Cable Viewer

Currently released so far... 12850 / 251,287

### Browse latest releases

2010/11 2010/12 2011/01 2011/02 2011/03 2011/04 2011/05
2010/11/28 2010/11/29 2010/11/30
2010/12/01 2010/12/02 2010/12/03 2010/12/04 2010/12/05 2010/12/06 2010/12/07 2010/12/08 2010/12/09 2010/12/10 2010/12/11 2010/12/12 2010/12/13 2010/12/14 2010/12/15 2010/12/16 2010/12/17 2010/12/18 2010/12/19 2010/12/20 2010/12/21 2010/12/22 2010/12/23 2010/12/24 2010/12/25 2010/12/26 2010/12/27 2010/12/28 2010/12/29 2010/12/30
2011/01/01 2011/01/02 2011/01/04 2011/01/05 2011/01/07 2011/01/09 2011/01/10 2011/01/11 2011/01/12 2011/01/13 2011/01/14 2011/01/15 2011/01/16 2011/01/17 2011/01/18 2011/01/19 2011/01/20 2011/01/21 2011/01/22 2011/01/23 2011/01/24 2011/01/25 2011/01/26 2011/01/27 2011/01/28 2011/01/29 2011/01/30 2011/01/31
2011/02/01 2011/02/02 2011/02/03 2011/02/04 2011/02/05 2011/02/06 2011/02/07 2011/02/08 2011/02/09 2011/02/10 2011/02/11 2011/02/12 2011/02/13 2011/02/14 2011/02/15 2011/02/16 2011/02/17 2011/02/18 2011/02/19 2011/02/20 2011/02/21 2011/02/22 2011/02/23 2011/02/24 2011/02/25 2011/02/26 2011/02/27 2011/02/28
2011/03/01 2011/03/02 2011/03/03 2011/03/04 2011/03/05 2011/03/06 2011/03/07 2011/03/08 2011/03/09 2011/03/10 2011/03/11 2011/03/13 2011/03/14 2011/03/15 2011/03/16 2011/03/17 2011/03/18 2011/03/19 2011/03/20 2011/03/21 2011/03/22 2011/03/23 2011/03/24 2011/03/25 2011/03/26 2011/03/27 2011/03/28 2011/03/29 2011/03/30 2011/03/31
2011/04/01 2011/04/02 2011/04/03 2011/04/04 2011/04/05 2011/04/06 2011/04/07 2011/04/08 2011/04/09 2011/04/10 2011/04/11 2011/04/12 2011/04/13 2011/04/14 2011/04/15 2011/04/16 2011/04/17 2011/04/18 2011/04/19 2011/04/20 2011/04/21 2011/04/22 2011/04/23 2011/04/24 2011/04/25 2011/04/26 2011/04/27 2011/04/28 2011/04/29 2011/04/30
2011/05/01 2011/05/02 2011/05/03 2011/05/04 2011/05/05 2011/05/06 2011/05/07 2011/05/08 2011/05/09 2011/05/10 2011/05/11 2011/05/12 2011/05/13 2011/05/14 2011/05/15 2011/05/16 2011/05/17 2011/05/18 2011/05/19 2011/05/20 2011/05/21 2011/05/22

### Browse by creation date

66 72 73 75 79 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 96 97 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
1966/12
1972/02 1972/08
1973/04
1975/03
1979/08
1985/03 1985/05 1985/06
1986/05
1987/06
1988/01 1988/03 1988/07
1989/12
1990/01 1990/07 1990/08 1990/10
1991/05
1992/01 1992/03 1992/06 1992/09 1992/12
1993/01 1993/10
1994/12
1996/07 1996/11
1997/06 1997/12
2000/05 2000/06 2000/09 2000/11
2001/02 2001/03 2001/06 2001/07 2001/09 2001/10 2001/11
2002/01 2002/02 2002/03 2002/04 2002/07 2002/08 2002/09 2002/11 2002/12
2003/01 2003/02 2003/03 2003/04 2003/05 2003/06 2003/07 2003/08 2003/09 2003/10 2003/11 2003/12
2004/01 2004/02 2004/03 2004/04 2004/05 2004/06 2004/07 2004/08 2004/09 2004/10 2004/11 2004/12
2005/01 2005/02 2005/03 2005/04 2005/05 2005/06 2005/07 2005/08 2005/09 2005/10 2005/11 2005/12
2006/01 2006/02 2006/03 2006/04 2006/05 2006/06 2006/07 2006/08 2006/09 2006/10 2006/11 2006/12
2007/01 2007/02 2007/03 2007/04 2007/05 2007/06 2007/07 2007/08 2007/09 2007/10 2007/11 2007/12
2008/01 2008/02 2008/03 2008/04 2008/05 2008/06 2008/07 2008/08 2008/09 2008/10 2008/11 2008/12
2009/01 2009/02 2009/03 2009/04 2009/05 2009/06 2009/07 2009/08 2009/09 2009/10 2009/11 2009/12
2010/01 2010/02

### Browse by origin

A B C D F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W Y Z
Embassy Athens Embassy Asuncion Embassy Astana Embassy Asmara Embassy Ashgabat Embassy Apia Embassy Ankara Embassy Amman Embassy Algiers Embassy Addis Ababa Embassy Accra Embassy Abuja Embassy Abu Dhabi Embassy Abidjan Consulate Auckland Consulate Amsterdam Consulate Adana American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura Embassy Buenos Aires Embassy Budapest Embassy Bucharest Embassy Brussels Embassy Bridgetown Embassy Bratislava Embassy Brasilia Embassy Bogota Embassy Bishkek Embassy Bern Embassy Berlin Embassy Belmopan Embassy Belgrade Embassy Beirut Embassy Beijing Embassy Banjul Embassy Bangkok Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan Embassy Bamako Embassy Baku Embassy Baghdad Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen Embassy Conakry Embassy Colombo Embassy Chisinau Embassy Caracas Embassy Canberra Embassy Cairo Consulate Curacao Consulate Ciudad Juarez Consulate Chennai Consulate Casablanca Consulate Cape Town Consulate Calgary
Embassy Dushanbe Embassy Dublin Embassy Doha Embassy Djibouti Embassy Dili Embassy Dhaka Embassy Dar Es Salaam Embassy Damascus Embassy Dakar Consulate Dubai
Embassy Freetown Consulate Fukuoka
Embassy Guatemala Embassy Gaborone Consulate Guayaquil Consulate Guadalajara
Embassy Helsinki Embassy Harare Embassy Hanoi Consulate Ho Chi Minh City Consulate Hermosillo Consulate Hamilton Consulate Hamburg Consulate Halifax
Iran RPO Dubai Embassy Islamabad Consulate Istanbul
Embassy Jakarta Consulate Jerusalem Consulate Jeddah
Embassy Kyiv Embassy Kuwait Embassy Kuala Lumpur Embassy Kinshasa Embassy Kingston Embassy Kigali Embassy Khartoum Embassy Kathmandu Embassy Kampala Embassy Kabul Consulate Kolkata Consulate Karachi
Embassy Luxembourg Embassy Luanda Embassy London Embassy Ljubljana Embassy Lisbon Embassy Lima Embassy Lilongwe Embassy La Paz Consulate Lahore Consulate Lagos
Mission USOSCE Mission USNATO Mission UNESCO Embassy Muscat Embassy Moscow Embassy Montevideo Embassy Monrovia Embassy Minsk Embassy Mexico Embassy Mbabane Embassy Maputo Embassy Manila Embassy Manama Embassy Managua Embassy Malabo Embassy Madrid Consulate Munich Consulate Mumbai Consulate Montreal Consulate Monterrey Consulate Milan Consulate Melbourne
Embassy Nicosia Embassy Niamey Embassy New Delhi Embassy Ndjamena Embassy Nassau Embassy Nairobi Consulate Naples Consulate Naha
Embassy Ouagadougou Embassy Ottawa Embassy Oslo
Embassy Pristina Embassy Pretoria Embassy Prague Embassy Port Of Spain Embassy Port Louis Embassy Port Au Prince Embassy Phnom Penh Embassy Paris Embassy Paramaribo Embassy Panama Consulate Peshawar
Embassy Quito Consulate Quebec
REO Basrah Embassy Rome Embassy Riyadh Embassy Riga Embassy Reykjavik Embassy Rangoon Embassy Rabat Consulate Rio De Janeiro Consulate Recife
Secretary of State Embassy Suva Embassy Stockholm Embassy Sofia Embassy Skopje Embassy Singapore Embassy Seoul Embassy Sarajevo Embassy Santo Domingo Embassy Santiago Embassy Sanaa Embassy San Salvador Embassy San Jose Consulate Strasbourg Consulate St Petersburg Consulate Shenyang Consulate Shanghai Consulate Sapporo Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis Embassy Tripoli Embassy Tokyo Embassy The Hague Embassy Tel Aviv Embassy Tehran Embassy Tegucigalpa Embassy Tbilisi Embassy Tashkent Embassy Tallinn Consulate Toronto Consulate Tijuana
USUN New York USEU Brussels US Office Almaty US Mission Geneva US Interests Section Havana US Delegation, Secretary UNVIE Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Embassy Vilnius Embassy Vienna Embassy Vatican Embassy Valletta Consulate Vladivostok Consulate Vancouver
Embassy Windhoek Embassy Wellington Embassy Warsaw
Embassy Yerevan Embassy Yaounde
Embassy Zagreb

### Browse by tag

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
AE AEMR AORC APER AR AF ASEC AG AFIN AMGT APECO AS AMED AER ADCO AVERY AU AM APEC ABUD AGRICULTURE ASEAN ACOA AJ AO ABLD ADPM AY ASCH AFFAIRS AA AC ARF AFU AFGHANISTAN AINF AODE AMG ATPDEA AGAO ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG AID AL AORL ADM AFSI AFSN ASUP AN AIT ANET ASIG AGMT ADANA AADP ACS AGR AMCHAMS AECL ACAO AUC AND ATRN ALOW APCS AORG AROC ACABQ AX AMEX AZ ARM AQ ATFN AMBASSADOR ACBAQ ASEX
BR BA BRUSSELS BG BEXP BO BM BBSR BU BL BK BT BD BMGT BY BX BTIO BB BH BF BP BWC BN BTIU BIDEN BE BILAT BC
CA CJAN CASC CS CO CH CI CD CVIS CR CU CN CY CONDOLEEZZA CE CG CMGT CF CPAS CDC CW CJUS CTM CM CFED CODEL CWC CBW CAN CLMT CBC CONS COUNTERTERRORISM CIA CDG CIC COUNTER CT CNARC CACM CB CV CIDA CLINTON CHR COE CIS CBSA CEUDA CAC CL CACS CAPC COM CARSON CTR CROS COPUOS CICTE CYPRUS COUNTRY CBE CKGR CVR CITEL CLEARANCE CARICOM CSW CITT CDB
DS DJ DEFENSE DR DA DTRA DEA DHS DO DEAX DAO DCM DE DOD DOMESTIC DK DPRK DEPT DISENGAGEMENT DOE
ECON EAID EINV EFIN EG EAIR EU EC ENRG EPET EAGR ELAB ETTC ELTN EWWT ETRD EUN ER ECIN EMIN EIND ECPS EZ EN ECA ET EFIS ENGR EINVETC ECONCS ES EI ECONOMIC ELN EINT EPA ETRA EXTERNAL ESA ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS EAIG EUR EK EUMEM EUREM EUC ENERG ERD EFTA ETRC ETRN EINVECONSENVCSJA EEPET EUNCH ESENV ENNP ENVI ECINECONCS ELECTIONS ENVR ENIV ETRO ETRDECONWTOCS ECUN EXIM EFINECONCS ERNG ECONOMY EINVEFIN ETC EAP EINN EXBS ENGY ECONOMICS EIAR EINDETRD ECONEFIN EURN EDU ETRDEINVTINTCS ECIP EFIM EAIDS EREL
FJ FI FR FTA FTAA FBI FAC FM FREEDOM FDA FARC FAO FO FOR FMLN FISO FAS FOREIGN FINANCE FINR FOI
GM GG GLOBAL GR GV GA GE GH GTIP GT GZ GAERC GOI GCC GOV GY GANGS GERARD GTMO GL GF GAZA
HUMAN HO HA HK HR HU HURI HILLARY HYMPSK HSTC HEBRON HUMOR HI
IC IR IN IT ICAO IS IZ IAEA IV IIP ICRC IWC IRS IQ IMO ILC IMF ILO IF ITPHUM IL IO ID ISRAEL IACI INMARSAT IRAQI IPR ICTY ICJ INDO IA IDA IBRD IAHRC ISLAMISTS IGAD ITU ITF INRA INRO INRB ITALY IBET INTELSAT ISRAELI IDP ICTR ITRA IRC IEFIN ITPGOV ITALIAN INTERNAL INTERPOL IEA INR IZPREL IRAJ
JA JP JO JM JOSEPH JUS JAMES JOHN JOHNNIE
KPAO KCOR KCRM KSCA KTFN KU KDEM KNNP KJUS KWMN KTIP KPAL KPKO KWWMN KWBG KISL KN KGHG KOMC KSTC KIPR KFLU KIDE KSAF KSEO KBIO KHLS KAWC KUNR KIRF KGIC KRAD KV KGIT KZ KE KCIP KTIA KFRD KHDP KSEP KMPI KG KMDR KTDB KS KSPR KHIV KCOM KAID KOM KRVC KICC KBTS KSUM KOLY KIRC KDRG KCRS KNPP KSTH KWNM KRFD KVIR KLIG KFLO KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KVPR KTEX KTER KRGY KCFE KREC KR KPAONZ KIFR KOCI KBTR KMCA KGCC KACT KMRS KAWK KSAC KWMNCS KNEI KPOA KFIN KWAC KNAR KPLS KPAK KSCI KPRP KOMS KBCT KPWR KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KRIM KDDG KPRV KCGC KPAI KFSC KMFO KID KMIG KVRP KNSD KMOC KTBT KHSA KENV KCMR KWMM KO KX KCRCM KNUP KNUC KNNPMNUC KERG KTLA KCSY KTRD KJUST KRCM KCFC KCHG KREL KFTFN KDEMAF KICA KHUM KSEC KPIN KESS KDEV
LY LE LG LH LABOR LI LO LA LU LOG LTTE LAB LT
MX MARR MTCRE MNUC MASS MOPS MCAP MO MA MR MAPS MD MV MY MP ML MILITARY MEPN MARAD MDC MU MEPP MIL MAPP MZ MT MASSMNUC MK MTCR MUCN MAS MEDIA MAR MI MQADHAFI MPOS MG MPS MW MC MASC MTRE MRCRE MOPPS MTS MLS MILI MEPI MEETINGS MERCOSUR MCC MIK
NZ NL NATO NU NI NG NO NP NK NDP NPT NSF NR NAFTA NATOPREL NS NEW NA NE NSSP NSC NH NV NPA NSFO NT NW NASA NSG NORAD NATIONAL NPG NGO NIPP NZUS NC NRR NAR
OTRA OREP OPIC OIIP OAS OVIP OEXC ODIP OFDP OPDC OPRC OSCE OECD OPCW OSCI OMIG OVP OIE ON OCII OPAD OBSP OFFICIALS OES OCS OIC OHUM OTR OSAC OFDA
PGOV PREL PHUM PTER PINR PK PINS PARM PA PHALANAGE PARTY PROP PM PBTS PDEM PECON PL PE PREF PO POL PSOE PHSA PAK PY PLN PMAR PHUH PBIO PF PHUS PTBS PU PNAT POLITICAL PARTIES PCUL PGGV PAO PSA PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA PAS PGIV PHUMPREL POGOV PEL PP PINL PBT PG PINF PRL PALESTINIAN PSEPC POSTS PDOV PAHO PROV PHUMPGOV POV PMIL PGOC PRAM PNR PCI PREO POLITICS POLICY PREFA PSI PAIGH PJUS PARMS PROG PTERE PRGOV PORG PS PGOF PKFK PEPR PPA PINT PRELP PNG PFOR PUNE PGOVLO PHUMBA POLINT PGOVE
QA
RIGHTS RU RS RW RIGHTSPOLMIL RICE RUPREL RO RF RELATIONS RP RM RFE REGION REACTION REPORT RCMP RSO ROOD ROBERT RSP
SA SNAR SOCI SENV SZ SP SO SU SF SW SY SMIG SCUL SL SENVKGHG SR SN SARS SANC SHI SIPDIS SEVN SHUM SC SI STEINBERG SK SH SNARCS SPCE SNARN SG SNARIZ SWE SIPRS SYR SYRIA SAARC SEN SCRS SAN ST SSA SPCVIS SOFA
TPHY TSPL TS TRGY TU TI TBIO TH TP TZ TW TX TSPA TFIN TC TAGS TK TIP TNGD TL TV TT TINT TERRORISM TR TN TD TBID TF THPY TO TRSY TURKEY
USEU UK UG UNGA UN UNSC US UZ UY UNHRC UNESCO USTR UNDP UP UNMIK UNEP UNO UNHCR UNAUS UNCHR UNPUOS UNDC UNICEF UNCHC UNCSD USOAS UNFCYP UNIDROIT UV UNCND USNC USUN USPS USAID UE UNVIE UAE UNODC UNCHS UNFICYP UNDESCO UNC
VE VZ VT VM VAT VC VI VTPREL VN VTIZ VTEG
WHO WWARD WTRO WS WHA WIPO WEU WZ WHTI WTO WMO WA WTRQ WBG WFP WB WI WMD WITH
XM XL XV XW XS XA XR XG XB XF XD XK XY XC XZ XX XU XI XT XH XQ XE XTAG
YM YI YE YMCS
ZI ZU ZF ZR ZK ZANU ZB ZEALAND ZP ZO ZL ZOELLICK ZJ ZN ZA

### Browse by classification

CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN SECRET SECRET//NOFORN UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

### Community resources

Follow us on Twitter Check our Reddit Twitter this Digg this page Contact us on IRC

courage is contagious

### Viewing cable 09ASMARA80, IS ERITREA UNRAVELING?

If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:

- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.

To understand the justification used for the classification of each cable, please use this WikiSource article as reference.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #09ASMARA80.

Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09ASMARA80 | 2009-03-05 13:21 | 2010-12-15 21:30 | SECRET | Embassy Asmara

`

    P 051321Z MAR 09
    FM AMEMBASSY ASMARA
    TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0206
    INFO IGAD COLLECTIVE
    CIA WASHDC
    DIA WASHDC
    NSC WASHDC
    SECDEF WASHDC
    CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
    JICCENT MACDILL AFB FL
    CJTF-HOA J2X CAMP LEMONIER DJ
    HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
    COMUSNAVCENT

` `

    Thursday, 05 March 2009, 13:21
    S E C R E T ASMARA 000080
    DEPARTMENT FOR AF/EX AND AF/E
    EO 12958 DECL: 03/04/2019
    TAGS PGOV, PREL, ECON, PINR, ER
    SUBJECT: IS ERITREA UNRAVELING?
    REF: ADDIS ABABA 567
    Classified By: Ambassador Ronald K. McMullen for reason 1.4(d)

    ¶1. (S) Summary: Young Eritreans are fleeing their country in droves, the economy appears to be in a death spiral, Eritrea’s prisons are overflowing, and the country’s unhinged dictator remains cruel and defiant. Is the country “on the brink of disaster” as posited by Eritrea’s first cousins across the border in Tigray, Ethiopia (ref)? Party leaders tell us their Leninist “war economy” will be reversed, while Asmara is abuzz with reports of multiple cabinet-level changes. However, tinkering at the margins of governance will count for naught as long as the Isaias regime remains a one-man band. Gold mining will not provide the anticipated economic panacea. Although the regime is one bullet away from implosion, Eritrea’s resilience as a country is based on 1) a strong sense of nationalism forged over four decades of war, and 2) the capacity of most Eritreans to withstand suffering and deprivation with forbearance and toughness. Any sudden change in government is likely to be initiated from within the military. End Summary.

    ¶2. (S) The Regime’s Political Capital is Tanking
    --------------------------------------------- ---
    Isaias’ popularity stemmed from his leading role in Eritrea’s Davidic victory in the thirty-year struggle for independence.  Immediately after liberation, Isaias seemed to be providing (like Mugabe) reasonably good governance to his traumatized nation. The accelerating decline into dictatorship began in 1996 with an alleged assassination attempt against Isaias by Ethiopian PM Meles Zenawi, followed by the bloody 1998-2000 Border War, and the “treason” of the inner-circle critics called the G-15. Severe persecution of any potential opposition increased. With half of Eritrea’s population being born after liberation, Isaias’ Struggle credentials are less important than before; youth today face a hopeless future of open-ended National Service at survival-level wages. Hope for a better future fueled Eritrean resistance for a whole generation; the country’s reservoir of hope is now largely depleted.

    ¶3. (S) The War Economy is Failing
    ---------------------------------
    Hagos Ghebrehiwet, as the Economic Director of the Peoples Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ), is the architect of the regime’s failed economic policies. When previously asked by the ambassador if he was a Communist, Hagos replied, “No. Quite the opposite.” He explained that from 1993-98 development of the tiny private sector was a top goal, but with the outbreak of war in 1998 “national security became the economic and political imperative.” He contends that the subsequent “no peace, no war” situation with Ethiopia obligated the state to maintain the economy on a war footing, due to shortages of hard currency. Hagos told the ambassador in mid-February that the regime was reversing its war economy policies. “We are going back to the immediate post-independence approach,” he claimed. NOTE: Post has seen no indication of this. END NOTE.

    ¶4. (C) Gold To the Rescue? No
    ------------------------------
    Many Eritrean businessmen and officials hope, and opposition members fear, that come 2010, gold mining will provide the economic fillip needed to rescue the economy and the regime. Mining company executives tell us these hopes and fears are grossly misplaced. Nevsun is the Canadian company leading the development of the large Bisha gold, copper, and zinc field. Nevsun employees say Bisha is like Neapolitan ice cream, with a thin layer of gold atop thicker layers of copper and zinc. Nevsun’s agreement is heavily front-loaded for cost recovery, meaning for the first two years (the life of the gold extraction) almost all revenues will accrue to Nevsun for capital and infrastructure costs. The gold will be flown from Bisha directly to Switzerland. While the government will get some revenues from taxes and royalties, it is only with the beginning of copper extraction in 2012 or 2013 and zinc five years later that the government of Eritrea will see much return on its investment. In short, there is no help on the immediate horizon for Eritrea’s faltering economy.

    ¶5. (C) No American Enemy to Blame
    ---------------------------------
    Prior to January 20 every bad thing in Eritrea was touted as proof of an American-led conspiracy against Eritrea. Daily anti-American diatribes peppered the regime-controlled airwaves and print media. The regime attempted to deflect all complaints by claiming America and its puppet, Ethiopia, were an immediate threat to Eritrea’s sovereignty and/or territorial integrity. Criticism of the regime was thus tantamount not only to sedition, but also to treason. Since January 20 the regime has been on what it considers a charm offensive with the U.S. in hopes that the Obama administration will for some reason reverse USG opposition to the regime’s regional meddling and domestic oppression. Without the “world’s sole superpower” being constantly blamed for all of Eritrea’s woes, Eritreans seem to be focusing more on their own government’s manifest shortcomings. Grumblings are increasingly loud and frequent, but still only in private.

    ¶6. (C) Tough, Proud, and Suffering
    ----------------------------------
    Around 80% of Eritreans live on farms or in small villages. Many are only marginally involved in the monetized economy and produce part of what their families need to survive. Governmental benign neglect would be a positive and welcome change. The regime’s practice of seizing crops or forcing farmers to sell grain at below-market prices has caused families to attempt to withdraw from the monetized economy, at least in part, although the Isaias regime is very good at controlling nearly all aspects of Eritrean society. Eritrean farmers have long lived a knife-edge existence due to marginal rainfall, decades of war and brigandage, and the use of Dark Age technology. Even before last year’s dreadful harvest, UNICEF reckoned that 40% of Eritrean children were malnourished. Despite this, Eritreans remain fiercely patriotic. In the face of deprivation and oppression, the time-tested best practice is to shut up, hunker down, and pray for rain.

    ¶7. (S) Where Will Change Come From?
    ------------------------------------
    In hushed tones, Asmarinos are discussing reports of wholesale changes in the cabinet and other senior civilian positions. From what we understand, the exercise (septel) will be a grand round of musical chairs, with former fighters loyal to President Isaias mostly swapping ministerial portfolios. Meanwhile, the urban population remains largely cowed. The PFDJ’s Secretary General languishes in medical exile in UAE; Isaias chairs the party’s monthly meetings in his absence. Neither the government, party, nor populace seem to have the wherewithal to effect a sudden change in government. The military does. We’ve heard increasingly frequent and specific reports of mutinous behavior from within the military, sparked by growing numbers of troops deserting across the border into Sudan and even into Ethiopia. The mantle of Eritrean nationalism could conceivably pass from the shoulders of Isaias Afwerki to the Eritrean Defense Force. Defense Minister Sebhat Efrem probably has the standing to paper over the rivalries of the senior generals (at least temporarily), should the military or a faction of it suddenly find the need to step in to “save the revolution.”
    MCMULLEN

`