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### Viewing cable 09MANAGUA1041, NICARAGUANS RESPOND TO COURT RULING ON RE-ELECTION

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09MANAGUA1041 | 2009-10-22 21:23 | 2011-06-01 08:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Managua

Appears in these articles:
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758456.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758467.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758468.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758464.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4103/la-embusa-y-el-gabinete-de-ortega
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4104/d-rsquo-escoto-en-onu-ldquo-un-desafio-de-ortega-a-ee-uu-rdquo
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4102/estrada-y-la-ldquo-doble-cara-rdquo-ante-ee-uu
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3966/la-ldquo-injerencia-rdquo-de-ee-uu-en-el-2006
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-23/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2758764.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-23/Mundo/NotaPrincipal/Mundo2758753.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4041/millones-de-dolares-sin-control-y-a-discrecion
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4040/la-ldquo-injerencia-rdquo-de-venezuela-en-2006
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4047/rodrigo-barreto-enviado-de-ldquo-vacaciones-rdquo
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2757239.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/NotaPrincipal/Mundo2746658.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2757244.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2746673.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3991/dra-yadira-centeno-desmiente-cable-diplomatico-eeuu
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3968/pellas-pronostico-a-eeuu-victoria-de-ortega-en-2006
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3967/barreto-era-ldquo-fuente-confiable-rdquo-para-eeuu

`

    VZCZCXRO7632
    PP RUEHLMC
    DE RUEHMU #1041/01 2952123
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 222123Z OCT 09
    FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4678
    INFO RUEHMU/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS PRIORITY
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RUMIAAA/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY
    RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHDC PRIORITY
    RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 001041

    SIPDIS

    STATE FOR WHA/CEN, DRL
    STATE PASS USAID

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2019
    TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM NU
    SUBJECT: NICARAGUANS RESPOND TO COURT RULING ON RE-ELECTION

    REF: MANAGUA 1035

    Classified By: Ambassador Robert J. Callahan, reasons 1.4(b&d)

    ¶1.  (C) Summary: After the Supreme Court's (CSJ) ruling
    allowing Presdient Daniel Ortega's re-election, civil society
    across the board has stated clearly its opposition to the
    decision.  They have labeled the decision as illegal and a
    major step backward for Nicaragua's democracy.  While NGOs
    continue to put out statements and communiques denouncing the
    ruling, youth have taken to the street in small acts of
    protest.  Meanwhile, Ortega and his FSLN stalwarts publicly
    defend the decision and "the people's right to chose their
    leaders."  The FSLN has also moved preemptively in occupying
    public spaces to intimidate and prevent any large public
    opposition to Ortega and the court's ruling.  End Summary.

    -----------------------------------------
    NGOs Call for Public to Resist, Youth Act
    -----------------------------------------

    ¶2.  (SBU) In the days following the October 19 CSJ ruling
    (reftel), NGOs and other non-political actors have denounced
    the court's decision in allowing Ortega's re-election.  The
    day following the ruling Movimiento por Nicaragua, the
    Autonomous Women's Movement, and other NGOs issued a joint
    statement describing the ruling as an illegitimate mechanism
    to allow Ortega's re-election and rejecting "the birth of a
    dictatorship in Nicaragua."  They also called on Nicaraguans
    to peacefully resist the dictatorship and as of now not to
    recognize any national election that includes Ortega as a
    candidate.  Another NGO, Hagamos Democracia, characterized
    the ruling as "aberrant and opportunistic, which violates the
    Constitution."  It then warns that the CSJ's decision marks
    "regression in the democratic process that could lead to
    violence."  Similar statements were repeated from a variety
    of NGOs and more are expected.

    ¶3.  (SBU) Other non-political actors have expressed
    themselves in similar terms.  Bishop Juan Abelardo Mata, Vice
    President of Nicaragua's Conference of Bishops, stated that
    while he was not an attorney, "the sad truth was that those
    who govern use the Constitution as toilet paper."  The two
    principal private sector entities also denounced the court's
    decision.  In its statement, the American Chamber of Commerce
    in Nicaragua (AmCham) denounced the court for acting "against
    all judicial logic" and rejected the "illegal and
    illegitimate" ruling of the magistrates who "violated
    (Nicaragua's) constitutional order."  It said actions like
    these do nothing but scare off foreign investment and inhibit
    the possibilities of development.  The Higher Council of the
    Private Sector (COSEP) rejected that the court, "through a
    ruling, reformed the constitution , which is solely the
    jurisdiction of the National Assembly or a constituent
    assembly ... this decision, is therefore, a violation of the
    constitution and the rule of law."

    ¶4.  (C) While organized groups of civil society publicly
    denounced the CSJ's ruling and called for Nicaraguans to
    unite and resist Ortega's dictatorial tendencies, several
    youth groups have begun to act out against the governing FSLN
    and the state institutions that the party controls.  One
    group carried a toilet in front of the Supreme Electoral
    Council (CSE) and simulated a CSE magistrate defecating on
    Nicaragua; the group held posters that read "Magistrates:
    treason has a high price."  Another group awaited the arrival
    of CSJ magistrate Francisco Rosales in front of a television
    station; upon Rosales' arrival the university group hurled
    eggs at the magistrate.  Yet another group sprayed graffiti
    in Managua calling for Nicaraguans to stand-up to Ortega and
    holding posters that read, "after Mel goes Ortega" (in
    reference to the situation in Honduras).

    ----------------------------------------
    FSLN Defends Decision - "Ortega in 2011"
    ----------------------------------------

    ¶5.  (SBU) While civil society groups denounce the court's
    decision as illegal and youth groups begin to take small
    steps to demonstrate their frustration, Ortega and his

    MANAGUA 00001041  002 OF 002

    governing FSLN are aggressively defending the court's
    decision and have preemptively occupied key public spaces to
    forestall opposition demonstrations.  In an October 20 public
    speech, Ortega belittled the opposition to the court's
    decision and stated that the ruling "cannot be appealed ...
    it is written in stone."  Other FSLN leadership have been
    making the rounds carrying the same message.  CSJ Vice
    President Rafael Solis (a close confident of Ortega and one
    of six judges who voted for the re-election), told media
    "this issue is closed.  They (the opposition) have to accept
    that Daniel Ortega will be a candidate in 2011."  In another
    statement, Solis apparently recognized that his party does
    not represent (nor govern) for all Nicaraguans by stating
    "38% of the population is happy and the rest of the people
    are saying terrible things of us" (in allusion to the 38% of
    the population who voted for Ortega in the 2006 presidential
    election).

    ¶6.  (SBU) Another trusted Ortega ally also has backed
    publicly the court's decision and called people to the
    streets.  As he has in the past, National Assembly Deputy
    Gustavo Porras (FSLN) called the governing party's supporters
    to occupy Managua's rotundas to "support the court's
    decision" because the streets "belong to us."  As a result,
    on October 20 FSLN supporters moved preemptively to occupy
    public space and prevent the opposition from mounting in
    public protests or marches.  (Note: In the past, the FSLN has
    reacted violently to public demonstrations in opposition to
    the government.)  Other government officials also have stated
    that they will take to the streets.  Minister of Education
    Miguel de Castilla told media that he and public school
    teachers would go to the streets to publicly support the
    court's ruling and Ortega's re-election.

    ¶7.  (C) Finally, it appears that Ortega also coordinated some
    international support for the court's ruling to further
    "legitimize" the decision.  Immediately following the court's
    ruling on October 19, the Venezuelan-led Bolivarian Alliance
    for the People of our America (ALBA) issued a communique
    acknowledging the CSJ action, ratifying ALBA's support for
    the democratic institutions of Nicaragua, and applauding the
    Nicaraguan people for the continual consolidation of its
    democratic system.

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    Comment
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    ¶8.  (C) As expected, civil society as a whole has rejected
    the court's ruling on Ortega's re-election, calling the
    decision illegal, a blow to Nicaragua's constitutional order,
    and a step backward for Nicaraguan democracy.  While NGOs and
    other organized groups take time to think through what
    actions they will take, small groups of youth have begun to
    demonstrate their frustration with the FSLN and the state
    institutions they control.  How these civil society groups
    will combine with the political opposition to the court's
    ruling and Ortega remains to be seen.  (Note: Political
    parties' opposition to the court's ruling will be reported
    septel.)  However, the fact that Ortega and his FSLN
    immediately defended the decision and have taken to the
    streets increases the risk that events in Nicaragua could
    turn violent.
    CALLAHAN

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