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### Viewing cable 09THEHAGUE731, NETHERLANDS/AFGHANISTAN: SWAYING THE DUTCH

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09THEHAGUE731 | 2009-12-04 17:54 | 2011-01-17 00:00 | SECRET//NOFORN | Embassy The Hague

`

    VZCZCXRO8136
    PP RUEHDBU RUEHPW RUEHSL
    DE RUEHTC #0731/01 3381754
    ZNY SSSSS ZZH
    P 041754Z DEC 09
    FM AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3536
    INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEKJCS/CJCS WASHDC PRIORITY
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
    RUEKJCS/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHDC PRIORITY

` `

    S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 000731

    NOFORN
    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2019
    TAGS: PREL NATO AF NL
    SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/AFGHANISTAN: SWAYING THE DUTCH

    REF: A. STATE 124188
         ¶B. USNATO 563
         ¶C. THE HAGUE 726
         D...

    238255,12/4/2009 17:54,09THEHAGUE731,"Embassy The
    Hague",SECRET//NOFORN,09STATE124188|09THEHAGUE718|09THEHAGUE726|09USN
    ATO563,"VZCZCXRO8136
    PP RUEHDBU RUEHPW RUEHSL
    DE RUEHTC #0731/01 3381754
    ZNY SSSSS ZZH
    P 041754Z DEC 09
    FM AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3536
    INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEKJCS/CJCS WASHDC PRIORITY
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
    RUEKJCS/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHDC PRIORITY","S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02
    THE HAGUE 000731
    NOFORN
    SIPDIS
    E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2019
    TAGS: PREL NATO AF NL
    SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/AFGHANISTAN: SWAYING THE DUTCH
    REF: A. STATE 124188
    ¶B. USNATO 563
    ¶C. THE HAGUE 726
    ¶D. THE HAGUE 718
    Classified By: Pol Deputy Eric G. Falls for reasons 1.4(b,d)
    ¶1. (S/NF) SUMMARY: All evidence suggests the Dutch will
    not/not retain a significant number of troops in Uruzgan, and
    the coalition government could fall over this issue. Pushing
    the government to collapse on this matter is not in our
    interest. Accepting Dutch compromise proposals is to our
    advantage. END SUMMARY.
    DUTCH LEAVING URUZGAN
    ---------------------
    ¶2. (S/NF) Ambassador pressed Development Minister Bert
    Koenders (Labor Party) to retain a Dutch military
    contribution in Afghanistan in a meeting December 4. Koenders
    observed that the pressure after the President,s speech is
    logical. He gave no insights that have not been in his
    recent, public statements. Koenders repeated that there will
    be no Dutch troops in Uruzgan after 2010 and flatly stated
    the Dutch would also not lead the PRT in Uruzgan. However,
    he did acknowledge that it is important for the Netherlands
    to continue to do its part for NATO and said there were
    ""discussions"" within the cabinet on committing Dutch troops
    elsewhere in southern Afghanistan.
    ¶3. (S/NF) D/PM / Finance Minister / Labor Party leader Wouter
    Bos recently declined a requested meeting with Ambassador
    Levin to discuss Afghanistan. He referred the Ambassador
    instead to Koenders, Bos's primary adviser on Afghanistan.
    In all public statements during the past several months, and
    repeated publicly as recently as two days ago, just after
    President Obama's speech, Bos has consistently stated the
    Dutch will leave Uruzgan in 2010.
    ¶4. (S/NF) Even Ministers that support continued involvement
    in Afghanistan at the most aggressive level have been clear
    about this basic point. FM Verhagen stated ""the U.S. knows
    that we will hand over the lead in Uruzgan"" in 2010.
    ¶5. (S/NF) Comment: The Labor Party has left no room for their
    own maneuvering on pulling everyone out of Uruzgan except for
    a few (12) development personnel. We expect the Labor Party
    could well bring down the government rather than extend the
    Uruzgan mission. The Labor Party's ""bread and butter"" is the
    economy, but the party is looking for an out to rally their
    rank and file. The Labor Party's poll numbers have been low
    for months, suggesting a steep loss of seats in a near-term
    election. Accompanying this poor performance has been
    criticism of Bos's leadership and his willingness to flip
    flop. We expect that rather than reverse course again and
    support a robust Uruzgan mission, Bos would opt to pull out
    of the coalition and campaign on Afghanistan. End Comment.
    GOVERNMENT COLLAPSE NOT IN OUR INTEREST
    ---------------------------------------
    ¶6. (S/NF) A collapse of the government hurts our chances for
    Dutch contributions and would delay any prospective Dutch
    contributions.
    ¶7. (S/NF) A collapse hurts our chances for significant Dutch
    military contributions. If Labor pulls the plug on the
    governing coalition at this time, it would likely make
    Afghanistan one of the central campaign issues. Dutch public
    support for the mission continues at a low level (33% as of
    October 30), suggesting that advocates for a deployment will
    lose seats in parliament. On the other hand, Geert Wilders'
    Qlose seats in parliament. On the other hand, Geert Wilders'
    far-right, isolationist Freedom Party stands to gain
    significant seats in parliament. In turn, a new governing
    coalition will likely be forced to include more parties to
    reach a majority. It's likely the coalition could shift to
    the left and include parties who are likely to oppose
    deployment after the elections' ""referendum on Afghanistan.""
    ¶8. (S/NF) A collapse of the government will delay additional
    Dutch contributions. New elections and the formation of a
    new government will take 5-10 months, possibly longer due to
    Wilders' popularity and the corresponding difficulty in
    forming a new government. Until the new government is
    THE HAGUE 00000731 002 OF 002
    formed, the caretaker government would not be able to approve
    a new military mission. Considering that Dutch troops are
    scheduled to depart this summer, as well as the planning
    required for an extension, withdrawal from Uruzgan will
    proceed as scheduled and a new deployment could easily be
    delayed until 2011.
    ACCEPTING DUTCH PROPOSALS IS TO OUR ADVANTAGE
    ---------------------------------------------
    ¶9. (S/NF) The new Dutch proposal -- maintaining a civilian
    PRT with protection by another ally, plus troops elsewhere in
    southern Afghanistan -- is better than waiting for a new
    coalition government that might not give us anything more,
    and could well give us less. Embassy counsels patience,
    deference and openness with Dutch government's efforts to
    sustain their Afghanistan deployment. PM Balkenende's
    consistent support for the Afghanistan mission and his
    success in leading his party to four consecutive wins in
    national elections give us confidence. We recommend
    deferring to the advice of Balkenende's National Security
    Adviser on not publicly pressuring the Dutch on Afghanistan.
    LEVIN

`