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### Viewing cable 08OTTAWA1529, DUMPING DION (PART II)

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08OTTAWA1529 | 2008-12-08 20:25 | 2011-05-27 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Ottawa

`

    VZCZCXRO1244
    OO RUEHGA RUEHHA RUEHMT RUEHQU RUEHVC
    DE RUEHOT #1529/01 3432025
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 082025Z DEC 08
    FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8824
    INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

` `

    "C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 001529

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2018
    TAGS: PGOV CA
    SUBJECT: DUMPING DION (PART II)

    REF: A. OTTAWA 1348
         ¶B. OTTAWA 1518
         ¶C. OTTAWA 1516

    Classified By: PolMinCouns Scott Bellard, reason 1.4 (d)

    ¶1.  (C)  Summary.  Liberal Party leader Stephane Dion on
    December 8 indicated his intention to resign as leader of the
    Official Opposition.  Michael Ignatieff remains the front
    runner to replace him, but it appears that the selection
    process is still not a slam dunk.  Technically, the 77-member
    Liberal caucus of MPs does not have the authority to name an
    interim leader; only a separate 32-member National Executive
    can.  Rival Bob Rae is still fighting to have the National
    Executive, with possible support from the large patches of
    Canada that do not have Liberal MPs, insist on a
    one-member-one-vote selection process instead.  All this
    confusion is probably welcome news for the ruling
    Conservative Party.  One way or another, Canada's unexpected
    and unusual political drama will continue well into 2009.
    End Summary.

    ¶2.  (C)  The beating of wardrums clamoring for the immediate
    resignation of Official Opposition Liberal Party leader
    Stephane Dion picked up new rhythm with a December 6 op ed
    piece by Liberal former Deputy Prime Minister John Manley in
    ""The Globe and Mail.""  Dion was already a lame duck leader
    (ref a), having immediately after the disastrous Liberal
    showing in the October 14 federal election announced his
    intention formally to resign following an expected May 2,
    2009 vote at the national Liberal convention.  His inept
    performance during the political dramas during the week of
    December 1 (refs b and c) was apparently the final straw for
    Liberal loyalists.

    ¶3.  (U)  Dion made public his resignation letter on December
    8, insisting that his ""earlier departure does not change the
    facts of the situation that the Prime Minister has created in
    the last two weeks.""  The letter further made explicit that
    his resignation, however, would come into effect ""as soon as
    my successor is chosen.""  He reiterated support for the
    Liberal/New Democratic Party alliance as a ""solid basis to
    give Canada a government that reflects both the aspirations
    of the majority of Canadians and the support of the majority
    of Members of Parliament.""

    ¶4.  (C)  Unfortunately for the Liberals, the mechanics of
    choosing a new leader are more complex than many may have
    realized.  According to the Liberal Party constitution, a
    permanent leader can only emerge from a vote at a national
    convention of elected delegates.  Currently, the selection of
    delegates will be March 6-8, 2009, with the convention in
    Vancouver April 29-May 3.  The party constitution nonetheless
    stipulates that, should a leader resign or announce the
    intention to resign, only the National Executive -- a 32
    member board of whom the party leader and another caucus
    representative are the only MP representatives, while others
    are mostly senior officials of the national party and heads
    of the provincial Liberal parties -- can choose an interim
    leader.  The National Executive is obliged to meet within 27
    days of the resignation of the leader, and only to hold
    ""consultations"" with members of the caucus.

    ¶5.  (C)  Further complicating the situation is that
    leadership candidate Bob Rae has not bowed to the perceived
    momentum toward choosing Michael Ignatieff as interim party
    leader (whose position would logically then receive formal
    endorsement at the May 2 party convention vote).  (By
    contrast, would-be rival Dominic LeBlanc stepped aside on
    December 8 in favor of Ignatieff, ""the consensus choice."")
    Ignatieff supporters have claimed that they have at least 55
    members of the 77 person Liberal caucus supporting him.
    However, in an open letter/email message to Liberal members
    on December 7, Rae underscored that the caucus was
    unrepresentative of the party, with only ""literally two
    Liberals between North Bay, Ontario and Vancouver, BC"" and
    ""without representative from most of francophone Quebec
    outside of Montreal.""  He called instead for use of a
    ""one-member-one-vote democratic leadership selection"" --
    which other Canadian parties use but which the 2006 Liberal
    national party convention had explicitly rejected -- and
    claimed that the National Executive was ""working on"" such a
    plan to put in place immediately.  He urged members to weigh
    in with the National Executive and ""put a stop to this hasty,
    ill-considered idea"" of permitting a ""closed caucus vote"" to
    decide on an interim leader.

    ¶6. (C)  Comment:  The ruling party Conservatives may well be
    cackling with glee as they watch yet another unnecessary
    mis-step by Dion as well as the resurgent leadership
    rivalries -- and long-standing enmities -- within the Liberal
    Party.  Ignatieff's selection would likely be the death knell
    of the Liberal/NDP coalition, whereas Rae's selection would

    OTTAWA 00001529  002 OF 002

    keep this option alive -- and this is the additional factor
    that Liberal MPs and nationwide members are also probably
    weighing.  One way or another, Canada's unexpected and
    unusual political drama will continue well into 2009.

    Visit Canada,s Economy and Environment Forum at
    http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/can ada

    BREESE

`