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### Viewing cable 06WELLINGTON735, POLLS SHOWS BRASH SURVIVING SCANDAL, SO FAR.

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06WELLINGTON735 | 2006-09-19 04:53 | 2011-04-28 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Wellington

`

    VZCZCXRO6816
    RR RUEHNZ
    DE RUEHWL #0735/01 2620453
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 190453Z SEP 06
    FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3281
    INFO RUEHNZ/AMCONSUL AUCKLAND 0919
    RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 4539
    RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
    RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
    RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000735

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    STATE FOR D (FRITZ), EAP/FO, AND EAP/ANP
    NSC FOR VICTOR CHA
    SECDEF FOR OSD/ISD LIZ PHU
    PACOM FOR J01E/J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV NZ
    SUBJECT: POLLS SHOWS BRASH SURVIVING SCANDAL, SO FAR.

    REF A WELLINGTON 725  B WELLINGTON 721

    Summary
    -------

    ¶1. (SBU) An alleged extramarital affair has not diminished National
    Party leader Don Brash's popularity with voters, according to a
    recent poll. Kiwis seem to be registering distaste that their MPs'
    private lives are being made public. But many analysts believe that
    Brash's handling of this incident has again shown a lack of judgment
    that will almost certainly lead to a leadership challenge later in
    the year, if not the coming weeks. Meanwhile, PM Helen Clark has
    raised the public mudslinging another notch by accusing National of
    being behind rumors that her husband is gay. End Summary.

    Support remains for Brash despite allegations
    ---------------------------------------------

    ¶2. (SBU) In the first poll after Brash's alleged affair was made
    public (reftels) the Herald on Sunday Digipoll, which historically
    tilts towards Labour,  reveals that support for Brash as Prime
    Minister has actually grown 1.6% (Brash still trails Clark 51.3% to
    24% in Preferred PM polling). National also continues to lead Labour
    in the party vote, at 44.2% to 39%. Amid increased speculation that
    Brash's days as leader are numbered, the poll also reveals that
    Brash at 31.6% still leads his nearest rival, John Key at 21%, as
    Preferred National Party Leader, and 24% vs. 10.8% as Preferred
    Prime Minister.

    Brash's popularity largely linked to public sympathy
    --------------------------------------------- -------

    ¶3. (SBU) Most Kiwis are apparently more upset about the intrusion
    into Brash's private life than the allegation that he had an affair.
    The poll shows that the vast majority disapprove of MPs bringing the
    private lives of colleagues to public attention (73.8% disapprove
    vs. 20.9% who approve). With a fairly relaxed attitude towards sex,
    Kiwis seem largely unperturbed about Brash's alleged marital
    transgression, with a solid majority (67.2%) believing Brash should
    continue as National's leader.

    But hold on leadership still not secure
    ---------------------------------------

    ¶4. (SBU) The public may sympathize, but given that most kiwis still
    do not support Brash as a future PM, his caucus may not be as
    sympathetic. Brash's grip on the leadership is now considerably
    looser. According to a National Party source, caucus confidence in
    his ability to deliver an election victory is beginning to wane. The
    media continue to speculate about his possible replacements and are
    beginning to coalesce around Key. Many analysts believe that Brash's
    lapse in judgment in having an affair while publicly speaking about
    the sanctity of marriage will almost certainly clear the way for a
    leadership challenge before the 2008 election, or even much sooner.
    A National Party insider tells us that Brash should not be comforted
    by a lack of discernible maneuvering by his caucus to remove him,
    which the source attributes to senior National MPs' belief that
    voters will see an immediate challenge as opportunistic. Analyst
    Barry Gustafson imagines that "if (National) were going to move
    against Brash, the ideal time would be before Christmas, just before
    everyone goes off on holiday."

    Stakes rise as PM's private life now under scrutiny
    --------------------------------------------- ------

    ¶5. (SBU) Meanwhile, PM Clark has stepped firmly into the fray,
    pointedly asking a journalist over the weekend how Brash could now
    speak of integrity in Parliament. But mud is sticking to her as
    well: Investigate magazine, whose editor has firm right-wing
    beliefs, has openly questioned the sexuality of Clark's husband
    Peter Davis. Photos of Davis being hugged and kissed by an openly
    gay close family friend have graced the magazine's pages as well as
    that of the popular Sunday Star Time Star newspaper. A furious Clark
    blames National for the smear campaign, which Brash has strongly
    refuted.

    Comment: End Game for Brash Approaching?

    ¶6. (SBU) By Kiwi standards, the current political climate is now

    WELLINGTON 00000735  002 OF 002

    defined by unprecedented levels of tit-for-tat personal mudslinging
    and vitriol. While the personal intensity has increased, the
    relative standing of the players remains about what it has been. The
    only apparent change is the readiness of Brash's colleagues in the
    National Caucus to find a new leader at the first opportune moment.

    McCormick

`