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### Viewing cable 06LIMA2885, HUMALA A HAS-BEEN, SAYS FORMER ADVISOR, NOW

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06LIMA2885 | 2006-07-25 19:37 | 2011-05-18 12:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Lima
Appears in these articles: elcomercio.pe

`

    VZCZCXYZ0000
    RR RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHPE #2885/01 2061937
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    R 251937Z JUL 06
    FM AMEMBASSY LIMA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1502
    INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 3686
    RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6903
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 9681
    RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ JUL QUITO 0559
    RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0747
    RUMIAAA/CDR USCINCSO MIAMI FL

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 002885

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/24/2016
    TAGS: PGOV PINR PHUM VE PE
    SUBJECT: HUMALA A HAS-BEEN, SAYS FORMER ADVISOR, NOW
    ADVERSARY

    REF: A. LIMA 0086

         ¶B. LIMA 04854 (05)
         ¶C. LIMA 49...

    id: 72567
    date: 7/25/2006 19:37
    refid: 06LIMA2885
    origin: Embassy Lima
    classification: CONFIDENTIAL
    destination: 06LIMA86
    header:
    VZCZCXYZ0000
    RR RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHPE #2885/01 2061937
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    R 251937Z JUL 06
    FM AMEMBASSY LIMA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1502
    INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 3686
    RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6903
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 9681
    RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ JUL QUITO 0559
    RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0747
    RUMIAAA/CDR USCINCSO MIAMI FL

    ----------------- header ends ----------------

    C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 002885

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/24/2016
    TAGS: PGOV PINR PHUM VE PE
    SUBJECT: HUMALA A HAS-BEEN, SAYS FORMER ADVISOR, NOW
    ADVERSARY

    REF: A. LIMA 0086

         ¶B. LIMA 04854 (05)
         ¶C. LIMA 4968 (03)

    Classified By: A/POL David C. Brooks, for Reasons 1.4 (c,d)

    --------
    Summary:
    --------

    ¶1.  (C) Former radical, anti-system presidential candidate
    for the Union por el Peru (UPP) and Peruvian Nationalist
    (PNP) parties Ollanta Humala will neither be able to control
    the 43-person Congressional bloc elected with him nor will he
    succeed in electing political allies in November's regional
    and municipal elections, ex-Humala political advisor Carlos
    Torres Caro told Ambassador on 7/21.  Torres Caro added that
    Humala lacks "leadership" and that the quality of the
    Congress representatives in his group is low.  Torres Caro
    took credit for peeling away the action wings of Humala's
    movement -- both the cocaleros and the "Reservists" of Humala
    brother Antauro's Ethnocacerist group -- when he broke with
    Humala shortly after the 6/4 runoff presidential election.
    Though he may overestimate his influence and could be too
    eager to write off Humala, the crippling cleavages Torres
    Caro describes in Humala's post-presidential movement track
    with what others have been telling us.  They indicate that a
    post-election Humala might not be the threat in November's
    regional and municipal balloting that many had feared.  End
    Summary.

    --------------------------------------
    Ambassador Meets Ex-Humala Top Advisor
    --------------------------------------

    ¶2.  (C) Ambassador met with ex-Ollanta Humala advisor Carlos
    Torres Caro and his political ally, Congressman-elect Gustavo
    Espinoza, on 7/21/06.  Torres Caro recently broke with
    Ollanta Humala and has announced plans to form his own
    Congressional group and political party (to be named the
    Democratic Party, PD).  Torres Caro knows the inside of the
    Humala movement well and spoke of its internal dynamics
    during the campaign, the reasons for his own rupture with
    Humala, and Humala's prospects for continuing as a force in
    Peruvian politics.

    ¶3.  (C) Torres Caro reviewed his participation in the Humala
    movement, which began when he represented the Humala brothers
    as their attorney after the failed putsch they organized
    against former President Fujimori in 2000.  This culminated
    with Torres Caro's selection as Humala's second vice
    President and his congressional candidacy at the top of the
    PNP-UPP's congressional list.  (Torres Caro won his seat with
    the highest vote total of any candidate on the UPP-PNP
    ticket.)

    ¶4.  (C) Looking back on the campaign, Torres Caro said a
    variety of voices had vied for Humala's ear.  He identified
    the three main groups around Humala as: the far left,
    Humala's ex-military contacts, and the democrats.  The last
    group was the one Torres Caro led.  Torres Caro described how
    he and Humala's wife, Nadine Heredia, had tried to keep the
    radicals at bay.  He also noted that campaign planning
    proceeded in secret.  When Humala made his lightning visit to
    Caracas in January, for example, Torres Caro was unaware of
    the trip until hearing about it in the media (Ref A).

    ¶5.  (C) In retrospect, Torres Caro concluded, Humala had
    played with all of the factions around him, all along
    secretly favoring the far left.  Torres Caro implied that

    SIPDIS
    Humala's capture by the far left explained the candidate's
    inability to stop Hugo Chavez from intervening in the
    campaign even though Chavez' ham-handed attempts to influence
    Peruvian voters were backfiring.  He also noted Humala's
    financial dependence on Chavez, stating that so much money
    was coming in from Venezuela to finance Humala that the
    candidate had to purchase a large safe for his house.  Torres
    Caro said that a considerable portion of  the campaign's
    funds remained unspent.

    --------------------------------------------- ---------
    Post-Election Humala: Garcia Will Fall "In Six Months"
    --------------------------------------------- ---------

    ¶6.  (C) Torres Caro repeated public claims that he broke with

    Humala right after the 6/4 presidential runoff when Humala
    chose the path of radical opposition to President-elect Alan
    Garcia.  Humala, he said, expected Garcia to fall &in six
    months,8 a conclusion with which Torres Caro disagreed.
    Instead, the latter proposed that the Peruvian National Party
    (PNP) and Union por el Peru (UPP) alliance that had supported
    Ollanta Humala get itself organized, form a solid
    Congressional bloc, and push for development programs for the
    south and the sierras (regions like Ayacucho and Arequipa
    that Humala carried overwhelmingly) with an eye toward
    building an electoral base for the 2011 presidential race.

    ¶7.  (C) Humala rejected this strategy, opting instead to try
    to destabilize the Garcia Government.  Seeing that his
    candidate had been &completely captured8 by the radical
    left, Torres Caro left the Humala movement.  Since leaving,
    Torres Caro claims to have  developed close relationships
    with both Antauro Humala (Ollanta's brother, now in jail
    along with over one hundred of his followers ) called
    &Reservists8 -- for having launched an abortive rebellion
    against the Toledo Government on New Year's Eve 2005 -- Refs
    B,C) and the cocaleros.  He said that both these groups felt
    betrayed by Humala, who seems more interested in launching a
    political party loyal to him than in addressing their issues.
    Torres Caro noted that Ollanta Humala's brother, Antauro, was
    particularly concerned for the health of the Reservists, many
    of whom are languishing in prison as their families suffer.
    Torres Caro claimed that by breaking with Ollanta Humala, he
    had pulled these two groups away from the ex-candidate,
    denying him his political "artillery" (i.e. the ability to
    create disturbances) and contributing to governability in
    Peru.  Alan Garcia, Torres Caro maintained, was well aware of
    the positive role he had played in diminishing Ollanta
    Humala's ability to cause trouble.

    ------------------
    Humala's Prospects
    ------------------

    ¶8.  (C) Torres Caro said that the prospects for the Humala
    movement continuing are grim.  He gave a scathing appraisal
    of the quality of the 43-person PNP-UPP Congressional bloc,
    which he said was divided into several factions that he
    characterized in the following way: radical cocaleros or
    radical leftists with limited, if enthusiastic, political
    bases in marginal areas (about 7 members); country folk with
    no political experience and, even more important, little if
    any experience with either urban life or office work (Torres
    Caro said some in this group were getting their first cell
    phones or offices; about 26 members); and sophisticated
    opportunists, people who know urban life, have some personal
    resources, but are totally lacking in political experience
    (about 10 members).  He said there was no way these three
    groups would stay together, and he predicted that 6-7 more
    congress representatives would eventually join his movement.

    ¶9.  (C) Torres Caro took a similarly dim view of the
    Humalistas' prospects in upcoming regional and municipal
    elections.  Some had feared that PNP candidates might
    dominate in Humala's base areas, creating a "solid south" and
    "solid sierras," blocs of anti-Lima, anti-system regional
    governments that could have made life difficult for
    President-elect Alan Garcia.

    ¶10.  (C) Torres Caro discounted this scenario.  He said that
    Ollanta Humala has "no real leadership" qualities, that he
    "only knows how to boss people" but not how to lead.  Humala,
    he said, is trying to impose his personal candidates on his
    party in the regions, with very poor results.  Torres Caro
    indicated that the winners in regional and municipal
    elections would be strong local candidates, as has been the
    case in the recent past.

    --------
    Comment:
    --------

    ¶11.  (C) Torres Caro likely overestimates his own role in
    breaking up the pro-Humala forces and may be too sanguine
    about the prospects for Humala's disappearance from the
    political scene.  That said, his insights into the basic
    cleavages in the Humala movement and his commitment, however
    opportunistically motivated, to promoting governability in
    Peru could be helpful.  Torres Caro is a flexible, capable
    actor with, so far, a good sense of timing.  His decision to

    jump from Humala's ship could be an indication of things to
    come.
    STRUBLE

    =======================CABLE ENDS============================

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