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### Viewing cable 09TIJUANA1116, QUANTIFYING VIOLENCE: TIJUANA'S DRUG VIOLENCE AS REFLECTED

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09TIJUANA1116 | 2009-10-30 19:31 | 2011-05-18 18:30 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Consulate Tijuana
Appears in these articles: http://wikileaks.jornada.com.mx/notas/eu-aplaudio-en-publico-la-pacificacion-de-tijuana-en-privado-tenia-dudas

`

    301931Z OCT 09
    From: AMCONSUL TIJUANA

` `

    232358
    2009-10-30 19:31:00
    09TIJUANA1116
    Consulate Tijuana
    UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
    09TIJUANA1092|09TIJUANA921
    301931Z OCT 09
    From: AMCONSUL TIJUANA

    UNCLAS TIJUANA 001116

    SENSITIVE

    E.O. 12958: N/A

    TAGS: KCRM SOCI MX

    SUBJECT: QUANTIFYING VIOLENCE: TIJUANA'S DRUG VIOLENCE AS REFLECTED
    IN THE STATISTICS

    REF: A) TIJUANA 1092 B) TIJUANA 921

    (SBU) SUMMARY: Various political leaders, security officials,
    and business figures in Tijuana claim - as did the Mayor during
    the Ambassador's recent visit (ref A) - that successful
    civilian-military law enforcement cooperation here has produced
    substantial progress in diminishing narco-related violence, but
    it is difficult to obtain reliable statistics to prove these
    claims. Official statistics do show a drop in murders in 2009
    as compared to the previous year, but other types of crime, such
    as kidnappings, have increased. More importantly, lethal
    attacks on police and government officials have continued at an
    unprecedented pace. It is widely believed that violent crime
    statistics are artificially low because many citizens are afraid
    to report incidents to authorities whom they suspect have been
    corrupted by drug-trafficking organizations (DTO's). To the
    extent that the overall murder rate has dropped, many attribute
    this to the unusually good personal collaboration between the
    current Mexican Army commander and the Tijuana police chief, who
    is himself a former military officer. But this personal
    collaboration could end when one or both of these individuals
    move on. (END SUMMARY)

    ¶2. (SBU) Local politicians and law enforcement officials
    point to the steep drop in narco-related murders in Baja
    California, from 604 in 2008 to 202 in the first nine months of
    2009, and a ten percent drop in overall crime in the first six
    months of 2009 versus the same period in 2008 (ref B). Most
    analysts credit the appointment of former military men to head
    municipal police entities, in particular Julian Leyzaola in
    Tijuana, and the state "preventative police" in Baja California,
    for better cooperation between civilian law enforcement and
    military forces resulting in some improvement in the security
    situation since 2008. Observers also note that the military has
    been deployed longer in Baja than in other hotspots along the
    border, such as Ciudad Juarez.

    ¶3. (SBU) Still, these statistics need to be viewed in
    context. An improvement over 2008 isn't saying much. Even
    Tijuana Mayor Jorge Ramos admitted that "~2008 was a horrible
    year for the city", with gun fights in busy streets being almost
    commonplace, and DTOs acting with near impunity. Most agree
    the city has been brought back from the brink, but Tijuana
    remains disputed territory between rival lieutenants of the
    Arellano Felix Organization (AFO) and Sinaloa DTO and therefore
    remains a high-crime city. Even if overall crime is down
    slightly from last year, certain types of crimes are increasing.
    "Deprivation of liberty" - kidnapping with no ransom, generally
    associated with DTOs - is up from 235 reported incidents in the
    first half of 2008 to 292 in 2009. The number of reported
    kidnapping with ransom remained steady. Tijuana's murder rate
    is still higher today than it was in 2005-2007. There have been
    40 policemen killed in Baja California (most in Tijuana) so far
    in 2009 - on track to meet or exceed the 49 killed in all of
    ¶2008.

    ¶4. (SBU) Moreover, the progress that has been made is
    largely due to a personal relationship between Leyzaola and the
    military General deployed here. The relationship is not
    institutionalized and could whither with changing personalities.
    Despite efforts to weed out corrupt municipal police, there
    has been no progress on wholesale institutional reform needed,
    such as creation of a civil service career structure, better
    training, and more consistent leadership. More importantly,
    progress on the streets has not been matched by progress in the
    judicial sector. For example, the local military and state
    police provided Post an impressive list of arrests and seizures
    of drugs and money for 2009. Even if the numbers are to be
    believed - and some USG sources have noted that "Baja California
    features statistics that are exceptionally and suspiciously
    higher than any other state" - there are no records of follow-on
    prosecutions resulting from these seizures. Without this piece
    of the puzzle, making permanent inroads against the DTOs will
    remain elusive.
    KASHKETT

`