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### Viewing cable 04GUAYAQUIL1231, PSC SUPPORTS PRESIDENTIAL IMPEACHMENT

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
04GUAYAQUIL1231 | 2004-10-26 20:42 | 2011-05-02 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Consulate Guayaquil

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUAYAQUIL 001231

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV PINR EC
    SUBJECT: PSC SUPPORTS PRESIDENTIAL IMPEACHMENT

    ¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  On October 25, the Social Christian
    Party (PSC) leadership decided to follow through on party
    leader Leon Febres-Cordero's post-electoral threat to
    pursue impeachment proceedings for misuse of funds
    against President Lucio Gutierrez.  PSC leaders tell us
    there are divisions within the party about pursuing this
    course, but also general reluctance to confront Febres-
    Cordero.  Given half-hearted PSC support, it will be
    difficult for the opposition to attract the 67 votes
    required for impeachment.  Unfortunately, this effort
    will divert the Congress from other urgent issues
    requiring Congressional action.  End Summary.

    Resistance within PSC
    ---------------------

    ¶2.  (SBU) Nebot told the Ambassador and CG on October 26
    that the role of Congress has become a "shameful
    spectacle," with only marginal influence on national
    policy.  He said that while President Gutierrez is bad
    for Ecuador, Vice President Palacios could be worse.  The
    Ambassador emphasized the costs of political instability,
    even by constitutional means, to Ecuadorian democracy and
    the economy.  Without openly criticizing Febres-Cordero,
    Nebot implied his disagreement with the impeachment
    tactic, saying the only thing that would move him to
    challenge the Gutierrez government would be any cut to
    municipal tax resources.  With international oil prices
    at an all-time high, he said, the Gutierrez government is
    less likely to do so.  He denied any desire to run for
    president in 2006, and criticized Ecuador's record of
    negotiating international agreements.

    ¶3.  (SBU) PSC President Pascual del Cioppo told PolChief
    in October 25 that he and the grouping within the PSC led
    by Guayaquil mayor Jaime Nebot disagrees with Febres-
    Cordero's decision.  The Nebot group, which includes del
    Cioppo, Guayas prefect Nicolas Lapentti, and Manabi
    Congressman Simon Bustamante, believes ousting Gutierrez
    will damage national interests and is motivated by
    personal, not national motives.  According to del Cioppo,
    Febres-Cordero and his inner circle of Miguel Orellana
    and Javier Niera are behind the move.  Nebot and his
    supporters have been estranged from Febres-Cordero for
    some time; del Cioppo said the two men meet or talk only
    every two months.  Nebot and Lapentti were furious with
    Febres-Cordero for dominating their election night
    victory press conference.  Nebot did not attend the
    October 25 meeting; Febres-Cordero participated from New
    York by telephone.

    ¶4.  (SBU) According to del Cioppo, Congressional support
    in favor of impeachment hovers around 60-62 votes, short
    of the 67 needed to impeach.  The PSC will start the
    process using its own 25 votes to create an impeachment
    commission.  The commission would be expected to submit
    its findings to the plenary the week of November 15.  A
    simple majority of 51 votes will be required for Congress
    to declare that the recommendation to impeach has merit.
    Debate and a final vote would occur by December 9.  Del
    Cioppo expressed some worry that the impeachment process
    might tempt Gutierrez to dissolve Congress.

    ¶5.  (SBU) Divisions within the PSC over the merits of
    impeachment are already being reported publicly,
    undermining opposition support for the measure.  Some
    opposition members (even from Pachakutik, formerly
    solidly in favor of impeachment) have criticized Febres-
    Cordero's motives.  The President's wife, never a great
    defender of her husband's government, publicly declared
    in the wake of the PSC decision that the PRE and PRIAN
    will stick with the president.  She said the Socialist
    Party (PS) and Popular Democracy Movement (MPD), usually
    counted among the pro-impeachment opposition, might also
    do so.

    Comment
    -------

    ¶6.  (SBU) The decision by the PSC to go forward will not
    cause the fall of the Gutierrez government overnight, and
    at this early stage seems unlikely to come to fruition.
    While opposition to Gutierrez is high, Vice President
    Palacios is not an appealing alternative to the
    opposition.  None of our PSC or ID interlocutors are
    (yet) proposing to pass over the VP in favor of a
    consensus candidate, which would circumvent
    constitutional order.

    ¶7.  (SBU) However, at a minimum, the PSC's move to get
    the ball rolling on impeachment will divert the Congress
    from pressing issues and prompt undesirable measures from
    the Executive to attract opposition votes.  Both could
    negatively affect a variety of USG interests.  We have
    therefore emphasized to the opposition the high cost of
    political instability.  Nebot appears to have no stomach
    for challenging Febres-Cordero, and denies any desire to
    run for president in 2006.

    HERBERT

`