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### Viewing cable 09TOKYO1811, DPJ SHOWS PRE-ELECTION AMBIGUITY TOWARDS THE

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09TOKYO1811 | 2009-08-07 07:31 | 2011-05-04 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Tokyo

`

    VZCZCXRO7155
    OO RUEHDT RUEHPB
    DE RUEHKO #1811/01 2190731
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 070731Z AUG 09
    FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5232
    INFO RUCNARF/ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
    RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA IMMEDIATE 3229
    RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL IMMEDIATE 6974
    RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA IMMEDIATE 5754
    RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA IMMEDIATE 8087
    RUEHOK/AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE IMMEDIATE 9564
    RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO IMMEDIATE 6270
    RUEHIN/AIT TAIPEI IMMEDIATE 7430
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC IMMEDIATE
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
    RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
    RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
    RUEATRS/TREASURY DEPT WASHDC IMMEDIATE
    RHMFISS/USFJ  IMMEDIATE
    RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI IMMEDIATE

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TOKYO 001811

    SIPDIS

    DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/J

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/05/2019
    TAGS: PGOV PREL JA
    SUBJECT: DPJ SHOWS PRE-ELECTION AMBIGUITY TOWARDS THE
    UNITED STATES

    REF: A. TOKYO 1755
         ¶B. TOKYO 1731
         ¶C. TOKYO 1706

    TOKYO 00001811  001.2 OF 003

    Classified By: A/DCM RON POST, REASONS 1.4 (b) and (d)

    ¶1. (C) Summary:  Media portrayals of the ruling Liberal
    Democratic Party (LDP) as pro-U.S. and the opposition
    Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) as less friendly to our
    interests are overly simplified.  While DPJ politicians have
    been more vocal in questioning issues related to the
    U.S.-Japan Alliance than their LDP counterparts, domestic
    political considerations and the presence of DPJ leaders with
    American experience and favorable attitudes towards the
    United States make the reality more nuanced.  The DPJ
    encompasses a wide spectrum of political ideologies and must
    unify its membership and possible partners under a common
    foreign policy agenda vis--vis the United States if it wins
    the general election on August 30.  Recent statements from
    DPJ President Yukio Hatoyama calling for a more independent
    foreign policy, while attaching ""utmost importance to the
    U.S.-Japan alliance,"" typify the DPJ's current ambiguity on
    U.S.-Japan relations.  However, Hatoyama clearly seeks to
    work quickly to build a ""relationship of trust"" with
    President Obama.  END SUMMARY.

    -------------------------------------------
    RECENT DPJ POSITIONS ON U.S.-RELATED ISSUES
    -------------------------------------------

    ¶2. (C) As part of its campaign for ""political change,"" the
    DPJ has sought to differentiate its policies from those of
    the LDP, and DPJ leaders have made public statements that
    seem to indicate hesitation and ambivalence concerning
    various aspects of U.S.-Japan relations.  Perhaps the
    broadest -- and least well understood -- pronouncement has
    been the DPJ's call for a more ""equal relationship"" between
    the two countries.  President Hatoyama said Japan should be
    more independent from the United States, particularly in
    foreign policy and security issues.  Although not anti-U.S.
    himself (Hatoyama has strong personal ties to the United
    States, including graduate work at Stanford, and is
    politically conservative), Hatoyama has to portray his party
    as one that will emphasize a foreign policy different from
    the LDP's as well as maintain his credibility with party
    members who harbor doubts about security cooperation with the
    United States.

    ¶3. (C) DPJ members have focused on a number of alliance
    initiatives as easy political targets for attacking the
    LDP-led government and its defense and security policies.
    Many have expressed displeasure about the Japanese
    government's commitment to finance parts of the bilateral
    plan to relocate U.S. Marines from Okinawa to Guam, both in
    terms of actual funding and the perceived lack of
    transparency and unwillingness to disclose detailed
    information by the Japanese government.  They have also
    criticized the roadmap agreement for relocating Futenma Air
    Station to a replacement facility elsewhere in Okinawa.
    Finally, many DPJ members have criticized Japan's host nation
    support for maintaining U.S. forces, often citing as a
    problem the inadequate disclosure of information by the
    Japanese government, as well as the notion that Japan should
    not fund programs that focus more on the morale and welfare
    of U.S. personnel than on operational and capabilities
    aspects of the alliance.

    ¶4. (C) Without a majority in the Upper House and no guarantee
    that it will carry a majority on its own in the August 30
    election, the DPJ also has to consider the stances of smaller
    parties including the Social Democratic Party (SDP), which in
    particular is ideologically opposed to various aspects of
    U.S.-Japan security cooperation.  After DPJ Secretary General
    Katsuya Okada announced that the Indian Ocean refueling

    TOKYO 00001811  002.2 OF 003

    mission by the Japan Maritime Self Defense Force (JMSDF)
    would continue under a new DPJ administration, President
    Hatoyama was forced to respond to the SDP's strong opposition
    to Okada's statement by clarifying that although the mission
    would not be terminated immediately upon the DPJ's accession
    to power in September, it would not be renewed when it
    expires in January 2010.  (Refs A and B).

    ¶5. (C) That said, as the Lower House election has drawn
    closer, and the prospects for a DPJ victory have grown
    increasingly favorable, the party has noticeably toned down
    its often strong rhetoric on a number of these issues.  The
    absence of some of the DPJ's more anti-U.S. stances in its
    recently released ""manifesto"" (party platform), for example,
    indicates a shift to a more pragmatic line on alliance
    issues.  ""This is a reflection of our party's realization
    that we actually might win and thus must make our policy
    positions more responsible,"" DPJ policy planning advisor
    Kiyoshi Sugawa told Embassy Tokyo August 6.

    -----------------------------------
    BROAD RANGE OF VIEWS WITHIN THE DPJ
    -----------------------------------

    ¶6. (C) Among the DPJ's foreign and security policy experts,
    there are a number of heavyweights who generally exhibit
    favorable attitudes towards the United States and the
    Alliance.  Among them are Ichiro Ozawa (former DPJ President
    and current Acting Vice President in charge of election
    strategy), who throughout his career has been a friend of the
    Alliance but occasionally uses anti-U.S. foreign policy
    pronouncements to score domestic political points.  Current
    DPJ President Yukio Hatoyama (Stanford alum),
    Secretary-General Katsuya Okada, and Vice President Seiji
    Maehara also have conservative backgrounds and generally
    espouse pro-Alliance lines.  Other DPJ leaders who have close
    ties with and sympathies towards the United States include
    Akihisa Nagashima (DPJ Deputy Secretary-General, former
    Council of Foreign Relations Fellow, and SAIS alum), Shu
    Watanabe (DPJ Deputy Secretary-General, Columbia alumi),
    Yoshinori Suematsu (Chairman of the Lower House Committee on
    Youth Affairs, Princeton alum), Kazuya Shimba (Middle East
    expert, Oberlin alum), and Shinkun Haku (Shadow Vice Foreign
    Minister, former President of Chosun Ilbo Japan office,
    frequent official and personal travel to the U.S.).

    ¶7. (C) While not security and foreign policy experts, a
    number of DPJ leaders and up-and-coming members maintain
    favorable views of the Alliance and the United States, and
    are thus well positioned to help advance our goals behind the
    scenes.  They include: Kenji Yamaoka (DPJ Diet Affairs
    Committee Chairman), Jun Azumi (DPJ Diet Affairs Committee
    Principal Deputy Chairman), Yukio Edano (former DPJ Policy
    Research Committee Chairman), Koichiro Genba (former DPJ
    Acting Secretary General), Yoshito Sengoku (former DPJ Policy
    Research Committee Chairman), Yoshihiko Noda (former DPJ
    Secretary General), Sakihito Ozawa (DPJ National Movement
    Committee Chairman), Yorihisa Matsuno (DPJ Shadow Vice
    Finance Minister), and Tetsuro Fukuyama (DPJ Upper House
    Policy Research Council Chairman).  Yamaoka, Azumi, and
    Fukuyama are known for their ability to negotiate with the
    current LDP-New Komeito ruling coalition.  Edano, Genba,
    Sengoku, and Noda all enjoy the confidence of DPJ Secretary
    General Okada.  Ozawa (Sakihito) and Matsuno serve as key
    advisors to DPJ President Hatoyama and are also close
    contacts of Embassy Tokyo.

    ¶8. (C) Because of their sometimes antagonistic stances on
    some issues of importance to the U.S.-Japan alliance, some
    DPJ members are often seen as anti-U.S.  However, the reality
    of their positions is more complex.  For example, Tsuyoshi
    Yamaguchi (former DPJ Shadow Vice Foreign Minister) walks a
    fine line between being pro-U.S. on the one hand and strongly
    suspicious of U.S. policy and intentions on the other.  A

    TOKYO 00001811  003.2 OF 003

    former bureaucrat in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs,
    Yamaguchi served in Washington, D.C., Beijing, and London,
    where he met Ichiro Ozawa and decided to run for a Diet seat.
     Yamaguchi sees the current U.S.-Japan alliance as an unequal
    relationship between a ""big brother"" and ""little brother,""
    and would like to see an expanded Japanese role. He has
    argued forcefully for revision of the Status of Forces
    Agreement (SOFA) between the United States and Japan, as well
    as against the current plan for Futenma relocation.  Other
    DPJ members in this grouping include Yoshio Hachiro (DPJ
    Shadow Foreign Minister) and Takahiro Yokomichi (former Lower
    House Vice Speaker), both former Socialist Party members who
    oppose overseas missions by the Japanese Self Defense Force
    (SDF).  Hirotaka Akamatsu (Chairman of DPJ Election Strategy
    Headquarters), Seiichi Kaneta (DPJ Deputy Director General of
    Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery Organizations Bureau), and
    Katsuhiro Yokomitsu (former Social Democratic Party member
    who left the SDP in August 2005) are others who have spoken
    out against certain aspects of the Alliance.

    --------------------------------------------- ---------
    HATOYAMA WANTS CLOSE RELATIONSHIP WITH PRESIDENT OBAMA
    --------------------------------------------- ---------

    ¶9. (C) Despite the range of stances within the DPJ towards
    U.S.-related issues, DPJ President Yukio Hatoyama and other
    party leaders have made it clear that a DPJ government would
    continue to value and work with the United States while
    striving to develop a ""more independent"" foreign policy for
    Japan.  In a July 31 interview with domestic media, Hatoyama
    said, ""While we attach utmost importance to the Japan-U.S.
    alliance, it is necessary not to rely on the U.S. and develop
    a more independent foreign policy.  A diplomatic posture of
    giving importance both to Asia and the U.S. is required.  It
    is possible that we may seek an appropriate 'distance' in
    security.""  This first part of Hatoyama's statement seemed to
    indicate a shift away from the United States in terms of
    security and foreign policy, but the conclusion of his
    remarks showed otherwise:  ""The most important thing is how
    to build a relationship of trust with President Obama.  Based
    on this relationship, we will gather information and conduct
    a comprehensive review.  I have no intention to change the
    basic policy line.""  Further supporting the DPJ leader's
    desire to engage with the United States, media reported
    August 1 that Hatoyama expressed his eagerness to attend UNGA
    and the Pittsburgh Summit.  ""The DPJ sees these two events as
    good opportunities for Hatoyama to start building a personal
    and early relationship with President Obama,"" Sugawa told
    Embassy Tokyo.
    ZUMWALT

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