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### Viewing cable 08LAGOS376, NIGERIA: AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH GOVERNORS FORUM

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08LAGOS376 | 2008-09-24 07:37 | 2011-05-31 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Consulate Lagos

`

    VZCZCXRO0214
    OO RUEHPA
    DE RUEHOS #0376/01 2680737
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 240737Z SEP 08
    FM AMCONSUL LAGOS
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0181
    INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
    RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA 9834
    RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH AFB UK
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
    RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
    RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
    RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
    RUEWMFD/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 LAGOS 000376

    SIPDIS

    STATE FOR AF/W, INR/AA
    STATE PASS NSC FOR BOBBY PITTMAN

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2016
    TAGS: PGOV PREL PM KDEM NI
    SUBJECT: NIGERIA: AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH GOVERNORS FORUM
    LEADER SARAKI ON YAR'ADUA'S HEALTH, CABINET RESHUFFLE, AND
    EX-GOVERNOR IBORI

    REF: A. ABUJA 1898
         ¶B. ABUJA 1595

    Classified By: AMBASSADOR ROBIN R. SANDERS Reasons 1.4 (B,D)

    ¶1. (C) Summary: During Ambassador,s first trip to Kwara
    State in western Nigeria, she had an opportunity to have
    several meetings with Kwara State Governor and head of the
    powerful Governor,s Forum (GF), Bukola Saraki September
    21-22.  He met with the Ambassador just after finishing a
    3-hour session with Yar,Adua, where he said they were
    "finishing up touches on personalities in the next cabinet."
    In the hour long one-on-one with Ambassador, Saraki reviewed
    the current state of play in Nigerian Northern and national
    politics, President Yar,Adua,s health issues and the impact
    on the atmosphere in Nigeria, the upcoming cabinet reshuffle
    and Niger Delta issues, and made comments about some of the
    key people around the President such as National Security
    Advisor Muktar, and (in response to the Ambassador,s
    questions) about the President,s Aide de Camp (ADC).  Saraki
    is in his mid-forties, a medical doctor, dynamic, and hails
    from a strong, powerful family, rumored to have made their
    wealth in oil, which has controlled Kwara State off and on
    for generations. Under his leadership, the GF, in combination
    with other northern governors including the Governors of
    Kaduna, Borno, Kano (although not from the ruling PDP), and
    Katsina, have become the new power entity within the North.

    ¶2. (C) Saraki and these younger Northern governors believe
    that they have demonstrated their prowess over the last eight
    months as they have gotten President Yar,Adua to respond to
    many of their requests, including, they believe, controlling
    the PDP and blocking both former Presidents Obasanjo and
    Babingida from seating their candidates as PDP chairmen. On
    the southern side, in addition to the Governor of Lagos,
    Niger Delta Governors of Rivers and Bayelsa States also have
    come into their own, influencing issues for their region by
    virtue of their access to President Yar,Adua. Saraki noted
    in the meeting that most governors like Yar,Adua "because he
    does not meddle in their State affairs, quite different from
    former President Obasanjo."  In addition to this background,
    Saraki made comments on the state of play in politics, the
    upcoming cabinet reshuffle, personalities around Yar,Adua,
    and ex-Delta governor James Ibori as he relates to the EFCC
    and the U.S. position on the EFCC.

    Ibori, the EFCC, and U.S.
    -------------------------

    ¶3. (C) Governor Saraki began our discussion with the words
    "let's be frank," as he opened up about the sentiments of the
    President and his inner circle (which includes Saraki) on the
    U.S. posture on the EFCC.  He noted that overall neither the
    President nor any of his key advisors are too keen on how the
    U.S. has approached this issue, underscoring that we needed
    to get the bilateral relationship back on track. He added
    that the main challenge is "not so much the USG concerns
    about the EFCC and it doing better -- we  get that and
    appreciate that -- but the way that we were talked to, as
    well as the closing down any dialogue with EFCC chairwoman
    and not giving her a chance, is what bothers us.  "The Brits
    feel like you do on the EFCC and wanting to see results on
    key cases, but they have gone about it in a much better
    manner so that we are willing to listen to them." Ambassador
    pushed back, pointing out that without progress on cases such
    as that of ex-governor Ibori, there is probably not any
    likelihood that our posture would change, but that she would
    dialogue with him and others to continue to push for these
    prosecutions to be done in a transparent manner, with action
    that would bring Ibori and his ilk to justice.

    ¶4. (C) The Ambassador then asked Saraki point blank what
    Ibori had on the President that prevents him from being more
    forceful on seeing this through.  Saraki said because we have
    had good chats over the last several months that he would be
    straightforward.  He stated that there is no way that
    Yar,Adua would ever "pick up the phone to try to influence
    the EFCC or Chairwoman Waziri." Despite what the
    international community might think, Yar'Adua is committed to
    the rule of law, but Ibori contributed financially in a big
    way to his campaign -- everyone knows this.  So the President
    is not in a political position to ban Ibori from some limited
    access to him.  The Ibori situation is a problem for the
    President and he knows it and is doing his best to convince
    Ibori to hand himself over to the British authorities so that
    the country can move on. "We are all trying to convince Ibori
    that this is the best option for the country and the
    President, but Ibori is not on board yet to do this," he
    concluded. "Meanwhile, he added, the USG and the rest of the
    international community need to appreciate that Yar'Adua is
    not going to do anything to interfere with the EFCC
    investigation of Ibori, of any of the other ex-governors, or
    of anyone else who is brought before the EFCC.

    ¶5. (C) On Waziri, Saraki claimed that going by her resume
    alone she is highly qualified for the job, personally
    motivated to see these big cases through, and thus should be
    given a chance, instead of cutting the legs out from under
    her.  A dialogue should be maintained even if the USG holds
    off on its training, he emphasized. "Give her six months do
    her job before you condemn her."  Waziri now feels she has an
    EFCC team which is loyal to her and that is not trying to
    undercut her. She has stated that, with this new team, she
    hopes to be able to close some of these big cases soon.
    Ambassador stated that it was unlikely that dialogue could
    continue with Waziri, but wanted to encourage it with others
    in the government on this and other issues. Saraki again
    noted the concern the Nigerian leadership with the tone and
    style (threats, etc.) that were reflected in the recent U.S.
    demarche (Ref B.)

    Niger Delta Next Steps
    ----------------------

    ¶6. (C) Ambassador decided to move on and take the Ibori issue
    one step further by asking Saraki if the rumors that the
    government was considering making Ibori the Minister of the
    new Niger Delta Ministry were true.  Saraki laughed, stating
    that the international community has to accept that hyperbole
    is the foundation of the Nigerian press, including blogs like
    Sahara Reporters.  Given that he had just left Yar'Adua's
    three hour meeting on choices for the next cabinet, Saraki
    said that "picking a good candidate for the Niger Delta
    Ministry was what was holding up progress on announcing the
    new Ministers."  The Kwara Governor said that he and others
    working on the new cabinet list had provided the President
    with several criteria for this position: no previous
    involvement in politics, no ex- or current governor; and no
    EFCC skeletons.  "What we are looking for is a technocrat
    from the region, who has credibility among regional leaders
    -- this has not been easy to find," Saraki said. (Note: The
    Saturday, September 20 Vanguard reported that the President
    "was believed" to have picked Albert Okumagba, an ethnic
    Urhobo who is Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of BGL
    Limited, an investment banking firm.  Okumagba, like several
    others whose names are being discussed, appears to meet the
    criteria Saraki describes above.  End Note)

    ¶7. (C)  On other Niger Delta issues, Saraki informed the
    Ambassador that an informal agreement had been reached with
    the factional Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger
    Delta People (MEND) to announce a ceasefire until such time
    that all parties to the conflict could find a good candidate
    for the Niger Delta Ministry.  (Note: Two days after the
    Ambassador-Saraki meeting, the Nigerian press reported that
    MEND had agreed to a temporary cease-fire with the goal of
    stemming the violence in River State in particular.  In
    addition Secretary to the Federation (SFG) Ahmed told
    Ambassador September 15 that he would be meeting with Tom
    Polo's people and others to try to find a way to work out a
    deal so that things could  move forward.  End Note.)
    Ambassador mentioned that the United States and the UK had
    worked jointly together on a paper that could support GON
    efforts and that we had delivered an operational assistance
    non-paper to the President back in July. To date, she added,
    we have not gotten a response to the July demarche, while the
    US-UK paper had been delivered to the Foreign Minister and
    the Secretary of the Federal Government.  Right now, Saraki
    said, people are still "smarting" over the U.S. behavior on
    the EFCC, so responses to overtures by the U.S. on the Niger
    Delta are probably lukewarm, Saraki said. "If we make a step
    the U.S. doesn't like on the Niger Delta are you going to
    pull your support, as you did on the EFCC?", he asked.
    Ambassador emphasized that the offers to assist on the Niger
    Delta are genuine.

    Powerbrokers Around the President
    ---------------------------------

    ¶8. (C) Ambassador took further advantage of the frank
    dialogue to ask who, beside Saraki, did the President rely
    upon?  Saraki replied that his loyalty and assistance to the
    President came as a result of his ability to use his GF
    position to block Obasanjo and Babingida's candidate at the
    last PDP convention, held in April 2008. Since then, Yar'Adua
    has continually included him in high level conversations
    about federal government issues, such as the new cabinet
    line-up.  The Kwara State Governor then added the following
    other governors to the list of people who can and do have
    influence with and access to Yar'Adua, noting that the single
    most powerful influence is his wife, Turai.  On the list of
    influential govenors, in Saraki's view, are the Katsina,
    Rivers, Kano, and Kaduna governors. Others include SFG Ahmed
    and Economic Advisor Yakubu. Saraki then asked what the
    Ambassador thought about National Security Advisor Muktar, as
    he did not seem to be doing his job of coordinating the
    government well. Ambassador demurred, saying that she
    understood Muktar had just had heart surgery and that she had
    not seen him in awhile. The Kwara Governor went on to add
    that he felt that Muktar had been ineffective in the
    position, as so many things requiring coordination just
    seemed to fall through the cracks.  On the Muktar heart
    surgery, Saraki added that he seemed to be recovering well
    and was back on the job.  Ambassador then asked about the
    President's Aide de Camp (ADC), wondering whether he was
    considered part of Yar'Adua's inner circle.  Saraki explained
    that the "jury was out on the ADC," given his ties in the
    past as an Obasanjo loyalist.  "Right now those of us close
    to the President are carefully watching the ADC," he
    explained. (Note: Ambassador's encounters with the ADC have
    always left the impression that he is not working in the best
    interest of  the current government. He was promoted to
    colonel under Yar'Adua in early 2008, but also worked in the
    Villa under Obasanjo.  So comments that he is loyal to
    Obasanjo are not surprising. End Note.)

    Cabinet Reshuffle, Timing
    -------------------------

    ¶9. (C) Saraki told Ambassador that the timing of the cabinet
    reshuffle was imminent. He added in meeting with President
    Yar'Adua earlier September 21 that those in attendance agreed
    that at the upcoming Federal Executive Committee meeting
    (Nigeria's cabinet meeting) that the Ministers who were being
    let go would be announced. (Note: We are assuming that
    Foreign Minister Maduekwe will be staying on as he is
    currently representing the GON and Yar'Adua at the UNGA).
    However, he did not think that the names of all the new
    ministers would be ready at the same time, so those names
    will probably be announced later. The Kwara Governor said
    that the GON could announce Ministers who are fired after the
    September 24 or October 1 FEC meeting.

    Yar'Adua's Health and the Supreme Court
    ---------------------------------------

    ¶10.   (C) In wrapping up the meeting, the Ambassador asked
    about the state of President Yar'Adua's health and the
    pending Supreme Court decision.  Saraki responded by saying
    "I a medical doctor so I am not going to soft peddle the
    issue; the President has serious health problems."  However,
    he added, "despite his kidney problems, I believe he can
    manage his illness with the right care and regular check-ups.
    This is something the country is going to have to
    understand." The Kwara Governor noted as an example that in
    the three hour session with Yar'Adua on the upcoming cabinet,
    the latter was articulate and had command of the issues.  "He
    is not Obasanjo and not gregarious, but he is able to do the
    job," Saraki stated. On the Supreme Court ruling, the
    Ambassador reminded Saraki that when they last met in July
    2008 he was confident that Yar'Adua would prevail in the high
    court's decision. She was curious given the recent health
    scare if he felt the same today.  The Governor said he did
    not know, but thought the odds were more in the 50-50 range,
    and that the health issue did raise an additional specter of
    concern on the national psyche.  He noted, however, that he
    did not expect the Supreme Court to render a decision until
    probably sometime in January or February 2009.  Press reports
    showed on September 23 that the Supreme Court would begin
    hearing appeals testimony starting September 25.

    ¶11. (C) Comment:  All in all Saraki seems to be becoming more
    of a key player on the national level and certainly has the
    ear of Yar'Adua.  He was a lot less optimistic about how the
    Supreme Court would rule than he had been in his previous
    meetings with the Ambassador as health issues of Yar'Adua are
    more paramount on the minds of Nigerians.  Succession
    scenarios on Nigeria's future are playing out with elites
    both in the North and South with bets being taken over
    whether the Northern group would allow VP Jonathan to assume
    a transitional leadership role at all if Yar'Adua became
    incapacitated.  The new cabinet which is scheduled to be
    announced soon is also supposed to reflect more of Yar'Adua's
    small inner circle of friends as he seeks to consolidate his
    power more now than he has in the past, and better control
    his cabinet.  This could be a good thing or bad, depending on
    whether  the wall on access to Yar'Adua gets higher.  It is
    already difficult to get in to see him.  With the decision of
    the Supreme Court weighing heavily on Yar'Adua  coupled with
    trying to manage the country's nervousness over his health,
    he probably sees Saraki's leadership in the Governors' Forum
    as a way to help him within the PDP,  particularly as looming
    health questions continue to arise.

    ¶12. Ambassador drafted this cable while at CG Lagos.
    BLAIR

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