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### Viewing cable 06MANAGUA2160, EDUARDO WILL BE THE NEXT PRESIDENT, UNLESS FSLN

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06MANAGUA2160 | 2006-09-29 22:44 | 2011-06-01 08:00 | SECRET | Embassy Managua

Appears in these articles:
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758456.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758467.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758468.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758464.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4103/la-embusa-y-el-gabinete-de-ortega
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4104/d-rsquo-escoto-en-onu-ldquo-un-desafio-de-ortega-a-ee-uu-rdquo
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4102/estrada-y-la-ldquo-doble-cara-rdquo-ante-ee-uu
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3966/la-ldquo-injerencia-rdquo-de-ee-uu-en-el-2006
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-23/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2758764.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-23/Mundo/NotaPrincipal/Mundo2758753.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4041/millones-de-dolares-sin-control-y-a-discrecion
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4040/la-ldquo-injerencia-rdquo-de-venezuela-en-2006
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4047/rodrigo-barreto-enviado-de-ldquo-vacaciones-rdquo
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2757239.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/NotaPrincipal/Mundo2746658.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2757244.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2746673.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3991/dra-yadira-centeno-desmiente-cable-diplomatico-eeuu
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3968/pellas-pronostico-a-eeuu-victoria-de-ortega-en-2006
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3967/barreto-era-ldquo-fuente-confiable-rdquo-para-eeuu

`

    VZCZCXYZ0002
    PP RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHMU #2160 2722244
    ZNY SSSSS ZZH
    P 292244Z SEP 06
    FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7735
    INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

` `

    S E C R E T MANAGUA 002160

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN, WHA/USOAS, NSC FOR DAN FISK

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/29/2026
    TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KDEM NU
    SUBJECT: "EDUARDO WILL BE THE NEXT PRESIDENT, UNLESS FSLN
    FRAUD PREVENTS IT," PREDICTS MONTEALEGRE,S CAMPAIGN ADVISER

    Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D).

    ¶1.  (C) Over lunch at the Presidency on 28 September, Eduardo
    Montealegre's campaign adviser Mario Elgarresta asserted to
    President Bolanos' chief of staff Nayo Somarriba, DCM, and
    polcouns that Ncaaguan Liberal Alliance (ALN) candidate
    Montealegre will be Nicaragua's next president -- unless
    Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) candidate Daniel
    Ortega steals the election on the first round.  Elgarresta
    listed the departments of Managua, Matagalpa, Leon, Granada,
    and Chinandega as the most vulnerable areas, as these are
    Nicaragua's most densely populated regions.

    ¶2.  (C) Elgarresta noted that ALN polls show that Montealegre
    is closing in on the FSLN candidate, placing approximately
    two to three points below frontrunner Ortega, while Liberal
    Constitutional Party (PLC) candidate Jose Rizo trails
    Montealegre by about ten points.  According to Elgarresta,
    Montealegre leads by 14-15 points in Chinandega and Granada,
    while Ortega maintains a two-point lead over Montealegre in
    Leon.  Ortega enjoys a few points' lead over Rizo in
    Matagalpa, followed closely by Montealegre; however, he
    believes Montealegre can gain more support there.  Arguing
    that Ortega has reached his ceiling, but Montealegre has not,
    Elgarresta was confident that the bulk of independent and
    undecided voters, as well as some PLC supporters, will shift
    their support to Montealegre once they are convinced that he
    is the only candidate who can beat Ortega.

    ¶3.  (S) Regarding Montealegre's campaign, Elgarresta noted
    that it is finally shaping up and campaign money flowing in
    -- but not soon enough.  (NOTE/COMMENT: According to
    Montealegre supporter Vilma Leon-York, who is assisting
    Eduardo Montealegre's fundraising efforts, Montealegre's wife
    Eliza will participate in fundraising events in Atlanta, San
    Francisco, Los Angeles, and Miami over the next week.
    Eduardo will participate in a fundraising event in Miami on
    October 10, reportedly with the support of Mel Martinez, and
    an event in Washington DC on October 16, reportedly with the
    support of Jeanne Kirkpatrick.  We also hear that the
    Taiwanese will support Montealegre starting early October.
    END NOTE/COMMENT.)

    ¶4.  (C) Elgarresta explained that he closely monitors the
    communications aspects of the campaign, which includes a
    substantial spike in radio and television spots during the
    month of October.  While many of the spots will focus on what
    Montealegre offers, some will attack Ortega, specifically
    warning voters that the forced conscription of the 1980s
    could return if the FSLN wins.  One spot will feature a woman
    who lost one of her son's in the 1980s.  Elgarresta noted
    that ALN will also play on Congressman Burton's recent
    warning that an Ortega victory could spell disaster for the
    some 800 million dollars or so in remittances expatriate
    Nicaraguans send home each year.

    ¶5.  (C) Regarding how the U.S. can best help, Elgarresta
    listed ensuring a clean electoral process through massive,
    top-notch observation and our "encouragement" of private
    sector backing.  (COMMENT: Other recent polls also suggest
    that Montealegre is closing in on Ortega; however the
    possibility that Ortega will do his utmost to alter the
    election results to win on the first round is real.  In
    addition to manipulations through the use of vote challenges
    (impugnaciones), we are hearing from a number of contacts
    that the FSLN is planning targeted power and phone line
    outages in voting centers and tables (JRVs) where Ortega is
    weak to interrupt voting and tabulation as well as the faxing
    of results from these areas.  Informed observers, party poll
    watchers, and voters can help deter and minimize the fraud.
    END COMMENT.)
    TRIVELLI

`