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### Viewing cable 05WELLINGTON728, NZ ELECTIONS: THE NUMBERS BEHIND THE NUMBERS

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05WELLINGTON728 | 2005-09-21 00:32 | 2011-04-28 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Wellington

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000728

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    STATE FOR D (FRITZ), EAP/ANP, EAP/EP, EAP/RSP, INR/EAP
    NSC FOR VICTOR CAHR AND MICHAEL GREEN
    SECDEF FOR OSD/ISA LIZ PHU
    PACOM FOR J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV PREL NZ
    SUBJECT: NZ ELECTIONS: THE NUMBERS BEHIND THE NUMBERS

    ¶1. (SBU) New Zealand's September 17 election results remain
    in limbo, as 10% of absentee ballots ("special votes") remain
    to be counted and Labour and National vie for coalition
    partners.  But even though most pundits pick Labour as the
    party most likely to form a Government, Labour has taken a
    hit this election, as have center-left and most minor
    parties.  The Government has lost significant support across
    the country to a reinvigorated National Party and the newly
    formed Maori Party.  The following are some facts that shed
    light on what may be the longer-term implications of this
    election.  End summary.

    --------------------------------------------- --------
    ¶2. (U) Party Vote Performance at the Electorate Level
    --------------------------------------------- --------

    -- Labour won 40.74% of the overall party vote, versus 39.63%
    for National.  However, National led Labour in the party vote
    recorded in the 62 general electorates, receiving 41.77%
    (804,701 votes) to Labour's 39.87% (768,110 votes).  Labour
    only won the overall party vote because they picked up 64,315
    party votes in the seven Maori electorates, versus National's
    4,973.

    -- Labour gained more party vote support from the Maori
    electorates than did the Maori Party, at 64,315 and 31,657
    votes, respectively.

    -- New Zealand First garnered more party vote support in the
    Maori electorates than did National, with 7,051 and 4,973
    respectively.

    -- While urban voters have historically leaned to the left,
    center-right parties (National, New Zealand First, United
    Future, ACT) collectively edged out center-left parties
    (Labour, Greens, Maori Party, Progressives) in two of the
    four major cities.  In Auckland and Hamilton, support for the
    center right was 51.3% and 55.7% respectively versus 48.9%
    and 44.0% for the center-left.

    -- The only city where center-left support increased was
    Wellington, where center-left party vote increased from 55.1%
    in 2002 to 55.7%.  Center-left parties retained overall
    support in Christchurch, but saw a slight decrease from 54.8%
    to 53.4%.

    -- Overall, the rural vote leaned to the center-right,
    especially on the North Island, where center-right parties
    commanded 59.2% of the party vote to the center-left's 40.4%.
     On the South Island, the center-right nudged out the
    center-left 50.9% to 48.5%.

    -- With the exception of one Labour MP, the other party list
    losses (eighteen in all) came from minor parties.  (Labour
    lost one list incumbent -- Lesley Soper, whose 45th rank
    listing was insufficient to gain a seat.)  New Zealand First
    lost the most list seats at six, followed by ACT with five,
    United Future with four, the Greens with two, and the
    Progressives with one.

    -- In fourteen of the 69 electorates, the electorate winner's
    party did not win the party vote.  Seven of these electorate
    winners were from minor parties:  Maori (4), Progressives
    (1), ACT (1) and United Future (1).  Labour had the largest
    party vote in five of these seven electorates.  National won
    in more conservative-leaning Epsom and Oharui-Belmont.

    --------------------------------------------- ----------
    ¶3. (SBU) General Observations on Electorate Performance
    --------------------------------------------- ----------

    -- Labour won 45 (or 65.2%) of electorate seats in 2002,
    compared to just 31 (or 44.9%) this time.

    -- Labour and National each won 31 electorate seats.
    However, three of Labour's electorate seat wins came from the
    Maori electorates, where National did not post a candidate.

    -- National won by stronger majorities in its electorates,
    posting an average majority of 7,160 versus 5,822 for Labour
    (compared to 4,470 and 8,048 respectively in 2002).

    -- Labour's margin of victory dropped in 29 of the 31
    electorates that it won, losing 3,600 votes per electorate on
    average.  National gained in all 20 of the electorates it
    retained from 2002, gaining 5,100 votes on average.

    -- Of the 69 electorates, thirteen were won by majorities of
    less than 2,000 votes: eight of these were won by Labour vice
    four by National and one by the Maori Party.  Of electorates
    decided by 1,000 or fewer votes, three were Labour wins and
    one National.  In 2002, only six electorates were decided by
    less than 2,000 votes and two by less than 1,000 votes.

    -- National reclaimed from Labour nine electorates that have
    historically voted National or have a tendency to swing.
    National's tenth electorate gain, Napier, is a notable
    exception.  Incumbent Russell Fairbrother lost this Labour
    stronghold by 3,578 votes after winning in 2002 by 4,157.
    Labour had held the Napier electorate for over 50 years.

    -- Of those who retained their electorate seats, 30
    incumbents saw their margin of victories reduced from the
    2002 election, all but one of those were Labour seats.  Many
    of the close races involved Ministers, including Damien
    O'Conner, Ruth Dyson and Mark Burton, or up-and-coming
    figures such as party whip Darren Hughes.  Trade Minister Jim
    Sutton lost his Aoraki seat by 6,616 votes to National's Jo
    Goodhew.  Harry Duynhoven, Associate Minister of Energy and
    Transport, saw his margin of victory trimmed by more than
    10,000 votes to 4,900.  Labour up-and-comer Steve Chadwick
    also saw a significant loss in support, losing 7,200 votes to
    win by only 532.

    -- Of those who retained their electorate seats, 23
    incumbents saw their margin of victories increased since the
    2002 election; 20 increases were in National seats, two in
    Labour and one was Progressive Jim Anderton's seat of Wigram.
     National's biggest gainer was John Key, who increased his
    victory by more than 10,000 votes to 11,838.  Other big
    National winners were Judith Collins (gaining 8,563 to 11,690
    in Clevedon), Allan Peachy (7,490 to 8,697 in Tamaki) and
    Tony Ryall (gaining to 7,020 to 12,617 in Bay of Plenty).
    Progressive Jim Anderton increased his margin of victory from
    3,176 to 8,056.  Of Labour's 31 electorate incumbents, only
    Marion Hobbs and Lynne Pillay saw their votes increased this
    election.  Lynne Pillay's was the larger gain, by just 1,829
    votes.

    ----------------------------------
    ¶4. (U) Swings in Electorate Voting
    ----------------------------------

    -- Of the 69 electorates, sixteen changed hands to other
    parties this election.  Labour lost fourteen of these,
    including eleven losses by incumbents; however ten of these
    eleven incumbents (including the three ministers Jim Sutton,
    Rick Barker, and Dover Samuels) will return to Parliament
    because of a high list ranking.

    -- The fourteen electorates lost by Labour include ten
    general electorates lost to National and four Maori
    electorates lost to the Maori Party.

    -- National lost one electorate to the ACT Party, but gained
    one electorate from New Zealand First, netting a total gain
    of ten electorates.  Both the National and New Zealand First
    incumbents returned to Parliament due to a high list ranking.

    -- Though sixteen electorates changed hands, only one member
    who lost will not be returning to Parliament:  John Tamihere
    of the Labour Party.
    Burnett

`