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### Viewing cable 01PARIS11204, FRENCH VIEWS OF AFGHANISTAN'S POLITICAL FUTURE

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
01PARIS11204 | 2001-10-16 05:12 | 2011-01-21 16:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Paris

`

    O 160512Z OCT 01
    FM AMEMBASSY PARIS
    TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9246
    INFO ALL EUROPEAN UNION POST COLLECTIVE
    AMEMBASSY ALMATY
    AMEMBASSY ANKARA
    AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT
    AMEMBASSY BEIJING
    AMEMBASSY BERLIN
    AMEMBASSY BISHKEK
    AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
    AMEMBASSY DOHA
    AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE SUSTEL
    AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD
    AMEMBASSY LONDON
    AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
    AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
    AMEMBASSY RIYADH
    AMEMBASSY ROME
    AMEMBASSY TASHKENT
    AMEMBASSY TOKYO
    USEU BRUSSELS
    USMISSION USNATO
    USMISSION USUN NEW YORK

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 011204

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2011
    TAGS: AF FR PK PREL
    SUBJECT: FRENCH VIEWS OF AFGHANISTAN'S POLITICAL FUTURE

    REF: STATE 176819

    CLASSIFIED BY: CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR SHARON WIENER
    FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D).

    ¶1. (C) WE DELIVERED REFTEL POINTS TO FOREIGN MINISTER
    VEDRINE'S OFFICE AND TO MFA AFGHAN DESK OFFICER BRUCE BOURDON
    ON OCTOBER 11 AND FOLLOWED-UP WITH A MEETING WITH BOURDON ON
    OCTOBER 12. BOURDON TOLD US THAT THE FRENCH WERE ENGAGED IN
    DISCUSSIONS WITH THEIR EU PARTNERS REGARDING AFGHANISTAN'S
    POLITICAL FUTURE. HE NOTED THESE DISCUSSIONS HAD BEEN
    STIMULATED IN PART BY FOREIGN MINISTER HUBERT VEDRINE'S
    ACTION PLAN FOR AFGHANISTAN. HOWEVER, HE ADDED THAT THE
    FRENCH HAVE NOT YET RECEIVED ANY SPECIFIC COMMENTS,
    DOCUMENTS, OR PROPOSALS ABOUT WHERE TO GO NEXT IN AFGHANISTAN
    FROM THEIR EU PARTNERS. BOURDON SAID THIS LACK OF RESPONSE
    WAS PROBABLY DUE TO SEVERAL FACTORS: INSUFFICIENT TIME TO
    RESPOND, UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE DIRECTION THE WAR IN
    AFGHANISTAN WOULD TAKE, AND, THE CURRENT HEAVY TRAVEL
    SCHEDULE OF SENIOR MFA OFFICIALS. BOURDON NOTED VEDRINE WAS
    VISITING ROME WHERE HE WILL BE MEETING WITH FORMER KING
    MOHAMMED ZAHIR SHAH, WHILE THE MFA'S DIRECTOR FOR ASIA,
    DOMINIQUE GIRARD, IS VISITING WASHINGTON. TONGUE IN CHEEK,
    BOURDON COMMENTED THAT GIVEN GIRARD'S VISIT TO WASHINGTON, IT
    WAS LIKELY THE U.S. GOVERNMENT WOULD KNOW MORE ABOUT FRANCE'S
    POSITION ON AFGHANISTAN THAN HE WOULD. BOURDON, HOWEVER,
    MADE CLEAR THAT IN TRYING TO DEVELOP A POSITION ON
    AFGHANISTAN'S POLITICAL FUTURE, FRANCE WAS PAYING PARTICULAR
    ATTENTION TO THE OPINIONS OF THE GERMANS, BRITISH, AND
    ITALIANS. THE FRENCH WILL LISTEN POLITELY TO OTHER EU
    MEMBERS, BUT IT IS THOSE THREE COUNTRIES WHO ARE MOST
    INVOLVED IN THE CRISIS AND CONTRIBUTING THE MOST FINANCIALLY.

    ¶2. (C) BOURDON SAID HE DID NOT EXPECT ANYONE TO BE ABLE TO
    DEVELOP A COHERENT POSITION UNTIL THE COURSE OF THE WAR IN
    AFGHANISTAN BECAME A BIT CLEARER. HE EXPLAINED THAT THE
    FRENCH WERE WATCHING DEVELOPMENTS CLOSELY TO SEE WHETHER THE
    TALIBAN COLLAPSED OR IF THEY WOULD BE ABLE TO HANG ON TO
    POWER FOR SOME TIME. WHILE THE FRENCH HOPE FOR A QUICK
    COLLAPSE AND A RAPID CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES, THERE IS SOME
    CONCERN THAT IN A WORST CASE, THE CONFLICT COULD DRAG ON
    THROUGH THE END OF THIS YEAR AND WELL INTO 2002. BOURDON
    NOTED THE FRENCH WERE ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON PAKISTANI
    BEHAVIOR TOWARDS AFGHANISTAN AND THE TALIBAN. HE EXPLAINED
    THAT THE FRENCH WERE UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE GOVERNMENT OF
    PAKISTAN WOULD ALLOW THE TALIBAN TO CRUMBLE, OR WHETHER THE
    GOP, OR A ROGUE ELEMENT OF THE GOP, WOULD FIND SOME MEANS TO
    PROVIDE COVERT SUPPORT TO THE TALIBAN. UNSURE ABOUT WHAT
    COMES NEXT, THE FRENCH NEVERTHELESS BELIEVE THE GOP NEEDS TO
    BE INVOLVED IN DECISIONS RELATING TO AFGHANISTAN'S FUTURE AND
    THAT IT IS CRUCIAL TO FIND AFGHAN PASHTUNS WHO CAN PLAY A
    PROMINENT ROLE.

    ¶3. (C) BOURDON SAID THE FRENCH BELIEVED FORMER KING
    MOHAMMED ZAHIR SHAH WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO PLAY A VERY LIMITED
    ROLE. HE MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE THE IMPETUS TO START A
    DIALOGUE, LOYA JIRGA, BUT HE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO DO THINGS
    HIMSELF. THE FRENCH ALSO BELIEVE WE, WESTERN COUNTRIES,
    SHOULD BE CAREFUL TO NOT TRY TO IMPOSE ANY DECISIONS FROM THE
    OUTSIDE. THERE MIGHT BE A SMALL SUPERVISORY ROLE FOR THE
    UNITED NATIONS, BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY EFFORT TO DEPLOY
    A LARGER-SCALE UN MISSION A LA KOSOVO OR EAST TIMOR. A LARGE
    UN MISSION SIMPLY WOULD NOT WORK AND IT WOULD QUICKLY BECOME
    IMPOSSIBLE TO PROVIDE ANY KIND OF SECURITY FOR A LARGE UN
    MISSION. THE FRENCH SEE THE UN'S ROLE AS MINIMAL, SIMPLY
    BEING A PRESENCE TO URGE FOLLOW-UP TO DECISIONS MADE BY
    AFGHANS.

    ¶4. (C) WHEN ASKED ABOUT VEDRINE'S OCTOBER 10 MEETING WITH
    LAKHDAR BRAHIMI, BOURDON (PLEASE PROTECT) REPLIED THAT
    VEDRINE WAS UP TO HIS USUAL TRICKS. HE EXPLAINED THE
    VEDRINE-BRAHIMI MEETING HAD BEEN A TETE-A-TETE AND VEDRINE
    DID NOT BOTHER TO BRIEF ANYONE IN THE MFA ABOUT THEIR
    CONVERSATION. BOURDON SAID THE ONLY THING HE KNEW CAME FROM
    ONE OF VEDRINE'S PROTOCOL OFFICERS WHO ESCORTED BRAHIMI TO
    THE MEETING. THE PROTOCOL OFFICER SAID BRAHIMI EXPRESSED THE
    VIEW THAT PAKISTAN WOULD NEED TO PLAY A ROLE IN REACHING AN
    AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE AND ZAHIR SHAH'S
    SUPPORTERS. BRAHIMI ALSO EXPRESSED CONCERNS ABOUT SECURITY
    FOR THE PERSONNEL OF UN AGENCIES AND NGOS AFTER THE U.S.
    DOES ITS JOB. BRAHIMI SAID HE SAW NO WAY TO PREVENT
    INSTABILITY AND HAD NO SUGGESTIONS REGARDING HOW TO CHANGE
    THIS. A MEMBER OF FM VEDRINE'S STAFF ADDED THAT BRAHIMI TOLD
    VEDRINE THAT HE WAS APPROCHING HIS NEW RESPONSIBILITIES WITH
    NO PRECONCEPTIONS.

    LEACH

`