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### Viewing cable 09ATHENS2064, Greek Shippers Drowning in the Wake of Economic Pressures

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09ATHENS2064 | 2009-11-20 16:11 | 2011-05-23 08:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Athens
Appears in these articles: www.tanea.gr

`

    VZCZCXYZ0012
    RR RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHTH #2064/01 3241613
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 201611Z NOV 09
    FM AMEMBASSY ATHENS
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1116
    INFO RUEHTH/AMEMBASSY ATHENS

` `

    UNCLAS ATHENS 002064

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ECON PHSA KPIR CH GR
    SUBJECT: Greek Shippers Drowning in the Wake of Economic Pressures

    REF: ATHENS 1611; ATHENS 1581

    ¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY.  A seafaring nation for millennia, the
    resilience of the Greek shipping industry is being tested seriously
    for the first time since it rose to modern prominence in the 1960s.
    As the global economic crisis continues, and the demographics of
    international trade shift, the Greek shipping industry is straining
    to maintain its global status.  EconOffs attended the 3rd annual
    Greek Shipping Summit on November 3, and the 9th annual Navigator
    conference on November 4, where it was clear that Greek shippers
    are feeling increasing pressure on multiple fronts, including:
    increased piracy; new environmental, safety, and labor regulations;
    China's expanding role in the industry; and recent changes in
    domestic political portfolios.  How the Greek shipping industry
    addresses these challenges will impact the transport of U.S.
    exports-25 percent of which are carried by Greek-owned ships.  END
    SUMMARY.

    ¶2.  (SBU) Greece controls the world's largest merchant fleet in
    terms of dead weight tons (DWT), with 4960 vessels-33 percent of
    which are Greek-flagged.  (Note: Greek-flagged vessels make up
    approximately 6 percent of the world total.  End Note.)  The
    industry employs 250,000 individuals (though few Greeks), and
    includes 25,000 seafarers and 1200 shipping companies.  Second only
    to tourism, shipping contributed 18 billion Euro to the Greek
    economy in 2008, and shipping receipts account for approximately
    6-8 percent of Greece's GDP.  As a result of the recent global
    economic crisis, Greece's shipping income fell 31.3 percent in the
    first eight months of 2009, and shippers are bracing for the
    situation to get worse before it gets better.

    ------------------------------

    Piracy's Economic Toll

    ------------------------------

    ¶3.  (SBU) Stelios Drakakis, Head of the Marine Insurance Division
    of ISB Hellas, reported that piracy has cost the global shipping
    industry an estimated 16 billion USD.  He noted that there have
    been 309 attacks (at least 10 of which were against Greek-owned
    ships) by pirates in the first nine months of 2009-more than all of
    ¶2008.  With attacks on the rise and average ransom payments at 1
    million USD, the industry is struggling to combat this financial
    drain on both shipping companies and government coffers alike.
    Egypt's Suez Canal revenues, for instance, are projected to fall
    from 5 billion USD in 2008 to 3.1 billion USD in 2010.

    ¶4.  (SBU) Most Greek shippers support current International
    Maritime Organization (IMO) piracy guidelines, but many continue to
    debate best practices for mitigating the threat of piracy now and
    in the future.  Some in the industry are lobbying for the Gulf of
    Aden to be declared a "Naval War Zone" and for international forces
    in the Gulf to conduct operations against the pirates.  This would
    affect any insurance clauses with "war exclusions."  Currently,
    most general maritime insurance policies cover piracy, but
    individual underwriters often remove it, thereby creating the need
    for supplemental war risk insurance and increasing the cost to
    transport goods.

    ¶5.  (SBU) Greek shippers have been open with us about the
    possibility of Greece signing the New York Declaration on best
    practices for merchant vessel self protection, but the GoG is
    resisting (see reftel A).  Greece is, however, an active
    participant in the Contact Group.

    --------------------------------------------- ----------------------
    --------

    Companies Struggling with Strength of Shipyard Capacity

    --------------------------------------------- ----------------------
    --------

    ¶6.  (SBU) As demand for drybulk and other cargo declines alongside
    global GDP, the industry is facing an oversupply of shipyard
    capacity.  With the recent decline in available credit, and most
    shipping companies over-leveraged, many are seeking to cancel or
    renegotiate the price of previously ordered ships.  According to
    Philip Embiricos, former president of the Baltic and International
    Maritime Council (BIMCO), more than 50 percent of deliveries
    scheduled for 2010 and later are still without secured financing.
    Michael Bodouroglou, CEO of Paragon Shipping, stressed that 77
    percent of the world order book would need to be cancelled to bring
    supply and demand to the ideal equilibrium (with a 10 percent
    difference).  Shippers are concerned that even without financing,
    shipyards will continue to fill all outstanding orders to maintain
    shipyard employment.  Though politicians do not agree, Embiricos
    argued that industry representatives should pressure governments to
    cut shipyard capacity.

    --------------------------------------------- -------------------

    The Struggle to Accommodate New Regulations

    --------------------------------------------- -------------------

    ¶7.  (SBU) Greek ship owners are hoping that the UN Climate Change
    Conference does not yield what they perceive to be extreme
    restrictions on their emissions.  International shipping currently
    accounts for 2.7 percent of global CO2 emissions, and without a
    change in practice, shipping CO2 emissions will reach 7,000 million
    tons per year in coming years (38 percent of the global CO2 cap
    according to Copenhagen plans).  Implementing additional
    restrictions on this industry, however, will be difficult, as ship
    owners already consider themselves held to unfairly high emissions
    standards, with some arguing that EU environmental regulations and
    emissions standards should either be abolished or financially
    subsidized by the government.  For the last several years, Greek
    shippers have looked to the United States as an ally against
    excessive EU environmental positions in the IMO.  Fearing a shift
    in U.S. support, several recently traveled to Washington to take
    the pulse of congressional staff.

    ¶8.  (SBU) Other new regulations affecting the industry include new
    tugboat safety regulations proposed by the United States for U.S.
    harbors, which will subject tugboats (previously uninspected) to
    formal safety inspection by the U.S. Coast Guard.  The regulations
    are expected to be in place by January 2010, but will be open for
    industry comment beforehand.

    ¶9.  (SBU) The Maritime Labor Convention (MLC) of 2006 is expected
    to be in place by December 2011, after most European countries
    ratify it in 2010.  Vessels over 500GT engaged in international
    shipping will be required to carry a Maritime Labor Certificate,
    which attests to the working and living conditions of the vessel
    and compliance with flag state laws.  All flag states will have to
    review current national legislation to ensure MLC compliance.

    --------------------------------------------- ----------------------
    ------

    China's Position in the Changing Shipping Demographic

    --------------------------------------------- ----------------------
    ------

    ¶10.  (SBU) China's role in the shipping industry-direct and
    indirect-mirrors its rising position in the global economy.   As
    Chinese domestic construction expands as a result of its rapidly
    growing and competitive economy, its demand for iron ore imports
    and related shipping services also is increasing.  Shifting labor
    demographics mean that Chinese demand for imported energy and
    construction materials will increasingly be met by ships manned by
    Chinese seafarers.  Greek fleets have used primarily Filipino,
    Chinese, Indian, and Ukrainian seafarers, but the pool of available
    seafarers is ageing, with a general shift away from the profession
    everywhere except China.  Though the number of Filipino workers in
    the global market is steadily increasing (many going to the Middle
    East), the number of Filipino seafarers is also declining.  As a
    result, China is likely to displace the Philippines as the next

    largest supplier of seafarers.  Greece has not been successful in
    attracting its own youth into the merchant marine and is
    contemplating how to make the sector more attractive to Greek
    graduates and recent immigrants to Greece who suffer from high
    unemployment.

    ¶11.  (SBU) Conference participants were also seized with China's
    increasing role in shipbuilding.  China recently surpassed South
    Korea as the world's largest shipbuilder, with 34.7 percent of the
    market.  China has a comparative advantage as a result of its cheap
    labor and availability of land to expand shipyards, and it has
    gained additional market share by offering generous loan terms to
    foreign buyers and domestic shipbuilders.  The Chinese also have
    started to purchase some of the shipyard overstock that Greek and
    other western European ship owners cannot absorb given the current
    lower cargo demand.  These ships are purchased cheaply and
    immediately incorporated into the Chinese shipping fleet, according
    to Denis Petropolis of Braemer Seascope.

    ¶12.  (SBU) On shore, Beijing-based China Ocean Shipping Company
    (COSCO) has secured a 35-year concession to manage one of two
    existing terminals and to rebuild a third terminal at Piraeus,
    Greece's largest port and the top container port in the eastern
    Mediterranean.  This controversial 4.3 billion Euro deal between
    COSCO and the Piraeus Port Authority (OLP), which will expand
    Greece's role in Mediterranean shipping and transport, sparked a
    series of recent strikes by Greek dockworkers that cost businesses
    and the Greek government tens of millions of Euro in lost revenue
    (see reftel B).  Despite the labor tensions, China is not backing
    away from the terms of the deal, and the GoG has said it will
    enforce its terms.

    --------------------------------------------- ---------------------

    Shipping Takes a Hit in the Reshuffle of Ministries

    --------------------------------------------- ---------------------

    ¶13.  (SBU) Following Greece's October 2009 elections, and the
    installation of a PASOK government, the Ministry of Mercantile
    Marine, Aegean Sea and Island Policy was split up, with commercial
    shipping issues now falling under the Ministry of Economy,
    Competitiveness, and Shipping.  Industry representatives are
    clearly annoyed at the change, and sense that their issues might
    get less attention than they have been accustomed to.  One of the
    conference speakers even argued that the industry should "revolt"
    against the dismantling of the Ministry of Mercantile Marine.  That
    Minister Louka Katseli cancelled her keynote address to the
    Navigator conference at the last minute did not help, and was noted
    by one of the speakers.

    ¶14.  (SBU) Comment:  Greece's shipping industry is facing a diverse
    set of new challenges at a time when the global economic crisis is
    already dampening shipping demand.  Greek shippers are confident
    that they will weather this storm, but their role as the industry
    giant could erode in the long-term as China and other new actors
    offer competitive alternatives and expand their presence in the
    sector.  With 25 percent of U.S. exports being moved by Greek-owned
    ships, how Greek shippers address these challenges, and whether
    they do so successfully, will affect the nature of how U.S. goods
    are moved to international markets.
    Speckhard

`