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### Viewing cable 09BERLIN1434, MFA STATE MINISTER HOYER DEFENDS WITHDRAWAL OF

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09BERLIN1434 | 2009-11-12 17:49 | 2011-01-20 08:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Berlin

`

    VZCZCXRO6317
    OO RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
    DE RUEHRL #1434/01 3161749
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 121749Z NOV 09
    FM AMEMBASSY BERLIN
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5753
    INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 001434

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/11/2019
    TAGS: PREL MARR MOPS NATO MNUC PARM GM RU AF
    SUBJECT: MFA STATE MINISTER HOYER DEFENDS WITHDRAWAL OF
    TACTICAL NUKES, NEW CFE INITIATIVES

    Classified By: AMBASSADOR PHILIP D. MURPHY. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D).

    ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. MFA State Minister Werner Hoyer strongly
    defended the new government's commitment to seek the
    withdrawal of all remaining nuclear weapons from Germany
    during a November 10 meeting with EUR A/S Phil Gordon and
    Ambassador Murphy, arguing that there was not one credible
    scenario in which tactical nuclear weapons could be usefully
    deployed. He emphasized the seriousness of the commitment by
    noting that it would be one of the benchmarks by which the
    government would ultimately be judged. Hoyer said equivalent
    efforts should be made on conventional arms control and to
    that end, called for more creativity in bringing the
    Russians back on board with CFE. Hoyer expected that Germany
    would increase its contributions to Afghanistan after the
    upcoming international conference, but said it was too soon
    to talk about numbers. He claimed the Dutch may take on new
    responsibilities in the north after withdrawing from Uruzgan.
    Given the strong leftward shift of the Social Democratic
    Party (SPD), Hoyer thought it was unlikely that former FM
    Steinmeier would stay on much longer as parliamentary caucus
    chairman. END SUMMARY.

    TACTICAL NUKES

    ¶2. (C) Gordon noted that up to now, FM Westerwelle had said
    all the right things about needing to go to NATO to address
    the proposal for the withdrawal of all remaining nuclear
    weapons from Germany. However, it was not clear whether
    Germany had thought through all the broader ramifications of
    its proposal. Gordon noted that the withdrawal could lead
    some to conclude that the U.S. was un-committing from
    Europe and further undermine confidence in Article 5 among
    newer NATO members. Withdrawal from Germany would also put
    other host nations in a politically difficult position,
    especially those like Turkey, who favored keeping the
    weapons. Once this becomes a public debate, no government
    may be able to withstand the pressure to have the weapons
    withdrawn.

    ¶3. (C) Hoyer responded that during the coalition
    negotiations, defenders of the status quo could not come up
    with one credible scenario in which tactical nuclear weapons
    could be usefully deployed. Therefore, he argued, the
    supposed deterrence of these weapons was meaningless. Hoyer
    insisted that he took Article 5 seriously, but thought there
    were better, more credible ways of providing the required
    deterrence. He admitted, however, that the Baltic air
    policing mission, for example, and other initiatives like it,
    had proven insufficient for the newer Allies. He
    acknowledged the large stockpile of Russian tactical nuclear
    weapons, calling them pure nonsense, but did not condition
    withdrawal of tactical nuclear weapons from Germany with
    reciprocal cuts by Russia. Hoyer said the commitment to seek
    the withdrawal of nuclear weapons was one of the top 10 to 15
    benchmarks by which the new government would ultimately be
    measured. Therefore, its importance should not be
    underestimated.

    CFE

    ¶4. (C) Hoyer thought it was important to balance nuclear arms
    control with continued efforts on the conventional side to
    avoid giving the impression that the build-up of conventional
    armaments was less important. He called for more
    creativity in finding a way out of the deadlock over the CFE
    Treaty. Toward that end, the MFA favored new initiatives
    that would force the Russians to respond and not allow them
    to continue to blame NATO for the impasse. Gordon pointed
    out that even if one were to take the Georgia issue off the
    table, the continued Russian demand for abolishing flank
    limits is unacceptable to many Allies and probably could not
    pass muster in Congress.

    EUROPEAN SECURITY TREATY AND OSCE SUMMIT

    ¶5. (C) Hoyer said that in addressing the Medvedev proposal,
    it is was important to stick to current European security
    structures, noting that without the Helsinki Process, the
    previous night's celebration of the fall of the Berlin Wall
    would have never been possible. While open to possible
    reforms of the OSCE, Hoyer shared U.S. skepticism about the
    need for a new treaty. He also agreed that an OSCE Summit
    hosted by Kazakhstan was hard to justify, given Kazakhstan's
    human rights record and the lack of substance to discuss.

    AFGHANISTAN

    ¶6. (C) Asked what the prospects were of Germany doing more in

    BERLIN 00001434 002 OF 002

    Afghanistan, Hoyer said he agreed with the U.S. approach that
    it was important to first define the objective and then
    figure out the strategy before deciding on resources. In
    this regard, Germany viewed the upcoming conference as key
    for establishing the necessary basis for the international
    community's continued engagement in Afghanistan. Hoyer said
    he expected that Germany would probably end up having to do
    some topping up in all fields, military as well as
    civilian, but it was too soon to talk about specific numbers
    yet. Based on a recent visit to the Netherlands, Hoyer was
    hopeful of getting the Dutch involved in the north of
    Afghanistan. He said they felt bad about their upcoming
    exit from Uruzgan in the south and seemed eager to do
    something to compensate for that.

    GRIM FUTURE FOR STEINMEIER

    ¶7. (C) Hoyer said that now that the Social Democrats are in
    opposition, they would forget extremely quickly what
    positions they used to support and move to the left. As a
    result, he thought it was unlikely that former FM Steinmeier
    would survive very long as the new chair of the SPD
    parliamentary caucus. The new designated party chairman and
    secretary general have completely disassociated themselves
    from the old SPD leadership and its policies. Hoyer said
    that if the new leadership stayed on its current course,
    Steinmeier, who was the SPD policy mastermind over the past
    10 years, could only stay on by repudiating almost everything
    he had stood for.
    MURPHY

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