Cable Viewer

Currently released so far... 12900 / 251,287

### Browse latest releases

2010/11 2010/12 2011/01 2011/02 2011/03 2011/04 2011/05
2010/11/28 2010/11/29 2010/11/30
2010/12/01 2010/12/02 2010/12/03 2010/12/04 2010/12/05 2010/12/06 2010/12/07 2010/12/08 2010/12/09 2010/12/10 2010/12/11 2010/12/12 2010/12/13 2010/12/14 2010/12/15 2010/12/16 2010/12/17 2010/12/18 2010/12/19 2010/12/20 2010/12/21 2010/12/22 2010/12/23 2010/12/24 2010/12/25 2010/12/26 2010/12/27 2010/12/28 2010/12/29 2010/12/30
2011/01/01 2011/01/02 2011/01/04 2011/01/05 2011/01/07 2011/01/09 2011/01/10 2011/01/11 2011/01/12 2011/01/13 2011/01/14 2011/01/15 2011/01/16 2011/01/17 2011/01/18 2011/01/19 2011/01/20 2011/01/21 2011/01/22 2011/01/23 2011/01/24 2011/01/25 2011/01/26 2011/01/27 2011/01/28 2011/01/29 2011/01/30 2011/01/31
2011/02/01 2011/02/02 2011/02/03 2011/02/04 2011/02/05 2011/02/06 2011/02/07 2011/02/08 2011/02/09 2011/02/10 2011/02/11 2011/02/12 2011/02/13 2011/02/14 2011/02/15 2011/02/16 2011/02/17 2011/02/18 2011/02/19 2011/02/20 2011/02/21 2011/02/22 2011/02/23 2011/02/24 2011/02/25 2011/02/26 2011/02/27 2011/02/28
2011/03/01 2011/03/02 2011/03/03 2011/03/04 2011/03/05 2011/03/06 2011/03/07 2011/03/08 2011/03/09 2011/03/10 2011/03/11 2011/03/13 2011/03/14 2011/03/15 2011/03/16 2011/03/17 2011/03/18 2011/03/19 2011/03/20 2011/03/21 2011/03/22 2011/03/23 2011/03/24 2011/03/25 2011/03/26 2011/03/27 2011/03/28 2011/03/29 2011/03/30 2011/03/31
2011/04/01 2011/04/02 2011/04/03 2011/04/04 2011/04/05 2011/04/06 2011/04/07 2011/04/08 2011/04/09 2011/04/10 2011/04/11 2011/04/12 2011/04/13 2011/04/14 2011/04/15 2011/04/16 2011/04/17 2011/04/18 2011/04/19 2011/04/20 2011/04/21 2011/04/22 2011/04/23 2011/04/24 2011/04/25 2011/04/26 2011/04/27 2011/04/28 2011/04/29 2011/04/30
2011/05/01 2011/05/02 2011/05/03 2011/05/04 2011/05/05 2011/05/06 2011/05/07 2011/05/08 2011/05/09 2011/05/10 2011/05/11 2011/05/12 2011/05/13 2011/05/14 2011/05/15 2011/05/16 2011/05/17 2011/05/18 2011/05/19 2011/05/20 2011/05/21 2011/05/22 2011/05/23 2011/05/24

### Browse by creation date

66 72 73 75 79 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 96 97 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
1966/12
1972/02 1972/08
1973/04
1975/03
1979/08
1985/03 1985/05 1985/06
1986/05
1987/06
1988/01 1988/03 1988/07
1989/12
1990/01 1990/07 1990/08 1990/10
1991/05
1992/01 1992/03 1992/06 1992/09 1992/12
1993/01 1993/10
1994/12
1996/07 1996/11
1997/06 1997/12
2000/05 2000/06 2000/09 2000/11
2001/02 2001/03 2001/06 2001/07 2001/09 2001/10 2001/11
2002/01 2002/02 2002/03 2002/04 2002/07 2002/08 2002/09 2002/11 2002/12
2003/01 2003/02 2003/03 2003/04 2003/05 2003/06 2003/07 2003/08 2003/09 2003/10 2003/11 2003/12
2004/01 2004/02 2004/03 2004/04 2004/05 2004/06 2004/07 2004/08 2004/09 2004/10 2004/11 2004/12
2005/01 2005/02 2005/03 2005/04 2005/05 2005/06 2005/07 2005/08 2005/09 2005/10 2005/11 2005/12
2006/01 2006/02 2006/03 2006/04 2006/05 2006/06 2006/07 2006/08 2006/09 2006/10 2006/11 2006/12
2007/01 2007/02 2007/03 2007/04 2007/05 2007/06 2007/07 2007/08 2007/09 2007/10 2007/11 2007/12
2008/01 2008/02 2008/03 2008/04 2008/05 2008/06 2008/07 2008/08 2008/09 2008/10 2008/11 2008/12
2009/01 2009/02 2009/03 2009/04 2009/05 2009/06 2009/07 2009/08 2009/09 2009/10 2009/11 2009/12
2010/01 2010/02

### Browse by origin

A B C D F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W Y Z
Embassy Athens Embassy Asuncion Embassy Astana Embassy Asmara Embassy Ashgabat Embassy Apia Embassy Ankara Embassy Amman Embassy Algiers Embassy Addis Ababa Embassy Accra Embassy Abuja Embassy Abu Dhabi Embassy Abidjan Consulate Auckland Consulate Amsterdam Consulate Adana American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura Embassy Buenos Aires Embassy Budapest Embassy Bucharest Embassy Brussels Embassy Bridgetown Embassy Bratislava Embassy Brasilia Embassy Bogota Embassy Bishkek Embassy Bern Embassy Berlin Embassy Belmopan Embassy Belgrade Embassy Beirut Embassy Beijing Embassy Banjul Embassy Bangkok Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan Embassy Bamako Embassy Baku Embassy Baghdad Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen Embassy Conakry Embassy Colombo Embassy Chisinau Embassy Caracas Embassy Canberra Embassy Cairo Consulate Curacao Consulate Ciudad Juarez Consulate Chennai Consulate Casablanca Consulate Cape Town Consulate Calgary
Embassy Dushanbe Embassy Dublin Embassy Doha Embassy Djibouti Embassy Dili Embassy Dhaka Embassy Dar Es Salaam Embassy Damascus Embassy Dakar Consulate Dubai
Embassy Freetown Consulate Fukuoka
Embassy Guatemala Embassy Gaborone Consulate Guayaquil Consulate Guadalajara
Embassy Helsinki Embassy Harare Embassy Hanoi Consulate Ho Chi Minh City Consulate Hermosillo Consulate Hamilton Consulate Hamburg Consulate Halifax
Iran RPO Dubai Embassy Islamabad Consulate Istanbul
Embassy Jakarta Consulate Jerusalem Consulate Jeddah
Embassy Kyiv Embassy Kuwait Embassy Kuala Lumpur Embassy Kinshasa Embassy Kingston Embassy Kigali Embassy Khartoum Embassy Kathmandu Embassy Kampala Embassy Kabul Consulate Kolkata Consulate Karachi
Embassy Luxembourg Embassy Luanda Embassy London Embassy Ljubljana Embassy Lisbon Embassy Lima Embassy Lilongwe Embassy La Paz Consulate Lahore Consulate Lagos
Mission USOSCE Mission USNATO Mission UNESCO Embassy Muscat Embassy Moscow Embassy Montevideo Embassy Monrovia Embassy Minsk Embassy Mexico Embassy Mbabane Embassy Maputo Embassy Manila Embassy Manama Embassy Managua Embassy Malabo Embassy Madrid Consulate Munich Consulate Mumbai Consulate Montreal Consulate Monterrey Consulate Milan Consulate Melbourne
Embassy Nicosia Embassy Niamey Embassy New Delhi Embassy Ndjamena Embassy Nassau Embassy Nairobi Consulate Naples Consulate Naha
Embassy Ouagadougou Embassy Ottawa Embassy Oslo
Embassy Pristina Embassy Pretoria Embassy Prague Embassy Port Of Spain Embassy Port Louis Embassy Port Au Prince Embassy Phnom Penh Embassy Paris Embassy Paramaribo Embassy Panama Consulate Peshawar
Embassy Quito Consulate Quebec
REO Basrah Embassy Rome Embassy Riyadh Embassy Riga Embassy Reykjavik Embassy Rangoon Embassy Rabat Consulate Rio De Janeiro Consulate Recife
Secretary of State Embassy Suva Embassy Stockholm Embassy Sofia Embassy Skopje Embassy Singapore Embassy Seoul Embassy Sarajevo Embassy Santo Domingo Embassy Santiago Embassy Sanaa Embassy San Salvador Embassy San Jose Consulate Strasbourg Consulate St Petersburg Consulate Shenyang Consulate Shanghai Consulate Sapporo Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis Embassy Tripoli Embassy Tokyo Embassy The Hague Embassy Tel Aviv Embassy Tehran Embassy Tegucigalpa Embassy Tbilisi Embassy Tashkent Embassy Tallinn Consulate Toronto Consulate Tijuana
USUN New York USEU Brussels US Office Almaty US Mission Geneva US Interests Section Havana US Delegation, Secretary UNVIE Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Embassy Vilnius Embassy Vienna Embassy Vatican Embassy Valletta Consulate Vladivostok Consulate Vancouver
Embassy Windhoek Embassy Wellington Embassy Warsaw
Embassy Yerevan Embassy Yaounde
Embassy Zagreb

### Browse by tag

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
AE ASEC AS AR AMGT AFIN AORC AU AG AF APER ABLD ADCO ABUD AM AID AJ AEMR AMED AL ASUP AN AIT ACOA ANET ASIG AA AGMT AINF AFFAIRS ADANA AY AADP ARF ACS AGR AMCHAMS AECL AUC APEC APECO AFGHANISTAN ACAO ASEAN ADM AGAO AND ADPM ATRN ALOW AROC APCS AORG AO AODE ACABQ AX AMEX AZ ARM AQ ATFN AMBASSADOR ACBAQ AFSI AFSN AC ASEX AER AVERY AGRICULTURE ASCH AFU AMG ATPDEA ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG AORL
BR BO BA BM BL BH BK BEXP BILAT BTIO BF BU BD BY BE BG BB BBSR BT BRUSSELS BP BX BC BIDEN BMGT BWC BN BTIU
CA CS CO CD CR CPAS CDG CI CDC CBW CU CVIS CE CONS CH CMGT CASC CY CW CG CJAN CIDA CODEL CWC CIA CBSA CEUDA CFED CLINTON CAC CL CACS CIC CHR CAPC CM CT CTR COM CROS CN COPUOS CV CF CARSON CONDOLEEZZA CICTE CYPRUS COUNTER COUNTRY CBE CKGR CVR COUNTERTERRORISM CITEL CLEARANCE COE CARICOM CB CSW CITT CACM CDB CJUS CTM CAN CLMT CBC CNARC CIS
DEAX DHS DAO DCM DJ DA DR DEA DE DOD DOMESTIC DO DEFENSE DK DPRK DEPT DISENGAGEMENT DOE DTRA DS
EFIN ECON ETRD EAID EC EU EUN EINV EG ETTC EIND ELAB EAGR ECIN EINT ENRG EFIS ELTN EAIR EPET EZ ET ENERG ECPS EWWT EI ETRN EINVECONSENVCSJA EEPET EUNCH ER ES EN EMIN ESENV ENNP ENGR ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS ENVI ECINECONCS ELN EFTA ELECTIONS ENVR EXTERNAL ENIV ESA EPA ETRO ETRDECONWTOCS EUR ECUN EXIM EK EUREM ECONOMY EUMEM ERNG EFINECONCS EAIDS ECA ETRC EINVEFIN ETC EAP EINN ECONOMIC EXBS ENGY ECONOMICS EIAR EINDETRD ECONEFIN EURN EDU ETRDEINVTINTCS ECIP EFIM EREL EINVETC ECONCS ETRA EAIG EUC ERD
FI FR FJ FBI FO FDA FAO FTA FOR FTAA FMLN FISO FAS FAC FREEDOM FM FOREIGN FARC FINANCE FINR FOI
GV GM GH GT GG GR GA GTIP GY GOI GZ GAERC GE GCC GOV GERARD GANGS GLOBAL GTMO GL GF GAZA
HEBRON HSTC HA HUMOR HU HO HR HK HILLARY HYMPSK HI HURI HUMAN
IQ IR IS IN IA IC IZ ICRC ID IDA IT IO IAEA ICJ ICAO IV IBRD IMF IAHRC IWC ILO ISLAMISTS IGAD ILC ITU ITF INRA INRO ICTY INRB ITALY IBET IL INTELSAT ISRAELI IMO IDP ICTR ITRA IRC IRAQI IEFIN IPR IIP INMARSAT ITPGOV ITALIAN INTERNAL IRS INTERPOL IEA INR ISRAEL IZPREL IRAJ IF ITPHUM IACI INDO
JA JO JP JUS JM JAMES JOHN JOHNNIE JOSEPH
KPAO KMDR KCOR KNNP KJUS KCRM KDEM KVPR KTFN KPRP KTIP KSCA KSUM KTEX KIDE KIRF KV KTIA KN KG KFRD KWMN KUNR KISL KU KGHG KPKO KOMS KPAL KIPR KMCA KOMC KRVC KSEP KAWC KOLY KWBG KACT KFLO KHIV KZ KGIC KBCT KDRG KBTR KCFE KE KHLS KMPI KAWK KPWR KIRC KRAD KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KFLU KPLS KRIM KSTH KDDG KPRV KICC KS KSAF KBIO KREC KCGC KCIP KTDB KWAC KPAI KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KFSC KSTC KMFO KID KNAR KMIG KVRP KNEI KGIT KNSD KHDP KSAC KWMM KR KCOM KAID KENV KVIR KHSA KO KCRS KPOA KTER KFIN KSPR KTBT KX KCMR KMOC KCRCM KBTS KSEO KOCI KNUP KPAONZ KNUC KNNPMNUC KERG KSCI KTLA KCSY KTRD KMRS KNPP KJUST KRCM KCFC KCHG KREL KFTFN KLIG KDEMAF KGCC KICA KHUM KSEC KPIN KESS KDEV KPIR KWWMN KOM KWNM KRFD KRGY KIFR KWMNCS KPAK
LE LY LH LU LI LO LG LA LOG LTTE LAB LT LABOR
MARR MOPS MUCN MCAP MNUC MEPP MTCRE MASS MO MIL MX MAS MEDIA MAR MI MQADHAFI MPOS MTCR MK MG MA MY MU ML MPS MW MD MARAD MC MR MT MTRE MASC MRCRE MAPP MZ MP MOPPS MTS MLS MILI MEPN MEPI MEETINGS MERCOSUR MCC MIK MAPS MV MILITARY MDC MASSMNUC
NI NZ NL NO NPT NATO NS NU NP NPA NSFO NDP NT NW NASA NSG NE NORAD NAFTA NG NATIONAL NSSP NV NSF NK NA NEW NPG NR NGO NIPP NZUS NH NC NRR NAR NATOPREL NSC
OIIP OPRC OTRA OEXC OREP OSCE OVIP OPAD OBSP OECD OFFICIALS OAS OPDC ODIP OPCW OES OFDP OPIC OCS OIC OHUM OSCI OVP ODC OIE OTR OMIG OSAC OFDA ON OCII
PREL PINR PGOV PARM PE PTER PHUM PO PINS PREF PK PM POL PBTS PNAT PHSA PAS PA PL PGIV PHUMPREL POGOV PAK PEL PROP PP PINL PBT PTBS PG PINF PRL PALESTINIAN PSEPC POSTS PAHO PHUMPGOV PGOC PNR PREFA PMIL POLITICS POLICY PROV PBIO PREO PAO PDOV PGOF POV PCI PRAM PSI POLITICAL PAIGH PJUS PARMS PROG PTERE PRGOV PORG PS PKFK PSOE PEPR PPA PINT PMAR PRELP PNG PFOR PUNE PGOVLO PHUMBA POLINT PGOVE PHALANAGE PARTY PDEM PECON PY PLN PHUH PF PHUS PU PARTIES PCUL PGGV PSA PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA
QA
RU RS REGION REACTION REPORT RO RW RCMP RSO RP RM ROOD RFE RICE ROBERT RSP RF RELATIONS RIGHTS RIGHTSPOLMIL RUPREL
SENV SY SNAR SCUL SP SF SW SOCI SU SMIG SO SA SR SZ SI SC SEVN SN STEINBERG SK SH SNARCS SPCE SARS SNARN SG SL SYRIA SIPRS SAARC SNARIZ SWE SYR SEN SCRS SAN ST SIPDIS SSA SPCVIS SOFA SENVKGHG SANC SHI SHUM
TU TSPA TBIO TS TRGY TINT TPHY TN TW TH TZ TSPL TP TBID TI TF TD TT TNGD TL TC THPY TIP TX TV TK TERRORISM TO TRSY TURKEY TFIN TAGS TR
UK UNSC UNGA UNESCO UNHRC UP UN USTR US UNDC UY UNICEF UNDP UNMIK UNAUS UNCHC UNCSD USOAS UNFCYP UG UNIDROIT UNO UV UNHCR UNEP USEU UZ UNCND USUN UNCHR USNC USPS USAID UE UNVIE UAE UNODC UNCHS UNFICYP UNDESCO UNC UNPUOS
VZ VT VE VI VM VTPREL VN VTIZ VTEG VAT VC
WHTI WTRO WTRQ WBG WHO WHA WFP WS WTO WB WI WMD WIPO WZ WWARD WITH WEU WMO WA
XS XH XR XL XG XA XM XK XD XF XI XB XV XW XQ XE XTAG XU XT XX XY XZ XC
YM YI YE YMCS
ZI ZK ZR ZU ZO ZP ZF ZEALAND ZL ZOELLICK ZB ZJ ZN ZA ZANU

### Browse by classification

CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN SECRET SECRET//NOFORN UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

### Community resources

Follow us on Twitter Check our Reddit Twitter this Digg this page Contact us on IRC

courage is contagious

### Viewing cable 08CAIRO783, MAHALLA RIOTS: ISOLATED INCIDENT OR TIP OF AN

If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:

- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.

To understand the justification used for the classification of each cable, please use this WikiSource article as reference.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #08CAIRO783.

Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08CAIRO783 | 2008-04-16 10:41 | 2011-02-01 15:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Cairo
Appears in these articles: http://www.lemonde.fr/cgi-bin/ACHATS/acheter.cgi?offre=ARCHIVES&type_item=ART_ARCH_30J&objet_id=1147120

`

    VZCZCXRO9526
    PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHROV
    DE RUEHEG #0783/01 1071041
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 161041Z APR 08
    FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8946
    INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE
    RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 000783

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    NSC FOR PASCUAL

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/14/2018
    TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM PHUM EG
    SUBJECT: MAHALLA RIOTS: ISOLATED INCIDENT OR TIP OF AN
    ICEBERG?

    REF: A. CAIRO 621
    ¶B. CAIRO 697
    ¶C. CAIRO 715
    ¶D. CAIRO 724
    ¶E. CAIRO 730

    Classified By: DCM Stuart E. Jones, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

    ¶1. (C) Summary: Egyptians are uneasy about the April 6 and 7
    anti-government riots in Mahalla, which featured thousands of
    unemployed youth battling riot police in the streets of the
    Nile Delta mill-town (refs B-D). The violent demonstrations
    followed on an opposition-organized general strike on April
    6, which noticeably quieted Cairo's busy streets, as many
    Egyptians stayed home, many out of fear of potential public
    disorder, and some in solidarity with the strike (ref B).
    The Mahalla riots have both reflected and fed into resentment
    about spiraling food prices and widespread anger at the
    government. Egyptians are in a sour mood, and their
    frustration seems more vocal than just a few months ago. The
    government is paying close attention, and is now focused on
    heading off a follow-on national strike called for May 4,
    Mubarak's eightieth birthday. End summary.

    --------------------
    HEROES OR HOOLIGANS?
    --------------------

    ¶2. (C) Reaction to the Mahalla clashes seems divided along
    class lines. The lower-income Egyptians we spoke with
    expressed enthusiasm about the riots, with two independently
    telling us they were "ecstatic" at the news. Many said, "the
    government deserved it." They all attributed the riots to
    sharply increased food prices. Year-on-year inflation in
    March reached 14.4 percent; food-only inflation for March
    reached 22 percent. Many Egyptians acknowledge that the
    fundamental unspoken Egyptians social pact -- the peoples'
    obeisance in exchange for a modest but government-guaranteed
    standard of living -- is under stress, and the poor feel this
    most acutely. One worker remarked: "it is the people's
    right (to strike), if their government lies to them, tells
    them that food prices are stable, but then we go try to buy
    oil or bread, and cannot afford it." A cab driver told us,
    "God willing, such riots will occur in Cairo soon; the only
    thing stopping us is fear."

    ¶3. (C) Elites appear anxious. On April 6, many parents of
    private school children kept their children home. The
    private German School was reportedly half empty. Referring
    to Mahalla, a textile factory owner told us, "The poor are
    desperate, and this is a natural result of that. We may see
    more riots, and we will definitely see more crime in Cairo;
    it is already happening; the poor have to resort to
    stealing." Meanwhile, Cairo's limited middle class seems
    stuck in between - a reflexive fear of chaos feeds their
    worries of riots, but seems nearly equaled by their
    admiration of the Mahalla protesters for "giving the
    government what it deserves," as one shop-owner told us.

    -------------------------------
    IS THIS THE START OF SOMETHING?
    -------------------------------

    ¶4. (C) The key question is, will the localized incident in
    Mahalla spark a wider movement? The government is clearly
    focused on containing unrest. Even while the riots were
    still winding down, PM Nazif traveled to Mahalla, paid
    bonuses to factory workers and praised those who did not join
    in the riots (ref D). The government has also accelerated
    arrests of activists in Cairo (ref E). The organizers of the
    April 6 strike -- distinct from Mahalla -- have already
    called, via Facebook, for a follow-on national strike on May
    4, Mubarak's eightieth birthday. Even regime insiders have
    acknowledged the political savvy behind this tactic --
    channeling current outrage towards the next big event. The
    GOE responded with a press release announcing that President
    Mubarak will give a May 5 speech to "underline Egypt's keen
    to desire to protect the rights of laborers and accentuate
    the role they can play in the development process .... and to
    reiterate the government's commitment to safeguard the
    interests of workers against any backlashes they might face
    as a result of the economic reform program." More broadly,
    the government continues to address the shortage of
    subsidized bread by using military bakeries and distribution
    centers, and bread lines in Cairo seem to have diminished.

    ¶5. (C) The government's concern is driven by recent events,
    but likely also by worried looks in the rear-view mirror.
    Egyptians are renowned for their apathy in the face of trying

    CAIRO 00000783 002 OF 002

    conditions. Nevertheless, 1952's "Black Saturday," when many
    foreign-affiliated establishments in Cairo were burned to the
    ground; the January 1977 bread riots, when tens of thousands
    of Egyptians took to the streets nationwide in
    anti-government riots precipitated by the government's
    planned cancellation of food subsidies; and the February 1986
    riots of the Central Security Forces, protesting a rumored
    extension of their term of service, resulting in hundreds of
    deaths nationwide, and USD millions in damage, all
    demonstrate that even supposedly quiescent Egyptians have
    their limits.

    ¶6. (C) While there are currently no angry demonstrators on
    the streets of Cairo, the situation is more tense than even a
    few months ago. Widespread bitterness about spiraling
    prices, seething upset about government corruption, disdain
    for the Mubarak government's perceived pro-US and Israel
    posture, and working class economic woes (ref A) bubble up in
    virtually every conversation. It is not clear how the next
    catalyst for action -- if there is one -- might materialize.
    Neither the Mahalla rioters nor the April 6 group have
    charismatic, clearly identified leadership. It is
    significant that the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), now suffering
    under the arrests of thousands of arrests of its members,
    distanced itself from both of "movements." Egypt's
    omnipresent security apparatus is also a strong
    counter-balance to riots and demonstrations. We think it is
    possible that Egypt will witness further spasms of limited
    violence, but these are likely to be isolated and
    uncoordinated, rather than revolutionary in nature.

    ¶7. (C) Although not on the scale of the 1977 or 1986 riots,
    Mahalla is significant. The violent protests demonstrated
    that it is possible to tear down a poster of Mubarak and
    stomp on it, to shout obscene anti-regime slogans, to burn a
    minibus and hurl rocks at riot police. These are unfamiliar
    images that lower-income Egyptians thrill to. In Mahalla, a
    new organic opposition force bubbled to the surface, defying
    current political labels, and apparently not affiliated with
    the MB. This may require the government to change its
    script.

    ¶8. (C) April 6 brought together disparate opposition forces
    together with numerous non-activist Egyptians, with the
    Facebook calls for a strike attracting 70,000 people on-line,
    and garnering widespread national attention. The nexus of
    the upper and middle-class Facebook users, and their poorer
    counterparts in the factories of Mahalla, created a new
    dynamic. One senior insider mused, "Who could have imagined
    that a few kids on the internet could foment a buzz that the
    entire country noticed? I wish we could do that in the
    National Democratic Party."

    ¶9. (C) Another result of Mahalla is that Mubarak will even
    more strongly resist both economic and political reform
    initiatives. Six months ago, economic cabinet ministers
    openly discussed phasing out food and fuel subsidies in favor
    of transfer payments to the very poor. That initiative now
    seems to be off the table. We are also hearing that unrest
    over prices has strengthened the security ministers in the
    cabinet in resisting privatization and other efforts towards
    liberalization. The riots introduce a new dynamic for us as
    well. Under these stressful conditions, Mubarak and his
    regime will be even more sensitive to US criticism over human
    rights abuses and democracy shortfalls. On April 15, Foreign
    Minister Aboul Gheit, meeting with the Ambassador, cited the
    Mahalla incident as a strain and added that he hoped that the
    United States would be supportive of Egypt during this
    difficult period.
    RICCIARDONE

`