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### Viewing cable 02ANKARA8358, AK PARTY TO FORM NEW TURKISH GOVERNMENT WITH ABDULLAH GUL AS PRIME MINISTER

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
02ANKARA8358 | 2002-11-16 11:48 | 2011-04-14 09:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Ankara

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 008358

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2012
    TAGS: PREL PGOV PINS PINR TU
    SUBJECT: AK PARTY TO FORM NEW TURKISH GOVERNMENT WITH ABDULLAH GUL AS PRIME MINISTER

    REF: A. ANKARA 8310
         ¶B. ANKARA 8165

    (U) Classified by DCM Robert Deutsch; reasons: 1.5 (b,d).

    ¶1. (U) Nov. 16 President Sezer gave the mandate to form the
    new Turkish government to AK Party number two Abdullah Gul
    (ref A), who announced he will submit his proposed cabinet
    list to Sezer Nov. 18.  We expect the government to be in
    office a week to ten days thereafter.  Gul bio in para 5.

    ¶2. (U) To underscore to both the Turkish Establishment and
    voters that he remains firmly in charge of AK Party and will
    dominate policy-making, party chairman Erdogan held a
    concurrent press conference to announce AK's one-year
    emergency action plan.  It was clear from TV coverage, which
    focused on Erdogan, not on Gul's visit to the presidency,
    that the country understands.  It is the general expectation
    that AK will pursue amendments to the constitution and other
    legal remedies to allow Erdogan to become P.M. in several
    months (ref B).

    ¶3. (U) The party program, which will become the new GOT's
    program, calls among other things for:

    --intensified efforts to reach EU standards of democracy;

    --continued close work with the IMF;

    --rapid action to combat unemployment (the number one voter
    issue in Turkey), make the budget process more efficient and
    more comprehensive (i.e., bring all but municipal budgets
    under the central budget authority);

    --transparency in Turkish governance (Erdogan pointedly
    announced that the program is downloadable from AK's web site
    "so that everyone in Turkey can see how well we stick to our
    program").

    ¶4. (C) In the follow-on question and answer period Erdogan,
    who has now departed to pay a flying visit to northern
    Cyprus, in underscoring AK's intention to be pragmatic and
    open-minded on the UN plan to reach a Cyprus settlement,
    acknowledged the need for compromise on both sides.  (Note:
    in a private meeting with us Nov. 15, AK Party number three
    and probable speaker of Parliament Bulent Arinc criticized
    the culture of nay-saying in the Turkish MFA with regard to
    Cyprus and other regional issues.  End note.)

    ¶5. (C) Gul bio:

    --Abdullah Gul was born in 1950 into a poor but pious
    working-class family in Kayseri in the Anatolian heartland
    (father was a lathe operator).  Graduated from Istanbul U.
    economics faculty.  Served as an associate professor of
    industrial engineering at Sakarya U.  Has the title of
    Associate Professor of Economics.  In the 1980's employed as
    an economic expert at the Islamic Development Bank in Jiddah.
     Entered Parliament in 1991 with the Islamist Refah Party of
    Necmettin Erbakan.  Served as a State Minister with foreign
    policy responsibilities (in effect an internal shadow FonMin
    given Refah's distrust of coalition partner and FonMin Tansu
    Ciller) in the 1996-97 Erbakan-led government.  Stayed with
    Erbakan in Fazilet Party, which was formed after Refah was
    banned, but then launched a reformist movement and  narrowly
    lost a direct challenge to Erbakan's hand-picked Fazilet
    leader Recai Kutan for the party chairmanship.  A founder of
    AK Party in 2001.  Speaks Arabic and fluent English.
    Married, three children.

    --Gul is a long-time, close contact of Embassy Ankara.  He
    has an excellent understanding of the American mind and of
    U.S. foreign policy priorities.  For years he served as a de
    facto spokesman -- judged to be reasonable and open-minded by
    Western and Islamist interlocutors -- for Refah and Fazilet
    and has been an influential and moderate voice for
    Islam-oriented politics in Turkey.  A number of long-standing
    embassy contacts has told us consistently that the
    relationship between Gul and party chairman Erdogan is
    complex.  He is loyal to Erdogan but has his own ambitions
    and occasionally in comments to us has chafed at his
    subordination to the more rough-edged Erdogan.  Both came
    through the Erbakan movement ranks together with Gul
    representing the more technocratic stream.  While Erdogan is
    far and away the most popular figure in AK, Gul has strong
    grass-roots and parliamentary support of his own and has
    built a formidable network of relations with politicians of
    all stripes, bureaucrats, academics, and journalists.

    --Gul has an obliging (mulayim) and courteous character
    stemming from his modest and very pious upbringing.  His
    faith in Islam is rock solid, as is his courage of
    convictions: Gul is no pushover.  Comfortable with
    intellectual and political give-and-take, he nevertheless
    maintains his principles and is sincere in the belief that
    Turkey must accept women in Islamic headscarves as full
    participants in society.  His wife passed the university
    entrance exam but was denied matriculation owing to her
    wearing of an Islamic headscarf; she currently has a case
    against the Turkish government on this issue before the
    European Court of Human Rights.  He also firmly believes in
    the need to redress the current imbalance in
    civilian-military relations, privately telling us
    forthrightly that if pushing this kind of democratic reform
    would be considered "destabilizing" by the Kemalist
    Establishment, "then so be it."  This kind of comment,
    combined with Gul's knowledge of the system and his smooth
    manner, leads some Kemalist circles to fear that he would
    succeed in implementing an Islamist agenda effectively.  Gul
    has the serene but focused temperament (huzur) similar to
    that of late president Turgut Ozal.  At the same time he is
    untainted by the corruption surrounding the Ozal family and
    government.
    PEARSON

`