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### Viewing cable 06MANAGUA1220, MARTINEZ CUENCA: ORTEGA MUST GO -- QUESTION IS HOW

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06MANAGUA1220 | 2006-06-06 22:32 | 2011-06-01 08:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Managua

Appears in these articles:
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758456.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758467.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758468.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758464.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4103/la-embusa-y-el-gabinete-de-ortega
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4104/d-rsquo-escoto-en-onu-ldquo-un-desafio-de-ortega-a-ee-uu-rdquo
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4102/estrada-y-la-ldquo-doble-cara-rdquo-ante-ee-uu
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3966/la-ldquo-injerencia-rdquo-de-ee-uu-en-el-2006
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-23/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2758764.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-23/Mundo/NotaPrincipal/Mundo2758753.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4041/millones-de-dolares-sin-control-y-a-discrecion
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4040/la-ldquo-injerencia-rdquo-de-venezuela-en-2006
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4047/rodrigo-barreto-enviado-de-ldquo-vacaciones-rdquo
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2757239.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/NotaPrincipal/Mundo2746658.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2757244.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2746673.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3991/dra-yadira-centeno-desmiente-cable-diplomatico-eeuu
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3968/pellas-pronostico-a-eeuu-victoria-de-ortega-en-2006
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3967/barreto-era-ldquo-fuente-confiable-rdquo-para-eeuu

`

    VZCZCXYZ0000
    PP RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHMU #1220/01 1572232
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 062232Z JUN 06
    FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6500
    INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0702
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 001220

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN TPIERCE

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/06/2016
    TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM NU
    SUBJECT: MARTINEZ CUENCA: ORTEGA MUST GO -- QUESTION IS HOW
    AND WHEN

    REF: MANAGUA 1210

    Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D).

    ¶1.  (C) Alejandro Martinez Cuenca shared with Ambassador,
    DCM, and polcouns on June 6 his decision to continue his
    efforts to reform the Sandinista party (FSLN) and to
    challenge the FSLN "messianic" caudillo Daniel Ortega from
    within the party.  According to Martinez Cuenca, Ortega has
    deluded himself, most of the FSLN, and the media into
    believing that he is the party and the party is Ortega,
    thereby blocking any possible party reform.  He warned that
    Ortega enjoys the backing of much of the Catholic Church
    leadership, although not Archbishop Brenes' -- not only
    because of Cardinal Obando y Bravo's open endorsement -- but
    also due to the material support FSLN mayors have provided
    their local Catholic parishes.  Additionally, elaborated
    Martinez Cuenca, Ortega is banking on FSLN control of the
    Supreme Electoral Commission (CSE), high voter abstention
    among Nicaragua's majority anti-Ortega population,
    "palatable" Liberal dissident running mate Jaime Morales
    Carazo, Nicaragua's fractured Right, and the disciplined
    Sandinista vote.

    ¶2.  (C) Martinez Cuenca, who was bounced from the FSLN's May
    28 Convention (for daring to challenge Ortega's candidacy and
    calling for primaries), told us that unless Ortega shows true
    signs of reform, which is highly unlikely, he will confront
    Ortega's candidacy again before October 8, when the CSE must
    send the November 5 ballots to print and parties cannot make
    further changes.  Martinez Cuenca reasoned that if by then
    Ortega is faring poorly in the polls, or if Ortega loses the
    election on the first round, the FSLN may press Ortega to
    withdraw his candidacy and then select him or another
    candidate to replace Ortega.  He explained that according to
    Nicaraguan law, in the event a presidential or vice
    presidential candidate resigns, the party may appoint a
    replacement.  (NOTE: According to Nicaragua's electoral law,
    in the case of the resignation of a presidential or
    vice-presidential candidate during the electoral process, the
    political party/alliance will choose a replacement.  The same
    process applies in
    the event of a presidential or vice-presidential candidate's
    resignation after the election and before a runoff.  END
    NOTE.)

    ¶3.  (C) Martinez Cuenca acknowledged that Ortega continues to
    enjoy popularity among Sandinistas, in part because he has
    been able to control tensions among competing streams in the
    party and thereby limit their "belligerent" inclinations.
    Nonetheless, he claimed that discontent is growing among
    Sandinista rank and file, who are disaffected with Ortega's
    non-democratic control of the party.  Martinez Cuenca
    ventured that the combined Sandinista support for him and
    Herty Lewites easily totals 11% of the traditionally
    Sandinista vote -- possibly enough to prevent Ortega from
    winning on the first round (he estimated that Lewites draws
    5% - 7% of the hard Sandinista vote, while he attracts an
    additional 4% - 6%).

    ¶4.  (C) Recounting how Lewites had offered him the vice
    presidency (Reftel), Martinez Cuenca explained that he had
    declined Lewites' offer because he believes he can achieve
    more by remaining in the FSLN -- and possibly replacing
    Ortega as the FSLN's candidate.  Further, Lewites is
    disadvantaged by his lack of political machinery required to
    campaign and to defend his vote at the polls.  Remarking that
    the risk of fraud is greatest at the polling station level
    (JRVs), Martinez Cuenca argued that party election monitors
    (fiscales) are crucial.  He ventured that without enough
    fiscales, Lewites and the other two new political contenders
    Eduardo Montealegre and Eden Pastora will be unable to defend
    their votes.

    COMMENT
    - - - -

    ¶5.  (C) We will explore further Martinez Cuenca's assertions
    that Ortega enjoys substantial Catholic Church backing.  In
    addition to Ortega's advantages of CSE support, partial
    Catholic Church endorsement (which could sway even some
    undecided voters to his favor), ample campaign funds, a
    palatable, Liberal dissident running mate, and divided
    competitors, he virtually controls PLC caudillo/convicted
    money launderer Arnoldo Aleman's freedom, or lack thereof.
    Some Embassy contacts claim that Aleman has already

    relinquished his party's bid for the presidency in exchange
    for a guaranteed number of Assembly seats for Aleman
    loyalists and his eventual freedom.  Martinez Cuenca's
    quixotic quest may not succeed, but even if he can whittle a
    few percentage points from Ortega on November 5, his efforts
    could help prevent an Ortega victory on the first round --
    and even many Danielistas agree that Ortega is unlikely to
    win a runoff.
    TRIVELLI

`