPUOS CFED CV CKGR CHR CVR CLINTON COUNTERTERRORISM CITEL CLEARANCE CB CIC CITT CSW CARIB CAFTA CACM CDB CJUS CTM CAN CONSULAR CLMT CBC CIA CNARC CIS CEUDA CHINA CAC CL
DR DJ DHS DAO DCM DO DEFENSE DA DOMESTIC DK DOD DE DPRK DEPT DEA DISENGAGEMENT DOE DTRA DS DEAX
ECON ETTC EFIS ETRD EC EMIN EAGR EAID EU EFIN EUN ECIN EG EWWT EINV ENRG ELAB EPET EN EAIR EUMEM ECPS ELTN EIND EZ EI ER ET EINT ECONOMIC ENIV EFTA ES ERNG ECONOMY ELECTIONS EXIM ENERG ECIP EREL EK EDEV EPA ENGR ETRC ENVI EXTERNAL ELN EAIDS EINVEFIN ECA EUREM EDU ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS ECOSOC EFINECONCS ETC ENVR EAP EINN EXBS ENGY ECONOMICS EIAR EINDETRD ECONEFIN EURN ETRDEINVTINTCS EFIM EINVETC ECONCS ETRA ESA EAIG EUR EUC ERD ETRN EINVECONSENVCSJA EEPET EUNCH ESENV ENNP ECINECONCS ETRO ETRDECONWTOCS ECUN
FI FR FAS FOREIGN FTAA FREEDOM FBI FINANCE FAO FAA FJ FTA FARC FAC FM FDA FINR FOR FOI FO FMLN FISO
GM GG GERARD GT GA GR GTIP GLOBAL GCC GV GL GOV GOI GF GH GANGS GE GTMO GAERC GZ GAZA GY GUILLERMO GASPAR
HR HO HA HYMPSK HK HUMAN HURI HU HILLARY HI HUM HSTC HEBRON HUMOR
IZ IN IAEA IS IMO ILO IR IC IT ITU IV IMF IBRD IWC IRAQI IDB ISRAELI ITALY ID ITPGOV ITALIAN ISCON ICAO IFAD IPR IRAQ INMARSAT ICRC ICJ INTERNAL ITRA IQ INDO IO IRS IIP IEFIN ICTY ILC IA INTERPOL IEA INR INRB IAHRC ISRAEL IZPREL IRAJ IF ITPHUM IL IACI IDA ISLAMISTS IGAD ITF INRA INRO IBET INTELSAT IDP ICTR IRC
JA JO JM JP JUS JOSEPH JAMES JOHN JOHNNIE JML JIMENEZ
KNNP KFLO KDEM KOMC KSUM KIPR KFLU KPAO KE KCRM KJUS KAWC KZ KSCA KDRG KCOR KGHG KPAL KTIP KMCA KCRS KPKO KOLY KRVC KVPR KG KWBG KMDR KTER KSPR KV KTFN KWMN KFRD KSTH KS KN KISL KGIC KSEP KFIN KTEX KTIA KUNR KCMR KMOC KCIP KTDB KBIO KU KIRF KICC KSTC KIRC KIDE KNUC KSEO KCFE KPWR KSAF KR KNUP KCSY KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KHLS KOCI KMPI KPAONZ KNAR KPRP KHDP KNPP KTBT KMCC KPRV KHIV KTRD KTAO KHSA KWAC KJUST KMRS KCRCM KSCI KACT KVRP KBTS KO KAWK KBCT KVIR KENV KMFO KNNPMNUC KERG KPIR KCOM KAID KTLA KFSC KX KPOA KNDP KRCM KCFC KNEI KCHG KPLS KREL KFTFN KTFM KLIG KDEMAF KRAD KBTR KGIT KGCC KICA KHUM KSEC KPIN KESS KDEV KWWMN KOM KWNM KRFD KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KRGY KREC KIFR KSAC KWMNCS KPAK KOMS KFPC KRIM KDDG KCGC KPAI KID KMIG KNSD KWMM
LY LE LABOR LTTE LU LO LA LI LG LH LAB LT LOG
MARR MX MASS MOPS MNUC MCAP MTCRE MRCRE MTRE MASC MY MK MAS MO MCA MIL MTCR MEPP MG ML MAPP MAR MU MZ MD MP MR MA MOPPS MTS MLS MILI MEPN MEPI MEETINGS MERCOSUR MW MT MCC MIK MAPS MV MILITARY MARAD MDC MASSMNUC MUCN MEDIA MI MQADHAFI MPOS MPS MC
NZ NATO NI NO NG NL NU NPT NS NP NA NATIONAL NC NSF NDP NIPP NSSP NATOIRAQ NR NE NGO NAS NZUS NH NSG NAFTA NEW NRR NT NASA NAR NK NOVO NATOPREL NEA NSC NV NPA NSFO NW NORAD NPG
OTRA OECD OVIP OREP OPRC ODC OIIP OPDC OAS OSCE OPIC OMS OEXC OPCW OPAD ODIP OSCI OFDP OIE OFFICIALS OVIPPRELUNGANU OHUM OTR OMIG OSAC OBSP OFDA OVP ON OCII OES OCS OIC
PGOV PREL PARM PINR PHUM PM PREF PTER PK PINS PBIO PHSA PE PBTS PL POL PAK POV POLITICS POLICY PERL PA PCI PNAT PAS PALESTINIAN PPA PROP PREZ PRELPK PAIGH PO PROG POLITICAL PJUS PMIL PDOV PTE PARMS PG PRAM PAO PREO PGOF PTERE PINO PSI PRGOV PORG PP PS PKFK PSOE PEPR PDEM PINT PMAR PRELP PREFA PNG PTBS PFOR PUNE PGOVLO PHUMBA POLINT PGOVE PHALANAGE PARTY PECON PY PLN PHUH PEDRO PF PHUS PU PARTIES PCUL PGGV PSA PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA PGIV PHUMPREL POGOV PEL PINL PBT PINF PRL PSEPC POSTS PAHO PHUMPGOV PGOC PNR PROV
QA
RS RP RU RW RFE RCMP RIGHTSPOLMIL ROBERT RM RICE RO RELAM ROOD REGION RSP RF RELATIONS RIGHTS RUPREL REMON RPEL REACTION REPORT RSO
SZ SENV SOCI SNAR SY SO SP SU SI SMIG SYR SA SCUL SW SR SYRIA SNARM SPECIALIST SF SEN SN SC SMIL SCRM STEINBERG SENVSXE SARS SL SAARC SCRS SWE SG SNARIZ SAN ST SIPDIS SSA SPCVIS SOFA SENVKGHG SANC SHI SEVN SHUM SK SH SNARCS SPCE SNARN SIPRS
TRGY TBIO TSPA TU TPHY TI TX TH TIP TSPL TNGD TP TW TS TZ TN TC TF TT TK TRAD TD TL TV TWI TERRORISM TO TRSY TURKEY TSPAM TRT TINT TFIN TAGS TR TBID THPY
UNSC UK UNGA UN US UZ USEU UG UP UNAUS UNMIK USTR UR UY UA USPS UNSCR UNHRC UNESCO UV UNMIC UNCHR USUN UNDP UNHCR USGS USNC USOAS UNEP USAID UE UNVIE UAE UNO UNODC UNCHS UNFICYP UNDESCO UNC UNPUOS UNDC UNICEF UNCHC UNCSD UNFCYP UNIDROIT UNCND
VE VM VT VZ VTEG VTIZ VISIT VTPREL VENZ VAT VC VI VN
WHTI WIPO WTRO WFP WS WHO WTO WA WZ WI WBG WMD WWARD WHA WITH WTRQ WEU WMO WB
XA XR XW XX XK XL XM XS XF XG XT XC XH XD XB XU XE XV XY XZ XQ XI XTAG
YI YM YL YMCS YE
ZU ZI ZP ZR ZOELLICK ZF ZK ZO ZL ZB ZH ZT ZJ ZEALAND ZN ZA ZANU

### Browse by classification

CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN SECRET SECRET//NOFORN UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

### Community resources

Follow us on Twitter Check our Reddit Twitter this Digg this page Contact us on IRC

courage is contagious

### Viewing cable 09ASHGABAT1182, IRAN: WHERE TO GO FROM HERE? XXXXXXXXXXXX DIPLOMAT SHARES HIS PERSPECTIVE

If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:

- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.

To understand the justification used for the classification of each cable, please use this WikiSource article as reference.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #09ASHGABAT1182.

Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09ASHGABAT1182 | 2009-09-16 11:18 | 2010-11-28 18:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Ashgabat

`

    VZCZCXRO6903
    PP RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHDBU RUEHDE RUEHDIR RUEHKUK RUEHLH
    RUEHNEH RUEHPW RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR RUEHTRO
    DE RUEHAH #1182/01 2591118
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 161118Z SEP 09
    FM AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3474
    INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
    RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
    RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
    RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
    RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 5677
    RUEHDE/AMCONSUL DUBAI 0111
    RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 3920
    RHMCSUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
    RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ASHGABAT 001182
    SIPDIS

    STATE FOR NEA/IR

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/16/2019
    TAGS: IR PGOV PREL TX UNESCO
    SUBJECT: IRAN: WHERE TO GO FROM HERE? XXXXXXXXXXXX DIPLOMAT SHARES HIS PERSPECTIVE

    ASHGABAT 00001182 001.2 OF 003

    Classified By: Acting DCM Peter Eckstrom, Reasons 1.4(b) and (d)

    ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: XXXXXXXXXXXX's advised in a recent conversation with Ashgabat Iran Watcher that the U.S. would be ill-advised to begin talks with Iran, that it would be great disappointment to Iranians who have found hope in President Obama's message of change. He called Iran's leadership “untrustworthy,” and described the three main groups that he said are sustaining the regime: the “clerical establishment, the paramilitaries and the Bazaaris (merchant class).” XXXXXXXXXXXX finds little difference between any of the major figures in Iran, including most members of the opposition. END SUMMARY.

    A TRIANGULAR BASE OF SUPPORT

    ¶2. (C) In a XXXXXXXXXXXX conversation with Iran Watcher, XXXXXXXXXXXX described his country's present political climate, stating that “nothing has changed” in either the power structure or how major decisions are made in Iran. He described the Iranian regime as a “total dictatorship,” whose continued survival depends on a “triangular” power base made up of the clerical establishment, the “bazaari” (merchants), and the “paramilitaries” (Revolutionary Guards and Basij). He said the three groups are so enmeshed, so dependent on one another, including through arranged marriages and business dealings, that the severance of any one of the three from the others would cause the regime to collapse. Supreme Leader Khamenei makes no decisions without consulting with son Mojtabah, he said, who is reputed to be “running his father's office,” in close consultation with Ayatollah Mohammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi and Kayhan editor-in-chief Hossein Shariatmadari.

    ¶3. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX compared the regime to the dictatorships of Hitler and Mussolini, and said the only difference was that Iran, unlike Nazi Germany, has had the “foresight” not to invade another country militarily, thereby preventing, in his view, any “concerted or effective international response” to its human rights violations or support for terrorism abroad. The demonstrations that began after the June presidential election and continue still are the manifestation of a youthful population that is “fed up” and demanding their “most basic human rights.” He observed that the stress that thirty years of repression is more and more causing the population to suffer from psychological problems.

    ENGAGEMENT?…NOT WITH THIS GOVERNMENT

    ¶4. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX was adamant that for the U.S. to enter into direct talks with Iran's leadership would be a mistake. Not only, he insisted, is the Iranian leadership “untrustworthy,” and dominated by a group of “messianics,” who base crucial decisions about domestic and foreign policy on a belief in the imminent return of the “Missing” (Twelfth) Imam. More importantly, he said, so many Iranians are pinning their hopes on President Obama's message of change, that for the U.S. now to negotiate with a government that continues to repress and violate the most basic rights of its citizens would be a huge disappointment, a blow to their own aspirations for change in Iran.

    THIS IS NOT 1980

    ¶5. (C) He said Iran is no longer the country or society that rallied around the war effort when Iraq invaded them in 1980. On the contrary, he said, many people he knows are actually saying things like, “Where is Israel? Why don't they just attack us and put an end to this leadership?” He said, however, that new sanctions on necessities such as fuel, would meet with immense public anger as they would mostly affect those who rely on gasoline to commute or make a living.

    ASHGABAT 00001182 002.2 OF 003 THE EDUCATION SYSTEM: A TOTAL MESS

    ¶6. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX estimated that if one counts both teachers and educators, about a third of the country is part of the education system. He lamented the government's “squandering” of its greatest national resource, the 70% of the population who are under the age of 29, with what he called “substandard schooling.” “Such a youthful population, properly educated and trained, could be Iran's greatest asset,” he said. Twenty percent of the population is illiterate, and the rest is comprised of two groups: those who are educated and informed (i.e. the voters who supported Mousavi and Karroubi), and the other, lesser-educated group more likely to follow the dictates of the government and the clerical establishment.

    DETAINEES RELEASED AFTER PAYMENTS OF CASH

    ¶7. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX said that people detained following the June election have had to pay large sums to be released. He described the parents and grandparents of Nazak Afshar, the French embassy local employee arrested and later released in August, as financially “ruined” after having to pay $500,000 for her release. “It took everything they owned,” he said, “they have absolutely nothing now.” Those whose families have no assets at all “don't have a prayer” of getting out, he said.

    AHMADINEJAD OR MOUSAVI: SHADES OF GRAY

    ¶8. (C) In XXXXXXXXXXXX's view, the recent presidential election presented no real choice to the Iranian public, just the “facade” of one, because Mousavi “himself is an insider, part of the establishment,” and was even responsible as prime minister during the 1980's for the creation of the dreaded “morality police.” He said that the authorities made a big mistake in not allowing Mousavi to win the election in accordance with the popular vote. “They could have controlled him, nothing would have changed, but their actions have now unleashed a frustration and an anger that they cannot control.” He is equally unimpressed with former Presidents Khatami and Rafsanjani, whom he deems, “just as interested in their personal fortunes over the interests of the people as everyone else,” citing in particular the violent crackdowns on the student population that took place during Khatami's presidency.

    THE ANSWER?…STOP THE FLOW OF CASH

    ¶9. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX sees the sanctions regime as ineffective. The infusion of cash from abroad is keeping the Iranian regime afloat 30 years after the revolution, including (indirectly, mostly through the UAE) from the U.S. and Europe. Large amounts of money for investment in the markets, especially Tehran's booming real estate market, is keeping the Bazaaris content. Investment in the sale of commodities, for example, brings a return of 50% per year, he said, and investors in real estate can double their money in just a few months. “The Bazaaris are the key to everything, just as they were in 1979,” he said. “To see an end to this regime, cut off the funds coming through Dubai. If the regime loses the support of the Bazaaris, that will be the end of it.” He considered it telling that, when the government attempted to impose a V.A.T. last winter, merchants went on strike and the bazaars were closed for several days. By comparison, he said, the bazaar has not closed once since the election in June, even during the demonstrations and mass arrests that followed.

    ¶10. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX

    ¶11. (C) BIO NOTE AND COMMENT: XXXXXXXXXXXX

    ¶12. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX does nothing to hide his disdain for Iran's theocracy. In his view, it is a regime that is fundamentially flawed and incapable of reforming itself, respecting basic human rights, or becoming a responsible member of the international community. His scathing criticism is not directed only at Iran, however. He also expressed disappointment at the UN, and what he termed it's “shameful silence in the face of such blatant human rights violations” in Iran. XXXXXXXXXXXX. END COMMENT.
    CURRAN

`