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### Viewing cable 09ISLAMABAD478, NEW WAZIRISTAN TERRORIST ALLIANCE

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09ISLAMABAD478 | 2009-03-04 14:21 | 2010-11-30 21:30 | SECRET//NOFORN | Embassy Islamabad

`

    P 041421Z MAR 09
    FM AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD
    TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1740
    INFO AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY
    AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY
    AMCONSUL PESHAWAR PRIORITY
    AMCONSUL KARACHI PRIORITY
    AMCONSUL LAHORE PRIORITY
    USCINCCENT MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
    CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
    JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY

` `

    S E C R E T ISLAMABAD 000478

    NOFORN

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/04/2034
    TAGS: PREL PTER PK
    SUBJECT: NEW WAZIRISTAN TERRORIST ALLIANCE

    Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

    ¶1. (S/NF) Summary: Rival Pakistani Taliban leaders Baitullah
    Mehsud, Maulvi Nazir, and Hafiz Gul Bahadur formed a new
    militant alliance on February 23. The new alliance
    recognizes Taliban leader Mullah Omar as its leader, and its
    goal is to fight the planned U.S. troop surge in Afghanistan.
    The Pakistani militant leaders will maintain their
    independent militants groups but will now facilitate
    cooperation in cross-border attacks in Afghanistan. It is
    too early to say how effective this new alliance will be in
    launching cross-border attacks against U.S./NATO forces in
    Afghanistan, but it does give the largest and most powerful
    Pakistani Taliban leaders unfettered access across North and
    South Waziristan. Formation of the alliance demonstrates
    that the GOP's tribal "divide and conquer" strategy is not
    working, at least not to our advantage. Civilian leaders are
    concerned about the continuing loss of government writ in the
    Waziristans after this agreement, but Pakistan's security
    forces may see few downsides to an alliance that focuses its
    attacks outside of Pakistan. End summary.

    ¶2. (SBU) On February 23, Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP) leader
    Baitullah Mehsud signed a deal with two powerful rival
    Taliban commanders Maulvi Nazir of South Waziristan and Hafiz
    Gul Bahadur of North Waziristan. The three, according to
    press reports, have formed a new group called Shura
    Ittihad-ul-Mujahideen (Mujahideen Unity Council), that they
    claim will unite them against external forces trying to
    divide the multiple Taliban groups based in Pakistan. They
    have formed a 13-member shura to run the affairs of the new
    alliance. The militants named Mullah Omar as their supreme
    leader, but the group did not choose a leader of its
    operational shura. According to a joint public statement,
    the militant leaders praised Osama Bin Laden and Mullah Omar
    as defenders of Islam and Muslims. The spokesman for
    Baitullah Mehsud, Mufti Waliullah, said that the three
    Taliban commanders would now operate from a single platform
    under the new alliance. Currently Baitullah Mehsud controls
    the eastern portion of South Waziristan, which is populated
    largely by Mehsud tribesmen. Maulvi Nazir is based out of
    the Ahmedzai Wazir area of South Waziristan on the agency's
    western border with Afghanistan. Hafiz Gul Bahadur leads his
    Utmanzai Wazir militants from Miram Shah, North Waziristan.

    ¶3. (C) The formation of the new alliance follows Baitullah
    Mehsud's December 2007 formation of TTP as an umbrella group
    to better coordinate pro-Taliban activities. The creation of
    the TTP was the merger of various Pakistani militant groups
    operating under disparate commands in different tribal
    agencies. The TTP alliance runs as a loose federation rather
    than a strictly controlled organization. Each of the
    militant leaders maintains a degree of autonomy and Baitullah
    Mehsud, as the strongest leader of Pakistani Taliban, lends
    his support and coordination to the various TTP subcommanders
    in places such as Bajaur and Swat. Nazir, who broke openly
    with Mehsud in the spring of 2007 (see para 6), was not a
    part of TTP. Bahadur, who had jockeyed with Mehsud for the
    title of pre-eminent local militant leader in the
    Waziristans, had maintained some distance from the TTP label
    before now.

    ¶4. (C) The new Mujahideen Unity Council will likely be
    another loose federation with each Taliban commander
    maintaining his own authority. Federally Administered Tribal
    Areas (FATA) Secretariat Additional Chief Secretary
    Habibullah Khan expressed concern to Peshawar Principal
    Officer in a February 24 meeting that this new body provides
    all three militant leaders with unfettered access to all of
    South and North Waziristan. Baitullah Mehsud will be a main
    beneficiary of this new access, giving his fighters easier
    entry to the Afghanistan border through Maulvi Nazir's
    Wazir-held territory. Before the deal, Mehsud had limited
    access to the border from his portion of South Waziristan
    because he was blocked either by Maulvi Nazir or Gul Bahadur.
    While the alliance will not work as a tight top-down
    militant organization, it will facilitate access and
    coordination of various Pakistani Taliban as they cross into
    Afghanistan.

    ¶5. (C) While Khan had no hard facts, he detected the hand of
    the Haqqani network in bringing these rival commanders
    together. The new coordination, he feared, will allow the
    Taliban to focus on sending militants across the border into
    Afghanistan. Sirajuddin Haqqani also claimed in the press
    that he had convinced the three rival Taliban leaders to
    meet. Sirajuddin and his father Jalaluddin Haqqani lead much
    of the Taliban militancy in eastern Afghanistan. Sirajuddin
    often travels to the tribal areas of Pakistan, North
    Waziristan in particular, and has served as a mediator
    between these rival Taliban leaders.

    ¶6. (S/NF) In the past, the Pakistani government has supported
    Maulvi Nazir in an attempt to counter Baitullah Mehsud in
    South Waziristan. In the spring of 2007, an open break
    between Nazir and Mehsud took place over the presence of
    "Uzbek" fighters in South Waziristan. The disagreement
    culminated in an operation in which Pakistani security forces
    fought alongside Nazir's followers to oust Uzbeks from the
    area. While Nazir appeared to draw on genuine local anger
    and desire to remove "Uzbeks," his activities as an al-Qaida
    facilitator and promoter of cross-border attacks have always
    complicated Pakistani efforts to sell this episode as a
    "success" story. A South Waziristan-based contact told
    Principal Officer Peshawar on February 24 that Mehsud and
    Nazir are showing signs of getting past old disagreements and
    that "Uzbeks" are re-appearing in growing numbers in the
    area.

    ¶7. (SBU) According to Pakistani newspapers, Ahmedzai Wazir
    elders of South Waziristan, who are concerned about the new
    alliance and the possibility of "Uzbeks" coming back into
    their territory, questioned Maulvi Nazir about the deal with
    rival Mehsud. At a meeting in Wana, South Waziristan Maulvi
    Nazir assured the elders that each militant group will
    continue to have its own independent status and remain
    sovereign in their own territory. Nazir explained that the
    alliance was formed "only to act together against the United
    States" because the Taliban was concerned about the troop
    surge in Afghanistan, according to Pakistan press reports.
    The elders publicly cautioned Nazir that they would turn
    against him if this new deal brought any harm to their areas.

    ¶8. (C) While he did not touch on a possible ISI role in
    brokering this new alliance, Habibullah Khan noted that
    pressure has been building on the Pakistani military in the
    Waziristans. The Pakistani military and then Northwest
    Frontier Province Governor Orakzai quietly entered peace
    deals with North Waziristan commanders in December 2007 and
    with Baitullah Mehsud in February 2008 in order to achieve
    relative peace. Those agreements came after a series of high
    profile attacks on the military in the Waziristans, including
    the kidnapping of over 250 security forces by Baitullah
    Mehsud and Jan 2008 fighting at Ladha Fort in South
    Waziristan. While violence directed at the military in the
    Waziristans has been minor in the last few months, Peshawar
    observers regularly note that the military remains concerned
    with its ability to keep a lid on trouble in these two
    agencies. Chief of Army Staff General Kayani believes the
    respite offered by this latest agreement is necessary for his
    stretched forces to continue fighting in Bajaur and Mohmand
    agencies. However, the relative quiet in South and North
    Waziristan has allowed Baitullah Mehsud to increasingly send
    his fighters in other parts of the FATA and Northwest
    Frontier Province, including Swat.

    ¶9. (C) Khan also noted with deep dismay that this
    announcement demonstrates that these militant commanders see
    themselves in a strong enough position to form an alliance
    that takes them one step closer to a formal territorial
    takeover of the Waziristan as an "Islamic Emirate." South
    Waziristan contacts also commented that there is an
    increasing presence of Punjabi militants from Jaish-e
    Muhammad in the Mehsud areas of South Waziristan. (Comment:
    A development if accurate that is almost certainly of concern
    to the Pakistani military. It is significant that Baitullah
    Mehsud's strength and open militancy are drawing fighters
    from places such as southern Punjab.)

    ¶10. (C) As this new alliance formed, Mullah Omar ordered
    militants in North and South Waziristan to immediately stop
    their attacks on Pakistani security forces, according to
    press reports. Omar said in a letter to the militants, "If
    anybody really wants to wage jihad, they must fight the U.S.
    and NATO troops inside Afghanistan." The letter also stated
    that Omar was responsible for the agreement between Mehsud,
    Nazir, and Bahadur, and that after this agreement "the
    attacks on Pakistani security forces by the local Taliban
    will decrease if not end completely." Mullah Omar continues
    to exert considerable influence on the militants in South and
    North Waziristan. Halting attacks against Pakistani forces
    may increase the militants' safe haven space in Pakistan,
    allowing the militants to cross the border to attack NATO
    forces in Afghanistan.

    ¶11. (C) Comment: It is too early to predict how effective
    this new alliance will be in launching cross-border attacks
    on U.S./NATO forces, but its formation will provide the group
    with unfettered access to Afghanistan across North and South
    Waziristan. It is another indication that the GOP's tribal
    divide and conquer strategy against militants is not working,
    at least not to our advantage. Pakistan's security forces,
    however, may see limited downsides to an arrangement that
    focuses militant attacks outside of Pakistan.

`