Cable Viewer

Currently released so far... 12931 / 251,287

### Articles

Brazil Sri Lanka United Kingdom Sweden 00. Editorial United States Latin America Egypt Jordan Yemen

### Browse latest releases

2010/11 2010/12 2011/01 2011/02 2011/03 2011/04 2011/05
2010/11/28 2010/11/29 2010/11/30
2010/12/01 2010/12/02 2010/12/03 2010/12/04 2010/12/05 2010/12/06 2010/12/07 2010/12/08 2010/12/09 2010/12/10 2010/12/11 2010/12/12 2010/12/13 2010/12/14 2010/12/15 2010/12/16 2010/12/17 2010/12/18 2010/12/19 2010/12/20 2010/12/21 2010/12/22 2010/12/23 2010/12/24 2010/12/25 2010/12/26 2010/12/27 2010/12/28 2010/12/29 2010/12/30
2011/01/01 2011/01/02 2011/01/04 2011/01/05 2011/01/07 2011/01/09 2011/01/10 2011/01/11 2011/01/12 2011/01/13 2011/01/14 2011/01/15 2011/01/16 2011/01/17 2011/01/18 2011/01/19 2011/01/20 2011/01/21 2011/01/22 2011/01/23 2011/01/24 2011/01/25 2011/01/26 2011/01/27 2011/01/28 2011/01/29 2011/01/30 2011/01/31
2011/02/01 2011/02/02 2011/02/03 2011/02/04 2011/02/05 2011/02/06 2011/02/07 2011/02/08 2011/02/09 2011/02/10 2011/02/11 2011/02/12 2011/02/13 2011/02/14 2011/02/15 2011/02/16 2011/02/17 2011/02/18 2011/02/19 2011/02/20 2011/02/21 2011/02/22 2011/02/23 2011/02/24 2011/02/25 2011/02/26 2011/02/27 2011/02/28
2011/03/01 2011/03/02 2011/03/03 2011/03/04 2011/03/05 2011/03/06 2011/03/07 2011/03/08 2011/03/09 2011/03/10 2011/03/11 2011/03/13 2011/03/14 2011/03/15 2011/03/16 2011/03/17 2011/03/18 2011/03/19 2011/03/20 2011/03/21 2011/03/22 2011/03/23 2011/03/24 2011/03/25 2011/03/26 2011/03/27 2011/03/28 2011/03/29 2011/03/30 2011/03/31
2011/04/01 2011/04/02 2011/04/03 2011/04/04 2011/04/05 2011/04/06 2011/04/07 2011/04/08 2011/04/09 2011/04/10 2011/04/11 2011/04/12 2011/04/13 2011/04/14 2011/04/15 2011/04/16 2011/04/17 2011/04/18 2011/04/19 2011/04/20 2011/04/21 2011/04/22 2011/04/23 2011/04/24 2011/04/25 2011/04/26 2011/04/27 2011/04/28 2011/04/29 2011/04/30
2011/05/01 2011/05/02 2011/05/03 2011/05/04 2011/05/05 2011/05/06 2011/05/07 2011/05/08 2011/05/09 2011/05/10 2011/05/11 2011/05/12 2011/05/13 2011/05/14 2011/05/15 2011/05/16 2011/05/17 2011/05/18 2011/05/19 2011/05/20 2011/05/21 2011/05/22 2011/05/23 2011/05/24

### Browse by creation date

66 72 73 75 79 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 96 97 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
1966/12
1972/02 1972/08
1973/04
1975/03
1979/08
1985/03 1985/05 1985/06
1986/05
1987/06
1988/01 1988/03 1988/07
1989/12
1990/01 1990/07 1990/08 1990/10
1991/05
1992/01 1992/03 1992/06 1992/09 1992/12
1993/01 1993/10
1994/12
1996/07 1996/11
1997/06 1997/12
2000/05 2000/06 2000/09 2000/11
2001/02 2001/03 2001/06 2001/07 2001/09 2001/10 2001/11
2002/01 2002/02 2002/03 2002/04 2002/07 2002/08 2002/09 2002/11 2002/12
2003/01 2003/02 2003/03 2003/04 2003/05 2003/06 2003/07 2003/08 2003/09 2003/10 2003/11 2003/12
2004/01 2004/02 2004/03 2004/04 2004/05 2004/06 2004/07 2004/08 2004/09 2004/10 2004/11 2004/12
2005/01 2005/02 2005/03 2005/04 2005/05 2005/06 2005/07 2005/08 2005/09 2005/10 2005/11 2005/12
2006/01 2006/02 2006/03 2006/04 2006/05 2006/06 2006/07 2006/08 2006/09 2006/10 2006/11 2006/12
2007/01 2007/02 2007/03 2007/04 2007/05 2007/06 2007/07 2007/08 2007/09 2007/10 2007/11 2007/12
2008/01 2008/02 2008/03 2008/04 2008/05 2008/06 2008/07 2008/08 2008/09 2008/10 2008/11 2008/12
2009/01 2009/02 2009/03 2009/04 2009/05 2009/06 2009/07 2009/08 2009/09 2009/10 2009/11 2009/12
2010/01 2010/02

### Browse by origin

A B C D F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W Y Z
Embassy Athens Embassy Asuncion Embassy Astana Embassy Asmara Embassy Ashgabat Embassy Apia Embassy Ankara Embassy Amman Embassy Algiers Embassy Addis Ababa Embassy Accra Embassy Abuja Embassy Abu Dhabi Embassy Abidjan Consulate Auckland Consulate Amsterdam Consulate Adana American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura Embassy Buenos Aires Embassy Budapest Embassy Bucharest Embassy Brussels Embassy Bridgetown Embassy Bratislava Embassy Brasilia Embassy Bogota Embassy Bishkek Embassy Bern Embassy Berlin Embassy Belmopan Embassy Belgrade Embassy Beirut Embassy Beijing Embassy Banjul Embassy Bangkok Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan Embassy Bamako Embassy Baku Embassy Baghdad Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen Embassy Conakry Embassy Colombo Embassy Chisinau Embassy Caracas Embassy Canberra Embassy Cairo Consulate Curacao Consulate Ciudad Juarez Consulate Chennai Consulate Casablanca Consulate Cape Town Consulate Calgary
Embassy Dushanbe Embassy Dublin Embassy Doha Embassy Djibouti Embassy Dili Embassy Dhaka Embassy Dar Es Salaam Embassy Damascus Embassy Dakar Consulate Dubai
Embassy Freetown Consulate Fukuoka
Embassy Guatemala Embassy Gaborone Consulate Guayaquil Consulate Guadalajara
Embassy Helsinki Embassy Harare Embassy Hanoi Consulate Ho Chi Minh City Consulate Hermosillo Consulate Hamilton Consulate Hamburg Consulate Halifax
Iran RPO Dubai Embassy Islamabad Consulate Istanbul
Embassy Jakarta Consulate Jerusalem Consulate Jeddah
Embassy Kyiv Embassy Kuwait Embassy Kuala Lumpur Embassy Kinshasa Embassy Kingston Embassy Kigali Embassy Khartoum Embassy Kathmandu Embassy Kampala Embassy Kabul Consulate Kolkata Consulate Karachi
Embassy Luxembourg Embassy Luanda Embassy London Embassy Ljubljana Embassy Lisbon Embassy Lima Embassy Lilongwe Embassy La Paz Consulate Lahore Consulate Lagos
Mission USOSCE Mission USNATO Mission UNESCO Embassy Muscat Embassy Moscow Embassy Montevideo Embassy Monrovia Embassy Minsk Embassy Mexico Embassy Mbabane Embassy Maputo Embassy Manila Embassy Manama Embassy Managua Embassy Malabo Embassy Madrid Consulate Munich Consulate Mumbai Consulate Montreal Consulate Monterrey Consulate Milan Consulate Melbourne
Embassy Nicosia Embassy Niamey Embassy New Delhi Embassy Ndjamena Embassy Nassau Embassy Nairobi Consulate Naples Consulate Naha
Embassy Ouagadougou Embassy Ottawa Embassy Oslo
Embassy Pristina Embassy Pretoria Embassy Prague Embassy Port Of Spain Embassy Port Louis Embassy Port Au Prince Embassy Phnom Penh Embassy Paris Embassy Paramaribo Embassy Panama Consulate Peshawar
Embassy Quito Consulate Quebec
REO Basrah Embassy Rome Embassy Riyadh Embassy Riga Embassy Reykjavik Embassy Rangoon Embassy Rabat Consulate Rio De Janeiro Consulate Recife
Secretary of State Embassy Suva Embassy Stockholm Embassy Sofia Embassy Skopje Embassy Singapore Embassy Seoul Embassy Sarajevo Embassy Santo Domingo Embassy Santiago Embassy Sanaa Embassy San Salvador Embassy San Jose Consulate Strasbourg Consulate St Petersburg Consulate Shenyang Consulate Shanghai Consulate Sapporo Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis Embassy Tripoli Embassy Tokyo Embassy The Hague Embassy Tel Aviv Embassy Tehran Embassy Tegucigalpa Embassy Tbilisi Embassy Tashkent Embassy Tallinn Consulate Toronto Consulate Tijuana
USUN New York USEU Brussels US Office Almaty US Mission Geneva US Interests Section Havana US Delegation, Secretary UNVIE Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Embassy Vilnius Embassy Vienna Embassy Vatican Embassy Valletta Consulate Vladivostok Consulate Vancouver
Embassy Windhoek Embassy Wellington Embassy Warsaw
Embassy Yerevan Embassy Yaounde
Embassy Zagreb

### Browse by tag

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
ASEC AR AF AGR AFIN AMGT ABLD AU AEMR AJ AID AMCHAMS AMED AS APER AE AORC AECL ABUD AM AG AL AUC APEC AY APECO AFGHANISTAN ACAO ANET AFFAIRS AND ADPM ASEAN ADM AGAO AINF ATRN ALOW ACOA AROC AA AADP ARF APCS ADANA ADCO AORG AO AODE ACABQ AX AMEX AZ ASUP ARM AQ ATFN AMBASSADOR ACBAQ AFSI AFSN AC ASIG ASEX AER AVERY AGRICULTURE ASCH AFU AMG ATPDEA ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG AORL AN AIT AGMT ACS
BA BR BL BO BRUSSELS BT BM BU BY BG BEXP BK BH BD BP BTIO BB BE BILAT BC BX BIDEN BF BBSR BMGT BWC BN BTIU
CY CA CD CVIS CACS CH CS CO CONS CDG CE CMGT CPAS CU CIC CASC CG CI CHR CAPC CJAN CBW CLINTON CW CWC CTR CIDA CODEL CROS CM CV CF COM COPUOS CT CARSON CBSA CN CHIEF CR CONDOLEEZZA CDC CICTE CYPRUS COUNTER COUNTRY CBE CFED CKGR CVR COUNTERTERRORISM CITEL CLEARANCE COE CARICOM CB CSW CITT CAFTA CACM CDB CJUS CTM CAN CLMT CBC CIA CNARC CIS CEUDA CAC CL
DR DJ DA DHS DAO DCM DE DOD DOMESTIC DO DEFENSE DK DPRK DEPT DEA DISENGAGEMENT DOE DTRA DS DEAX
ETTC EC EAIR EWWT EAGR EUN ECON EINV ETRD EMIN ENRG EFIN EAID EG ES ELAB EUR EN EPET EIND ELTN EU ECUN EI EZ EFIS ENIV ER ET EXIM ECIN ECPS EINT ELN ECONOMY EUMEM ERNG EK EUREM EFINECONCS EFTA ENERG ELECTIONS EAIDS ECA EPA ENGR ETRC EXTERNAL ENVI ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS EINVEFIN ETC ENVR EAP EINN ECONOMIC EXBS ENGY ECONOMICS EIAR EINDETRD ECONEFIN EURN EDU ETRDEINVTINTCS ECIP EFIM EREL EINVETC ECONCS ETRA ESA EAIG EUC ERD ETRN EINVECONSENVCSJA EEPET EUNCH ESENV ENNP ECINECONCS ETRO ETRDECONWTOCS
FI FR FMLN FISO FAS FJ FAC FTAA FREEDOM FM FOREIGN FINANCE FBI FDA FARC FAO FINR FTA FOR FOI FO
GG GR GT GM GAERC GH GY GOV GA GERARD GTIP GV GOI GANGS GLOBAL GTMO GL GF GCC GE GZ GAZA
HA HK HU HILLARY HSTC HO HR HYMPSK HUMAN HI HURI HEBRON HUMOR
IR IZ IC IAEA IS ICRC ICAO IN IO IT IV IAHRC IWC ICJ ITRA IMO IRC IRAQI ILO ISRAELI ITU IMF IBRD IQ ILC ID IEFIN ICTY ITALY IPR IIP INMARSAT ITPGOV ITALIAN INTERNAL IRS IA INTERPOL IEA INR INRB ISRAEL IZPREL IRAJ IF ITPHUM IL IACI INDO IDA ISLAMISTS IGAD ITF INRA INRO IBET INTELSAT IDP ICTR
JP JA JO JM JOHNNIE JOHN JAMES JUS JOSEPH
KOMC KRVC KSCA KPKO KNNP KCOR KTFN KDEM KJUS KCRM KGHG KISL KIRF KFRD KWMN KNEI KN KS KE KPAO KVPR KHLS KV KOLY KGIT KFLU KFLO KSAF KGIC KU KTIP KMDR KIPR KPAL KNSD KTIA KSEP KAWC KG KWBG KBIO KIDE KPLS KTDB KMPI KBTR KDRG KZ KUNR KHDP KSAC KACT KRAD KSUM KIRC KCFE KWMM KICC KR KCOM KAID KBCT KVIR KHSA KMCA KCRS KVRP KTER KSPR KSTC KSTH KPOA KFIN KTEX KCMR KMOC KCIP KAWK KTBT KPRV KO KX KMFO KENV KCRCM KBTS KSEO KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KOCI KNUP KPAONZ KNUC KNNPMNUC KERG KSCI KPRP KTLA KHIV KCSY KTRD KNAR KWAC KMRS KNPP KJUST KPWR KRCM KCFC KCHG KREL KFTFN KLIG KDEMAF KGCC KICA KHUM KSEC KPIN KESS KDEV KPIR KWWMN KOM KWNM KRFD KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KRGY KREC KIFR KWMNCS KPAK KOMS KRIM KDDG KCGC KPAI KFSC KID KMIG
LE LY LG LH LA LOG LU LABOR LI LTTE LAB LO LT
MOPS MO MASS MNUC MCAP MARR MU MTCRE MC MX MIL MG MR MAS MT MI MPOS MD ML MRCRE MTRE MY MASC MK MTCR MAPP MZ MP MA MOPPS MTS MLS MILI MAR MEPN MEPI MEETINGS MERCOSUR MW MCC MIK MAPS MV MILITARY MARAD MDC MEPP MASSMNUC MUCN MEDIA MQADHAFI MPS
NZ NATO NA NU NL NI NO NASA NP NEW NE NSG NPT NPG NS NR NG NSF NGO NSSP NATIONAL NDP NIPP NZUS NH NAFTA NC NRR NT NAR NK NATOPREL NSC NV NPA NSFO NW NORAD
OTRA OVIP OPRC OAS OSCE OIIP OREP OEXC OPDC OPIC OFDP ODIP OHUM OSCI OVP OPCW OECD OPAD ODC OFFICIALS OIE OTR OMIG OSAC OBSP OFDA ON OCII OES OCS OIC
PREL PTER PK PGOV PINR PO PINS PREF PARM PBTS PHUM PA PE POL PM PAHO PL PHSA PHUMPGOV PGOC PNR PREFA PMIL POLITICS POLICY PROV PBIO PALESTINIAN PAS PREO PAO PAK PDOV POV PCI PGOF PG PRAM PSI POLITICAL PROP PAIGH PJUS PARMS PROG PTERE PRGOV PORG PP PS PKFK PSOE PEPR PPA PINT PMAR PRELP PNG PFOR PUNE PGOVLO PHUMBA PNAT POLINT PGOVE PHALANAGE PARTY PDEM PECON PY PLN PHUH PF PHUS PTBS PU PARTIES PCUL PGGV PSA PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA PGIV PHUMPREL POGOV PEL PINL PBT PINF PRL PSEPC POSTS
QA
RS RU RO RM RP RW RFE RCMP REGION RIGHTSPOLMIL ROOD RICE ROBERT RSP RF RELATIONS RIGHTS RUPREL REACTION REPORT RSO
SA SENV SR SG SNAR SU SOCI SP SL SY SMIG SW SO SCUL SZ SI SIPRS SAARC SYR SYRIA SWE SARS SNARIZ SF SEN SCRS SC STEINBERG SN SAN ST SIPDIS SSA SPCVIS SOFA SENVKGHG SANC SHI SEVN SHUM SK SH SNARCS SPCE SNARN
TPHY TU TSPA TBIO TSPL TRGY TW TZ TC TX TT TIP TS TNGD TF TL TV TN TI TH TP TD TK TERRORISM TO TRSY TURKEY TINT TFIN TAGS TR TBID THPY
UK UP UNSC UNO UN UY UNGA USEU UZ US UNESCO UG USTR UNHRC UNCND USUN UV UNMIK USNC UNHCR UNAUS UNCHR USOAS UNEP USPS USAID UE UNVIE UAE UNDP UNODC UNCHS UNFICYP UNDESCO UNC UNPUOS UNDC UNICEF UNCHC UNCSD UNFCYP UNIDROIT
VE VT VTPREL VZ VTIZ VN VM VTEG VAT VC VI
WTRO WBG WHTI WHO WS WTO WIPO WI WMD WZ WWARD WHA WITH WTRQ WEU WMO WA WFP WB
XL XK XG XV XR XT XB XF XM XA XW XX XY XS XE XZ XU XH XD XC XQ XI XTAG
YI YM YMCS YE
ZI ZEALAND ZU ZP ZR ZO ZL ZOELLICK ZF ZB ZJ ZN ZA ZK ZANU

### Browse by classification

CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN SECRET SECRET//NOFORN UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

### Community resources

Follow us on Twitter Check our Reddit Twitter this Digg this page Contact us on IRC

courage is contagious

### Viewing cable 09ASHGABAT1182, IRAN: WHERE TO GO FROM HERE? XXXXXXXXXXXX DIPLOMAT SHARES HIS PERSPECTIVE

If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:

- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.

To understand the justification used for the classification of each cable, please use this WikiSource article as reference.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #09ASHGABAT1182.

Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09ASHGABAT1182 | 2009-09-16 11:18 | 2010-11-28 18:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Ashgabat

`

    VZCZCXRO6903
    PP RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHDBU RUEHDE RUEHDIR RUEHKUK RUEHLH
    RUEHNEH RUEHPW RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR RUEHTRO
    DE RUEHAH #1182/01 2591118
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 161118Z SEP 09
    FM AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3474
    INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
    RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
    RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
    RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
    RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 5677
    RUEHDE/AMCONSUL DUBAI 0111
    RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 3920
    RHMCSUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
    RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ASHGABAT 001182
    SIPDIS

    STATE FOR NEA/IR

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/16/2019
    TAGS: IR PGOV PREL TX UNESCO
    SUBJECT: IRAN: WHERE TO GO FROM HERE? XXXXXXXXXXXX DIPLOMAT SHARES HIS PERSPECTIVE

    ASHGABAT 00001182 001.2 OF 003

    Classified By: Acting DCM Peter Eckstrom, Reasons 1.4(b) and (d)

    ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: XXXXXXXXXXXX's advised in a recent conversation with Ashgabat Iran Watcher that the U.S. would be ill-advised to begin talks with Iran, that it would be great disappointment to Iranians who have found hope in President Obama's message of change. He called Iran's leadership “untrustworthy,” and described the three main groups that he said are sustaining the regime: the “clerical establishment, the paramilitaries and the Bazaaris (merchant class).” XXXXXXXXXXXX finds little difference between any of the major figures in Iran, including most members of the opposition. END SUMMARY.

    A TRIANGULAR BASE OF SUPPORT

    ¶2. (C) In a XXXXXXXXXXXX conversation with Iran Watcher, XXXXXXXXXXXX described his country's present political climate, stating that “nothing has changed” in either the power structure or how major decisions are made in Iran. He described the Iranian regime as a “total dictatorship,” whose continued survival depends on a “triangular” power base made up of the clerical establishment, the “bazaari” (merchants), and the “paramilitaries” (Revolutionary Guards and Basij). He said the three groups are so enmeshed, so dependent on one another, including through arranged marriages and business dealings, that the severance of any one of the three from the others would cause the regime to collapse. Supreme Leader Khamenei makes no decisions without consulting with son Mojtabah, he said, who is reputed to be “running his father's office,” in close consultation with Ayatollah Mohammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi and Kayhan editor-in-chief Hossein Shariatmadari.

    ¶3. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX compared the regime to the dictatorships of Hitler and Mussolini, and said the only difference was that Iran, unlike Nazi Germany, has had the “foresight” not to invade another country militarily, thereby preventing, in his view, any “concerted or effective international response” to its human rights violations or support for terrorism abroad. The demonstrations that began after the June presidential election and continue still are the manifestation of a youthful population that is “fed up” and demanding their “most basic human rights.” He observed that the stress that thirty years of repression is more and more causing the population to suffer from psychological problems.

    ENGAGEMENT?…NOT WITH THIS GOVERNMENT

    ¶4. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX was adamant that for the U.S. to enter into direct talks with Iran's leadership would be a mistake. Not only, he insisted, is the Iranian leadership “untrustworthy,” and dominated by a group of “messianics,” who base crucial decisions about domestic and foreign policy on a belief in the imminent return of the “Missing” (Twelfth) Imam. More importantly, he said, so many Iranians are pinning their hopes on President Obama's message of change, that for the U.S. now to negotiate with a government that continues to repress and violate the most basic rights of its citizens would be a huge disappointment, a blow to their own aspirations for change in Iran.

    THIS IS NOT 1980

    ¶5. (C) He said Iran is no longer the country or society that rallied around the war effort when Iraq invaded them in 1980. On the contrary, he said, many people he knows are actually saying things like, “Where is Israel? Why don't they just attack us and put an end to this leadership?” He said, however, that new sanctions on necessities such as fuel, would meet with immense public anger as they would mostly affect those who rely on gasoline to commute or make a living.

    ASHGABAT 00001182 002.2 OF 003 THE EDUCATION SYSTEM: A TOTAL MESS

    ¶6. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX estimated that if one counts both teachers and educators, about a third of the country is part of the education system. He lamented the government's “squandering” of its greatest national resource, the 70% of the population who are under the age of 29, with what he called “substandard schooling.” “Such a youthful population, properly educated and trained, could be Iran's greatest asset,” he said. Twenty percent of the population is illiterate, and the rest is comprised of two groups: those who are educated and informed (i.e. the voters who supported Mousavi and Karroubi), and the other, lesser-educated group more likely to follow the dictates of the government and the clerical establishment.

    DETAINEES RELEASED AFTER PAYMENTS OF CASH

    ¶7. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX said that people detained following the June election have had to pay large sums to be released. He described the parents and grandparents of Nazak Afshar, the French embassy local employee arrested and later released in August, as financially “ruined” after having to pay $500,000 for her release. “It took everything they owned,” he said, “they have absolutely nothing now.” Those whose families have no assets at all “don't have a prayer” of getting out, he said.

    AHMADINEJAD OR MOUSAVI: SHADES OF GRAY

    ¶8. (C) In XXXXXXXXXXXX's view, the recent presidential election presented no real choice to the Iranian public, just the “facade” of one, because Mousavi “himself is an insider, part of the establishment,” and was even responsible as prime minister during the 1980's for the creation of the dreaded “morality police.” He said that the authorities made a big mistake in not allowing Mousavi to win the election in accordance with the popular vote. “They could have controlled him, nothing would have changed, but their actions have now unleashed a frustration and an anger that they cannot control.” He is equally unimpressed with former Presidents Khatami and Rafsanjani, whom he deems, “just as interested in their personal fortunes over the interests of the people as everyone else,” citing in particular the violent crackdowns on the student population that took place during Khatami's presidency.

    THE ANSWER?…STOP THE FLOW OF CASH

    ¶9. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX sees the sanctions regime as ineffective. The infusion of cash from abroad is keeping the Iranian regime afloat 30 years after the revolution, including (indirectly, mostly through the UAE) from the U.S. and Europe. Large amounts of money for investment in the markets, especially Tehran's booming real estate market, is keeping the Bazaaris content. Investment in the sale of commodities, for example, brings a return of 50% per year, he said, and investors in real estate can double their money in just a few months. “The Bazaaris are the key to everything, just as they were in 1979,” he said. “To see an end to this regime, cut off the funds coming through Dubai. If the regime loses the support of the Bazaaris, that will be the end of it.” He considered it telling that, when the government attempted to impose a V.A.T. last winter, merchants went on strike and the bazaars were closed for several days. By comparison, he said, the bazaar has not closed once since the election in June, even during the demonstrations and mass arrests that followed.

    ¶10. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX

    ¶11. (C) BIO NOTE AND COMMENT: XXXXXXXXXXXX

    ¶12. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX does nothing to hide his disdain for Iran's theocracy. In his view, it is a regime that is fundamentially flawed and incapable of reforming itself, respecting basic human rights, or becoming a responsible member of the international community. His scathing criticism is not directed only at Iran, however. He also expressed disappointment at the UN, and what he termed it's “shameful silence in the face of such blatant human rights violations” in Iran. XXXXXXXXXXXX. END COMMENT.
    CURRAN

`