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### Viewing cable 06QUITO1434, ECUADOR READY FOR A FEMALE PRESIDENT?

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06QUITO1434 | 2006-06-12 16:55 | 2011-05-02 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Quito

`

    VZCZCXYZ0015
    OO RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHQT #1434/01 1631655
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    O 121655Z JUN 06
    FM AMEMBASSY QUITO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4576
    INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 5682
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 1783
    RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ JUN 9867
    RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 0648
    RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL PRIORITY 0632
    RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

` `

    UNCLAS QUITO 001434

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV KDEM SCUL EC
    SUBJECT: ECUADOR READY FOR A FEMALE PRESIDENT?

    ¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Women in Ecuador have made significant
    strides in politics in the last decade, with quotas helping
    to give women opportunities to win public office and
    contributing to a gradual change in societal attitudes.  The
    campaign of Cynthia Viteri, the only female presidential
    pre-candidate, will test how far women leaders have come
    here.  Opinion is divided over whether she will be helped by
    the fact of her gender, but all agree that being a woman
    candidate is not a negative.  Viteri's main weakness is her
    perceived dependence on unpopular (male) Social Christian
    Party (PSC) leaders.  If she wins, Viteri will be severely
    challenged, but no more so than her male counterparts.  End
    Summary.

    ¶2.  (U) PolOff discussed the presidential candidacy of
    Cynthia Viteri and the state of women in politics with
    various Ecuadorians, including FLACSO university political
    science professor Simon Pachano; former Congresswoman
    Alexandra Vela; former Ambassador to Washington, Minister of
    Trade, and 2002 presidential candidate Ivonne Baki; and
    former Vice President and President-for-a-day Rosalia
    Arteaga.  Ecuador was the first country in South America to
    give women the right to vote in 1929.  None of those
    interviewed thought there would be a strong negative reaction
    to a female presidency.  According to Baki, Ecuador had moved
    beyond defining candidates in terms of gender; instead
    Ecuadorians judged candidates on their capabilities.
    Currently 17 Congress members are women (17%), two of fifteen
    Cabinet ministers are women (Environment and Tourism) four of
    22 prefects are women (5.5%), and there is one female boss of
    a major political party.

    Quotas Provide Female Politicians A Boost
    -----------------------------------------

    ¶3.  (SBU) Women's political participation has been boosted by
    a 2000 law requiring that the percentage of women candidates
    gradually increase in each election until reaching 50 percent
    in 2008.  In the 2006 election, 45 percent of candidates must
    be women.  Ecuador has seen a sharp increase in the number of
    women in Congress from an average of five from 1990 through
    1997, to the current 17.  The law also requires parties to
    provide training to female candidates.  Vela noted that of
    the 17 women in Congress, few were visible or active, but
    noted that Congress has few individual stars and votes are
    generally dictated by party bosses.  Though originally
    skeptical, Baki credited quotas with gaining access for women
    into the political arena where they have been able to prove
    themselves.  Arteaga agreed that while she did not benefit
    from quotas during her political career, they have
    subsequently created more political space to women than
    otherwise would have been available.

    Previous Female Presidency Short-Lived
    --------------------------------------

    ¶4.  (U) If Viteri wins, she will not be the country's first
    female President.  In 1997, then-VP Rosalia Arteaga assumed
    the presidency for less than 24 hours after president Abdala
    Bucaram was declared mentally incompetent by Congress.
    Arteaga was subsequently replaced by president of Congress
    Fabian Alarcon.  Most agreed that Arteaga was passed over by
    Congress less for being a woman than for her association with
    discredited ex-president Bucaram.  In 1998, Arteaga ran for
    president, receiving just five percent of the vote.  Noting
    progress, Arteaga said that when she became Ecuador's first
    female Minister of Education in 1994, the public reacted with
    surprise and skepticism.  "Today, no one is surprised when
    women are named ministers."

    ¶5.  (U) Other women have run for the job of chief of state.
    Ivonne Baki, a former Ambassador to Washington ran for
    president in 2002, receiving only 1.7 percent of the vote.
    Baki takes consolation in the fact that she fared better in
    that election than an ex-President (Hurtado) after having
    been away from the Ecuadorian political scene while serving
    as Ambassador to Washington, and after just two months of
    campaigning.  After Gutierrez won that election, Baki served
    as his Minister of Trade.

    Viteri's Gender Unlikely To Hurt Campaign
    -----------------------------------------

    ¶6.  (U) Cynthia Viteri, 40, a two time Congresswoman and
    former television journalist, is currently the Social
    Christian Party's (PSC) pre-nominee for president.  Recently,
    Viteri stepped down as vice president of Congress in order to
    pursue her campaign.  In Congress, she gained visibility as
    acting president in April 2005, swearing in President Alfredo
    Palacio after Lucio Gutierrez' irregular ouster.  Viteri is
    currently the only female pre-candidate.  Being a woman could
    help her campaign; Pachano said it would help her to strike a
    separate identity from the very strong personalities of PSC
    party boss Leon Febres Cordero and popular Guayaquil mayor
    Jaime Nebot (PSC).  Her campaign uniform, all white, connotes
    purity and anti-corruption, and being a woman adds to this
    image.  Viteri's campaign is also publicizing her presence at
    the inauguration of Chilean President Michelle Bachelet.

    ¶7.  (SBU) Viteri's party has not held the presidency since
    1984-88, when Febres Cordero was president.  In Pachano's
    opinion, Viteri is the best candidate for the PSC as she
    symbolizes a certain renovation for the party with a more
    modern, less "Mafioso" image.  Nevertheless, the baggage of
    party boss Febres Cordero looms over Viteri.  Febres Cordero
    is nicknamed by many as the "owner of the country" and widely
    believed to have the power to topple presidents through his
    behind-the-scenes influence over various government
    institutions and the PSC's sway (with 25 seats, the largest
    bloc) in Congress.

    Could She "Be Her Own Man"?
    ---------------------------

    ¶8. (SBU) The perception that she would not be able to make
    her own decisions as President, and instead defer to party
    boss Febres Cordero, is one of Viteri's main weaknesses as a
    candidate.  Viteri has made an effort in press interviews to
    emphasize that she will be independent and make her own
    decisions, yet many question her ability to do so.  Pachano
    believes Viteri could effectively position herself as
    independent, but it will depend on whether PSC party leaders
    are willing to allow this.  Others do not believe Viteri
    could ever be seen as independent of Febres Cordero.  Vela
    noted Viteri would always be on her cell phone (presumably
    talking to Febres Cordero) before any vote in Congress.
    Viteri will be granted a certain amount of autonomy by Febres
    Cordero, but it is unlikely she will completely free herself
    of his strong influence.

    Personal History A Plus?
    ------------------------

    ¶9.  (U) Viteri has publicized the fact that she was an
    adolescent mother, working to support herself and her
    children.  Pachano thought Viteri's personal hard-luck story
    as an adolescent and working mother could help her.  Women's
    participation in the Ecuadorian work force has jumped from 27
    percent in 1990 to 42 percent in 2004 and women head of
    households has risen from 19 to 24 percent during the same
    period; more working women may relate to Viteri's
    experiences.  Pachano believes Viteri does hold an appeal to
    women voters and will capitalize on this with a female
    discourse.  Viteri publicly says she is "not a feminist, but
    is a woman" in an attempt to not alienate male voters.

    ¶10.  (U) Within a party considered to represent elite
    "oligarchy", Viteri's life story could help her separate
    herself from the elite associations of her party and Febres
    Cordero and even achieve a sort of "outsider" status.  Baki
    also thought that being a woman was one of Viteri's main
    campaign strengths.  Before entering politics, Viteri was a
    television journalist and is considered attractive.
    Ironically, Pachano believes Viteri's good looks could hurt
    her in that it may cause some voters to take her less
    seriously.  Others thought Viteri's experience with the media
    would help her campaign.

    Gender Unlikely To Affect Stability
    -----------------------------------

    ¶11.  (U) As a country that has seen three straight elected
    Presidents removed from office before completing their terms
    in recent years, most do not think a female presidency would
    be any weaker.  Pachano said that having a female president
    would not make Ecuador any more unstable, as Ecuador had
    structural instability.  Baki believes the strength of women
    politicians is their ability to work towards consensus.  Baki
    thinks that Viteri has already demonstrated the ability to
    achieve consensus within her own party.  All agree that in
    the turbulent world of Ecuadorian politics, Viteri, if
    elected will need to seek alliances and consensus in order to
    have a chance at finishing a four year term.

    Viteri Could Advance To Second Round
    ------------------------------------

    ¶12.  (U) Viteri is currently ranked second in early
    presidential polling, after former Vice President Leon Roldos
    and is nearly tied with Alvaro Noboa.  Most voters remain
    undecided, however.  Viteri's chances to make it to the
    second round runoff will depend in part on her choice of a
    running mate.  All agreed the best choice for Viteri would be
    a highlander, with Pachano suggesting someone in the center
    or center-left (to balance the center-right PSC).  By
    balancing the ticket, Viteri would boost her approval ratings
    and credibility in the Sierra.

    Comment
    -------

    ¶13.  (SBU) Congress is in desperate need of new and capable
    leaders, male and female.  The quota increases for women have
    helped bring new faces into the arena.  The viability of
    Viteri's presidential candidacy adds another real prospect
    for women's political advancement.  But victory is by no
    means certain, and the Viteri campaign is cautiously
    emphasizing unifying themes to attract cross-over voters,
    preferring not to be seen as an overly feminist campaign.
    Given the baggage that comes from her party, Viteri's gender
    can only help distinguish her from discredited male PSC
    leaders.
    JEWELL

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