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### Viewing cable 05WELLINGTON658, NEW ZEALAND FIRST: A PARTY OF THE OLD STILL MAY

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05WELLINGTON658 | 2005-08-29 03:28 | 2011-04-28 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN | Embassy Wellington

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 WELLINGTON 000658

    SIPDIS

    NOFORN

    STATE FOR EAP/ANP, EAP/RSP, EAP/EP, INR/EAP
    NSC FOR VICTOR CHA AND MICHAEL GREEN
    SECDEF FOR OSD/ISA LIZ PHU
    PACOM FOR J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/2015
    TAGS: PREL PGOV NZ
    SUBJECT: NEW ZEALAND FIRST: A PARTY OF THE OLD STILL MAY
    CHARM

    Classified By: Acting DCM Katherine B. Hadda,
    for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

    ¶1. (C) Summary:  As New Zealand gears up for September 17
    general elections, neither Labour nor National are likely to
    get enough votes to win a majority outright.  Of all New
    Zealand's small parties, only two, the New Zealand First
    party and the Green Party, have enough current support to win
    more than 5% of the vote.  Either could play the role of
    "kingmaker" by giving one of the two major parties enough
    Parliamentary seats to govern.
    While NZ First has not said which party it would prefer to
    back, it is widely assumed that National is the more likely
    partner.  When the parties shared rule in the 1990s their
    government fell apart, however.

    ¶2.  (C/NOFORN) Led by the unpredictable and charismatic
    Winston Peters, New Zealand First paints itself as the party
    that will preserve New Zealand's traditional way of life.
    The party is populist, anti-immigration, and against special
    rights for minority groups, although in recent weeks it has
    toned down its rhetoric somewhat in response to flagging
    support in the polls.  The United States could face
    difficulties in dealing with any coalition government
    beholden to NZ First: the party wants to restrict foreign
    investment and supports New Zealand's anti-nuclear policy
    (though would back a referendum to change it).  Then again,
    Peters is pragmatic: he tends to back any policy that he sees
    as raising his public profile, and he was considered a steady
    hand as Finance Minister in the '90s. The party also favors a
    strong defense establishment.  End Summary.

    -----------------
    Who Are NZ First?
    -----------------

    ¶3.  (SBU) New Zealand First party leader Winston Peters may
    be dabbling in irony when he labels the major Labour and
    National Parties as the "two tired old parties" competing for
    the country,s September 17 elections.  Peters himself could
    be tagged as the election,s graybeard: At age 60, he is the
    second-oldest candidate for prime minister and is one of
    Parliament,s longest tenured members, serving 24 years. His
    party,s motto "placing New Zealand and New Zealanders first"
    has been marched out in slightly different forms for every
    campaign since Peters split from National and formed NZ First
    in 1993.

    ¶4.  (C) The party,s core support rests with elderly voters,
    and its five policy priorities appeal to an older
    constituency that seeks personal security and is cheered by
    nostalgic references to a largely bygone New Zealand.  Down
    in the polls with three weeks to go (support has plummeted
    from about 12% to 5% in the last weeks), NZ First stands in
    familiar territory.  At this point in previous campaigns,
    Peters uncorked his personal charm and laid out his
    appealing, if shopworn, populist messages, proving on
    election night that pollsters had judged his party far too
    pessimistically.  His tireless, tried-and-true campaign
    methods may pull off another hurrah -- possibly not Peters,
    last -- making NZ First a potential kingmaker in a coalition
    with either Labour or, more likely, National.

    -------------------
    Grey First policies
    -------------------

    ¶5. (SBU) The public sees NZ First as a party for older New
    Zealanders.  In the 2002 election, 52 percent of NZ First
    voters were over 50.  In an August poll, its voting-age
    supporters were three times more likely to be over 55 (40.9
    percent) than under 24 (13.6 percent).  The party,s promises
    to battle crime, limit immigration, constrain privatized
    asset sells to foreign investors and manage race relations
    resonate most strongly with seniors.  This year, it has added
    a senior-specific campaign pledge: to raise the rate of
    social welfare support for the elderly.  As a result, NZ
    First has won the not-insignificant support of Grey Power, a
    100,000-member political group for age 50-plus New Zealanders
    that is a key component of NZ First's campaign success.

    --------------------------------------
    Policies as protection for NZ identity
    --------------------------------------

    ¶6. (C) NZ First policies generally seek to protect and
    preserve a distinct New Zealand identity.  Foremost among
    them, NZ First pitches an anti-immigrant message, with Peters
    often saying that New Zealanders have "the right to stop
    being swamped by a flood of immigrants."  Peters recently
    said that New Zealand is replacing its first-world emigrants
    of the postwar period with third-world workers and
    threatening the Kiwi way of life.  NZ First calls for a
    drastic reduction in immigrants, especially refugees.  Peters
    often has used the mechanism of parliamentary privilege to
    name immigrants he thinks pose threats to national security,
    without supporting evidence or disclosure of his sources.

    ¶7. (SBU) Peters, who inherited Maori lineage from his father
    and once was ticketed as the likeliest prospect to become the
    country,s first Maori prime minister, is labeled by some
    critics as being Maori in name only. He first came to
    national prominence in the mid-1980s by uncovering scandal in
    the government,s Maori loan programs.  He has since attacked
    what he calls the "bro-racracy" of Maori that seeks large
    government payouts to settle treaty claims, and he has also
    criticized some  tribe Maori leaders as nepotistic and
    corrupt. However, ever since National Party leader Don
    Brash's January 2004 Orewa speech stole much of the thunder
    on this issue, NZ First has struggled to further distinguish
    its race policy.  For example, the party still promotes Maori
    language and culture as a vital part of New Zealand,s
    national identity.

    ---------------------------------------------
    Party,s strengths, vulnerabilities are Peters
    ---------------------------------------------

    ¶8. (C) Arguably the most charismatic figure in Parliament,
    Peters propels the party,s populist policy.  Coupled with
    his long experience in Parliament, Peters is well positioned
    to deliver polling gains in the remaining weeks of the
    election campaign.  Four weeks out from the 2002 elections,
    NZ First polled between 4 and 5 percent.  Largely on Peters,
    charisma, it received 10.4 percent of the party vote.  A
    similar performance remains possible this campaign,
    especially as older voters appear to be disengaged from the
    two major parties and other minor parties.

    ¶9. (C) Peters, charisma, the party,s populist platform and
    its support among the elderly notwithstanding, NZ First,s
    message and its leader have worn thin on many New Zealanders
    who may be sympathetic to its views but not convinced of its
    effectiveness.  Other parties, especially National and ACT,
    have cannibalized the party,s core policy messages
    (anti-corruption, anti-immigration and race relations),
    leaving the party with little new or different on offer.

    ------------------------------------------
    Anti-First: issues of coalition government
    ------------------------------------------

    ¶10. (C) As in the last three elections, Peters is promoting
    NZ First as a potential coalition "king-" or "queen-maker,"
    suggesting that he could help Labour or National reach a
    Parliamentary majority.   However, Labour leader Helen Clark
    and National,s Brash have both distanced themselves from
    Peters, who has said he would not commit to a coalition plan
    before the election.  National likely worries voters will
    remember how after the 1996 election, it took 10 weeks for
    National and NZ First to form a coalition, which then
    essentially fell apart in 1998.  Labour,s Clark stands
    further apart from Peters, political philosophy and, since
    the Green and Progressive Parties already have agreed to back
    a Labour coalition, needs him less. Given Peters, reputation
    as a political lone wolf, some commentators have suggested a
    more casual collaboration with NZ First would better serve
    Labour or National.  This might the form of an agreement by
    NZ First to work with a minority government on an
    issue-by-issue basis, and this arrangement, some insiders
    believe, would be Peters, preference.

    ¶11. (C) Another factor complicating NZ First,s position is
    that NZ First,s rank-and-file increasingly are signaling
    that Labour would be their first choice for a coalition
    partner.  As a conservative in centrist clothing, Peters
    feels more at home with National, his former party, and
    without Peters, NZ First would likely go extinct.
    --------------------------------------------- -
    New Zealand "First": implications for the U.S.
    --------------------------------------------- -

    ¶12. (C) Consistent with its overall strategy to protect the
    national identity, NZ First supports New Zealand,s
    anti-nuclear policy.  However, the Party's MPs have told us
    they could support a public referendum concerning the policy.
     NZ First remains skeptical of free trade agreements,
    especially arrangements with developing nations.  It believes
    deals with "low-wage economies," such as the one being
    negotiated with China, threaten the New Zealand way of life,
    although it favors increasing New Zealand,s association with
    the South Pacific.

    ¶13. (C/NOFORN) On the whole, a coalition government obliged
    to draw on NZ First policies would be neutral to the United
    States.  However, some policies, notably Peters, call for
    expanded intelligence sharing within Parliament and his
    party,s policy to cap foreign ownership of key
    infrastructure to 24.9 percent, might be a problem for us. It
    is rumored that National might tap Peters as Foreign Minister
    in a coalition government, which would make this prospect
    less than academic.  Then again, Peters is basically
    pragmatic.  We believe he would support any policy that makes
    him look good.

    -----------------------------------------
    Winston First: leader as person and party
    -----------------------------------------

    ¶14. (SBU) Winston Raymond Peters, 60, studied history,
    politics and law at Auckland University before working as a
    teacher and a lawyer.  In 1978, age 33, he entered Parliament
    as a National Party member.  After losing in 1981, he
    returned to Parliament in 1984 by winning in Tauranga, a seat
    that he continues to hold.  He resigned from the National
    Party in 1993 over policy differences, especially those
    involving privatization of state infrastructure.  He founded
    NZ First that same year, just before the general election.

    ¶15. (SBU) In the 1996 election, NZ First captured 17 seats,
    six of which were electorate seats (including five dedicated
    to Maori), demonstrating it had a solid party foundation.  It
    joined in coalition with National, making Peters deputy prime
    minister and Treasurer.  However, old tensions reappeared
    between Peters and National leadership, resulting in Peters,
    sacking from cabinet.  A collapse in NZ First followed, with
    some members of Parliament breaking in favor of National.  In
    the party,s current incarnation, Peters has firmly
    established himself in opposition, where some say he performs
    best.

    ¶16. (C) Although Peters exercises autocratic control over the
    party, there are signs he may be losing touch with his home
    district in Tauranga.  A recent poll of the Tauranga
    electorate indicates their preferred party is National, with
    26 percent; Labour, 18 percent; and, NZ First, 10 percent.
    However, extrapolating party vote to electorate seat outcome
    is tenuous.  In the 2002 election, Labour had 32 percent of
    the party vote while National and NZ First posted 22 percent
    each.  Peters decisively won the seat with 52 percent of the
    electorate vote.  The next closest contender, a prominent
    sitting Labour MP (Speaker Margaret Wilson), took 21 percent.
    Burnett

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