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### Viewing cable 06SOFIA565, SCENESETTER FOR YOUR BILATERAL PROGRAM IN SOFIA

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06SOFIA565 | 2006-04-20 14:45 | 2011-05-21 12:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Sofia
Appears in these articles: http://www.bivol.bg/wlatakarussia.html http://www.mediapool.bg/show/?storyid=179768&srcpos=2

`

    VZCZCXRO9241
    OO RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
    DE RUEHSF #0565/01 1101445
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 201445Z APR 06
    FM AMEMBASSY SOFIA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1787
    INFO RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO IMMEDIATE 0915
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
    RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RHMFISS/CDR USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 000565

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    FOR THE SECRETARY FROM AMBASSADOR BEYRLE

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/20/2016
    TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ENRG EINV OVIP EUN LY IZ BG
    SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR YOUR BILATERAL PROGRAM IN SOFIA

    Classified By: Ambassador John Beyrle for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

    ¶1. (C) SUMMARY.  All of Bulgaria -- and many others in the
    region -- will be watching April 27 as you and Foreign
    Minister Kalfin sign in Sofia the Defense Cooperation
    Agreement (DCA), which gives U.S. military forces access to
    Bulgarian bases.  The long-awaited agreement will be the
    highlight of your bilateral agenda and a major milestone in
    our relations with this consistently reliable ally.  Bulgaria
    is working hard to get into the European Union on January 1
    and, with troops in Iraq, Afghanistan and the Western
    Balkans, is boxing above its weight on the world stage.  The
    government has asked for and deserves our active support on
    behalf of their on-time membership in the EU.  They are also
    looking for your help in casting the DCA as a victory, and in
    putting the military aspects of our relationship in a larger
    overall context that includes close political and economic
    cooperation.  Your overall message should be that Bulgaria is
    a valued partner in the security sphere and across the full
    range of U.S. interests.

    ¶2. (C) Passivity in the face of corruption and organized
    crime has been the weak point not only in this government's
    record, but its predecessors' as well.  This may be starting
    to change under pressure from the EU and with the appointment
    of a respected new Chief Prosecutor.  The government's
    ability to actively promote democracy in the Western Balkans
    or Black Sea region has been hampered by its near-total focus
    on EU membership, but it is ready in principle to play a
    role.  In the longer term, we should encourage Bulgaria to
    wean itself from over-dependence on Russian energy.  As for
    domestic politics, the pro-American coalition headed by
    Socialist Prime Minister Sergei Stanishev, whom you will
    meet, is stable in the near term, but is held together
    primarily by the quest for EU membership.  President Purvanov
    will seek this November to be the first Bulgarian President
    re-elected since the collapse of communism.  END SUMMARY.

    PUTTING THE "BASE AGREEMENT" IN CONTEXT
    ---------------------------------------

    ¶3. (C) The signing of the Defense Cooperation Agreement is a
    monumental event for Bulgaria.  The Agreement, which gives
    the U.S. access to two air bases and an army training area,
    will lay the remaining foundation for the brigade-sized
    Eastern European Task Force, which will have its headquarters
    in Romania.  The negotiations have been the subject of
    widespread -- and more often than not, inaccurate -- coverage
    in the local news media.  Many Bulgarians oppose the idea of
    "foreign bases" on their soil, fear the United States will
    use Bulgaria as a launching pad to attack Iran, or believe
    that the U.S. presence will make Bulgaria a target for
    terrorists.  Polls show that the more people learn about the
    proposed U.S. presence, the less they oppose it, but the
    government still needs to do more to explain the agreement to
    the public.

    ¶4. (C)  It is important for the government and the public to
    hear from you that Bulgaria is a valued and equal partner,
    not just in the security sphere, but across the entire
    spectrum of our relationship.  There is a strong basis for
    that judgment.  The DCA comes on the heels of a government
    decision to send troops back to Iraq after campaigning last
    year on a platform of immediate withdrawal, and coincides
    with the ramping up of its presence in Afghanistan, where
    Bulgaria will soon take over security for Kabul airport.
    Consequently, the government is seeking to shift some of the
    focus of public discussion away from the military aspects of
    our relationship and toward the political and economic.  Here
    too, we have a good story to tell.  Huge U.S. investments are
    in the pipeline, including a 1.4 billion dollar power plant
    built by AES and a Hewlett-Packard call-service center that
    will create some 1000 knowledge-based jobs.  We still lag
    behind our EU partners in terms of direct foreign investment,
    but Bulgarian audiences need to hear that we will not be
    satisfied until we are number one.

    ENERGY DIVERSIFICATION
    ----------------------

    ¶5. (C) AES' investment in a new, clean coal-fired power plant
    will help Bulgaria diversify its dependence on Russian
    energy, but only marginally.  Bulgaria buys 88 percent of its
    gas and 73 percent of its oil from Russia, resulting as well
    in a huge bilateral trade deficit.  This energy dependency

    SOFIA 00000565  002 OF 002

    was brought home in December when, in a near-replay of events
    in Ukraine, Gazprom Vice Chairman Medvedev personally
    threatened Stanishev with a cut-off of Russian supplies if
    Bulgaria did not agree to renegotiate the terms of its
    current gas contract.  The crisis was eventually defused, but
    the bottom line is that Bulgaria is paying 35 percent below
    market prices for its gas, affording Moscow significant
    potential leverage over Sofia.  Helping Bulgaria to avoid
    putting all its eggs in one basket is a long-term project,
    but one in which we should remain engaged.

    EU ACCESSION AND RULE-OF-LAW PROBLEMS
    -------------------------------------

    ¶6. (C) The current government is understandably focused on
    getting into the EU on time.  Brussels is sending mixed
    signals, in part to keep Bulgaria's feet to the fire on
    reform.  Current thinking appears to be that Bulgaria will
    join the Union as scheduled, but with at least a Justice and
    Home Affairs (JHA) safeguard clause and continued EU
    monitoring in that area.  The Bulgarians are concerned by
    rumors the EU may be designing additional monitoring
    mechanisms for Bulgaria even after accession that could
    affect the flow of structural funds.  President Purvanov has
    just sent a personal plea to President Bush asking for
    support of Bulgaria's EU accession.  They will likely
    reiterate this request in their meetings with you.

    ¶7. (C) Bulgaria's problems with Brussels are primarily in the
    area of rule of law.  Successive governments have shown
    little inclination to deal forcefully with the problems of
    corruption and organized crime, preferring instead to pass
    new laws and showcase relatively minor enforcement successes.
     Your message should be that there is no daylight between the
    U.S. and the EU on this issue:  Bulgaria needs to prosecute
    organized crime bosses cum "businessmen," as well as corrupt
    politicians.  It needs to clean up its system of public
    procurement, which is plagued by kickbacks and sweetheart
    deals.  And it needs to break the dependence of political
    parties on cash financing from favor-seeking business
    interests.

    NURSES IN LIBYA, FLOODS AND KOSOVO
    ----------------------------------

    ¶8. (C) Last but not least, Bulgarians want to hear that we
    are working hard to secure the release of the five nurses
    unjustly imprisoned in Libya since 1999.  Depending on how
    the situation develops over the next week, you should also be
    prepared to express condolences for flood losses along the
    Danube.  And you should privately encourage Bulgarian leaders
    to continue playing a constructive role on the margins of the
    Kosovo final status talks by helping to build confidence
    between the two sides.  On that issue, the government seems
    to accept that Kosovo will gain its independence, but is
    concerned about a possible spill-over effect, especially in
    neighboring Macedonia.

    THE POLITICAL SCENE
    --------------------

    ¶9. (C) You will be arriving in a relatively stable political
    environment, although President Purvanov is already looking
    at nearly every issue through the lens of the November
    presidential elections.  The three-party coalition led by PM
    Stanishev has a comfortable majority in parliament.  The
    government easily survived a perfunctory vote of
    no-confidence on April 19 by a margin of 161 votes to 61.
    Events on the horizon, however, could begin to pull the
    disparate coalition partners in different directions.  These
    include the November presidential election and the conditions
    linked to EU membership.  If Bulgaria gets into the Union on
    January 1, the raison d'tre for this coalition will no
    longer be present, but inertia and the desire to avoid
    hanging separately may keep the partners together.  If
    accession is delayed, the desire to shift blame among the
    parties will exert a stronger centrifugal force.  Finally,
    the extreme nationalist Ataka party plans to protest the
    signing of the DCA during your visit.  The protests may draw
    media attention if for no other reason than that Ataka is
    such a circus, but we do not believe they can distract from
    your message.

    Beyrle

`